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Which Musk Stock Is the Better Buy in 2026?

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Tesla CEO Elon Musk is now the world's wealthiest person

With SpaceX now trading publicly alongside Tesla for the first time in history, investors face a genuinely new decision: choosing between two Elon Musk-led companies that occupy very different points in their corporate life cycles, carry sharply different valuations relative to their current profitability, and may even end up merged into a single entity within the next year. Here’s what the numbers actually show.

Where the Two Stocks Stand Right Now

Tesla and SpaceX stock price comparisons are now a real public-market exercise, since SpaceX listed under the ticker SPCX on June 12, 2026. Tesla is a mature public stock; SpaceX is a newly listed public stock with fresh IPO momentum. The two companies attract similarly high investor attention, but they are being judged on entirely different criteria. Tesla is being judged on execution and margins. SpaceX is being judged on IPO demand, scarcity value, and whether its public valuation can be supported by long-term fundamentals.

That distinction showed up clearly in trading data following the listing. On June 16, 2026, Tesla’s stock experienced a decline of 1.6%, closing at $404.66. Meanwhile, SpaceX saw a significant surge, increasing nearly 5% to $201.80 per share. The market capitalization of SpaceX has now surpassed $2.6 trillion, compared to Tesla’s nearly $1.8 trillion.

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The Valuation Gap Surprised Many Observers

Perhaps the most striking fact in this comparison is that SpaceX, a company with no history as a public stock until just over a week ago, has already surpassed Tesla in total market value. The targeted SpaceX valuation, somewhere between $1.75 trillion and $2 trillion, was notable because it would put SpaceX above Tesla on day one of trading. That range proved conservative — the rocket and satellite specialist’s market cap has since climbed well beyond even that ambitious target.

So how does a company that lost approximately $4.9 billion last year leapfrog an automaker generating more than $22 billion in quarterly revenue? The answer has less to do with rockets than with what the rockets put into orbit — namely, the combination of Starlink’s growing satellite internet business and the broader artificial intelligence ambitions now consolidated within the company following its merger with xAI.

Tesla’s Case: Profitability Pressure, but a Pivot Toward AI

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Tesla’s bull case increasingly rests on a transformation story rather than its traditional electric vehicle business. Tesla’s soaring capital expenditures are projected to yield only $2.06 in earnings per share in 2026, resulting in a price-to-earnings ratio above 160 — a figure highlighting the market’s heavy reliance on future growth rather than current profitability.

That capital spending reflects a deliberate strategic shift. Tesla’s first-quarter 2026 results showed negative free cash flow as the company increased capital expenditure toward a guided $25 billion for the year, primarily for AI compute and robotaxi fleet infrastructure. First-quarter revenue rose 16% to $22.4 billion, but vehicle deliveries of 358,023 missed expectations, with management telling investors the company’s near-term focus is shifting away from pure vehicle volume growth.

The company also weathered its first full year of declining annual revenue. The electric vehicle and energy company just emerged from its first year of annual revenue decline, with 2025 sales falling for the first time in its history as a public company — a notable setback that has pushed analysts toward valuing Tesla increasingly on its autonomous driving and robotics ambitions rather than its traditional car business.

SpaceX’s Case: Scarcity, Starlink, and Unproven AI Bets

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SpaceX’s bull case centers on different fundamentals entirely. SpaceX’s newly consolidated artificial intelligence segment, which folds in xAI following a February merger that valued the combined entity at $1.25 trillion, lost $6.4 billion in 2025 and another $2.5 billion in the first quarter. The company has said it expects to begin deploying orbital AI compute satellites “as early as 2028” — a timeline that places much of its AI ambitions several years into the future.

Critically, only a small fraction of SpaceX’s total shares are currently available for public trading, a dynamic that has amplified price swings in both directions. The successful IPO raised $75 billion and achieved a market cap exceeding $2.1 trillion, with less than 5% of shares available for trading, reflecting both strong insider confidence and intense market demand for the limited float available.

One analyst offered a blunt assessment of the disconnect between SpaceX’s current price and its underlying financials. The numbers at $200 per share do not independently justify the current price. SpaceX lost $4.9 billion in 2025 and $4.28 billion in Q1 2026 alone. Its only profitable segment, Starlink, is excellent, but even a generous standalone valuation for Starlink produces a fraction of the current market cap.

