Bitcoin BTC$67,244.68 traders are finally taking the price selloff seriously. The cryptocurrency’s fear gauge, the BVIV index, shows it.

BVIV, which measures the 30-day implied or expected volatility in the cryptocurrency, surged nearly 20% on Tuesday to 46.45%. That’s the biggest single-day spike since Feb. 5, according to data source TradingView.

Here’s why it matters.

For roughly two months, the bitcoin market sentiment was calm. Even when BTC dropped from its early May high of $82,000 to $75,000 last week, the market sentiment barely flinched. The BVIV actually remained around its year-to-date low of 40% during that move.

In other words, it was orderly selling. No panic. But that changed Tuesday as BTC’s spot price fell over 6% to $66,000.

The BVIV index exploded with that price drop. The index is essentially a fear gauge. When it rises, traders are aggressively buying options to protect against further downside. Tuesday’s nearly 20% surge signals that protection buying is back.

To put Tuesday’s move in context: back on Feb. 5th, BVIV surged over 50% in a single day, hitting above 90% as bitcoin crashed toward $60,000. Tuesday’s jump is nowhere near that level. But the direction of the move is what traders should care about right now.

VIX like behavior

Think of BVIV like bitcoin’s version of Wall Street’s VIX fear gauge. Since U.S. bitcoin ETFs launched over two years ago, institutional players have flooded into the market. That institutionalization has created something interesting: BVIV now moves in the opposite direction of bitcoin’s spot price with increasing consistency. Price drops, fear spikes. Price rises, fear fades.

That’s a relatively new dynamic for crypto, but not so much on Wall Street, where the S&P 500 and its fear gauge, the VIX, have been inversely correlated for decades.

The takeaway is that after two months of unusual calm, fear is creeping back into the bitcoin market. Whether Tuesday’s spike is a one-day blip or the start of a sustained volatility regime remains to be seen.

Prediction market traders are increasingly wagering that bitcoin’s correction is far from over, even after the cryptocurrency tumbled toward $65,000 this week amid mounting pressure from ETF outflows and weakening institutional demand.

On Kalshi, traders currently assign a 66% probability that bitcoin drops below $55,000 this year and a 50% probability of sub-$50,000 prices. They also give a 31% chance that prices could even dip below $40,000.

Polymarket traders are expressing a similar view. Contracts on the platform imply a roughly 67% chance bitcoin falls below $55,000 this year and a better-than-even chance it drops under $50,000.

On prediction platform Polymarket, traders now give bitcoin only a 30% chance of outperforming gold in 2026. Gold is down approximately 1.5% in the last month but is up 33% in the last year while BTC is down around 37%.

This comes amid dwindling institutional appetite for the leading cryptocurrency. According to data from SoSo Value, traders withdrew $2.4 billion from U.S.-listed BTC ETFs in May and $1 billion in the first two trading days of June, with the record-breaking outflow continuing.

Meanwhile, K33 Research argues that bitcoin is also losing a battle for investor attention against artificial intelligence-related stocks. As CoinDesk previously reported, in a report on Tuesday, the firm said many investors view the opportunity cost of holding bitcoin as too high while AI-linked companies continue to post outsized gains and major equity indexes push to record highs.

“Much of the market views the opportunity cost of holding BTC as too high while anything AI-related soars,” K33’s Vetle Lunde wrote.

While K33 still views bitcoin as undervalued relative to equities over the long term, prediction markets suggest traders are increasingly positioning for lower prices before any recovery arrives.

While traders increasingly bet on lower bitcoin prices, capital does not appear to be leaving crypto entirely. Instead, it is increasingly moving into digital dollars.

USDT and USDC have both gained market share during bitcoin’s slide to $66,000, CoinDesk previously reported, a sign that traders are raising cash and waiting for better opportunities rather than immediately buying the dip.

Bitcoin continued its retreat on Wednesday as U.S. market activity began, slipping below $67,000 and printing as low as $66,948 on Bitstamp, its weakest level since early April. Across the crypto market, liquidations intensified, with 24-hour cross-asset liquidations approaching $1.25 billion, signaling a broad deleveraging pulse that erased months of gains.

Despite the move, traditional equities painted a contrary picture. The S&P 500 logged another record, highlighting a grim divergence between Bitcoin and broader risk assets as macro dynamics and liquidity considerations took center stage.

