Fresh on-chain data indicates Bitcoin may be carving out a new phase of supply dynamics, with long-term holders expanding their wallets and fewer coins circulating on exchanges. By early April 2026, the total amount held by accumulating cohorts surpassed 4.37 million BTC, reflecting a sustained shift of supply into HODL-oriented addresses even as the price hovered below previous all-time highs.

The pattern coincides with a notable uptick in network activity and a stubborn drawdown in active short-term participation, painting a nuanced picture for traders and investors alike as the market contends with shifting liquidity and potential price implications.

Key takeaways

• Accumulating cohorts now hold about 4.37 million BTC as of April 7, with long-term wallets continuing to absorb supply into Q2 2026.
• Retail-investor accumulation added roughly 857,000 BTC, while accumulating-pattern wallets expanded by about 1.29 million BTC—both contributing to the broader growth in long-term holdings.
• Exchange inflows have cooled markedly, averaging roughly 300,000 to 350,000 BTC—far below the 1.2–1.5 million BTC ranges seen during prior expansion phases in 2023–2024.
• The Bitcoin network activity index climbed to about 3,600, up from 3,320 on March 22, moving above its 365-day moving average for the first time since December 2024 and entering a bull-phase classification for the first time since April 2025.
• Active-address momentum slumped to -0.25 on April 6, the lowest reading since 2018, suggesting diminished short-term participation and a market dominated by long-term holders.

Long-term wallets expand holdings, reshaping liquidity

According to CryptoQuant data, the cohorts that accumulate BTC in regular, capped-out flows have continued to grow in the first quarter of 2026. The total BTC held by these accumulating cohorts reached 4.37 million BTC as of April 7, a substantial rise from the 2 million BTC level observed in early 2024. This acceleration points to a deliberate shift of BTC away from liquid markets into long-term storage or strategic accumulation pockets.

Breaking down the composition, retail-investor-linked accumulation addresses added about 857,000 BTC, while accumulating-pattern wallets—defined as entities that steadily add BTC at recurring intervals with minimal outflows—expanded by roughly 1.29 million BTC. Collectively, these movements illustrate a persistent absorption of supply by patient holders, even as the price lingered below the $70,000 mark through Q1 2026.

By contrast, inflows from centralized exchanges and highly active addresses have cooled. In 2023–2024, inflows during expansion phases often exceeded 1.2–1.5 million BTC. In the latest period, inflows have averaged around 300,000–350,000 BTC, signaling a meaningful shift in how coins move between on-chain activity and exchange wallets.

Network activity metrics corroborate the macro shift

The CryptoQuant Bitcoin network activity index rose to about 3,600, up from 3,320 on March 22, underscoring a broad rebound in on-chain usage signals. The index, which aggregates transaction counts and network throughput, pushed above its 365-day moving average—the first time since December 2024 that it crossed that threshold and the first appearance in a “bull-phase” classification since April 2025.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s active addresses momentum slipped to -0.25 on April 6—the lowest level since 2018. The metric tracks the rate of change in active addresses, with negative readings indicating waning user participation. CryptoQuant notes that the low activity levels echo a period in 2024 that preceded a roughly 35% price correction, suggesting the market may be experiencing a period of consolidation or a longer-term rebalancing rather than immediate selling pressure.

Analysts have interpreted the data as signaling a market increasingly driven by long-term holders rather than short-term participants or “tourists.” Gaah, a CryptoQuant analyst cited in the data notes that the pattern reflects a sector where long-term accumulation dominates network activity, potentially reducing near-term sell pressure even as on-chain usage fluctuates.

Implications for investors: what changes, and what remains uncertain

The divergence between rising long-term holdings and cooling exchange inflows presents a nuanced risk-reward picture. If the trend toward accumulating wallets persists, liquidity available for rapid selling could tighten, potentially supporting a floor for BTC during periods of price hesitation. Historically, large pockets of long-term holding have coincided with periods of price resilience during broader market uncertainty.

However, the current combination of rising on-chain activity and thinning short-term participation warrants a careful read of price dynamics. While the data suggest that the market is gradually shifting away from high-frequency turnover, the actual price trajectory will still depend on macro factors, sentiment, and the pace of new adoption or regulatory developments. The latest readings imply a potential for renewed price stability or gradual upside, contingent on continued supply absorption and sustained on-chain engagement.