The Merger Wildcard

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Perhaps the single biggest variable hanging over any comparison between the two stocks is the possibility that they may not remain separate investments for much longer. Wedbush analyst Dan Ives has put the probability of a confirmed Tesla-SpaceX merger at 80 to 90% for the first half of 2027 — a scenario that, while not confirmed and still firmly in the rumor category, has been treated as a live possibility by enough analysts that it belongs in any honest accounting of what could change the investment thesis for either stock.

Separate commentary has noted that a potential SpaceX-Tesla merger, while speculative, continues to attract institutional attention given SpaceX’s target valuation of approximately $1.75 trillion — a figure that, if a merger were to occur, could meaningfully reshape the combined entity’s overall risk and growth profile in ways that are difficult to predict from today’s vantage point.

Analyst Price Targets Reflect Genuine Disagreement

Wall Street’s formal coverage of both stocks shows a wide range of opinions, reflecting genuine uncertainty about how each company’s specific growth bets will play out. Third-party Tesla stock forecasts range from $364 to $600 as of early June 2026, reflecting disagreement over the pace and profitability of the company’s transition from a pure electric vehicle manufacturer toward AI and robotics.

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For SpaceX, one valuation model places the company’s GF Value, a fair-value estimate, at $287.69 against a current trading price of $404.66 for Tesla specifically — suggesting Tesla itself may be roughly 41% overvalued by that particular methodology, even before factoring SpaceX into the comparison.

What “Both” Would Mean for an Investor

For investors considering holding both stocks rather than choosing one, it’s worth recognizing that both companies remain deeply intertwined through Musk’s leadership, overlapping technology bets in AI and robotics, and the looming possibility of an eventual corporate combination. That overlap means an investor holding both stocks is not necessarily achieving the diversification that holding two genuinely unrelated companies would typically provide — a consideration worth weighing given how closely both stocks’ near-term performance may end up tracking similar underlying catalysts, from AI infrastructure spending to Musk’s own public statements and strategic decisions.

The Bottom Line

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There is no universal answer to which stock represents the better buy, and the dramatic disagreement among professional analysts — with Tesla price targets spanning from $364 to $600, and SpaceX’s valuation already exceeding even the high end of its own pre-IPO targets — reflects how genuinely unresolved the investment cases for both companies remain. Tesla offers a longer public track record but faces real questions about near-term profitability amid its costly AI and robotics pivot. SpaceX offers explosive growth potential tied to Starlink and orbital AI infrastructure but carries a valuation that, by several analysts’ own admission, isn’t yet supported by current financial results.

As with any investment decision, particularly one involving two stocks this volatile and this closely tied to a single individual’s leadership and public statements, it’s worth doing your own research, considering your personal risk tolerance and time horizon, and consulting a qualified financial advisor before making a decision — this overview is meant to lay out the facts and competing perspectives, not to tell you what to do with your money.

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The importance of the co-operatives and mutuals to the Welsh economy

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Chief executive of Cwmpas Bethan Webber says this year’s co-operatives fortnight is a moment to celebrate the businesses already showing what is possible

Chief executive of Cwmpas Bethan Webber

.People’s experience of the economy is complex and often disconnected from headline growth. Economies can expand while communities remain fragile. Investment may flow in, but little wealth stays local.

Jobs can be created without giving workers real security, a meaningful voice or a genuine stake in success.

That is why during this year’s co-operatives fortnight(which runs to July 3rd) , we are focusing on a different economic vision for Wales: one that has community wealth building at the heart.

It asks a simple but powerful question: how can we support all communities and places to create wealth, and ensure that more of it stays in that place, circulates through local communities, and benefits the people who live and work there?

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It is not a slogan, and it is not a rejection of wider investment. Foreign direct investment will continue to matter and be a catalyst for growth. But if we want a more resilient, productive and inclusive economy, we also need to pay closer attention to local enterprise, democratic ownership and fair work.

In other words, community wealth building is about redesigning the architecture of the Welsh economy. Who owns businesses? Where do profits go? How are public contracts used? Are local firms supported to grow? Do workers share in success? Are communities simply consulted, or are they active participants?