Analysts framed the price action as part of a familiar bear-flag narrative that has characterized prior downswings in this cycle. On X, trader Rekt Capital noted that macro risk-off behavior has investors shifting toward stablecoins, even as Bitcoin tests critical technical levels. Kalshi’s markets also reflected downside bets, with participants pricing in a potential retest of lower price bands. Meanwhile, voices in the community pointed to a crowded open interest backdrop that could amplify further moves if selling pressure persists.

Key takeaways

• Bitcoin dips below $67,000 and trades as low as $66,948 on Bitstamp, its lowest since early April.
• 24-hour liquidations total around $1.25 billion, underscoring a broad deleveraging across crypto markets.
• Bitcoin’s price action is viewed by some as a return to a bear-flag breakdown, suggesting further downside if supports fail.
• Analysts highlight a potential test of the 50-month exponential moving average near $66,250 as a key near-term target or pivot.
• Market positioning shows rising open interest and downside bets, with Kalshi pricing in risk of a deeper pullback and traders noting a split between crypto and stock market strength.

Bear-flag mechanics and key technicals

From a technical standpoint, BTC/USD has been revisiting the negative-pattern dynamics that defined earlier phases of the bear market. CollinTalksCrypto, a creator known for tracking chart-driven narratives, argued that the move mirrors a bear-flag breakdown rather than a unique pivot, reinforcing the notion that Bitcoin is in a broader corrective phase rather than signaling an imminent reversal. The argument centers on a flag-like consolidation that fails to sustain bullish momentum, followed by renewed downside pressure when support gives way.

The price dipped to roughly $66,948 on Bitstamp, an imprint that reopens discussion about how much weakness remains before a more decisive bounce—or a further breakdown. Traders watching the chart also note that such patterns often require patience, as relief rallies can be brief and quickly reabsorbed in a bear-market context.

Adding to the near-term complexity, analyst Rekt Capital highlighted the potential test of the 50-month exponential moving average around $66,250. He cautioned that even if a shallow bounce materializes on contact, the long-term trajectory could remain skewed to the downside if Bitcoin fails to establish a clear base above that EMA.

Positioning, open interest, and the macro backdrop

The sell-off comes amid a broader liquidity mosaic. Data suggest that a surge in open interest paired with elevated spot selling could sustain downward pressure, particularly if bitcoin breaks key supports. In parallel, market commentary from Kalshi signals bets around $50,000 as a plausible downside scenario, reinforcing the sense that participants are bracing for a range of outcomes in the near term.

On social channels, observers noted a paradox: while risk assets like the S&P 500 have continued to push higher, bitcoin has been softening, a dynamic described as a “grim divergence” by some traders. The disconnect has fed discussions about where crypto fits within macro portfolios and whether BTC will decouple from equity strength or remain tethered to the prevailing risk-off environment.

“Investors are macro risk-off, fleeing into stablecoins and moving away from Bitcoin,” remarked trader Rekt Capital, highlighting the flow shift amid ongoing macro uncertainty.

Critically, some observers pointed to the possibility that a wave of open interest could intensify any subsequent move. Exitpump, a market observer on X, warned that record open interest has contributed to an “insane amount of spot selling,” increasing the risk of a sharp downward leg if liquidity supplies dwindle. A fellow analyst, Exitpump, echoed the sentiment, suggesting the downside could extend into the low 60s or even the mid-50s if selling accelerates and buyers retreat from the market.

What to watch next

Looking ahead, traders will be focused on whether BTC can establish a foothold above the key mid-60k zone and how quickly volatility responds to incoming liquidity cues. The interaction between price, open interest, and order-book depth will likely shape the near-term path, with the 66,250–66,500 region serving as a critical test for the bears’ control. If BTC sustains a move back above the 50-month EMA, a cautious, data-driven bounce could materialize; otherwise, the path of least resistance may remain toward the lower-$60k territory in the near term.

Readers should monitor how Kalshi’s downside scenarios evolve, how open interest shifts in the coming sessions, and whether any macro catalysts—ranging from central-bank signaling to liquidity shifts—alter the balance between risk-on optimism and risk-off caution in digital assets.

