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$202 Million Solana Selling Sparks First Capitulation Since 2022

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Solana Balance On Exchanges

Solana remains under sustained pressure as broader market conditions deteriorate. SOL has extended its downtrend for several weeks, reflecting reduced investor confidence. 

Recent on-chain data reveals a surge in exchange-directed supply. Roughly $202 million worth of SOL has moved to trading platforms since the beginning of the month. This wave of selling has intensified bearish momentum and revived capitulation signals not observed since 2022.

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Solana Holders Are Selling

Active deposits on the Solana network have started declining after a sharp rise earlier this month. This metric tracks tokens transferred to exchanges, often signaling intent to sell.

Despite moderating deposit flows, exchange balances continue to reflect elevated supply. Over the past 17 days, exchange wallets have added 2.35 million SOL. At current prices, this increase equates to approximately $202 million in additional sell-side liquidity.

Want more token insights like this? Sign up for Editor Harsh Notariya’s Daily Crypto Newsletter here.

Solana Balance On Exchanges
Solana Balance On Exchanges. Source: Glassnode

Rising exchange reserves generally amplify downward pressure. Larger balances make it easier for traders to execute sell orders. However, this influx has also triggered a historical capitulation signal. Similar spikes in exchange supply previously aligned with late-stage bear market conditions.

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The MVRV Pricing Bands provide critical valuation context. Solana’s price is currently trading below the Extreme Lows deviation band. For this classification, the Market Value to Realized Value ratio must stay below 0.8 for roughly 5% of trading days.

SOL has remained beneath that threshold for 26% of recent sessions. This confirms a prolonged undervaluation phase. The only comparable event occurred in May 2022. Following that period, Solana remained depressed for 17 months before staging a meaningful recovery.

Solana MVRV Pricing Bands.
Solana MVRV Pricing Bands. Source: Glassnode

SOL Price Downtrend Continues

Solana is trading at $86 at the time of writing. The token remains capped below the $90 resistance while holding above the $81 support zone. A move above $90 would intersect the prevailing downtrend line, signaling potential technical improvement.

However, current data suggests downside risk persists. Continued exchange inflows and weak macro momentum could pressure SOL further. A decisive break below $81 may expose the next support near $67, extending the drawdown.

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Solana Price Analysis.
Solana Price Analysis. Source: TradingView

Alternatively, reclaiming $90 would shift short-term sentiment. A breakout above the descending trendline could attract renewed capital inflows. If momentum strengthens, SOL may rally toward $105 and potentially higher, invalidating the prevailing bearish thesis.

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Crypto World

Bitcoin Miners Flee to AI as Hashrates Hit New Lows

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Bitcoin Miners Flee to AI as Hashrates Hit New Lows

There’s a new debate over whether a continued pivot from Bitcoin miners to artificial intelligence could have an impact on Bitcoin security and its role as a store of value. 

While some argue that miners fleeing the network would leave it more susceptible to a “51% attack,” others argue it will simply trigger the Bitcoin network to rebalance itself as designed, making it enticing for miners again.

“AI has killed Bitcoin forever,” said crypto trader Ran Neuner on Sunday, arguing that it has become Bitcoin mining’s biggest competitor because both industries compete for electricity.

“AI is willing to pay much more for it,” he added, explaining that Bitcoin (BTC) mining revenue per megawatt is around $57 to $129, but AI data center revenue per megawatt is up to eight times higher at $200 to $500 for the same electricity, which is why miners are starting to pivot.

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Earlier this month, Core Scientific secured up to $1 billion in credit for AI hosting, MARA Holdings recently filed with the SEC to signal its intent to sell some of its BTC in an AI pivot and Hut 8 signed a $7 billion AI infrastructure agreement with Google in December, argued Neuner.

Meanwhile, Cipher Mining cut its hashrate to focus on AI compute, and Bitmain cofounder Jihan Wu has stopped mining and pivoted to AI, he added.

“So if I were a miner, it wouldn’t be a tough decision. And that’s why every day more and more miners are leaving the network.” 

It sounds like a doomsday scenario for Bitcoin, but not everyone agrees. 

Bitcoin pioneer and cryptographer Adam Back argued that difficulty adjustments would only force the least efficient miners out, and profitability would improve. 

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“What happens to Bitcoin is simple: tick tock, next block! Difficult adjusts downwards, the least efficient and AI switchers move out, and Bitcoin mining profitability converges to AI profitability. QED.”

“If AI outbids miners for electricity, miners just turn off until the difficulty adjusts and it’s profitable again, that’s literally how Bitcoin works,” added investor Fred Krueger.

Bitcoin energy demand is variable

However, Neuner argued that falling hashrates, which are down 14.5% since their October peak, mean that there are fewer miners to secure the network, and a higher potential for 51% attacks.

This has all happened before during bear markets, and automatic network difficulty adjustments usually compensate for it, “but this time is different because we don’t have the energy,” he said. 

Bitcoin mining profitability, or hashprice, is near an all-time low. Source: HashRateIndex

Related: Crypto miners must put their Bitcoin to work to survive: Wintermute

Bitcoin ESG specialist Daniel Batten disagreed and said it was the other way around, as “the evidence tells us that AI is dependent upon Bitcoin for its expansion.”

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It wasn’t all about high demand and expensive power, as Bitcoin mining can use stranded energy, act as a flexible load balancer for energy grids, and use older equipment for cheaper energy, he argued. 

One green candle to prevent AI competition doomsday

Neuner said one way to ensure AI doesn’t overshadow Bitcoin will depend on whether BTC prices go up.

“What I hope is that Bitcoin has one green candle. Maybe because of the war, maybe because of the regulation, who knows? But ultimately, if it has one green candle.” 

“If you’re watching the Bitcoin price action during this war, that’s exactly what’s happening,” he said, adding that the other scenario, where Bitcoin price continues to fall, is “pretty much a Bitcoin doomsday.”

Bitcoin has seen five monthly red candles in a row, something that hasn’t happened since the 2018 bear market. However, March is currently shaping up green with the asset gaining 8% so far this month, according to CoinGlass.

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