Intel shares surged more than 7% Tuesday morning, climbing to $97.93 as of 9:41 a.m. Eastern time, as semiconductor stocks broadly rallied ahead of a highly anticipated earnings report from rival Advanced Micro Devices due after the market closes.
Tuesday’s gains build on a volatile several weeks for Intel, whose stock has swung sharply between rallies and steep pullbacks even as the company’s underlying turnaround story, led by Chief Executive Lip-Bu Tan, continues to unfold. Shares closed Monday at $91.00, up a modest 0.89%, before extending gains further in Tuesday’s session as broader risk appetite returned to the chip sector.
A wild recent stretch for Intel shares
Intel’s stock has been on an extraordinary run over the trailing 12 months, at one point posting gains exceeding 350% to 460% depending on the measurement window, as investors bought into the company’s turnaround narrative following a brutal stretch in 2025 that saw shares hit a 52-week low near $19. The stock later climbed as high as $142.35 before pulling back sharply in recent weeks amid broader semiconductor sector jitters.
Much of that recent volatility traces back to late July, when a disappointing earnings report from Samsung triggered a wave of selling across chip stocks tied to concerns about PC and server chip demand. Intel shares fell roughly 9% to 10% on multiple occasions during that stretch, at one point ranking among the worst performers in the S&P 500 on a single trading day as investors reassessed the broader chip sector’s near-term outlook.
Intel’s own second-quarter earnings, released July 24, initially failed to stabilize the stock despite topping expectations. The company reported revenue of $16.1 billion, up 25% year-over-year and ahead of the high end of its own guidance of $14.8 billion, while also guiding third-quarter revenue to roughly $16.3 billion, comfortably above analyst consensus estimates of $15.1 billion. Despite the beat, CNBC commentator Jim Cramer described the stock’s subsequent decline as “some of the most hideous selling” he had witnessed, attributing the drop to broader anxiety around AI infrastructure spending rather than any specific issue with Intel’s results. Cramer has since argued that Intel stock “belongs at $110,” well above where shares have traded in recent sessions.
Analysts remain divided on valuation
Wall Street’s views on Intel remain notably split heading into Tuesday’s rally. Rosenblatt raised its price target on the stock to $65 from $50 but maintained a Sell rating, arguing the stock’s dramatic run has outpaced its underlying fundamentals. That stands in sharp contrast to the broader Street consensus price target, which sits closer to $112, reflecting continued optimism from other analysts about Intel’s foundry business and its expanding role in AI infrastructure.
Susquehanna analyst Christopher Rolland has maintained a more neutral stance but raised his price target to $115 from $80 in recent weeks, citing stronger-than-anticipated server CPU demand, while KeyBanc’s John Vinh has taken a more bullish position, reiterating a Buy rating with a price target of $155.
Foundry progress and AI demand fuel optimism
Much of the bullish case for Intel centers on the ongoing revival of its foundry business, which has shown signs of improvement after years of losses and delayed manufacturing milestones. Intel’s foundry segment generated $5.4 billion in revenue during the first quarter, a 20% sequential increase driven by higher production of advanced chips, with external foundry revenue reaching $174 million during the same period. While the segment remains unprofitable, losses have moderated, and management has said it expects further operating improvement in the coming quarters.
Intel has also continued expanding its advanced packaging business, recently deepening a technology partnership tied to its EMIB packaging platform, an area where rival Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing has reportedly been developing competing technology aimed at the same high-performance computing and AI chip market. Separately, research firm Omdia has projected global semiconductor revenue will surge 94.1% year-over-year in 2026, citing industry-wide bottlenecks in high-bandwidth memory production, a forecast that has added to broader bullish sentiment across chip stocks including Intel.
A rally tied to the broader market, not just Intel
Tuesday’s jump in Intel shares appeared closely tied to broader strength across the semiconductor sector rather than any single Intel-specific announcement. AMD shares also climbed sharply in Tuesday’s session ahead of its own earnings report, while the broader market extended a multi-day rally driven by easing tensions in the Middle East, falling oil prices, and a string of strong corporate earnings reports from companies including Caterpillar and Palantir Technologies. That supportive macro backdrop has helped lift previously beaten-down chip names, including Intel, even as some analysts continue to debate whether recent price gains fully reflect the execution risk still facing the company’s multi-year turnaround plan.
Government backing remains a factor
Intel’s rise over the past year has also been shaped in part by direct financial support from the U.S. government, which took a stake in the company last year as part of a broader push to maintain domestic semiconductor manufacturing capacity. That backing, combined with new customer commitments from companies including Google and reported discussions involving Apple and Nvidia around potential foundry partnerships, has continued to feature prominently in the bull case for Intel shares even as the stock’s underlying earnings power remains a subject of debate among analysts.
With AMD’s second-quarter results due after Tuesday’s closing bell, investors will be watching closely for any read-through to Intel and the broader chip sector, particularly around AI infrastructure demand and server CPU competition between the two companies. Given Intel’s history of sharp single-session swings in both directions over the past year, analysts caution that Tuesday’s rally, like the sector-wide selloffs that preceded it, may prove more reflective of shifting market sentiment than a definitive signal about the company’s longer-term execution on its turnaround strategy.
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