For market watchers, the next few quarters will be telling. Will long-term wallets continue the inflow that’s reshaping the liquid BTC supply, and will the lower frequency of exchange inflows translate into firmer price support? How new regulatory or macro developments influence retail participation and exchange flows remains an open question, even as the on-chain metrics point toward a more durable, holder-led regime.

Looking ahead, readers should monitor whether accumulation momentum maintains its pace into Q2 and beyond, and whether the network activity index can sustain its newly regained footing above the 365-day average. If the long-term holder community continues to swell while on-chain usage remains constructive, Bitcoin could see a gradual decoupling from the most frenetic short-term trading cycles—an outcome that would carry meaningful implications for both traders and long-term investors.

Binance founder Changpeng Zhao (CZ) says Sam Bankman-Fried asked him for “a couple of billion dollars nonchalantly, as if he were asking for a bologna sandwich” during the phone call that preceded Binance’s attempt to acquire FTX in November 2022, and that he never had any intention of going through with it.

“I didn’t have any interest in owning FTX. I also wasn’t that interested in helping SBF,” Zhao writes in his memoir Freedom of Money, released Tuesday. “But we may have to step in to protect the users and the industry.” He signed the non-binding Letter of Intent, he says, purely as a formality: “I was explicit that we were not making any commitment. Our team would simply assess the numbers and then decide.”

On the collapse itself, Zhao is clear about where it unraveled. When Alameda CEO Caroline Ellison publicly offered to buy Binance’s FTT holdings at $22 each — an attempt to stabilize the market — Zhao says she made “a fatal mistake.”

“She had just revealed her floor price,” he writes. Professional traders immediately shorted FTT through that level. The token fell to $15, then $10, then $5. Within 72 hours, $6 billion had exited FTX.

Zhao also discloses the existence of “Exchange Collaboration,” a Signal group set up by FTX’s Zane Tackett during the Terra/LUNA collapse earlier that year, which included Zhao, Bankman-Fried, Brian Armstrong of Coinbase, Jesse Powell of Kraken and others. The group later attracted scrutiny from DOJ and SEC investigators. “They were keen to find any possible hint of collusion or market manipulation between the exchanges,” Zhao writes. “Of course there was no such thing in this case.”

By Nov. 9, Binance had walked away from the deal. Binance’s own FTT holdings — worth $580 million at their peak — had become “basically worthless,” Zhao writes, echoing the company’s $1.6 billion LUNA wipeout six months earlier.

The aftermath brought a bank run on Binance, with $7 billion withdrawn in a single day on Dec. 14. Zhao says he spent that evening at dinner with friends. “I was not worried,” he writes. “All user funds were in our reserves.” Within a month, he says, users had deposited it all back — and more.

Bitcoin and U.S. stock futures surged Tuesday evening while oil prices collapsed after President Donald Trump confirmed a two-week ceasefire between Iran and the U.S. via Truth Social.

BTC, the leading cryptocurrency by market value, rose to a high of $72,699, up 5% in 24 hours, according to CoinDesk data. The broader market followed suit with the CoinDesk 20 Index jumping 5% to 2,034 points. Futures tied to the S&P 500 climbed 1.9%, while those linked to the tech-heavy Nasdaq popped 2.2%. Dow Jones futures jumped roughly 1.8%.

Meanwhile, the per-barrel price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude collapsed more than 10% to $95 alongside a similar decline in Brent oil.

The risk-on action followed a two-week suspension of a planned widespread bombing campaign against Iran.

“I agree to suspend the bombing and attack of Iran for a period of two weeks,” Trump wrote in a post to Truth Social Tuesday evening, just before his 8 p.m. ET deadline.

“This will be a double sided CEASEFIRE! The reason for doing so is that we have already met and exceeded all Military objectives, and are very far along with a definitive Agreement concerning Longterm PEACE with Iran, and PEACE in the Middle East.”

Iran confirmed the ceasefire, saying that t “if attacks against Iran are halted, our Powerful Armed Forces will cease their defensive operations.” It added that oil tankers could safely transit the Strait of Hormuz for two weeks via coordination with Iran’s armed forces and with due consideration to technical limitations.

“Iran also confirms a two-week ceasefire. But the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is somewhat muddled, with a warning of “technical limitations” and the need of “coordination” with the Iranian military. Still, it re-opens the flow of oil and LNG,” Javier Bias, Bloomberg’s opinion columnist covering energy and commodities, said on X.

For over a month, uncertainty tied to the Iran war kept risk assets under pressure. While bitcoin mostly traded choppy, its upside was persistently capped by the resulting oil rally, and inflation fears while spurring traders to seek bearish positioning in futures market.

