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2026 is the year for money on-chain

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Manhar Garegrat

Disclosure: The views and opinions expressed here belong solely to the author and do not represent the views and opinions of crypto.news’ editorial.

For over a decade, the idea of money moving on-chain has hovered between promise and pause. The technology was always ahead of behaviour. Infrastructure matured faster than trust. Capital, especially institutional capital, preferred to observe rather than participate.

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Summary

  • The shift is behavioral, not technical: Infrastructure was ready years ago — 2025 is when institutions started asking “how does this fit?” instead of “how fast can it go?”
  • Serious capital has arrived quietly: Family offices and HNWIs are allocating to on-chain assets as long-term infrastructure, not speculative trades — and that kind of money sticks.
  • Regulation + tokenization make 2026 inevitable: Clear rules, real-world asset tokenization, and remittances as a killer use case are turning on-chain money from theory into financial plumbing.

That gap has started narrowing. By the end of 2025, the conversation shifted subtly but meaningfully. On-chain activity stopped being framed as a speculative side-show and began appearing in serious discussions around portfolio construction, asset efficiency, and cross-border value movement. As we look at 2026, it is worth asking whether this is the year money meaningfully transitions on-chain; not as a trend, but as an operating layer of global finance.

What changed in 2025 was behaviour, not technology

The biggest shift in 2025 was not technological innovation. It was behavioural maturity. Bitcoin’s (BTC) evolution captures this well. Once viewed almost entirely through the lens of volatility, it is now increasingly discussed as a long-duration asset with specific portfolio characteristics. That change in framing matters far more than price cycles.

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Markets mature when participants begin asking better questions. In 2025, the questions shifted from “How fast can this grow?” to “How does this fit?” Custody, governance, auditability, and regulatory alignment became central themes. That is usually the moment when an asset class moves from experimentation to early adoption.

Serious wealth has entered quietly

In light of the turbulent times we’re living in, one of the more understated developments has been the steady participation of high-net-worth individuals and family offices in alternative assets like VDAs. This has not been loud capital. It has been careful, structured, and incremental. Many are allocating a modest percentage of their portfolios to digital assets, not to chase upside but to hedge concentration risk and gain exposure to a parallel financial infrastructure that is largely uncorrelated to traditional assets.

This matters because such capital tends to be sticky. It enters slowly, but it rarely exits impulsively. Once digital assets are treated as an allocation decision rather than a tactical trade, the foundation for long-term participation is laid. In 2026, this segment is likely to deepen its engagement; not necessarily by increasing risk, but by increasing conviction.

Regulation is not the enemy of on-chain money

India’s regulatory tightening has often been interpreted as resistance. In reality, it signals something more important: acknowledgement. Markets are regulated when they become too large to ignore. From a long-term perspective, regulation is not a brake on institutional participation; it is a prerequisite.

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Clear rules, even strict ones, allow capital to assess risk with precision. Ambiguity deters serious money far more than compliance does. As India sharpens its regulatory posture and global frameworks such as CARF gain traction, the cost of participating on-chain becomes more predictable. Predictability, not permissiveness, is what institutions look for.

The quiet maturation of assets

Another reason 2026 feels different is asset maturity. Digital assets are no longer limited to cryptocurrencies. The conversation has expanded to tokenised representations of real-world value: real estate, land, funds, and potentially other long-duration assets.

India saw several announcements in 2025 around real estate and land tokenisation. Elsewhere, the New York Stock Exchange has announced a parallel exchange that will trade in tokenized assets with blockchain-based settlements, making T+1, T+2, and market hours history. While large-scale execution across the globe may take time, these developments are significant catalysts. Tokenisation is not about disruption for its own sake. It is about improving liquidity, reducing friction, and increasing transparency in asset classes that have historically been opaque and inefficient.

The real impact will not come from mass adoption overnight, but from selective, compliant use cases where on-chain records offer operational advantages. That is where credibility is built.

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Remittances may be the first true test case

If there is one area where on-chain money has a clear functional advantage, it is global remittances. Speed, cost efficiency, and transparency are not theoretical benefits here; they are measurable outcomes.

