Bitcoin Faces Long-Term Quantum Threat: Industry Prepares as 30% of Supply at Risk

Industry leaders are raising urgent alarms about a quantum computing threat to Bitcoin’s security, with Coinbase warning that quantum computers capable of breaking Bitcoin’s cryptography could emerge, presenting a challenge that may require a multi-year upgrade process. About 30% of Bitcoin’s supply already sits in addresses with visible public keys, according to Glassnode data, making those holdings vulnerable once a quantum threat materializes.

The Technical Risk

Bitcoin wallets are protected by digital signatures that a powerful enough quantum computer could, in theory, break. A Google study in March suggested this may take far fewer qubits than once thought, and Google’s March white paper estimated that breaking Bitcoin’s security would require roughly 1,200-1,450 logical qubits.

Timeline Uncertainty

Self-custody platform Casa co-founder and chief security officer Jameson Lopp believes it could take at least another decade before a quantum computer capable of decoding a Bitcoin public key becomes a reality. However, Google’s Willow chip, announced in December 2024, has 105 qubits, while IBM has reported 70 logical qubits and QuEra Computing has executed algorithms with up to 96 logical qubits. IBM’s hardware roadmaps show the company targeting 200 logical qubits by 2029 and 2,000 by 2033.

Prediction market Polymarket currently assigns only a 1% chance of a quantum computer breaking Bitcoin’s security by year-end, and 11% by the end of 2027.

The Satoshi Nakamoto Problem

Satoshi Nakamoto is estimated to have mined around 1.1 million BTC in Bitcoin’s first year, with those coins never having moved, worth roughly £91.5 billion at current prices. Coinbase flagged a separate governance and engineering problem: coins that cannot or will not move, including coins in early address types, coins in reused addresses, coins with lost keys and Satoshi-era holdings.

An upgrade alone cannot protect these coins, and with no one known to be able to move them, they remain a unique challenge for the Bitcoin network.

How A Fix Would Work

Making Bitcoin quantum-resistant requires replacing the digital signatures used to authorize transactions — a challenging, complex, and multi-year process. Coinbase backs a phased fix in which the same funds could be spent with either a current key or a quantum-resistant one, pointing to BIP-360 (which already had a test network running earlier in the year) and a design called P2TRv2 as flexible options.

Institutional Preparation

Coinbase confirmed it holds about 5% of all Bitcoin in existence as a custodian, and is preparing its own systems, holding discussions with Bitcoin developers, and participating in the Bitcoin Security Consortium. The exchange emphasised that the move would be “a challenging, complex, and multi-year process”.

For UK retail traders, the key takeaway is that quantum threats to Bitcoin remain distant but are now being treated with seriousness by major institutions. Staying informed about proposed upgrades and understanding whether your holdings sit in vulnerable address types will be important as this conversation evolves.

Main picture: Photo by Michael Förtsch on Unsplash

The firm reported about 99.99% fidelity, a measure of how closely the finished states matched what researchers were aiming for.

That number applies only to the states that passed inspection. Willow kept about 8% of its attempts after the checks during preparation and measurement. For every 100 tries, about eight made it through.

The next steps include running the process at a much larger scale and keeping those states useful as they feed into longer calculations. The researchers say more work is needed on real-time operations and moving the states into stronger error-correcting setups.

How it fits with earlier research

In March, Google estimated that a future superconducting quantum computer with fewer than 500,000 physical qubits could break the wallet cryptography used by Bitcoin and Ethereum, under a specific set of hardware assumptions.

In September, CoinDesk reported on researchers cutting the workload of a core calculation used in that attack. That work covered one component, leaving out the complete attack and the physical hardware costs of running it.

Those studies reduce the amount of math an attacker has to do. Cultivation addresses the cost of supplying the machine while it does that math.

The gains cannot simply be multiplied together. Google’s March estimate already assumed efficient magic-state production. The experiment tests part of that engineering approach, rather than providing another 40-fold reduction in the estimated cost of attacking bitcoin.

A British High Court ruling has dealt a significant setback to Chinese fraud victims seeking ownership of more than 61,000 bitcoin seized by London police. The cryptocurrency haul, now worth approximately $5 billion, originated from an enormous Ponzi scheme orchestrated by convicted fraudster Zhimin Qian. The Oct. 12 decision places Chinese law at the center of the ownership dispute, complicating victims’ efforts to reclaim the appreciated assets.