The the latest upswing in prices has seen exchanges liquidate nearly $600 million in leveraged crypto futures positions. Of that amount, over $400 million came from bearish short bets.

This implies strong bullish momentum and a squeeze against short‑sellers, reinforcing upward pressure on the price as traders scram to cover their losing positions.

The latest AI news China Iran artificial intelligence military US bases geopolitics story escalated on April 5 when an ABC News exclusive revealed that the US Defense Intelligence Agency has confirmed Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is actively using AI-enhanced satellite imagery from a Chinese firm called MizarVision to identify, prioritize, and target US military installations across the Middle East.

The latest AI news China Iran artificial intelligence military US bases geopolitics threat took concrete form on April 5 when ABC News first reported that the US Defense Intelligence Agency had assessed Iran’s IRGC as actively exploiting satellite imagery datasets from MizarVision — a Chinese geospatial AI firm with approximately 5.5% Chinese government ownership — to improve the precision and tempo of missile and drone strikes against US and allied forces.

MizarVision’s platform integrates machine learning trained on military signatures, automatically classifying aircraft types, radar arrays, hardened shelters, fuel depots, command centers, and naval vessels based on shape, thermal patterns, and contextual indicators. The AI adds geospatial metadata tags that can be directly integrated into targeting software and command-and-control systems. Its stated mission is to “democratize and universalize geospatial intelligence” — a goal that US defense officials now say Iran has operationalized for warfare.

Traditional targeting intelligence collection, processing, analysis, and dissemination cycles take days. MizarVision’s AI reduces that to minutes by automatically generating tagged, geolocated target packages from commercially available satellite imagery. For Iran’s IRGC — which lacks the classified satellite constellation and imagery analysis units of a major power — this represents asymmetric capability: outsourcing targeting intelligence from a commercially accessible platform while maintaining operational plausibility.

DIA officials told ABC News that Iran is using these datasets not just to identify targets but to conduct pattern-of-life analysis, tracking deployment routines and periods of maximum vulnerability. That allows the IRGC to shift from broad saturation attacks toward selective strikes against air defense radars, maintenance shelters, and fuel storage facilities — the specific nodes that reduce US air combat effectiveness.

The Prince Sultan Air Base Sequence

The most alarming evidence centers on Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia. MizarVision published detailed posts identifying Patriot missile battery positions on February 24, and aircraft parking locations on February 27. On March 1, satellite imagery showed smoke rising from damaged sections of the base following an Iranian strike. US intelligence later confirmed one service member was seriously wounded and subsequently died.

The Geopolitical Dimension

MizarVision has also published imagery of Diego Garcia, Israeli positions, Australian naval movements, and TSMC’s semiconductor plant construction, extending the concern from conflict intelligence to strategic industrial surveillance. China officially maintains a neutral position on the Iran war. The firm operates within a Chinese government framework that analysts describe as providing Beijing “plausible deniability” — the ability to assist regional partners while avoiding direct military involvement.

As crypto.news reported, Iran has already struck tech and energy infrastructure across the Gulf as part of its asymmetric response strategy. As crypto.news noted, each confirmed escalation in the conflict has produced immediate crypto market sell-offs, with the AI targeting dimension now adding a new layer of unpredictability to any de-escalation timeline.

“Future wars will be shaped as much by who can interpret and weaponize data fastest as by who fields the most advanced missiles, aircraft, or air defense systems,” one GDC analyst assessed — a conclusion the MizarVision case has now made difficult to dispute.

Crypto markets retreated on Tuesday as President Donald Trump’s self-imposed deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz drew closer, dampening risk appetite across global markets.

Bitcoin is trading at $69,200, according to CoinGecko, recovering from an intraday dip below $68,000 but still well off Monday’s brief push above $70,000. Ethereum is changing hands at $2,112, while Solana trades at $82. XRP fell 1.6% to $1.32.

The total cryptocurrency market capitalization stands at approximately $2.45 trillion, down less than 1% in the past 24 hours.

Among the top 100 tokens by market cap, Rain (RAIN) led gainers with a 9.8% rise, followed by Zcash (ZEC), up 8% to $276. On the downside, Algorand (ALGO) dropped 7%, and Avalanche (AVAX) fell 6.2% to $8.75.

