A contributor to Goldfinch, a crypto loan program for Africa, claims tens of millions of dollars worth of loans have defaulted, in addition to over $300 million in market capitalization losses from the project’s peak.

Goldfinch was supposed to be crypto’s gift to Africa’s unbanked, however, its proprietary token, GFI, is down 99.8% from its high.

Backed by Andreessen Horowitz (a16z), the so-called decentralized lending protocol was supposed to bring financial inclusion to emerging markets. Instead, it simply funneled money to borrowers who largely stopped paying it back.

“These idiots mismanaged over $50 million of our money,” one Goldfinch depositor wrote on June 19. “Out of eight borrowers — two are in default and six in restructuring. Basically money is gone.”

GFI, the protocol’s token, was trading at its all-time high of $32.94 on January 11, 2022. It now trades 99.8% lower, below $0.07.

The project’s market capitalization as recently as April 2024 exceeded $390 million. It’s less than $6 million today.

Do-gooders pitch crypto for Africa

Goldfinch launched in 2021 with a mission statement built for a TED talk. It would expand access to capital for ostensibly creditworthy businesses that the developed world’s banks refused to touch. 

Co-founders Mike Sall and Blake West, both formerly of Coinbase, leaned hard on the language of financial inclusion.

Borrowers spanned 18 countries, from a Kenyan motorcycle taxi company to a paycheck advance company in Nigeria. 

Even Impact Water for schoolchildren was a recipient. Who could object?

Unfortunately, disappearing money, not clean water for kids, is the main story of Goldfinch. 

Read more: Central African Republic’s -95% memecoin crash is a repeat performance

VCs support Goldfinch, get token allocations

Crypto-promoting VC giant a16z led Goldfinch’s $25 million round in January 2022. Coinbase Ventures, SV Angel, BlockTower, and hedge fund manager Bill Ackman also backed the project. 

Unlike almost every other impact organization, Goldfinch minted a token, GFI, which had liquidity for selling to retail believers.

A16z praised Goldfinch’s $38 million in loans and pointed to “a huge global need for access to capital.” By mid-2022, Goldfinch had deployed over $100 million in active loans to over 200,000 borrowers.

One pool captured the pitch in miniature. The Cauris Fund marketed African fintech exposure, where Goldfinch’s capital would supposedly fund fintechs across the continent to expand financial inclusion for tens of millions of disenfranchised borrowers.

Since that pitch, the price of GFI is down 98%.

What actually happened to the money

Underwriting, not crypto, is almost always the reason a loan book goes bad. Underwriters, not blockchain technologies, vet offline information and qualify creditworthy borrowers who can actually afford to repay.

In October 2021, Goldfinch lent $5 million to Tugende Kenya, a motorcycle taxi financier. Goldfinch then discovered the borrower had quietly funneled $1.9 million to its struggling Ugandan parent, in breach of the loan terms. 

Goldfinch’s loan facility was written down before a restructuring eventually clawed part of it back to recoup some of the loss.

Another $20 million facility for Stratos left roughly $7 million impaired.

Soon, Singapore-based borrower Lend East repaid only $4.25 million of Goldfinch’s $10.15 million loan in April 2024. Lend East defaulted on the rest. 

As default rates rose in Africa and elsewhere, Goldfinch’s cumulative losses rose past $18 million. As optimism about its underwriting turned to pessimism, GFI lost four-fifths of its value from 2022-2024.

Earlier this month, Bitmine raised roughly $274 million through the sale of 3.5 million shares of 9.50% Series A Perpetual Preferred Stock. The preferred shares, which trade on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker BMNP, pay weekly cash dividends.

Lee has argued that the company’s staking operation provides recurring cash flow to support those obligations. Bitmine currently has 4.72 million ETH staked — more than 83% of its holdings.

The company projects annualized staking revenue of roughly $223 million, with potential staking rewards reaching $268 million annually through its MAVAN staking platform.

The firm announced another round of scheduled dividend payments extending through August, paying $0.1847 per shares.

Crypto spring

Lee reiterated his view that the crypto market is in the early stages of a recovery from the downturn that began with the October 2025 liquidation shock.

At Consensus Miami last month, he argued the bear market would be “definitely” over if bitcoin closed May above $76,000. Instead, BTC finished the month below $74,000 before briefly falling under $60,000 in early June.

Still, Lee said the recent pullback has not changed his broader outlook.

“We believe we are in the early stages of crypto spring,” he said.

Lee also reaffirmed his long-term bullish stance on Ethereum, arguing that growing demand from tokenization and artificial intelligence applications will drive adoption of the network in the years ahead.

Mining economics have deteriorated in 2026, the analysts noted, with bitcoin trading below its estimated production cost for five consecutive months. Citing CoinShares’ first-quarter mining report, JPMorgan said roughly 20% of miners are currently estimated to be unprofitable.

Financial pressure has prompted miners to sell more bitcoin holdings. Publicly traded mining companies liquidated more than 32,000 BTC in the first quarter, exceeding their combined sales for all of 2025, according to data cited by the report.

