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Wall Street Brunch: Jobs And More AI Litmus Test Earnings (null:US10Y)
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Download this episode on Apple Podcasts/Spotify or listen below:
August’s jobs report could cement a September rate hike. (0:17) Broadcom earnings give another look at the AI spending. (1:24) John Ternus takes the reins from Tim Cook at Apple. (1:56)
The following is an abridged transcript:
This week brings the August jobs report, which could be crucial for the Federal Reserve’s next move.
Following what traders saw as a hawkish Jackson Hole speech from new Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh, odds of a quarter-point September rate hike have jumped to 57% from 40%, with an 18% chance of another hike in October.
Economists expect a modest rise in August nonfarm payrolls of 55K, with the unemployment rate holding at 4.1%.
Wells Fargo economists say alternative indicators “suggest job growth has stabilized, rather than continuing to deteriorate.”
“Hiring measures from regional Fed surveys have improved in recent months, small business hiring plans have perked back up, and job openings have leveled off. Meanwhile, initial jobless claims remain near multi-decade lows, underscoring that layoffs are still contained.”
SA Analyst Damir Tokic expects a strong August jobs report to “cement” a quarter-point rate hike.
“Warsh clearly stated in his Jackson Hole speech that the labor market is strong, as the unemployment rate at 4.1% is very low by historical standards,” he said. “The main implication for monetary policy is that the labor market is fine, thus, the focus shifts entirely to inflation.”
On the earnings front, Broadcom (AVGO) will give further insight into AI spending when it reports Wednesday. Analysts expect EPS of $3.24 on revenue of $29.4B.
SA analyst Dustin Quasney says the stock faces elevated near-term downside risk ahead of earnings due to high expectations set by Nvidia’s recent results.
For those long the stock, he recommends covered calls that prioritize downside protection.
Here’s how the rest of the earnings calendar shapes up:
On Tuesday, Palo Alto Networks (PANW), Dell (DELL), and Medtronic (MDT) report.
Snowflake (SNOW) weighs in on Wednesday.
Ciena (CIEN) and Zscaler (ZS) are up Thursday.
Also this week, on Tuesday, John Ternus will step into the role of Apple (AAPL) CEO, taking over from Tim Cook, aka Tim Apple, who has led the tech giant since 2011. Cook will move into the role of executive chairman.
SA analyst Envision Research says they are confident the new leadership will preserve the company’s “well-established earning power and shareholder return mechanisms.”
They also see “additional opportunities for Ternus to capitalize on the vast installed (customer) base and to continue growing the base with his deep understanding of the company’s various hardware lineups.”
And Tesla (TSLA) plans to hold an invite-only Cybercab launch event Thursday in Austin, Texas, that will also be livestreamed.
The compact two-seater is designed without a steering wheel or pedals, with fully autonomous passenger transport as its sole purpose. Reports indicate riders may be able to request a Cybercab through Tesla’s existing Robotaxi app in Austin as early as next week.
In the news this weekend, Nvidia (NVDA) CEO Jensen Huang is a notable omission from Time Magazine’s newly released list of the 100 most influential people in artificial intelligence for 2026.
On a list featuring SpaceX (SPCX) CEO Elon Musk, OpenAI (OPENAI) CEO Sam Altman and Anthropic (ANTHRO) CEO Dario Amodei, Huang’s absence raised eyebrows.
Huang was included in the three previous TIME100 AI editions.
And for income investors, Northrop Grumman (NOC) goes ex-dividend Monday, paying out on Sept. 16.
Nike (NKE) and McDonald’s (MCD) go ex-dividend Tuesday. Nike pays out on Oct. 1, and McDonald’s pays out on Sept. 16.
Qualcomm (QCOM) goes ex-dividend Thursday, with a Sept. 24 payout date.
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