Traditional systems remain slow, expensive, and fragmented. On-chain rails offer a way to move value across borders with fewer intermediaries and greater traceability. As regulatory clarity improves, remittances could become one of the first mainstream use cases where on-chain money moves from “alternative” to “obvious.”

India’s unresolved stablecoin question

One critical issue that 2026 will force into sharper focus is India’s stance on stablecoins. The RBI has articulated its position clearly, favouring sovereign digital currency models. However, globally, stablecoins continue to play a growing role in on-chain liquidity and settlement. Apparently, India has also proposed linking BRICS’ digital currencies on the back of CBDCs. The real question is whether stablecoin rails will continue to remain global liquidity havens or will the network effects settle on sovereign rails?

India will eventually need to articulate a more detailed position, whether through restriction, regulation, or selective allowance. This decision will shape how seamlessly India integrates into global on-chain financial systems. Avoiding the question may no longer be viable as cross-border capital flows increasingly intersect with digital rails.

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So, is 2026 the turning point?

2026 is unlikely to be remembered as the year money fully moved on-chain. But it may be remembered as the year key decisions were made. The year when on-chain money stopped being debated as a possibility and started being evaluated as infrastructure.

The shift will be gradual, uneven, and heavily regulated. That is how financial systems evolve. What feels different now is the convergence of behaviour, regulation, and asset maturity. When those three align, capital tends to follow.

Money rarely moves where excitement is highest. It moves where systems are stable, rules are clear, and long-term value is visible. 2026 may not deliver headlines, but it may quietly mark the beginning of money finding its place on-chain.

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Manhar Garegrat

Manhar Garegrat

Manhar Garegrat is the Country Head – India & Global Partnerships at Liminal Custody, a leading provider of secure digital asset custody and wallet infrastructure solutions. Based in India, he brings extensive experience in the blockchain and digital asset industry, having driven growth and strategic initiatives at major players such as ZebPay, CoinDCX, and co-founded the Panthera Web3 Wallet Suite. Known for his strong leadership and deep understanding of crypto regulation, policy, and enterprise adoption, Manhar plays a key role in expanding Liminal’s footprint in India and strengthening global partnerships to support secure, compliant digital asset operations.

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Uniswap Foundation held $85.8M at year-end, committed $26M in grants during 2025

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(Uniswap/CoinDesk)

The Uniswap Foundation held $85.8 million in total assets at the end of 2025, split between $49.9 million in cash and stablecoins, 15.1 million UNI tokens, and 240 ETH, according to unaudited summary financials published Tuesday.

The foundation committed $26 million in new grants during 2025 and disbursed $11 million against prior commitments. In Q4 alone, $5.8 million in new grants were committed and $2.1 million disbursed. Operating expenses for the full year came to $9.7 million, excluding employee token awards of 450,000 UNI.

On the revenue side, the foundation received 20.3 million UNI, worth roughly $114 million at year-end prices, from the Uniswap Treasury through the Uniswap Unleashed governance proposal. It also earned $1.7 million in interest on fiat holdings.

The numbers reflect the foundation’s financial position before the UNIfication proposal, approved by governance on Dec. 26, which restructures the relationship between the foundation and the broader Uniswap ecosystem. A new legal entity called DUNI was formed as part of that process.

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Of the total funds, $106.2 million was earmarked for grants ($87.5 million to be committed, $18.7 million reserved for previously committed grants awaiting disbursement) and $26.3 million for operations and employee token awards.

The projected runway extended through January 2027, though the foundation said that timeline will be updated in its Q1 2026 report to reflect the post-UNIfication organizational changes.

(Uniswap/CoinDesk)

The report lands alongside a year of significant protocol milestones, including the launch of Uniswap v4, which introduced hooks and a programmable architecture for on-chain liquidity, and Unichain, a dedicated chain for high-performance DeFi applications. The foundation said more than 1,500 developers onboarded to v4 during the year.

