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Arthur Hayes Explains How US-Iran Conflict Could Boost Bitcoin

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Arthur Hayes Explains How US-Iran Conflict Could Boost Bitcoin


Arthur Hayes argues that Middle East wars often trigger Federal Reserve rate cuts, boosting Bitcoin over time.

In a March 1 essay, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes argued that the U.S. military escalation in Iran fits a four-decade pattern of American intervention in the Middle East that ultimately leads to Federal Reserve easing.

According to Hayes, the longer the U.S. engages in this conflict, the higher the likelihood the Fed cuts rates or prints money to finance the war effort, a move he believes will drive the price of Bitcoin (BTC) higher.

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Hayes Draws a Line From Gulf Wars to Fed Rate Cuts

In his analysis, Hayes pointed to the 1990 Gulf War, where FOMC minutes from August of that year noted that “events in the Middle East had greatly complicated the formulation of an effective monetary policy,” leading to rate cuts later that year.

He also cited the Federal Reserve’s emergency meeting after the September 11, 2001, attacks, where then-Chair Alan Greenspan cut rates by 50 basis points, explicitly pointing to a “heightened degree of fear and uncertainty” impacting asset prices.

The crypto market has already reacted to the unfolding geopolitical news, showcasing its role as the only financial market open during the weekend turmoil. Bitcoin, the most prominent asset in the sector, initially plummeted from $66,000 to around $63,600 within minutes of the first reports of strikes on February 28.

However, the asset just as quickly reversed course, jumping to $67,000 later that evening following reports of the death of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. At the time of writing, BTC was trading at around $66,800, slipping by less than 1% on the day and up 2.8% over the past week, although it remains down more than 20% across the last month.

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Hayes Advises Waiting for the Fed Before Buying

While the immediate market reaction has been chaotic, Hayes is urging investors to look past the initial volatility and focus on the anticipated policy response. He noted that every U.S. president since 1985 has engaged militarily in the Middle East, and the financial fallout has consistently been managed with cheaper money.

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For the former BitMEX CEO, the “simple heuristic” for Bitcoin’s rise or fall is that the cost of “nation-building” invariably leads to monetary easing.

“The longer Trump engages in the extremely costly activity of Iranian nation-building, the higher the likelihood the Fed lowers the price and increases the quantity of money to support Pax Americana’s latest bout of Middle Eastern adventurism,” he wrote.

Considering that Bitcoin has just suffered through its fifth consecutive month of losses, a streak not seen since 2018, with the asset shedding nearly 15% in February, Hayes has provided a specific trading tactic for the current environment. Given the uncertainty over how long the U.S. will remain engaged and how much financial market pain it can tolerate, he advises a patient approach.

“The prudent action is to wait and see,” said the crypto trader.

He also suggests that the optimal time to “back up the truck and buy Bitcoin and high-quality shitcoins” is not during the initial conflict but immediately after the Fed actually cuts rates or resumes money printing to support the government’s objectives in Iran.

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South Korea probes $4.8 million crypto theft after tax seizure photo blunder

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South Korea probes $4.8 million crypto theft after tax seizure photo blunder

South Korean tax authorities lost $4.8 million of seized crypto after displaying the relevant wallets’ seed phrases in a photograph covering the Feb. 26 event.

The crypto was taken immediately after the National Tax Service (NTS) shared a photo that included hardware wallets and their secret phrases. The service apologized for the incident, Asia Business Daily reported on Sunday.

“In an effort to provide more vivid information, we did not realize that sensitive information was included and carelessly provided the original photo,” the tax office said. “This is entirely the fault of the National Tax Service (NTS), with no excuse.”

This is at least the second time something like this has occurred in the country. South Korean authorities faced scrutiny over a separate failure in which Seoul’s Gangnam police allegedly lost 22 BTC (roughly $1.5 million) in a 2021 hacking case after leaving the funds and seed phrase with a third-party custodian. The authors of that theft were recently detained.

