Digital assets are attempting to decouple from a complex macro environment following a dramatic sequence of central bank shifts, headlined by the Bank of Japan’s historic push to 1.0% interest rates and newly appointed Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s restructured FOMC policy framework.

Traders enter the week balancing an apparent drop in concerns over energy-driven inflation against a stark warning of tighter liquidity in the near-term.

While the official signing of the U.S.-Iran peace treaty provides relief by opening the Strait of Hormuz, it’s also stripped haven assets of their immediate momentum. Instead, capital is reorganizing around a heavy U.S. data cluster, with the market bracing for Thursday’s crucial Core PCE print to evaluate the trajectory of consumer inflation.

With the bitcoin BTC$64,465.85 price stabilizing above major psychological support at $64,000, the macro weight that pressed on digital assets for months may finally be dissipating.

What to Watch

(All times ET)

• Crypto
  • June 22: The U.S. SEC and CFTC open their newly issued joint public comment window targeting data reporting frameworks. The 60-day window invites industry feedback to harmonize and streamline regulatory reporting across swap and digital-asset derivatives markets.
• Macro
  • June 23, 4:00 a.m: Eurozone Flash Manufacturing and Services PMIs for June
  • June 25, 8:30 a.m: U.S. Final Q1 GDP growth annualized est. 1.6% (Prev. 1.6%)
  • June 25, 8:30 a.m: U.S. May Core PCE Price Index YoY est. 3.3% (Prev. 3.3%); MoM est. 0.24% (Prev. 0.2%)
  • June 25, 8:30 a.m: U.S. Initial Jobless Claims for period ending June 20 est. 224K (Prev. 226K)
• Earnings

Token Events

• Governance Votes & Calls
  • Lido DAO is voting on various network matters, including approving the Staking Router v3 architecture, migrating to upgraded community and curated staking modules to support the Ethereum Pectra hard fork, winding down simple DVT clusters, revoking specific multichain bridge endpoints, and appointing a new director for the Lido Labs Foundation. Voting ends June 22.
  • Ssv.network DAO is voting on a proposal to conclude its Incentivized Mainnet Program for validator clusters paying network fees in SSV on June 30. The transition framework offers full rewards for July to any SSV cluster that migrates to an ETH-denominated cluster. Voting ends June 23.
  • Goldfinch DAO is voting on a proposal to begin an orderly wind-down of Goldfinch Prime and transition the protocol into a “maintenance mode” focused solely on managing the recovery and collection of remaining legacy borrower pool payments. Voting ends June 23.
  • GnosisDAO is voting on a “treasury redemption” proposal that allows GNO holders to voluntarily exchange their tokens for a pro-rata distribution of the DAO’s liquid assets at net asset value (NAV), along with a discounted share of capital called by GnosisVC. Voting ends June 26.
• Unlocks
  • June 22: MegaETH Bridge (MEGA) to unlock 2.5% of its circulating supply worth $13.71 million.
    June 23: Toncoin (TON) to unlock 0.72% of its circulating supply worth $59.63 million.
  • June 24: Humanity (H) to unlock 2.93% of its circulating supply worth $52.67 million.
• Token launches

Conferences

The Bank of England officially reversed its controversial proposal to limit how much stablecoin individuals and consumers could hold, bowing to pressure from a U.K. House of Lords committee and the crypto industry.

The central bank said it will abandon its plans to impose a £20,000 ($27,000) holding limit on individuals and a £10 million limit on corporations, in a statement on Monday, Instead, the BOE is pivoting to a macro-level “temporary issuance guardrail,” capping the total circulation of any single systemic stablecoin at £40 billion ($50.6 billion).

The central bank also lowered to 30% the amount of backing assets in central deposits yielding no interest they require issuers of stablecoins, digital currency pegged to fiat, to have. This allows for stablecoin firms permitting companies to allocate up to 70% of their reserves into yield-generating, short-term U.K. government debt (T-bills) with maturities under six months, according to the statement.

While issuers can harvest yield from these T-bills, the BoE is strictly banning companies from paying interest or dividends directly to users for simply holding the stablecoin. However, the bank is explicitly permitting activity-based rewards, such as cash-back tokens or loyalty points linked directly to payment transactions via Web3 apps.

Bank of America has projected three Federal Reserve interest-rate hikes this year, adding to concerns that tighter monetary policy could create fresh pressure for Bitcoin and other risk assets.

According to a Reuters report, Bank of America Global Research now expects the Federal Reserve to raise rates by 25 basis points at its September, October, and December meetings, bringing the policy rate to a range of 4.25%-4.50% by year-end.

The forecast represents a sharp departure from the bank’s earlier expectation that rates would remain unchanged throughout the year. The revised outlook arrives as investors prepare for the release of the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures inflation report, the Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation.

Economists surveyed ahead of the June 24 release expect headline PCE inflation to rise 0.5% month-over-month in May after a 0.4% increase in April. Annual inflation is expected to accelerate to 4.1% from 3.8%, while core PCE is forecast to increase 0.3% on a monthly basis and 3.4% from a year earlier.