These questions are at the heart of the co-operative movement but are relevant beyond it too.

They matter to entrepreneurs who want to build Welsh businesses across the board. They matter to public bodies who want more value from spending. They matter to investors who understand that resilient local economies are good places to do business. They matter to workers, families and communities who want growth to feel real in their everyday lives.

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Wales is a small nation with strong communities, a proud tradition of co-operation, and enormous economic potential. But we also face long-standing challenges, not least stubborn poverty, low productivity, regional inequality, and a loss of wealth from local economies.

Community wealth building gives us a practical way of responding to those challenges. It asks us to move from an economic development model that too heavily relies on attracting activity from outside, towards one that also grows capacity from within.

That means supporting Welsh entrepreneurs. It means helping locally-rooted businesses scale. It means using procurement to strengthen Welsh supply chains. And crucially for us at Cwmpas, it means backing co-operative and social business models that also keep ownership and decision-making closer to the people and places where economic value is created.

Co-operatives, employee-owned businesses and social enterprises are central to this because they change the relationship between business success and community benefit.

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The co-operative and mutual Economy 2025 report identifies 519 co-operatives in Wales, with around £500m in income. Wales leads the UK for co-operative new-starts per person. In the wider social economy, Wales now has more than 3,100 social businesses, with a turnover of up to £5.7bn each year and employing up to 68,000 people – with our mapping data showing that 84% pay the Real Living Wage to all staff.

A powerful example of what success looks like is Dulas, a worker-owned co-operative based in Machynlleth. Dulas exports solar-powered vaccine refrigerators to more than 80 countries, helping protect life-saving vaccines in some of the hardest-to-reach communities in the world. In 2024, it was named SME Exporter of the Year at the Wales Business Awards.

This shows what co-operative success can look like – locally rooted and globally relevant. It proves that Welsh-owned enterprises can innovate, export, create skilled jobs and make a huge impact without losing their connection to place.

Since 2020, Wales has seen the number of employee-owned businesses grow from 34 to more than 100. That growth shows what can happen when a clear ambition is matched with specialist support and market development. Instead of successful Welsh firms being sold to distant owners when the owner is reaching retirement, it keeps them rooted and anchored in Wales. It protects jobs, shares wealth, and supports passionate entrepreneurs to leave a legacy in the places that mean so much to them.

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We can already see the benefits in businesses such as BIC Innovation, which has seen its employee numbers more than triple since becoming employee-owned.

We have a strong platform for growth, but Wales has not yet fully realised its co-operative potential. A community wealth building approach can make these questions central to economic policy.

As part of a new and integrated approach, it would complement other economic development, improving the Welsh economy from the bottom-up, in a way that strengthens local ownership, builds Welsh supply chains, improves job quality and gives communities a greater stake. That is the rebalancing Wales needs.

Cwmpas believes this is now one of the most important economic opportunities facing Wales. We need to move from celebrating individual examples to building the infrastructure that allows many more to emerge, consistently and across the country.

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That means specialist business support and market development. It means better access to finance, stronger links between public procurement and local enterprise, and a clearer role for co-operative and employee-owned models in national economic strategy.

This year’s c-operatives fortnight is a moment to celebrate the businesses already showing what is possible. But it should also be a moment to think bigger. If we want growth that lasts, wealth that stays, and communities that have real power over their economic future, community wealth building must become central to how Wales thinks about prosperity.

The task now is to turn that principle into practice.

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Record defence export deal puts Australia on the radar

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Record defence export deal puts Australia on the radar

Australia has struck its largest defence export deal under a $2.5 billion agreement to provide Canada with world-leading radar technology.

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UPS to invest $48 million in cold facilities amid GLP-1 boom

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UPS to invest $48 million in cold facilities amid GLP-1 boom

United Parcel Service (UPS) trucks are parked at a UPS drop yard on Oct. 28, 2025 in Vernon, California.

Mario Tama | Getty Images

United Parcel Service is investing $48 million in 27 temperature‑controlled facilities as the industry sees a boom in healthcare logistics, CNBC has learned exclusively.

