For India, which relies heavily on crude imports, the spike poses a serious challenge if the conflict in West Asia continues and oil prices stay elevated. VK Vijayakumar of Geojit said markets will increasingly start pricing in the broader economic impact of the surge in crude. He also cautioned that inflationary pressures are likely to rise regardless of whether the higher fuel costs are passed on to consumers.

Vijayakumar added that the biggest uncertainty at the moment is the duration of the conflict. This lack of clarity could also influence foreign investor behaviour. He noted that foreign institutional investors have once again turned aggressive sellers in Indian markets after a brief period of buying in February.Meanwhile, Qatar’s Energy Minister Saad al-Kaabi told the Financial Times that global oil prices could surge as high as $150 per barrel if the conflict in the Middle East intensifies and disrupts energy supplies from the Gulf region.Should you buy oil on MCX?

According to Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, higher timeframes continue to indicate strong bullish momentum, with prices holding firmly above key moving averages and important support levels. He said a decisive move above Rs 9,300 could push prices further towards Rs 9,500 to Rs 9,650. Immediate support is placed in the Rs 8,800 to Rs 8,500 range, while a sustained fall below Rs 8,400 could weaken the short-term trend and drag prices towards Rs 8,000. Stronger structural support is seen around Rs 7,000 to Rs 7,200. Overall, the outlook remains constructive if the upside breakout continues.

Aamir Makda, Commodity and Currency Analyst at Choice Broking, said U.S. WTI crude oil opened with a gap up at $98 and is currently trading around $115, reflecting a rise of nearly 26%. He noted that this marks the biggest jump in crude prices since 2020, largely driven by disruptions in the Middle East. Iran’s move to block the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend has heightened concerns around regional oil supply. He added that the sharp rise in the U.S. dollar, which is now trading above the 99 level, has also influenced crude price movements. Meanwhile, countries such as Iraq, Kuwait and Qatar have reported a decline in overall oil production.

Key support to be considered at Rs 9,000-Rs 8,127 respectively. On the other hand, immediate resistance would be at Rs 10,500 and breakout of this level will accelerate upside momentum in Crude oil price towards 11,300 in upcoming sessions.”
The ongoing war, which began on February 28, could leave consumers and businesses worldwide dealing with elevated fuel costs for several weeks or even months. Even if the conflict ends soon, suppliers may continue to face challenges such as damaged infrastructure, logistical disruptions and heightened risks to shipping in the region.
Domestic brokerage JM Financial said that every $1 increase in crude prices raises India’s annual import bill by roughly $2 billion. Prolonged tensions could elevate logistics and marine insurance costs, disrupt Gulf shipping routes and widen pressure on the trade balance. The INR faces a near-term depreciation bias, with potential RBI intervention via foreign exchange reserves. The transmission mechanism is evident: higher crude prices increase inflation risks; elevated inflation pushes bond yields higher; and rising yields compress equity valuation multiples.
(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)

BSE Index Services, a wholly owned subsidiary of BSE, today announced the launch of the BSE SmallCap 500 Index and four new factor indices based on the BSE SmallCap 500 Index universe.

The BSE SmallCap 500 Universe Factor Indices are reconstituted quarterly, have a base value of 1,000, and the first value date is September 19, 2005, along with the additional screening of 90% Stock Trading Frequency.

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The indices launched today include – BSE Smallcap 500, which is a combination of the constituents of the BSE 250 Smallcap Index and the BSE 250 Microcap Index, BSE Smallcap 500 Quality 50, which measures the performance of the 50 highest quality companies in the BSE Smallcap 500 Index, based on their quality scores.

The BSE Smallcap 500 Momentum 50 tracks the performance of the 50 companies in the BSE Smallcap 500 Index with the strongest persistence in relative performance, based on momentum scores. The BSE Smallcap 500 Low Volatility 50 monitors the 50 least volatile companies in the index, while the BSE Smallcap 500 Enhanced Value 50 measures the performance of the 50 companies with the most attractive valuations, based on value scores.

