The United States and Iran traded a fresh wave of strikes over the weekend, with Washington and Tehran issuing directly conflicting declarations over whether the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical oil shipping corridors, remains open to commercial traffic.
The U.S. struck Iran for the third time in a week, prompting retaliatory attacks on at least five Arab nations after Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps struck a Cyprus-flagged container ship transiting the strait on July 11, setting it ablaze and leaving 23 crew members affected. In response, U.S. Central Command launched a significant missile assault on Iranian military targets overnight into Sunday, saying it had struck approximately 140 sites, targeting “missile and drone sites, naval capabilities, ammunition storage facilities, communication networks, and coastal surveillance locations.” According to Iranian state media, the strikes also hit Qeshm, an island near the strait, though officials said they targeted only military installations and caused no casualties.
Iran responded early Sunday with drone and missile attacks on American allies across the region, including Kuwait, Jordan, Qatar, Bahrain and Oman. So far, only minor damage has been reported and no casualties confirmed from those retaliatory strikes.
Following the exchange, Iran’s Persian Gulf Strait Authority, an entity Tehran established during the war with the U.S., declared the waterway closed. “Passage through the Strait of Hormuz is currently not possible,” the authority said on X, blaming “recent illegal movements of the United States military forces.” The authority added that “as soon as stability and calm are restored, all requests will be reviewed based on the schedule, and the necessary permits will be issued.”
U.S. Central Command flatly rejected that characterization. “The Strait of Hormuz is open to all vessels seeking to lawfully transit the international waterway,” CENTCOM said in a statement posted to social media. “Iran does not control the strait. Traffic is flowing.” President Donald Trump reiterated that position in a Sunday interview with NBC’s “Meet the Press,” saying that as far as he was concerned, the strait remained open. Trump separately told CNN by phone that the U.S. had hit Iran “very hard” overnight, adding that the two sides had been close to a deal just hours before Iran’s latest attack on shipping. “They were giving up everything, and then all of a sudden, two hours after that, they hit a ship with a drone. These people, there is something wrong with them,” Trump said.
Independent shipping data illustrates the practical impact of the standoff, even amid the dueling official narratives. According to Windward Maritime Intelligence, there were just 21 commercial vessel transits through the strait on July 11, sharply down from the roughly 140 daily transits recorded before wartime closures began. The Joint Maritime Information Center, a global monitoring body, reported Sunday that it remained possible to transit the strait’s southern route, though data from Lloyd’s List Intelligence found no large vessel above 10,000 deadweight tonnage had crossed the so-called Southern Highway, the Oman-hugging shipping lane, while broadcasting its location since July 7, though the firm said at least two ships were believed to have crossed with their tracking systems switched off.
According to the IMF’s PortWatch tracking system, commercial transit through the strait had fallen to just 39% of pre-crisis volume as of its most recent published count, with 34 vessels crossing against a typical 88 per day. Given Iran’s renewed closure declaration and the U.S. military’s insistence that ships continue transiting, analysts have cautioned that PortWatch’s weekly count likely understates the current level of disruption in either direction.
Maritime security analysts have warned that Iran retains meaningful capability to disrupt shipping across the broader Gulf region regardless of the semantic dispute over the strait’s formal status. “Iran has the ability to strike ships across the Persian Gulf, through the Strait of Hormuz, and out into the Gulf of Oman,” maritime analyst Bradford told Al Jazeera. Despite the latest turmoil, oil prices had largely held steady through the end of last week following several days of gains, though Brent crude has since climbed further, with tracking site Strait of Hormuz Live reporting the benchmark at $79.29 per barrel and a 4.3% rise over the preceding 24 hours as of Monday.
The dispute over the strait’s status caps a rapid unraveling of a ceasefire memorandum that Iran and the U.S. had signed earlier this summer, one that had specifically called for reopening the strait as a key condition of easing tensions. Iran had originally closed the waterway in early March following U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian political and military targets, a closure that at the height of the earlier conflict phase reduced traffic through the corridor to as few as two tankers a day, according to Al Jazeera. Roughly 20% of the world’s oil supply typically transits the strait each year, and any sustained disruption has historically sent energy prices sharply higher.
At least 20% of global oil shipments pass through the narrow waterway between Iran and Oman under normal conditions, with roughly half of that traffic consisting of oil tankers moving an estimated 20 million barrels per day. Data tracking company Kpler had noted resilience in strait traffic just a week earlier, reporting 108 verified crossings over a three-day span in early July, though that recovery has since been erased by the latest round of hostilities.
Independent monitoring service Strait of Hormuz Live currently rates the crisis pressure index in the region at 86, described as “extreme,” while its 30-day escalation forecast sits at 61, or “high,” reflecting acute near-term stress against somewhat more tempered longer-term expectations. Despite the sharp escalation, the service noted that Iran and Oman agreed Saturday to continue technical talks specifically addressing Hormuz navigation, according to Iranian state media, suggesting at least one diplomatic channel remains active even amid the ongoing military exchanges.
As of Monday, the fundamental disagreement between Washington and Tehran over the strait’s operational status showed no signs of resolution, with both governments continuing to issue contradictory public statements even as independent shipping data suggests commercial traffic through the corridor remains severely constrained compared with pre-conflict norms. The situation remains fluid, with further developments expected as both sides continue to assess the aftermath of the weekend’s strikes.
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