Bitcoin’s latest leg down reinforces the notion that the bear market still dominates price action, but the exact trajectory remains uncertain. As always, traders are urged to weigh risk carefully, diversify exposures, and follow developments that could alter the prevailing technical and macro narrative.

Strive expanded its Bitcoin treasury again after buying 2,500 BTC for about $185.2 million this week. The purchase lifted its total holdings to 19,000 BTC and strengthened its corporate Bitcoin position. The move also came as the firm increased capital plans through its ASST and SATA programs.

Strive Adds 2,500 Bitcoin to Its Treasury

Strive bought the latest Bitcoin batch at an average price of about $74,092 per coin. The firm disclosed the acquisition after its chief executive, Matthew Cole, shared the update on Tuesday. The purchase added fresh scale to a treasury strategy built around steady Bitcoin accumulation.

The latest transaction followed another recent purchase of 1,109 BTC for roughly $85.4 million. That earlier deal carried an average purchase price near $76,988 per Bitcoin. Therefore, the new acquisition came at a lower average cost than the prior disclosed purchase.

Strive now holds 19,000 BTC, according to the latest company update and treasury tracking data. The firm also reported a quarterly Bitcoin yield of 23% and a year-to-date yield of 36.7%. In addition, Cole said Strive raised its cash position and maintained an 18-month dividend reserve.

Bitcoin Strategy Expands Through ASST and SATA

The Bitcoin purchase came after Strive outlined plans to expand its fundraising capacity. Cole said the company expects to increase both ASST and SATA at-the-market programs by $2.1 billion each. As a result, the two programs could add $4.2 billion in combined capital capacity.

The expanded programs would give Strive more room to fund future Bitcoin purchases. It would also support its broader balance sheet strategy as demand for both securities rises. However, the company has not confirmed the exact use of every future fundraising dollar.

Data from Bitcoin Treasuries showed that Strive’s SATA raised about $194.3 million during the past week. That figure sits near the value of the newly disclosed Bitcoin purchase. Therefore, the timing suggests the recent capital raise may have supported the latest reserve expansion.

Corporate Bitcoin Market Shows a Sharp Contrast

Strive’s new purchase arrived as Strategy reported a rare reduction in its Bitcoin holdings. A Monday filing showed Strategy sold about $2.5 million worth of Bitcoin during the past week. The sale drew market attention because Strategy remains the largest corporate Bitcoin holder.

Strategy also focused earlier on repurchasing $1.5 billion in convertible notes instead of adding more Bitcoin. That action marked a different capital approach from Strive’s continued accumulation plan. Meanwhile, Michael Saylor reacted to Strive’s update and kept the focus on corporate Bitcoin adoption.

The contrast shows how public companies now manage Bitcoin exposure through different treasury decisions. Strive continues to raise capital and increase its BTC reserve during market weakness. Strategy, however, has recently balanced its treasury activity with debt and limited Bitcoin sales.

Background Behind Strive’s Bitcoin Buildout

Strive has positioned Bitcoin as a central part of its corporate asset strategy. The firm has used equity programs and treasury metrics to frame its balance sheet expansion. This approach mirrors a wider trend among companies using Bitcoin as a reserve asset.

Corporate Bitcoin holders often use market pullbacks to expand their reserves at lower average prices. Strive’s latest purchase fits that pattern because it followed a weaker Bitcoin trading period. The firm also bought below the average price of its previous disclosed acquisition.

The company’s growing Bitcoin reserve now places it among the larger public corporate holders. Its next moves may depend on liquidity, capital access, and Bitcoin market conditions. For now, Strive has reinforced its position as an active Bitcoin treasury firm.

TapTools, a Cardano-focused real-time analytics platform, has begun winding down after its fifth top-level executive departure, compounding leadership instability and making continued operations unsustainable. 

TapTools said in a post to X on Tuesday that it would begin winding down over the next two weeks, and noted the departure of its two co-founders, chief operating officer and chief technology officer earlier this year.

“We worked hard to adapt,” TapTools said, adding that its backend developer had become its CTO as the platform shifted its focus toward shipping products more sustainably; however, they have since departed, and “the technical knowledge required to responsibly operate and maintain TapTools cannot be replaced overnight.”

Source: TapTools

TapTools launched in 2022 and became one of the most widely used tools for Cardano users to track token prices, decentralized finance activity and discover new projects.