A stronger-than-expected reading could reinforce expectations that policymakers will keep borrowing costs elevated for longer or even tighten policy further.

Wall Street forecasts point to a more hawkish Fed

In explaining its revised outlook, Bank of America said the Federal Reserve appears more focused on inflation risks than previously anticipated.

The bank wrote that the Fed’s June economic projections and comments from Chair Kevin Warsh suggested policymakers were operating with a more hawkish reaction function than earlier estimates indicated.

Another large institution has moved in a similar direction. Per the Reuters report, Deutsche Bank has also adopted a more hawkish outlook, forecasting two quarter-point rate hikes this year in September and December.

The bank additionally outlined a scenario in which policymakers could consider a July increase, while noting that easing energy prices and improving inflation expectations may reduce the need for immediate action.

A separate forecast from BNP Paribas points to additional tightening as well. As previously reported by crypto.news, the French bank expects three rate hikes beginning in December after abandoning its prior assumption that policy would remain unchanged.

BNP Paribas linked its outlook to resilient labor-market conditions, stronger-than-expected employment data, and rising inflation pressures that it partly associates with the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict. The bank also projected the unemployment rate could fall toward 4% by year-end, potentially giving policymakers more room to concentrate on inflation.

Bitcoin traders watch inflation and rate signals

Recent pricing in prediction and futures markets shows investors remain divided on the Fed’s next move.

Data from Kalshi indicates a 22% probability of a rate increase in July, while a pause remains the most likely outcome. Separately, CME FedWatch data shows traders assigning a 51.7% probability to a quarter-point hike at the September meeting.

Market-based expectations also point toward tighter policy. According to LSEG pricing data, traders have priced in approximately 41.2 basis points of additional tightening over the course of the year.

Higher interest rates typically reduce liquidity available for speculative investments while increasing the appeal of yield-bearing assets such as U.S. Treasuries. Because of that relationship, digital assets often face pressure when investors anticipate tighter monetary conditions.

Bitcoin (BTC) has recently traded within the $64,000-$65,000 range despite improving geopolitical sentiment following developments related to the U.S.-Iran situation. With inflation data due this week and major banks raising their forecasts for future rate increases, traders are closely watching whether incoming economic data strengthens the case for additional Fed tightening. 

Crypto-backed political groups have spent at least $7 million on key Democratic primary races as lawmakers continue negotiating the CLARITY Act ahead of an increasingly crowded congressional calendar.

According to reports on recent campaign spending, crypto political action committees have increased their activity ahead of several Democratic primaries while lawmakers continue negotiating the CLARITY Act in Washington.

Among the largest beneficiaries is Maryland State Delegate Adrian Boafo, who is seeking to succeed retiring Congressman Steny Hoyer in Maryland’s 5th Congressional District. Protect Progress, an affiliate of Fairshake, has spent roughly $5.5 million supporting Boafo’s campaign, making him one of the most heavily funded crypto-backed candidates in the current election cycle.

Facing more than 20 Democratic opponents, Boafo currently leads prediction market rankings. His campaign has also secured endorsements from Hoyer, Maryland Governor Wes Moore, and Senator Angela Alsobrooks. Alsobrooks has been involved in discussions surrounding federal digital asset legislation, including both the GENIUS Act and the CLARITY Act.

Commenting on his policy priorities, Boafo has also positioned himself as a supporter of digital asset and blockchain policy initiatives.

“I’m proud to be a strong advocate for policies that create new economic opportunities for Marylanders in the 5th Congressional District, and digital assets are no exception.”

Crypto PACs increase pressure through campaign spending

Elsewhere on the East Coast, Protect Progress has directed approximately $1.5 million toward the reelection campaign of Representative Ritchie Torres in New York’s 15th Congressional District. Torres has long supported cryptocurrency policy initiatives and helped establish the Congressional Crypto Caucus.

Additional backing has come from Fellowship PAC, which has reportedly spent around $300,000 on advertising supporting Torres ahead of Tuesday’s Democratic primary.

The latest expenditures follow Fairshake’s largest spending effort of the election season. Earlier in the cycle, the crypto-focused political network committed roughly $12 million to Alabama’s Republican Senate primary runoff in support of Representative Barry Moore.

Taken together, the campaigns demonstrate how crypto-funded political organizations are continuing to deploy significant capital in congressional races while federal lawmakers debate the future structure of digital asset regulation.

CLARITY negotiations continue as lawmakers seek support

At the same time, attention in Washington remains fixed on the CLARITY Act, a proposal designed to establish a regulatory framework for digital assets in the U.S.

According to Crypto In America, lawmakers are still working through issues related to committee language, ethics provisions, and safeguards against illicit finance. Several Senate meetings have been scheduled as negotiations continue.

White House crypto adviser Patrick Witt and Senator Bill Hagerty have both expressed optimism that progress can be made before lawmakers leave for the July 4 recess. Industry organizations are also increasing their engagement with policymakers.