The Bitcoin Seizure and the Fraudster

Zhimin Qian, also known as Yadi Zhang, orchestrated approximately 10 fraudulent investment schemes in China between 2014 and 2017. Operating through Tianjin Lantian Gerui Electronic Technology Co. Ltd. and related entities, Qian collected approximately 40.2 billion yuan, equivalent to roughly £4.1 billion, from investors. Court records identify at least 128,409 investment contracts.

Qian purchased more than 100,000 BTC through an exchange account she controlled before fleeing China in July 2017. She subsequently entered Britain under an assumed identity.

Metropolitan Police officers searched properties connected to Qian and associate Jian Wen on Oct. 31 and Nov. 1, 2018. Investigators confiscated electronic devices, wallet credentials, and other assets connected to more than 61,000 BTC.

The Ownership Question

Thousands of investors pursued claims under Section 281 of Britain’s Proceeds of Crime Act 2002, arguing that portions of the recovered bitcoin legally belonged to them. The critical question was whether they held a proprietary interest — direct ownership — in the seized bitcoin or merely a right to compensation.

Justice Mark Turner rejected arguments that English law, or a combination of English and Chinese law, should determine those underlying ownership rights. The judge concluded that the fraudulent investments, financial losses, and bitcoin acquisitions were fundamentally connected to China.

The Ruling’s Impact

The decision hands U.K. prosecutors an important legal victory, although the government hasn’t secured an outright claim to the fortune. The High Court has not determined who ultimately owns the bitcoin.

For UK cryptocurrency holders, the case highlights a key principle: the laws governing ownership of seized or disputed digital assets depend on where the transaction originated and where the assets are held. Turner emphasized that questions concerning the substance and application of Chinese law must be resolved during subsequent proceedings.

Qian was eventually arrested in April 2024 and pleaded guilty to money laundering offences in September 2025, receiving an 11-year, eight-month prison sentence.

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Harvard University’s endowment grew 27.1% in fiscal year 2026, its strongest return in five years, the school said in its annual financial report released on Thursday. 

The endowment, which beat the S&P 500’s 22.3% total return in the same period by 4.8 percentage points, now totals nearly $68 billion. The outperformance came amid actions by the Trump administration to penalize the school and withhold funding from the university. 

“While markets can easily take back what they give, that return will strengthen the endowment’s capacity to support the University over time,” Harvard’s chief financial officer Ritu Kalra and treasurer Timothy Barakett wrote in the 49-page annual report. “The University deliberately smooths distributions so that operating support does not rise and fall with the markets. Strong investment returns therefore support Harvard’s work gradually, through future distributions.”

The returns marked the best year for the endowment, managed by the Harvard Management Company, since 2021. Harvard’s fiscal year ends on June 30. 

In its second-quarter 13F filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission, Harvard unveiled a $2.2 billion stake in Elon Musk’s SpaceX rocket and satellite company. It marked the endowment’s largest single holding by value, trailed by Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company at just under $350 million. 

Harvard’s financial picture, though, is undermined by moves by the federal government. Federally-sponsored research revenue declined 19.5% to $509 million in fiscal 2026. 

And starting in the current fiscal year, “endowment resources will face an additional constraint, with the federal excise tax on Harvard’s net investment income rising nearly six-fold, from 1.4% to 8%,” Kalra and Barakett wrote. “We estimate the higher rate will cost roughly $300 million a year.”

“[I]n a year of returns like this one,” the federal excise tax “would be several times larger,” they noted.

President Alan Garber acknowledged such headwinds, but said in the report that Harvard can still succeed.

“Together, we have the opportunity to set the University on a path to excellence that none of us can imagine today,” he said. “Notwithstanding the challenges and uncertainty, this is a thrilling time to be part of a great American institution devoted to Veritas.”

The UK’s new cryptocurrency regulatory regime is coming. The FCA published its final crypto rulebook on 30 June 2026, and the countdown to full enforcement has begun. Here’s what retail traders and crypto platform users need to know right now.

The Timeline: Three Key Dates

The FCA’s authorisation gateway opened 30 September 2026 and will close 28 February 2027. Any crypto platform operating in the UK — whether it’s a UK-based exchange, a foreign platform serving UK customers, or a custody service — must apply for full FCA authorisation within this window or face being shut out of the UK market.

The full regime comes into force on 25 October 2027. After that date, platforms without FCA authorisation will be unable to operate legally in the UK. This is not a gentle transition: it is a hard cutoff.

Which Platforms Are Affected?