The wind-down follows a similar move by Cardano-based nonfungible token marketplace, JPG.Store, which permanently shut down on May 23.

TapTools’ closure comes three days after the Cardano Foundation said its annual conference was cancelled this year after its governance community shot down a revised proposal seeking to fund the event with treasury tokens.

TapTools said the economics of running the platform were another key factor in its decision to wind down.

“Infrastructure costs are real. Development costs are real. Support costs are real. Operating a platform that serves the ecosystem at scale is expensive.”

Related: Cardano can now be used to pay at 137 Spar stores across Switzerland 

TapTools said it remains open to acquisition or external funding to sustain operations.

Cardano creator expects more protocol wind-downs

Cardano creator Charles Hoskinson took some of the blame for TapTools’ wind-down, saying in a video shared to X that he expected a lot of protocols to collapse in the current bear market and that he came up with a plan to “bail out” struggling projects.

“I came up with the plan of an index. It did not get executed,” Hoskinson said.

Hoskinson added that Cardano’s governance community could have helped some of these projects, but opted not to.

Magazine: Big Questions: Do we really only need 2–5 cryptocurrencies? 

TLDR:

• NewLimit Series C raised $435M led by Founders Fund for longevity biotech expansion and clinical readiness.
• Startup targets epigenetic reprogramming therapies aimed at restoring youthful function in aged human cells.
• First-in-human trials for lead liver cell program are planned for next year after recent breakthrough results.
• Funding brings major VC backing as NewLimit scales research toward regulated human clinical applications.

NewLimit Series C funding has closed at $435 million, marking a major capital injection into longevity biotech. The round was led by Founders Fund with participation from several new and returning investors. 

The company was co-founded by Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong and focuses on cellular age reprogramming. NewLimit now prepares to advance its first human trials for age-related therapies next year.

NewLimit Series C Funding Backed by Founders Fund and Global Investors

NewLimit Series C attracted strong backing from high-profile venture firms. Founders Fund led the round with a $435 million commitment.

Thrive Capital, Greenoaks, and Quiet Capital joined as new investors. Existing backers also increased exposure to the biotech startup.

Kleiner Perkins and Eli Lilly Ventures returned alongside other participants. Wu Blockchain reported the funding details alongside NewLimit’s announcement.

NewLimit confirmed continued collaboration with Abstract VC, NFDG, and Valor. The company said investor support strengthens its research timeline.

NewLimit Series C positions the firm deeper into longevity biotech development. The company builds therapies that target cellular aging mechanisms.

It focuses on epigenetic reprogramming to restore function in aged cells. Early research concentrates on human liver cell regeneration programs.

Data shared by NewLimit indicates progress in preclinical validation stages. The firm aims to translate findings into clinical applications.

The funding round expands operational capacity for research and development. It also supports preparation for regulated clinical environments.

NewLimit Series C Advances Human Trials for Epigenetic Reprogramming

NewLimit Series C funding supports a clear shift toward human testing. The company plans first-in-human trials for next year.

The lead program targets reprogramming aged human cells into more youthful states. Researchers focus on restoring functional biological activity at the cellular level.

NewLimit stated that breakthrough results enabled the transition into clinical readiness. The firm continues refining its therapeutic approach for safety and efficacy.

The company uses epigenetic reprogramming as its central scientific method. This approach seeks to reset cellular age markers without altering DNA sequences.

NewLimit’s research model integrates biotech and advanced computational biology methods. Teams analyze cellular behavior changes under reprogramming conditions.

The startup builds its pipeline around longevity medicine applications. It prioritizes therapies aimed at age-related decline and organ function loss.

According to company updates, liver cell rejuvenation remains the first clinical target. Additional indications may follow after initial trial outcomes.

The funding strengthens infrastructure for scaling laboratory and clinical operations. It also accelerates regulatory preparation for upcoming trials.

Crypto is turning into a “contrarian bet” as institutional investors are being drawn to artificial intelligence stocks, says Bitwise chief investment officer Matt Hougan.

“The crypto market is brutal right now,” Hougan wrote in a market note on Tuesday. “One major reason is that crypto is no longer the belle of the ball. AI stocks, robotics companies, SpaceX … who needs crypto when the Nasdaq-100 is up 43% year-over-year?”