“The launch of the BSE SmallCap 500 Universe Factor Indices marks an important expansion of our factor-based index offerings. This index family provides transparent and rules-based benchmarks designed to capture key equity factors across India’s Small-Cap segment by incorporating distinct factor strategies such as Quality, Value, Momentum and Low Volatility,” said Ashutosh Singh, MD and CEO of BSE Index Services, highlighting the significance of these indices.
These indices aim to support product innovation and offer asset managers and institutional investors efficient tools to access differentiated small-cap factor exposures within the broader equity market,” Singh further said.Also Read | Samir Arora-backed Helios Flexi Cap Fund adds Tata Motors, exits REC and 2 others

These new indices can be used for running passive strategies such as ETFs and Index Funds. It can also be used for benchmarking of PMS strategies, MF schemes and fund portfolios. Investors can now access a broader spectrum of market opportunities, further enriching their investment strategies with this latest addition to BSE’s suite of indices.

The 1.5 gigwatt project from Ocean Winds would straddle both Welsh and English waters in the Celtic Sea

A leasing agreement for a huge floating offshore windfarm in the Celtic Sea, which would straddle both English and Welsh waters, has been agreed. Ocean Winds, the 50-50 joint venture between Spanish firm EDPR Renewables and French venture ENGIE, has entered into an agreement with the Crown Estate for a 1.5 gigawatt project.

It comes after last year Norwegian energy venture Equinor and Gwynt Glas – a joint venture between EDF power solutions and Irish Government-owned ESB – entered into lease deals with owner of the seabed for their respective 1.5 gigawatt floating wind farm schemes.

The project from Gwynt Glas is solely in Welsh waters off the coast of Pembrokeshire, while the scheme from Equinor is located wholly in English waters. The leasing deals were struck under the Crown Estates’s offshore wind leasing round five.

A bidder for the site in both Welsh and English waters initially failed to materialise following a competitive bid process, which led the Crown Estate to re-engage with the marketplace and the resulting agreement with Ocean Winds.

READ MORE: The verdict on the promise of £14bn of rail investment in Wales over the long-termREAD MORE: We shouldn’t get hung up on firms being Welsh-owned but those with potential for growth

Once all three are operational, which will be in the mid 2030s, they will have combined capacity for 4.5 gigawatt of clean energy that would generate the electricity needs for more than four million homes and create more than 5,000 direct and supply chain jobs – creating a £1.5bn economic boost.

However, it is not clear how many supply jobs will be Wales and UK-based. All three operators will also be seeking contract for difference support, which will ensure energy produced will be commercially viable, from the UK Government. Turbines could be as high as the Shard building in London at 300 metres on floating platforms similar in size to a football pitch. They will be anchored to the seabed via huge chains.

In its Senedd Election manifesto Reform said it would block all new onshore and offshore renewable projects in Wales. The Celtic Sea projects are not a devolved planning matter, so would require Reform to form the next Westminster Government to implement.

Ocean Winds is a global leader in floating technology and delivered the world’s first semi-submersible floating wind farm, WindFloat Atlantic, in Portugal in 2020. It also delivered fixed bottom offshore wind in the UK including Moray East and Moray West.

Ocean Winds will now focus on developing its project designs, delivering onshore and offshore site surveys, Environmental Impact Assessments (EIA), public engagement and securing planning consents.

Julia Rose, head of offshore wind at the Crown Estate, said: “Round five is such an exciting opportunity to establish an innovative new technology at commercial scale in the UK, supporting many new jobs whilst also contributing to our national energy security and clean energy transition.

“Ocean Winds entering into an agreement for lease for their site in the Celtic Sea is a significant moment and testament to the attractiveness of the UK’s world-leading offshore wind sector. We’re delighted they have achieved this milestone and look forward to working closely with them as they begin their development stage.”