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EDX Markets applies for U.S. trust charter to expand institutional crypto services

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EDX Markets applies for U.S. trust charter to expand institutional crypto services

EDX Markets, the crypto exchange backed by Citadel Securities, has applied for a national trust bank charter, marking a new step in its push to serve institutional clients.

The exchange submitted its filing to the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency on Wednesday, according to documents seen by CoinDesk. The move comes about three and a half years after the firm launched.

If approved, the charter would allow EDX to offer custody, asset management and principal trading services, while continuing to run its core order-matching platform. The filing outlines a structure where custody and settlement sit within a regulated trust entity, separate from trading operations.

EDX Markets targets traditional finance firms entering digital assets. Its backers include Fidelity Digital Assets and Charles Schwab Corp, alongside Citadel Securities. The platform went live in the summer of 2023 with four cryptocurrencies: bitcoin , ether (ETH), and bitcoin cash (BHC). It has since expanded to include 17 additional tokens.

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“EDX Trust is a key step in bringing traditional market structure to digital assets,” CEO Tony Acuña-Rohter told CoinDesk. “By separating custody and settlement into a regulated trust, we’re building the kind of infrastructure banks and institutional investors expect as they scale into the space.”

EDX is not alone in seeking this type of regulatory footing. Several crypto firms have applied for and received trust bank charters in recent years, using them to offer custody and other services under U.S. oversight. These approvals have become a key pathway for firms looking to attract institutional capital.

Competition for those clients has intensified. Large asset managers and trading firms want platforms that mirror the safeguards and structure of traditional markets. In practice, that can mean segregated custody, clear settlement processes and regulated entities that reduce counterparty risk. For exchanges like EDX, securing a trust charter could help bridge that gap.

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Nakamoto BTC Sale Signals Sectorwide DAT Contagion, Analyst Says

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Crypto Breaking News

Bitcoin treasury holders have faced a renewed wave of scrutiny as market stress spread through the sector. Nakamoto (NAKA), a prominent crypto treasury company, disclosed March sales that locked in losses, a signal that broader capital discipline could intensify in the coming weeks. The disclosures come on the heels of a difficult year for digital-asset treasuries, marked by a collapse in net asset value premiums and a downbeat price environment that preceded a notable market downturn in October 2025.

In its latest disclosures, Nakamoto revealed a March sale of 284 BTC for roughly $20 million, implying a sale price near $70,000 per coin. The firm also reduced its stake in Metaplanet by divesting shares at a loss. End-2025 figures show Nakamoto’s BTC treasury at 5,342 coins, with a fair value of about $467.5 million and a quarterly fair-value loss of $166.1 million, according to the company’s 10-K filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

The broader crypto treasury space has faced mounting headwinds. A period of deteriorating NAV premiums for digital asset treasuries persisted into the third quarter of 2025, and equity prices of related treasury vehicles declined even before the October 2025 market crash that underscored a protracted bear cycle and the ensuing downturn in crypto prices. These dynamics underscore a sector-wide struggle to manage reserves amid volatile asset prices and tightening capital conditions.

Key takeaways

  • Nakamoto sold 284 BTC in March for about $20 million, a move that appears to have been executed around $70,000 per BTC and coincided with other treasury adjustments, including a loss-laden stake reduction in Metaplanet.
  • The company’s year-end 2025 10-K shows 5,342 BTC valued at $467.5 million, accompanied by a $166.1 million Q4 loss on the fair value of its crypto holdings.
  • The crypto treasury space experienced a notable drop in NAV premium strength during Q3 2025, a trend that predated the October market crash and helped set a challenging backdrop for treasury managers.
  • MAR A, another bitcoin miner turned treasury holder, disclosed a March sale of 15,133 BTC—valued at more than $1 billion—to retire about $1 billion in convertible debt, signaling a tactical liquidity move rather than a wholesale shift away from treasury holdings.
  • Industry observers warn of potential contagion risk if more treasuries respond to stress with further sales, especially amid macro pressures and regional conflicts that could weigh on BTC price action.