Iran Deadline Dominates Sentiment

Trump escalated his rhetoric early Tuesday, posting on Truth Social that “a whole civilization will die tonight” if Iran fails to comply with demands to reopen the critical shipping lane that handles roughly one-fifth of global oil and gas flows. Vice President J.D. Vance said the military objectives of the war in Iran have been achieved, but the administration’s ceasefire demands remain unmet.

U.S. equities ended the day mostly unchanged, while West Texas Intermediate crude held above $110 per barrel as fears of continued supply disruption weighed on energy markets.

Traders widely expect the Federal Reserve to hold rates steady at its April meeting, reflecting the view that wartime inflation will keep the central bank sidelined.

ETF Inflows Defy Risk-Off Mood

Despite the geopolitical turmoil, spot Bitcoin ETFs posted $471 million in net inflows on Monday, the largest single-day intake since Feb. 25, according to SoSoValue.

The figure sits well below January’s peak flow regime, when multiple trading days topped $700 million, but marks a notable acceleration after BTC and ETH ETFs reversed a multi-week outflow streak in late February. March saw $1.32 billion in total net inflows, coinciding with Bitcoin’s first green monthly candle in six months.

Liquidations and Derivatives

Bitcoin alone accounted for roughly $92 million in liquidations over the past 24 hours, according to CoinGlass. Liquidations were almost equally shared between long and short positions amid choppy trading.

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index sits at 11, deep in extreme-fear territory and near the lowest sustained readings since the Terra collapse in mid-2022.

Looking Ahead

The immediate catalyst for market direction is the 8 PM ET Iran deadline. Trump has repeatedly extended similar ultimatums in recent weeks, blunting their market impact, but the scale of rhetoric suggests tonight could break the pattern in either direction.

Bitcoin has been range-bound between $62,000 and $75,000 since early February. A resolution in the Strait of Hormuz standoff would likely trigger a relief rally across risk assets.

TLDR

• The number of Cardano whale wallets holding over 10 million ADA has reached a four-month high.
• Whale activity increased by 5.2% over the past nine weeks, despite ADA’s price remaining depressed.
• ADA’s price is 11% higher than its lowest point in February, but has not shown significant upward movement.
• Cardano’s network processed over 4 billion ADA in transactions, amounting to over $1 billion in on-chain volume.
• Large holders accumulated 220 million ADA in March, bringing their total holdings to nearly 14 billion tokens.

The number of wallets holding over 10 million ADA tokens has reached a four-month high of 424. According to Santiment, this marks a 5.2% rise over the past nine weeks, even though Cardano’s price remains subdued. Despite the increased whale activity, ADA continues to trade below its previous highs.

Cardano Whale Activity Shows Strong Accumulation

Recent data from Santiment reveals that ADA’s price is 11% higher than its February 5 low this year. However, the rise in whale activity has not led to an immediate price surge. Santiment suggests that if the accumulation persists while the price remains low, it could eventually lead to a bullish divergence.

Analytics platform TapTools reported a 4 billion ADA transaction volume over the last five days, equating to over $1 billion. This shows that the increased activity among whales is paralleled by rising network usage. Despite this, the price of ADA has not yet reacted positively, remaining stuck below key resistance levels.

ADA’s Struggles Continue Amid Increased Whale Holdings

Whale interest in Cardano has been noticeable for weeks, with analysts like Ali Martinez highlighting that large holders accumulated 220 million ADA in late March. These whales now hold nearly 14 billion ADA, making up around 37% of the total supply. However, ADA’s price continues to remain stagnant, trading at $0.24, a 42% decline in the past three months.

Even with the accumulation trend, ADA’s price remains 92% lower than its all-time high of over $3. Cardano’s recent performance in terms of trading volume also lags behind competitors like Solana and XRP, which processed $2.6 billion and $1.5 billion in transactions, respectively, over the same period. This shows that while whale activity is increasing, ADA’s broader market performance remains underwhelming.

Bearish Trend Persists Despite Growing Whale Interest

Despite the uptick in whale holdings, ADA continues to trade below its 50, 100, and 200-day exponential moving averages. This keeps the broader trend bearish, regardless of the accumulation. On Twitter, user gnarleyquinn raised concerns, suggesting that Cardano’s market dominance, which has dropped from 4.5% in 2021 to around 0.3% today, may lead to a decline in the coming years.

The ongoing price struggles show that Cardano has not decoupled from the broader altcoin market. While whales continue to accumulate, ADA’s future price movements remain uncertain. It remains to be seen whether the increasing accumulation will ultimately lead to a change in price dynamics for Cardano.