As a result, even relatively small price moves are increasingly affecting network activity. When bitcoin falls below production costs, higher-cost operators tend to shut down equipment, causing hashrate to decline and mining difficulty to adjust lower. The bank pointed to the second week of June, when mining difficulty dropped 10%, the second decline of that magnitude this year.

Looking ahead, the analysts expect heightened sensitivity in hashrate and mining difficulty to persist as long as bitcoin remains below its estimated production cost, which the bank currently puts at about $78,000. The world’s laregst cryptocurrency was trading around $64,700 at publication time.

Bitcoin miners are increasingly turning to artificial intelligence and high-performance computing (HPC) to diversify revenue as mining margins come under pressure.

The appeal is straightforward: AI hosting contracts can provide stable, multi-year revenue streams and higher margins than the more volatile economics of bitcoin mining, which have been squeezed by rising network competition and the 2024 halving.

Michael Saylor and his embattled Strategy (MSTR) sold more common stock last week, using the proceeds to add a relatively small amount of bitcoin and $300 million in cash to its balance sheet.

The company sold about 2.7 million shares of MSTR, according to a Monday morning filing, raising $335.5 million. About $35 million of that was used to acquire 520 bitcoin at an average price of $67,068 each. The other $300 million was added to cash already on the balance sheet, bringing reserves to $1.4 billion.

The latest acquisition brings Strategy’s total bitcoin holdings to 847,363 BTC, acquired at a total cost of roughly $64.01 billion, or an average purchase price of $75.651 per coin.

Euro-denominated trading accounts for only a small share of Binance’s activity, as the exchange faces uncertainty over its European licensing prospects under the Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA).

Euro (EUR) trading accounts for around 1% of Binance’s spot volume, CryptoQuant analyst Maartunn told Cointelegraph.

“Binance’s inflows remain globally distributed, which may limit the impact of potential MiCA-related setbacks,” Maartunn said, pointing to the exchange’s diversified user base across regions.

Source: CryptoQuant

The data comes as Greek regulators are reportedly preparing to reject Binance’s licensing application ahead of MiCA’s transitional deadline on July 1, a move that could complicate the exchange’s ability to serve EU residents.

Binance ranks among Europe’s biggest crypto exchanges

Even though EUR trading represents only about 1% of Binance’s global spot volume, the exchange still processes hundreds of millions of dollars in euro-denominated trades.

According to CryptoQuant data, Binance’s daily EUR-pair volumes have ranged from roughly $100 million to $250 million in 2026, with occasional spikes above $600 million.

Source: CryptoQuant

According to a December 2024 report by Kaiko, Binance, alongside Bitvavo, Kraken and Coinbase, accounted for more than 85% of all euro-denominated crypto trading volume.

Related: WhiteBIT secures MiCA license in Austria ahead of July 1 EU deadline

Unlike Binance, Bitvavo, Kraken and Coinbase are among the major exchanges that have already secured MiCA authorization, allowing them to offer services across the EU under the framework’s passporting regime.

83% of CASPs have yet to receive a MiCA license

Binance’s licensing uncertainty comes as many crypto asset service providers (CASPs) are still adapting to MiCA’s requirements.

According to estimates based on European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) data cited by market analyst Merlijn Geurds, only around 210 of more than 1,200 firms operating under pre-MiCA registration regimes have obtained full authorization under the new framework.

Source: Merlijn Geurds

Geurds told Cointelegraph the gap reflects the cost and complexity of compliance, which requires governance standards, compliance controls and operational safeguards that many smaller firms lack.

“The result is consolidation by design,” Geurds said, adding: “A smaller group of well-capitalized, licensed players gets a passport to all 27 states, while a long tail faces forced migrations or cutoffs.”

Cointelegraph contacted Binance for comment on the size of its European business and the potential impact of MiCA-related restrictions but had not received a response by publication.

Magazine: SBF will never get a pardon, Trump peace deal boosts Bitcoin: Hodlers Digest June 14-21

Ripple’s CEO said the company might do “something special” for XRP holders if it ever goes public. The XRP community heard a promise. What he actually said was a maybe, attached to an IPO he calls a non-priority. Here is the real picture, separated from the hype.

One sentence from Ripple’s chief executive set the XRP community alight. Asked on a podcast whether XRP holders might benefit if Ripple ever went public, Brad Garlinghouse said there could be a scenario where the company does “something special” for people who hold XRP, then immediately added that it was not something for the immediate term.

Within hours, the remark had been clipped, shared, and amplified into something close to a promise, with community members urging others to “hold accordingly.” But the gap between what Garlinghouse actually said and what the community heard is wide, and it matters.

XRP traders are watching a cluster of signals that, if they play out, could set up a short-term relief rally and potentially a larger recovery attempt later in the year. Multiple technical indicators point to a market that may be nearing an oversold phase, with key levels around $1.39–$1.40 attracting attention.