Nakamoto’s March dispositions and what they signify

According to Cointelegraph’s coverage of Nakamoto’s activities, the March sale of 284 BTC for roughly $20 million demonstrated a realized loss relative to prior valuation and raised questions about the persistence of losses across digital-asset treasuries. The firm also reduced its exposure to Metaplanet by offloading shares at a loss, a move that points to broader capital-allocation considerations rather than an outright pivot away from crypto reserves. The combination of these actions illustrates how treasuries are navigating a high-volatility environment where mark-to-market losses can quickly accumulate, even as some holdings remain substantially valuable on an on-paper basis.

End of year 2025 reporting reinforces the scale of Nakamoto’s holdings and the accompanying valuation pressures. The 10-K shows Nakamoto’s 5,342 BTC reserve valued at $467.5 million, with a $166.1 million loss recorded in the fourth quarter on the fair value of digital assets. That quarterly loss aligns with a period when the broader digital-asset sector faced multiple crosscurrents—ranging from wavering demand for treasuries to insurance and financing costs that increased as prices fell from their late-2025 peaks. For readers tracking treasury performance, the 10-K filing offers a concrete snapshot of how market moves translated into reported losses even when long-term holdings remained substantial.

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Market context during this period was nuanced. The crypto treasury space had already seen a squeeze on premium valuations in Q3 2025, a trend that predated a broader sell-off and the October market downturn. Analysts argued that a weaker macro and continued volatility could pressure treasury portfolios further, possibly triggering more sales as treasuries attempt to rebalance risk and maintain liquidity during stressed periods. In this backdrop, Nakamoto’s March actions read as a data point in a broader recalibration across the sector rather than an isolated event.

MARA’s March BTC sale: a tactical adjustment rather than capitulation

In a parallel development, MARA—the Bitcoin mining company that also holds a substantial treasury position—disclosed a March sale of 15,133 BTC valued at more than $1 billion. The purpose was to repurchase and retire approximately $1 billion in convertible debt, a move the firm framed as a strategic, short-term liquidity measure rather than a fundamental shift in its treasury strategy. Robert Samuels, MARA’s vice president for investor relations, emphasized that the sale did not indicate a plan to liquidate the majority of its reserves and that the company may buy or sell BTC from time to time based on market conditions and capital-allocation priorities.

The March sale underscores a recurring theme among large treasury holders: the balancing act between deleveraging, maintaining liquidity, and preserving upside exposure to Bitcoin’s longer-term fundamentals. While MARA’s disclosure signals a tactical debt-management objective, it also highlights how treasury activity can be driven by corporate financing needs as much as by crypto-market cycles. For investors and watchers, such moves can be a useful barometer of corporate risk tolerances and the appetite for risk transfer during periods of volatility.

What the ongoing dynamics mean for investors and builders

From an investor perspective, the Nakamoto and MARA disclosures illustrate that even sizable treasury positions are not immune to price volatility and reallocation pressures. The March activity—especially Nakamoto’s significant BTC disposition and Metaplanet stake reduction—adds to a broader narrative about treasury strategy in a regime of rising macro and geopolitical uncertainty. The end-2025 valuations and the quarterly losses documented in the 10-K filings serve as a reminder that mark-to-market moves can erode reported profitability even when blockchain-related assets retain strategic value for the long term.

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For traders and builders in the ecosystem, the implications extend beyond single-company moves. The observed NAV premium collapse in Q3 2025 suggested a broader mispricing in crypto-treasury vehicles, a dynamic that can influence funding conditions for new projects, credit lines for miners, and the willingness of traditional finance partners to engage with digital-asset treasuries. With the October 2025 price action illustrating a sharper turn in risk sentiment, observers will be watching whether the sector stabilizes or continues to reprice risk as companies navigate debt maturities, liquidity needs, and potential further sales from treasuries under strain.