This week, the Digital Chamber has organized meetings between member companies and lawmakers in an effort to build support for the legislation. Speaking to Crypto In America, Digital Chamber CEO Cody Carbone said urgency is growing as available legislative time continues to shrink.

Separate comments from Senate Agriculture Committee Chairman John Boozman suggest that educating lawmakers remains a significant hurdle. As previously reported by crypto.news, Boozman said after a June 18 Senate meeting that many members still do not fully understand the legislation, complicating efforts to build support across the chamber.

Because much of the proposal falls under the Agriculture Committee’s jurisdiction, the panel has become central to ongoing negotiations.

Senate offices continue to work through unresolved sections of the bill as congressional leaders face pressure to settle outstanding issues before lawmakers depart Washington for the August recess.

Bitcoin BTC$64,544.53 has risen 1.4% since midnight UTC, catching a tailwind as hopes for an Iran-U.S. deal sent oil prices lower. The move provided a lift to major altcoins, with ether (ETH) adding 2.4% and solana (SOL) and BNB advancing about 1.5%. XRP lagged with a 0.7% gain.

Despite the green shoots among the majors, the broader market has yet to follow suit. The CoinDesk 20 Index (CD20) remains slightly lower over 24 hours. Still, smaller outliers like DEXE and BEAT jumped of 8% and 5%.

Monday’s bounce, however, is being met with heavy skepticism from some analysts, particularly when comparing bitcoin’s price with its simple moving average (SMA).

“BTC has clawed back to $64K but nothing behind it. The 200-week SMA near $62.2K held the weekend dips, and that line with the $60K shelf is what separates a base from a deeper leg, while $66K to $68K caps the upside,” analysts at Marx said in an email.

“We buy near the 200 week and sell into resistance, we do not chase the middle,” they added.

UK Prime Minister Sir Kier Starmer has today announced that he’s to step down as leader of the Labour party, triggering a leadership contest that will likely result in the former Mayor of Greater Manchester and member of Parliament for Makerfield Andy Burnham being handed the keys to 10 Downing Street.

Burnham won a key local election last week in the Makerfield constituency, a victory perceived to be an indicator of public appetite for his role as Labour leader.

But what does Burnham know about crypto?

Burnham attended a crypto event in Manchester in 2024 that was hosted by local crypto group Manchester Blockchain Alliance and Coinbase-backed crypto lobbying firm Stand With Crypto.

In a nine-minute speech, he spoke about the importance of expanding the digital sector in the city, the benefits of crypto’s tendency to “disrupt,” and how young people need to be able to see the job opportunities crypto can provide.

Read more: Russia offered crypto to firebomb Sir Keir Starmer’s home, report

He said that Manchester could become a “web3 powerhouse,” and that when it comes to marrying economic progress with social progress, “web3 could be the democratisation of it all.”

Despite noting that his understanding of crypto is “rudimentary,” he said, “I’m in, I’m bought in, I love the sound of it.”

Stand With Crypto has its own crypto position checkers for politicians and claims that both Burnham and Starmer have “no stance” on crypto. This is despite their public statements on the sector. 

Farage still dogged by billionaire backing scandal

Burnham has already found himself embroiled in the controversy surrounding Nigel Farage’s £5 million gift from billionaire Tether investor Christopher Harborne.

Indeed, in a now deleted post, Farage used AI to depict immigrants in a dinghy holding placards in support of Burnham. Farage claimed Burnham acted “for them.” 

In response, Burnham noted that Farage was “getting desperate,” and said, “Maybe keep your crypto millions for something else.”

Read more: Nigel Farage accused of undervaluing Christopher Harborne jet loan by $666K

Days before this comment, Burnham also said that “the crypto money is kicking in” when responding to a user that claimed their social media feed was negatively geared against him because “power brokers are clearly paying the big bucks to keep [Burnham] out.”

Burnham’s comments were made one month after Farage was revealed to have accepted £5 million ($6.6 million) from Harborne. 

Farage kept the sum a secret and maintains that it didn’t have to be declared as it was a personal gift for security and helping to deliver Brexit. 

Harborne has donated over £25 million ($33 million) to Reform UK. These donations were partly why the UK, under Starmer’s leadership, introduced a cap on political donations from overseas donors in March. 

Burnham thinks cap on donations is right

Burnham told Byline Times that he would welcome a cap, noting that he would’ve started higher than the £100,000 ($132,000) cap currently set and reduce it over time. 

He said a cap would help stop the “perception of any one party being unduly influenced or swayed by one person or organisation.”

Alongside this donation cap, the UK also introduced a temporary ban on political crypto donations until UK regulation catches up.

The most recent crypto regulations came from the Bank of England today. The bank relaxed its proposed stablecoin regulation, dropping plans to cap the amount an individual can hold and instead introducing a £40 billion ($53 billion) issuance limit for each stablecoin.

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