As of Monday, XRP was trading near $1.13, while its longer-term trend gauges and momentum readings suggested the downside move may be losing steam—at least in the near term. At the same time, derivatives positioning data points to a potential “price magnet” effect that could pull the market toward higher liquidation zones.

Key takeaways

• XRP’s 20-week EMA is close to crossing below its 200-week EMA, a weekly “death cross” scenario that has historically been followed by mean-reversion rebounds.
• A move back toward the $1.39–$1.40 zone would align with prior post-cross behavior and could represent roughly the mid-20% upside range from around $1.13.
• CoinGlass liquidation heatmap data for XRP/USDT shows heavier short liquidation liquidity above spot, concentrated around approximately $1.37–$1.40.
• An analyst framework from Cryptollica argues XRP could be approaching conditions similar to previous washed-out phases, with long-term targets framed near $8 if a broader bottom develops.

The “mean-reversion” setup targeting $1.39–$1.40

One of the main triggers behind the bullish short-term outlook is XRP’s positioning relative to two long-horizon moving averages. According to TradingView data referenced in the report, XRP’s 20-week exponential moving average (20-week EMA) was near $1.40 and appeared on the verge of dropping below the 200-week EMA (around $1.39).

If XRP prints a confirmed weekly close below the 200-week EMA, that would mark a relatively uncommon “death cross” between the two trend indicators—an event that traders often associate with sustained weakness. However, the article argues that XRP’s past instances of 20-week/200-week EMA crosses have not led only to further declines; instead, they were followed by relief rebounds back toward the 200-week EMA.

Historically, the cited examples include a roughly 20% recovery in 2019 and a much larger 82.7% rebound in 2022 after similar cross events. Under that same mean-reversion logic, the $1.39–$1.40 band becomes the focal point, implying potential upside on the order of about 23%–25% from XRP’s referenced price near $1.13—timed, in the report’s estimate, toward July.

Momentum data adds another layer. XRP’s weekly relative strength index (RSI) was hovering just above the oversold threshold of 30 on Monday. RSI readings near 30 often indicate that selling pressure may be nearing exhaustion, which can increase the odds of a short-term rebound even if the larger trend remains under pressure.

Derivatives positioning: liquidation liquidity above spot

Beyond charts and momentum, the report also points to derivatives microstructure using CoinGlass data. Specifically, it references a Binance XRP/USDT liquidation heatmap that shows the distribution of liquidation levels above and below the current price.

In that view, there is a heavier concentration of short liquidation liquidity above spot than long liquidation liquidity below it. The largest upside cluster is reported at roughly $236.5 million located in the $1.37–$1.40 zone, according to the CoinGlass liquidation heatmap for XRP/USDT.

Liquidation heatmaps are commonly interpreted as maps of where leveraged positions may be forced to close. If XRP begins rebounding from around $1.13, shorts positioned above the market may face buyback pressure, which can create an accelerant toward nearby liquidation clusters—potentially reinforcing a push toward $1.39–$1.40.

It’s important to note the conditional nature of this mechanism: liquidation “magnets” typically work best when price action already turns upward, because liquidation levels alone do not guarantee direction. Still, the asymmetry highlighted by the heatmap suggests the market’s levered risk may be skewed toward higher prices if a bounce begins.

Longer-term framing: a potential broader bottom toward $8

The story does not stop at near-term levels. A separate long-term chart shared by analyst Cryptollica is used to argue that XRP may be entering another stage consistent with major market washouts.

Cryptollica’s framework, shared in a Sunday post on X (linked in the source), highlights XRP’s 10-day RSI hovering near the low-30s—near the range that has historically appeared around major accumulation phases. The post also makes a broader historical claim that, over “13 years,” XRP has only been this “washed out” three times.

“The first 2 times, the crowd laughed, ignored it, and only understood the setup after price had already left,” Cryptollica said in the referenced post.

In the same chart-based thesis, Cryptollica also points to XRP trading above the lower boundary of a large ascending channel. This channel is described as a support structure that has connected multiple macro lows since 2017. The lower boundary is shown near $0.75, implying the asset may still need another downside sweep before a larger recovery phase begins.

The report frames that potential sequence as: a retest of the channel support area near $0.75 first, followed by a transition into a broader bull-market phase. In that case, the channel’s upper boundary is cited as placing a long-term target near $8.

Because this portion of the narrative relies on technical pattern interpretation rather than a measurable, real-time indicator with a universally accepted trigger, the $8 target should be treated as conditional. What matters for now is the setup being claimed: oversold momentum near key thresholds and the possibility that XRP could remain supported by the channel structure—even if additional downside occurs before any large reversal.

What to watch next for XRP

Traders monitoring this thesis should focus on whether XRP can maintain an oversold bounce without losing the $1.13 area too aggressively, and whether a weekly close develops that confirms the 20-week/200-week death cross scenario. On the derivatives side, pay attention to whether price moves toward the $1.37–$1.40 liquidation cluster instead of stalling below it; and for longer-horizon investors, keep an eye on whether XRP holds above the ascending channel’s lower boundary near $0.75, since that level is positioned as the next checkpoint before any larger recovery attempt.