In the near term, market watchers should stay alert to several indicators. First, any additional treasury actions from major holders could signal shifting risk tolerance or liquidity pressures. Second, updates to NAV premium trends and the health of associated debt instruments will help gauge the sector’s resilience. Finally, BTC price dynamics—especially around macro- and regional risks—will influence whether treasury holders can avoid a self-reinforcing cycle of losses and forced sales.

As the sector processes these developments, readers should monitor forthcoming earnings and regulatory disclosures for more clarity on how treasuries are being managed in a volatile environment. The March disclosures from Nakamoto and MARA, alongside the 10-K filings, offer concrete data points for assessing whether the current period marks a turning point or a short-lived adjustment in a longer-cycle evolution of crypto treasuries.

Readers can refer to the original reporting for deeper detail on the specific transactions: Nakamoto’s March BTC disposition and Metaplanet stake sale were covered in Cointelegraph’s coverage of the event, while the formal debt-reduction move by MARA was outlined in their SEC filings. The broader market context—DAT market pressures, NAV premium movements, and the October 2025 price shock—has been discussed across multiple industry analyses and related Cointelegraph coverage.

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The story remains fluid: as treasuries recalibrate their portfolios, investors should watch how new pricing, debt-financing needs, and macro conditions shape the next round of treasury activity and potential contagion dynamics within the sector.

Risk & affiliate notice: Crypto assets are volatile and capital is at risk. This article may contain affiliate links. Read full disclosure

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Paradigm builds pro-grade prediction market terminal for institutional traders

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Paradigm builds pro-grade prediction market terminal for institutional traders

Paradigm is building a pro‑grade prediction market terminal, eyeing an internal MM unit and S&P‑style index product as Kalshi’s valuation jumps to $22B on surging volumes.

Paradigm is building a dedicated prediction market trading terminal aimed squarely at professional traders and market makers, in one of the clearest signs yet that real‑money event markets are being treated as an emerging asset class rather than a curiosity. The project, led by Paradigm partner Arjun Balaji and initiated in late 2025, is designed to give sophisticated users Bloomberg‑style tools to trade, analyze and route liquidity across a growing ecosystem of on‑chain and regulated prediction platforms, according to a recent report in Fortune.

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The San Francisco‑based crypto investment firm is simultaneously weighing the launch of an internal prediction market‑making business, while working with researchers on a “prediction market index” that would package multiple event contracts into a single, tradable structure, explicitly modeled on benchmarks such as the S&P 500. Such an index could mirror earlier experiments with volatility and DeFi indices, and follows a broader wave of venture capital interest in the sector; one recent Forbes analysis noted that prediction market startups attracted $3.7 billion in new capital and “minted young billionaires at Polymarket and Kalshi” as trading volumes exploded.

Paradigm has already begun aggregating prediction market data into a public panel, a necessary precondition for any institutional‑grade terminal product. The firm is also one of the most aggressive financiers of regulated prediction venue Kalshi: in December 2025, Kalshi announced a $1 billion Series E funding round at an $11 billion valuation, led by Paradigm and joined by Sequoia, Andreessen Horowitz, ARK Invest and others, doubling its value in under two months, as first reported by TechCrunch and corroborated by company statements.

That bet has continued to pay off. A subsequent funding round reported in March 2026 lifted Kalshi’s valuation again, to $22 billion, after a further $1 billion raise, according to coverage compiled by Yahoo Finance and The Wall Street Journal. As prediction markets move from sub‑$100 million monthly volumes in early 2024 to more than $13 billion by the end of 2025, according to research cited by Forbes, the emergence of a dedicated Paradigm‑backed terminal, internal liquidity provision and index products suggests the asset class is being refashioned into financial infrastructure, rather than treated as a sideshow to spot crypto.

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Deepcoin becomes first CEX to integrate Polymarket ‘event contracts’

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Deepcoin becomes first CEX to integrate Polymarket 'event contracts'

Deepcoin is the first centralized exchange to integrate Polymarket event contracts, syncing quotes, liquidity and clearing so users can trade real‑world events with CEX tooling.