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The new case involves a taxpayer who owed the NTS capital gains tax, which led to the individual’s home being raided. The authorities took control of at least four hardware wallets and cash. They then photographed the seized items, which included at least two seed phrases, and shared the unblurred photo publicly..

The NTS requested police intervention to recover the stolen cryptocurrency. The tax authority also revealed plans to conduct an external review of its overall security system and to overhaul the entire manual for the process from the seizure to the sale of virtual assets.

Koo Yun-cheol, South Korea’s deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Finance and Economy, confirmed the leak in an X post on Sunday.

Koo said several government agencies, including the Financial Services Commission and the Financial Supervisory Service would investigate the leak. He also said they would scrutinize how government agencies and public institutions seize and manage digital assets to prevent recurrence.

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Tokenized gold PAXG, XAUT jump as missiles fly, BTC stalls near $66.2k

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Bitcoin-gold ratio flashes historic warning as altcoins sink to record lows

Tokenized gold PAXG and XAUT climb about 1–2% toward $5.4k as Middle East conflict sends BTC, ETH and SOL lower in 24h risk‑off trade.

Summary

Tokenized gold is suddenly back in fashion as geopolitical risk flares, with on‑chain proxies for bullion emerging as the market’s preferred panic hedge.

Tokenized gold jumps on Middle East shock

In a post on X, CoinGecko noted that “tokenized commodities such as $PAXG and $XAUT are among the most viewed cryptocurrencies today amid the ongoing US–Israeli conflict with Iran.” The spike in attention tracks a sharp move higher in gold‑backed coins. As of Monday, PAX Gold (PAXG) changes hands near $5,409, after trading between roughly $5,326 and $5,439 over the past 24 hours, with a market cap around $2.6B. Tether Gold (XAUT) trades close to $5,318, up about 0.7% over the day, with 24‑hour volumes near $932M and a market cap of roughly $3.0B. Earlier coverage described PAXG “up 6.13% day on day at $5,513.28,” while XAUT was “up 4.62% to $5,403.82, with risk assets weakening and risk appetite strengthening for coins linked to safe‑haven assets.” A Reuters report similarly highlighted that “PAX Gold (PAXG) is currently leading the charge at $5,344/oz (+2.2% since Friday), while Tether Gold (XAUt) has climbed to $5,292/oz (+1.2%).”

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On crypto X, the mood is blunt. “If there are crisis gold is mostly the favorite,” wrote MEXC’s Phil Herrmann. Another user observed that there is a “gold panic bid while crypto’s supposed inflation hedge sits frozen at 66k… Shows you who actually trusts btc when missiles fly vs who just talks about it on podcasts.” “Real gold wins when bombs fly,” added one Web3 commentator, while another summed up the moment as “safe havens szn. Gold always wins, WAGMI.”

Bitcoin, Ethereum and Solana lag

While tokenized gold rallies, major cryptocurrencies are softer to sideways. Bitcoin is trading around $66,200, down roughly 3% over the last 24 hours, with an intraday range near $64,350–$68,235. Ethereum hovers around $1,970, having slipped about 2.5% on the day, after swinging between roughly $1,940 and $1,980. Solana trades close to $83, down about 4% in 24 hours, with a session range between roughly $81.9 and $86.7 and a market cap near $47B.

Broader crypto market

This parabolic move comes as digital assets continue to trade as the purest expression of macro risk appetite. Bitcoin (BTC) is hovering around $66,200, with a 24‑hour range near $64,350–$68,235 and deep, exchange‑wide volumes. Ethereum (ETH) changes hands close to $1,970, on more than $21B in 24‑hour turnover and price action rotating inside the $1,940–$1,980 band. Solana (SOL) trades around $83, off roughly 4% on the day, with almost $4.4B in volume.

The renewed bid for tokenized bullion underlines a simple allocation truth: when missiles fly, markets still grab for gold—only this time, they are doing it on‑chain. For readers tracking these flows, live pricing is available via crypto.news pages for PAX Gold (PAXG) and Tether Gold (XAUT).