Adam Morrison, UK country manager at Ocean Winds said: “Signing the agreement for lease for the Celtic Sea site demonstrates our commitment to the development of commercial scale floating offshore wind in the UK. Over the coming years we will begin early-stage development work, engaging with local stakeholders to identify opportunities to deliver lasting benefits to our local communities whilst supporting the UK’s energy security and net zero objectives.”

Michael Shanks, Minister for Energy, said: “This is a big step forward, not just for the Celtic Sea, but for Britain’s clean energy future. We’re seeing real momentum behind floating offshore wind and we’re backing an industry where the UK has the expertise to lead.

“This project will mean new skilled jobs and opportunities for communities across Wales and the south West of England. Offshore wind is the backbone of a secure energy system, and today’s milestone shows we’re getting on with the job – investment, jobs and clean, homegrown power that we control.”

Welsh Government Cabinet Secretary for Economy, Energy and Planning, Rebecca Evans said: “This agreement marks another major step forward in our mission to make Britain a clean energy superpower. Ocean Winds joining Equinor and Gwynt Glas in the Celtic Sea demonstrates continued investor confidence in Wales. These projects will create thousands of skilled jobs and help secure our energy independence for generations to come.”

1144 GMT – Saudi Arabia’s output reduction is occurring in fields that don’t produce Arab Light crude, the main grade that can be exported via the Yanbu terminal on the Red Sea, Amena Bakr, head of Middle East energy and OPEC+ insights at Kpler, says. Bloomberg on Monday reported that Saudi Arabia is starting oil-output cuts as storage fills up due to Hormuz disruptions. “This is not accurate, according to our understanding,” Bakr says in a post on X. “There is a reallocation of supply that’s happening, not a cut.” Saudi Aramco has been diverting more of its crude via the East-West pipeline, which bypasses the Strait of Hormuz, Kpler says. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

Middle East Oil Shut-Ins Raise Risk of Lasting Supply Losses

1047 GMT – Prolonged oil production shut‑ins in the Middle East raise the risk of partial or permanent production losses due to reservoir, well, facility, and logistical constraints, according to Societe Generale. “Time is critical: the longer disruptions persist, the greater the likelihood that what initially appear to be temporary outages evolve into more durable supply losses,” Michael Haigh and Ben Hoff say. Risks start increasing after about two weeks offline and intensify beyond a month, with capacity typically returning to only 80%-95% after outages of several months, according to the bank. If more producers beyond Iraq and Kuwait curtail output, quickly restoring pre‑crisis supply would become increasingly difficult.(giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

Surge in Oil Prices May Still Be Short-Lived

0923 GMT – The surge in oil prices may still be short-lived, according to Julius Baer’s Norbert Rücker in a research note. “Oil markets have entered panic mode,” says the head economics and next generation research. While prices have surged to over $100/bbl, most of this move seems to “come from nervousness and sentiment, since tangible and significant fundamental shifts in the conflict are not visible over the weekend,” he says. Rücker still believes the energy price spike will be intense but short-lived. “Meaningful infrastructure damage remains absent, and Iran’s military threat seems to be softening,” he says. Front-month WTI crude oil futures are 15% higher at $104.15/bbl; front-month Brent crude futures are 15% higher at $106.80/bbl. (tracy.qu@wsj.com)

Oil, Gas Expected to Trade Around Current Price Levels Through March

1016 GMT – Oil and gas prices are likely to trade around current levels through March as supply disruptions evolve and some producers begin shutting in output, Julius Baer analyst Norbert Ruecker says in a note. He projects that up to 75% of Middle Eastern oil flows relying on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz could face temporary shut-ins next week, though Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Iraq have pipelines that bypass the Strait. Temporary shut-ins may reduce, but not eliminate, the oil market’s surplus this year. Stagnating demand and rising production, particularly in South America, should keep supplies up, he adds. However, rising road fuel prices, particularly in the U.S., are worth watching. If the Trump administration were to impose restrictions on petroleum exports, this would trigger a sharper and longer oil price spike. (jason.chau@wsj.com)

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