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The facilities, located across the Americas, Europe and Asia, are optimized for moving around shipments that need to be kept at certain temperatures. The company said the investment will help it stay ahead of a boom in medicines and pharmaceuticals — like some GLP-1s — that have to be kept at certain temperatures by improving speed and end-to-end chain of custody.

“Our global cross-dock facilities strengthen our end-to-end cold-chain capabilities to ensure critical treatments are delivered safely and reliably to patients around the world,” said Kate Gutmann, UPS’ president of international, healthcare and supply chain solutions. “This effort – and all of our work in healthcare logistics – extends from a deep understanding that we’re doing more than moving packages.”

The demand for temperature-sensitive biologics is projected to grow at an 8.3% compound annual growth rate through 2033 and reach a market value of roughly $39.1 billion, according to Growth Market Reports. Many new medicines are required to be stored at specific temperatures to maintain efficacy, UPS said, making healthcare logistics more crucial than before.

According to the World Health Organization, up to 50% of global vaccines are wasted every year, with a significant portion of that coming from cold-chain storage issues.

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“These investments reflect our commitment to continue to align our leading end-to-end supply chain to protect innovative treatments and diagnostics, supporting better patient outcomes,” UPS Healthcare President John Bolla said in a statement.

UPS’ move comes as the industry overall has seen growing investments in the space, especially with the meteoric rise of GLP-1 drugs. Medicines like Novo Nordisk‘s Wegovy and Ozempic require strict refrigeration and temperature control during transit. A November KFF poll found that 1 in 8 Americans are taking GLP-1s.

UPS CEO Carol Tomé said on the company’s first-quarter earnings call in April that healthcare remains one of the company’s top priorities and biggest areas of growth.

“Our global healthcare portfolio has gained market share every year since 2021,” she said on the call. “And in the first quarter of this year, we generated our first $3 billion healthcare revenue quarter ever, with all three of our segments delivering year-over-year revenue growth.”

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Tomé added that UPS is committed to continuing to “lean into that space in a meaningful way.”

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Summit Therapeutics: High-Volatility, Catalyst-Driven Binary Bet (NASDAQ:SMMT)

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Summit Therapeutics: High-Volatility, Catalyst-Driven Binary Bet (NASDAQ:SMMT)

This article was written by

I would describe myself as a barbell investor focused on two ends of the risk spectrum: relatively safe, income-generating investments on one side, and high-risk, high upside opportunities—primarily binary healthcare and biotech bets—on the other. Professionally, I work as an R&D researcher in the pharmaceutical industry. Combined with my background in economics and self-training in finance, this provides me with unique perspective when evaluating biotech companies. My research spans multiple dimensions of the sector, including platform technologies, IP and freedom-to-operate considerations, mechanistic feasibility, competitive landscapes, binary clinical trial readouts and corporate financials. As an individual investor, I place significant emphasis on valuation, risk management and capital allocation. On the income-investing side of the portfolio, I actively follow dividend paying stock picks, including preferred shares, REITs, BDCs and option-based income ETFs. The objective is to build a durable stream of cash flow that can support moonshot bets on the other side of the barbell. Through my writing on Seeking Alpha, I aim to share independent, research-driven investment ideas from both ends of this barbell approach. My goal is to combine scientific insight, fundamental analysis and risk management to encourage disciplined trading and develop well-grounded investment thesis.

Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of SMMT either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha’s Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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Form 4 The York Water Company For: 22 June

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Form 4 The York Water Company For: 22 June

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The long tail of Trump’s trade agenda

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The long tail of Trump’s trade agenda

Industry experts say the latest proposals are designed to outlast court challenges, political cycles and administrations. 

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Schwebel Baking set to shut down

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Schwebel Baking set to shut down

Longtime commercial baker to wind down operations over the summer.

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Occidental Offers A 25% Upside At $70 Oil

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Occidental Offers A 25% Upside At $70 Oil

Occidental Offers A 25% Upside At $70 Oil

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Amazon Prime Day expected to drive $26.3 billion in online sales

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Amazon Prime Day expected to drive $26.3 billion in online sales

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Alan Greenspan, architect of the modern American economy, dies aged 100

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Alan Greenspan, architect of the modern American economy, dies aged 100

As chairman of the Federal Reserve, Alan Greenspan became the world’s most high-profile banker.

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