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Mantle hits $1B market size milestone on Aave: will MNT price explode next?

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An investor looking at Mantle token
An investor looking at Mantle token
  • Mantle has crossed the $1 billion total market size threshold on Aave.
  • If inflows persist, bulls could target resistance in the $0.85-$0.92 range.
  • MNT can rally toward the bulls’ key target of $1.

Mantle, a layer-2 blockchain network connecting traditional finance and on-chain liquidity, has surpassed $1 billion in total lending and borrowing volume on the Aave protocol.

The milestone coincides with a sharp rise in Mantle’s total value locked (TVL) in decentralized finance, despite the crypto market’s bearish outlook.

Can the lending and TVL milestones bolster the price of the native token MNT?

Mantle hits $1B lending milestone on Aave

The Mantle-Aave lending market rocketed past the $1 billion mark following a blockbuster launch that injected $800 million in just one day last week.

According to details, the staggering jump in market size, achieved in under three weeks, saw a new uptick as a dynamic weekend brought more than $200 million in organic capital inflows.

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Beyond these gains, the Aave integration has ignited broader ecosystem momentum.

Notably, Mantle’s DeFi TVL has jumped from around $455 million to over $755 million, a 66% increase in just one week.

Emily Bao, a key advisor for Mantle, emphasized the achievement:

“Crossing $1 billion in total market size in under three weeks is a clear signal and not just of what Mantle and Aave have built together, but of where institutional and retail DeFi is heading. Mantle was built to be the distribution layer where real-world finance flows, and these milestones are proof that the ecosystem is delivering on that vision. The MoMNTum is real, and we’ve barely even started.”

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What could these network milestones mean for MNT? Market experts say the integration of Mantle on Aave is critical to users seeking opportunities and incentives across DeFi.

As such, the surge highlights Mantle’s growing appeal as a scalable and efficient platform for DeFi activities.

MNT price could eye gains as the ecosystem expands and attracts inflows.

Mantle price forecast: can bulls target $1?

MNT’s price has hovered around $0.65-$0.70 over the past month, with current prices well below the all-time high of $2.85 in October 2025.

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While buyers have shown resilience, early signs of recovery have faded amid a broader market downturn.

However, the $1 billion milestone could act as a powerful catalyst for MNT, potentially drawing more liquidity and boosting token utility.

The TVL surge also highlights increased value bet on Mantle growth.

Mantle Price Chart
Mantle price chart by TradingView

If bulls hold current levels, a fresh bounce could bring the supply zone around $0.85 and $0.92 into play.

The $1 level is a key bullish target.

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However, technical indicators suggest sellers may continue to exert downside pressure in the coming days and weeks.

Mantle token trading below key moving averages and being neutral-to-sell leaning oscillators support this outlook.

RSI is at 42, and suggests seller conviction, while the price also hovers below the parabolic SAR.

If the downside proves to be the path of least resistance, the next support levels could be $0.57 and Feb. 6 lows at $0.52.

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Is the Bottom In for XRP? The Critical Levels You Need to Watch

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Is the Bottom In for XRP? The Critical Levels You Need to Watch

XRP is still trading in a broader downtrend, and the rebound attempts keep getting capped at lower highs. The asset is now trying to establish a bottom near the lower part of the range, so the next move likely comes down to whether buyers can defend the recent floor and reclaim the first resistance band.

Ripple Price Analysis: The USDT Pair

On the daily XRPUSDT chart, the trend remains bearish inside a descending channel, with the price holding below the 100-day moving average and the 200-day moving average. The most important overhead supply is the $1.80 zone, which has acted as a pivot area and now lines up with dynamic resistance from the moving averages and the channel structure.

Above that, the next heavier resistance level sits around $2.40 to $2.50, where sellers previously stepped in and where a larger trend shift would need to prove itself.