The new framework covers crypto trading platforms (exchanges), custodians, stablecoin issuers and staking intermediaries. If you trade crypto on a platform serving the UK — whether you live here or the platform is overseas — that platform must be authorised. Platforms already registered under existing anti-money laundering (AML) rules will not be automatically converted to the new authorisation and must apply separately.

This is important: old registrations do not carry over. A platform that passed AML checks two years ago does not automatically pass the new, stricter regime.

What Has Already Happened: The Rejection Rate

Over 85% of firms that applied under the existing AML registration process were rejected or withdrew their applications. This gives a clear signal: the new authorisation bar is much higher, and not every platform will clear it.

New Protections for Traders

When the regime goes live, FCA-authorised platforms will be required to offer meaningful consumer safeguards that have not previously existed in the UK crypto market:

— Standardised risk warnings and Consumer Duty standards (the same framework that governs banks and investment platforms)
— Client money protection if a platform fails
— Capital stress-testing requirements, improving platform financial resilience
— Market integrity rules designed to prevent insider trading and market manipulation
— A 24-hour cooling-off period for new investors
— Access to the Financial Ombudsman Service for complaints

These rules do not eliminate crypto’s volatility or risk. Crypto remains a high-risk investment and the new rules do not guarantee against losses. But they bring the UK’s regulatory framework closer to traditional financial services.

What You Should Do Now

Three concrete steps for UK retail traders:

1. Check your platform’s status. Visit the FCA’s Firm Checker at fca.org.uk/consumers/check-if-firm-fca-authorised to see whether your current trading platform is registered or has applied for authorisation. If it is not on the register and has not announced an application, assume risk.

2. Prepare for platform migration. If your current platform is not seeking authorisation, you will need to move your holdings before October 2027. This takes time and can incur withdrawal fees. Start the process before the rush begins.

3. Review your tax position. From the 2026/27 tax year, crypto platforms are required to collect and report transaction data to HMRC under the Crypto-Asset Reporting Framework (CARF). If you have not previously declared crypto gains to the taxman, now is the time to get ahead of it with a tax adviser.

What Happens to Platforms That Don’t Apply?

Crypto exchanges and custody services operating without FCA authorisation after 25 October 2027 will be breaking UK law. Penalties for non-compliance include unlimited fines for businesses and up to 2 years’ imprisonment for those involved. In practice, this means:

— UK banks will close payment corridors to unauthorised platforms
— Platforms will lose access to UK customer money
— Users will have no regulatory recourse if funds are lost or stolen

The Bigger Picture

The FCA’s new regime is broadly aligned with the EU’s MiCA regulation, which came into force on 1 July 2026, but the UK framework allows more flexibility on stablecoin reserves and explicitly preserves access to global liquidity through overseas trading venues. This positions the UK as commercially pragmatic while still raising governance standards.

For retail traders, the takeaway is straightforward: by October 2027, you should be trading only on FCA-authorised platforms. The 12-month countdown has started. Use the time to verify your platform’s status, plan your migration if needed, and get your tax house in order.

Main picture: Photo by Davor Puljić on Unsplash

ARLINGTON, Va. — The CEO of Kalshi, the company at the center of a high-profile legal battle over the future of prediction markets in the U.S., said the clash won’t ultimately decide whether the rapidly growing industry is overseen by states or a federal agency, but whether it’s overseen by the feds here or is forced overseas.

“We feel pretty good about where we stand overall,” Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour said Wednesday at the DC Fintech Week event near Washington.

Mansour rejected arguments that sports betting — the explosively growing element of the event-contracts space — doesn’t have significant economic consequences that justify the trades’ status as federally regulated financial contracts.

“The notion that sports does not have economic consequence is ludicrous,” he said.

A growing list of states have challenged Kalshi and other prediction markets firms in court, accusing them of engaging in illegal sports wagering that belongs under the authority of state gambling regulators. But Kalshi and the federal regulator of its exchange, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, have countered in courts that the federal agency is the appropriate sole watchdog of prediction markets.

Bitcoin slipped below the psychologically important $82,000 level in the hours after the US Bureau of Labor Statistics released September Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, with the move closely tied to a hotter-than-expected inflation print and the market’s read-through to interest-rate expectations.

At around $81,926 on Bitstamp, BTC’s decline followed a CPI year-over-year rate of 3.7%—slightly above the 3.6% consensus—while fuel costs and broader energy-related components drove much of the surprise. The report also pushed up US Treasury yields and dragged gold lower, underscoring how macro repricing is still dictating near-term crypto price action.