“With AI sucking all the oxygen out of the room, crypto is being forced to go through a painful metamorphosis: from momentum trade to contrarian bet.”

Stocks linked to companies involved in AI have skyrocketed as the technology has captured investor attention after OpenAI launched ChatGPT to the public in late 2022. Shares in Nvidia, which makes computing components key to AI, have gained nearly 1,500% since ChatGPT’s launch.

Hougan argued that contrarian bets can be great investments, but their payoff pattern is “usually spotty.”

“Momentum investments are fun. They surf along waves of excitement. Contrarian bets, by comparison, are a grind, requiring patience, a long-term orientation, and a focus on fundamentals,” he added.

“Investors still believe in crypto, but now that it’s a contrarian bet, they favor fundamentals over vibes.”

LVRG Research director Nick Ruck told Cointelegraph that while AI continues to dominate institutional portfolios, “crypto is quietly emerging as the true contrarian bet for sophisticated investors seeking directional upside in a maturing market.” 

“This shift away from hype toward fundamentals is being fueled by real adoption metrics, regulatory clarity, and on-chain utility rather than speculative bets.” 

Related: Bitcoin losses by holder cohort hit new highs: Will traders defend $60K?

Hougan said that this bear market is different because, unlike past crypto cycles where Bitcoin was the safe haven, money is moving into smaller assets with strong fundamentals such as Hyperliquid, Zcash and Stellar.

This is how the contrarian bet is playing out, he said. “When crypto stops being a momentum trade, fundamentals start to matter — and this rotation is proof it’s already underway.”

Hougan also argued that it is a sign that we are closer to the end of the bear market than the beginning. 

“In the heart of a crypto winter, everything’s red. When the green starts to look like real growth, the season is changing.”

That bear market end seems a long way off at the moment, with markets dumping a further 5.3% on the day, sending total market capitalization down to $2.38 trillion, 46% below its October peak.

Total crypto capitalization tanks to a two-month low. Source: TradingView

Magazine: Big Questions: Do we really only need 2–5 cryptocurrencies?

Brazil’s central bank has added mandatory independent audits to the licensing approval process for crypto service providers in the country.

According to the published rules cited in the report, crypto firms applying for authorization, or renewing an existing license, must submit an independent auditor’s report as part of their regulatory filing. The rules state that the audit must be carried out by professionals registered with Brazil’s securities regulator, the Comissão de Valores Mobiliários.

Brazil adds audit requirement for crypto licenses

Under the new requirement, auditors will review whether crypto service providers have key compliance systems in place before the central bank grants authorization. The report said those checks will cover anti-money laundering controls, counter-terrorism financing procedures, customer asset segregation, internal risk management, and employee compliance programs.

Firms that fail those checks could face difficulty securing approval to operate, according to the same report. For crypto platforms already active in Brazil, the added review means licensing will now depend on outside verification of internal controls, not just documents submitted directly to the regulator.

The central bank has not released the expected audit costs. Compliance experts cited in the report said independent reviews can cost tens of thousands of dollars, and larger reviews may run into hundreds of thousands of dollars, depending on transaction volume, custody arrangements, and company size.

Smaller platforms face higher compliance pressure

Large exchanges may be able to absorb the new cost, according to the report, but smaller crypto platforms and startups could face a heavier burden. The added expense comes as Brazil continues to build a more demanding rulebook for virtual asset firms.

Brazil approved its first legal framework for virtual assets in 2022. One year later, the federal government appointed the central bank as the main regulator for crypto service providers, giving the institution a central role in licensing and supervision.

In 2025, watchdogs added licensing rules covering custody standards, anti-money laundering controls, stablecoin oversight, and corporate governance obligations. The authority also gave existing providers until October 2026 to comply with the new framework.

Brazil expands crypto rulebook

The latest audit rule adds another layer to a framework that already covers licensing, custody, Travel Rule compliance, stablecoin supervision, and self-hosted wallet monitoring, according to the report.

For global crypto exchanges, Brazil remains an important market despite the added rules. A Chainalysis report cited in the story said Brazil processed about $318 billion in crypto transactions in 2024 and 2025, placing the country among the world’s major digital asset markets.

The rule change has arrived during a weaker period for the global crypto market. The report said Bitcoin fell more than 10% over seven days and traded at $68,960 at press time.