Summary

  • Deepcoin has launched synchronized “Event Contracts” in partnership with Polymarket, becoming the first centralized exchange to plug directly into its markets.
  • The integration offers real‑time quotes, shared liquidity and unified clearing, letting users trade Polymarket‑style contracts with CEX speed and tooling.
  • Deepcoin says it will keep refining the product toward a more “pure and professional” event‑trading experience tied to real‑world outcomes.

Cryptocurrency exchange Deepcoin has entered a formal partnership with prediction market platform Polymarket to launch “Event Contracts,” marking the first time a centralized exchange has integrated directly with Polymarket’s real‑money event markets. Announced on April 1, the tie‑up allows Deepcoin users to access “real quotes and liquidity support synchronized with global top event markets” while trading through standard exchange accounts, according to a company statement reported by ChainCatcher.

Under the new structure, both sides have implemented “deep integration of underlying logic and clearing synchronization,” so that positions taken via Deepcoin are effectively mirrored one‑for‑one with corresponding Polymarket contracts. This design means users can “directly participate in popular contracts on Polymarket through their Deepcoin accounts, enjoying CEX trading speed” and order‑book style execution that aligns with “professional trading habits,” the exchange said.

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Deepcoin framed the launch as the first step in building out a dedicated, institutional‑grade venue for real‑world event trading. The platform stated it would “continue to refine its products in the future to create a more pure and professional trading experience,” signaling plans to iterate on contract design, risk management and user analytics as volumes scale. By routing demand from a centralized venue into on‑chain prediction markets, the partnership effectively opens CEX rails into a segment historically dominated by niche DeFi interfaces and bespoke OTC flows.

The move lands just as regulated event markets and decentralized prediction protocols are drawing heightened attention from both venture capital and regulators. In March, Kalshi’s latest financing pushed its valuation to $22 billion as demand for macro and political contracts surged, according to coverage compiled by Yahoo Finance, while a recent Forbes analysis described prediction markets as “on the cusp of becoming core financial infrastructure” amid rising institutional interest. At the same time, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission enforcement director David Miller has warned that insider‑trading laws apply fully to prediction markets, underscoring the compliance pressure that CEX integrations like Deepcoin’s will have to navigate.

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U.S. BTC ETFs post first monthly inflows since October

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ETF AUM (CheckonChain)

U.S.listed spot bitcoin ETFs ended March with $1.32 billion in net inflows to record their first monthly inflows since October, SoSoValue data shows.

This follows four consecutive months of net outflows, which coincided with bitcoin declining by as much as 50% from its October all time high of $126,000.
November saw $3.5 billion in outflows, followed by $1.1 billion in December, $1.6 billion in January, and $206 million in February.

March also marked bitcoin’s first positive monthly candle in six months, suggesting a potential shift in momentum.

ETF assets under management have remained relatively resilient, however. Holdings declined from 1.38 million BTC in October to a low of 1.28 million BTC, a drop of roughly 7%, and have since recovered to around 1.31 million BTC, according to CheckonChain.

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ETF investors remain underwater on average, with an estimated cost basis near $84,000 compared to a current spot price of about $68,000.

ETF AUM (CheckonChain)
ETF AUM (CheckonChain)

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Galaxy Digital’s (GLXY) testnet suffers hack but no client funds or information were compromised

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Galaxy Digital's (GLXY) testnet suffers hack but no client funds or information were compromised

Galaxy Digital (GLXY), the digital asset financial services firm founded by Mike Novogratz, said it recently contained a cybersecurity incident involving unauthorized access to an isolated development workspace, according to a statement from a company spokesperson.

“An immaterial amount of company funds used for testing within the isolated development workspace was impacted,” the spokesperson said in emailed comments. The loss was less than $10,000, according to a person with knowledge of the matter.

The firm emphasized that the affected environment was used solely for research and development and was not connected to its core infrastructure, production systems, trading platforms or client accounts.

Galaxy said it detected the intrusion and moved quickly to contain it, secure the compromised workspace and implement additional precautionary measures across its on-chain infrastructure.