Key takeaways

• Bitcoin fell to roughly $81,926 on Bitstamp after September CPI came in at 3.7% YoY versus 3.6% expected.
• Fuel and gasoline prices were the dominant factor, with gasoline up 9.1% YoY according to the BLS release.
• US bond yields jumped and gold declined to about $4,079 per ounce, signaling a broader risk-sensitive macro reaction.
• CME Group’s FedWatch Tool showed markets shifting toward the odds of a 25-basis-point move at the Fed’s late-October meeting.

Hotter US CPI tightens the macro grip on Bitcoin

TradingView data, as cited in coverage of the move, showed not only crypto but also gold and stock-index futures turning lower after CPI hit the tape. The CPI report confirmed a 3.7% year-over-year increase for September, which was 0.1 percentage points above the majority expectation, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data.

The composition of the inflation gain mattered: fuel-price increases tied to global supply pressures—linked in the report discussion to the Middle East conflict and an oil-supply strain—were described as especially conspicuous.

The BLS release highlighted that gasoline was up 9.1% year-on-year, accounting for more than half of the “all items” monthly increase, while the energy index rose 5.2% over the month following a 2.1% increase in August. These details, from the BLS official CPI release, are important for investors because they suggest the inflation pressure is not only “core-like,” but also concentrated in inputs closely tied to global energy markets.

Core CPI also edges higher, limiting relief for rate-sensitive assets

Even beyond energy, the report did not provide broad cooling. Core CPI—defined as CPI excluding energy and food—came in at 2.6% year-on-year, also 0.1 percentage points higher than what markets expected.

Carson Group’s Sonu Varghese, commenting in an interview on CNBC, argued that investors should have anticipated elevated readings. He pointed to potential follow-through from higher diesel prices as well as demand-side effects tied to the “AI boom,” framing the “surprise” as increasingly difficult to justify given where the economy appears to be headed.

For crypto traders, the key takeaway is that even if the headline number is partially energy-influenced, the core component being firmer reduces the probability that markets can quickly pivot back to a softer Fed path purely on disinflation hopes.

Fed pricing shifts: higher yields and lower gold follow CPI

Market-rate expectations moved quickly after the CPI print. According to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, the majority of participants adjusted toward a 25-basis-point rate hike at the Fed’s upcoming meeting on Oct. 28. The odds for that outcome rose to 53.7% from 22.1% the prior day, the tool’s data showed, while expectations for December reflected similarly hawkish probability levels, with a second 25-basis-point move standing at around 50%.

Theresa Sheehan of Econoday offered additional context, suggesting that—paired with softness in September payrolls—the FOMC may be inclined to hold rates at its late-October meeting while maintaining a bias toward hiking in December.

In commodities and rates, the CPI reaction followed a consistent macro playbook. Gold, which is often sensitive to real yields and the direction of monetary policy expectations, fell to approximately $4,079 per ounce. US bond yields rose as well, with the 10-year yield reaching 5.329%—described as roughly three basis points shy of new 24-year highs, based on the coverage’s referenced charting of market moves.

Economist Robin Brooks captured the sentiment in a blog post cited in the reporting, arguing that the CPI result was “the last thing global bond markets needed,” especially after earlier indications that a bond sell-off might be settling.

Where Bitcoin goes next: a defined zone and the next inflation catalyst

Despite the broader risk-off tone, Bitcoin’s immediate technical framing remained centered on a specific range. The article discussion noted BTC continuing to trade around a key area between $82,500 and $83,400, with analysts awaiting confirmation on whether that band could hold as support or instead give way.

That matters because macro-driven selloffs can quickly become self-reinforcing if a commonly watched level breaks. Conversely, if the range holds while yields stabilize, BTC often regains traction as traders refocus on crypto-specific flows rather than purely on duration and rate expectations.

Looking ahead, the next scheduled US data point in the chain of inflation signals is the Producer Price Index (PPI), due Friday, which was highlighted in prior Cointelegraph reporting referenced in the article. With CPI already shifting Fed pricing, traders are likely to watch whether PPI confirms another round of inflation pressure or—just as importantly—whether it points to easing input costs that could later feed into retail price trends.

For now, the main uncertainty is whether the CPI move proves to be a brief repricing tied to energy alone, or a more persistent inflation narrative that keeps yields elevated. Either way, Bitcoin appears to be reacting as a macro asset in the near term—so monitoring rate expectations and the next inflation prints may be as important as watching order-book dynamics.