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“No client funds or client account information were accessed or at risk at any point based on our review to date,” Galaxy said, adding that all platforms and services remain fully operational and secure for clients.

Hacks and exploits remain a persistent risk in the crypto industry, where the combination of open-source code, large pools of onchain liquidity and uneven security practices creates an attractive target for attackers.

Billions of dollars are lost to smart contract exploits, phishing schemes and infrastructure breaches, with industry estimates often exceeding $1–2 billion annually in recent years.

Even when incidents are contained, and client assets are not impacted, breaches can erode trust, trigger heightened regulatory scrutiny and underscore the operational risks facing firms operating in largely irreversible, always-on financial systems.

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Galaxy is a diversified financial services and investment firm focused on the digital asset and blockchain sector, providing institutional clients with trading, asset management, lending, advisory and custody services.

The firm operates across several core business lines, including global markets, asset management and digital infrastructure, while also running businesses in areas like crypto mining, staking and data center operations.

Positioned as a bridge between traditional finance and crypto, Galaxy offers institutional-grade access to digital assets and related technologies, alongside investments in blockchain ventures and emerging areas such as AI-powered infrastructure.

The company said it is continuing to review the incident and will provide updates as appropriate.

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Read more: Bitcoin’s quantum threat is real, but far from an existential crisis, Galaxy says

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What Does it Mean for Bitcoin?

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What Does it Mean for Bitcoin?

Warren Buffett, the legendary investor and chairman of Berkshire Hathaway, revealed on CNBC this week that his firm purchased approximately $17 billion in US Treasury bills at the latest auction. Is a stock market crash coming and what does it mean for Bitcoin (BTC)?

Key takeaways:

  • Berkshire held $373 billion in cash or cash equivalents as of 2025’s close, more than double the levels in 2023.

  • The firm’s rising cash reserves typically precede major stock market crashes, a bad sign for Bitcoin.

Buffett still sees better value in cash than in stocks

Buffett’s message is straightforward: Berkshire does not see the recent equity pullback as a sufficiently attractive buying opportunity.

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For context, the S&P 500 has fallen about 5.75% since reaching a record high in January.

S&P 500 weekly performance chart. Source: TradingView

Buffett said stocks are not “substantially” cheaper after the decline and described the sell-off as “nothing” compared with earlier downturns in which markets fell more than 50%.

That helps explain Berkshire’s latest Treasury-bill purchase. The company ended 2025 with about $373 billion in cash and equivalents, up from a record $334.2 billion a year earlier and more than double its level at the end of 2023.

Buffett, who famously called Bitcoin “rat poison,” typically gets into cash before major stock crashes, historical data shows.

In 1998, for instance, Buffett began trimming Berkshire’s stock exposure and raising cash, pushing the company’s cash and cash-equivalents holdings to $13.1 billion, or about 23% of total assets.

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Berkshire’s cash and cash-equivalents holdings chart. Source: GuruFocus.COM

By mid-2000, that figure had climbed to nearly $15 billion, or roughly 25% of assets, before Berkshire started deploying capital into bargains as the Dot-com bubble burst.

Bitcoin’s positive correlation with stocks may hurt prices

Bitcoin has traded more like a stock than a traditional safe haven for much of the post-2020 period, often moving in the same direction as US equities, especially the tech-heavy Nasdaq.

As of Wednesday, the 20-week rolling correlation coefficient between the two markets was positive at 0.47.

Nasdaq Composite and BTC/USD’s 20-week correlation coefficient chart. Source: TradingView

If Buffett’s risk-off strategy is correct, then Bitcoin should see another crash alongside stocks. Fresh quantum-security concerns, war-driven inflation risks, and nearly 50% US recession odds are putting pressure on the BTC price.

Berkshire’s portfolio decisions have also leaned away from crypto-adjacent finance.

In the first quarter of 2025, the firm fully exited Nu Holdings, a crypto-friendly fintech company, after building its position in 2021 and 2022. It secured about $250 million in profits from these investments.

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Multiple analysts predict BTC’s price to drop to as low as $30,000 in 2026.