Support is concentrated around $1.20, which is the area that has been repeatedly defended after the recent flush. As long as XRP stays above this band, the market can keep forming a base and attempt a recovery leg. A clean daily breakdown below $1.20, however, would weaken the structure and increase the odds of a deeper drop toward the next support region near $1.00 or even lower.

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The BTC Pair

On the daily XRPBTC chart, XRP is trading around 2,050 sats and still sits below key resistance levels and the key 100-day and 200-day moving averages, after failing to hold the prior recovery swings. The first resistance to watch is the 100-day moving average around 2,200, followed by the 200-day moving average around 2,400 sats.

These elements have repeatedly rejected the price and also overlap with the moving averages, acting as pressure from above. If XRP can reclaim that zone and hold it, the next upside target becomes the 2,500 to sats supply area.

The main support is also located near the 2,000 sats region, which has been tested multiple times and is clearly a line bulls are trying to defend. If the 2,000-sat level fails on a clean break and close, the next major demand pocket sits much lower around 1,400 to 1,500 sats. That is the type of move that usually happens when Bitcoin strength outpaces altcoins, so XRPBTC is still the key risk gauge for bulls here.

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CVX Shares Surge in Early Trading as Crude Oil Soars on Middle East Turmoil

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CVX Stock Card

Quick Summary

  • CVX shares gained approximately 4% before the market opening bell on rising crude prices

  • Brent crude surged up to 13% following strikes on Middle East energy infrastructure

  • The company’s Leviathan natural gas facility was shut down after regional attacks

  • Maritime traffic slowdowns near the Strait of Hormuz sparked supply worries

  • Market participants are monitoring petroleum stockpiles and regional tensions


Chevron (CVX) shares experienced upward momentum during Monday’s premarket session as crude oil prices rallied sharply following fresh military strikes across the Middle East.


CVX Stock Card
Chevron Corporation, CVX

The stock advanced around 4% in early morning trading as oil markets responded to renewed supply uncertainty and reduced maritime activity near the strategic Strait of Hormuz.
The rally came as both Brent crude and West Texas Intermediate futures posted significant gains.

Brent reached a peak increase of 13% during the opening moments before moderating somewhat as the session progressed.
Energy sector equities rallied swiftly as market participants factored in regional supply threats.

Chevron concluded Friday’s trading session at $186.76, posting a 1.41% increase.
Early Monday activity pushed the stock toward $194 as petroleum prices continued climbing.

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Exxon Mobil alongside other prominent energy firms also experienced premarket gains.
The energy sector outperformed even as broader indices faced headwinds.

Supply Disruption Fears Fuel Oil Rally

Crude prices rocketed higher after recent strikes hit critical energy infrastructure and maritime passages throughout the Middle East.
Trading resumed with markets pricing in elevated risk premiums for potential supply interruptions.

Saudi Aramco suspended operations at its Ras Tanura refinery following a drone strike.
The installation has daily processing capacity of approximately 550,000 barrels, industry sources indicate.

Market observers characterized the attack as a significant escalation targeting crucial Gulf energy assets.
Maritime operations near the Strait of Hormuz experienced slowdowns in the wake of the strikes.

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Approximately 20% of worldwide petroleum supply passes through the Strait of Hormuz.
Any impediment to transit through this waterway can rapidly influence global energy pricing.

Petroleum markets are currently responding to Gulf region events and shipping patterns.
Industry experts noted that price trajectories will depend significantly on disruption duration.

OPEC+ recently authorized a 206,000 barrel per day production boost beginning in April.
Traders emphasized that this supply addition remains modest when weighed against present geopolitical uncertainties.

Chevron’s Regional Exposure and Market Outlook

Chevron maintains significant exposure to regional events through its Middle East operations.
Israel’s Energy Ministry mandated temporary shutdowns of domestic natural gas production following the strikes.

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Chevron’s operated Leviathan offshore gas field went offline in response to the attacks.
Industry sources attributed the closure to elevated security concerns.

The company’s financial performance correlates strongly with oil and gas pricing trends.
Elevated energy prices typically bolster upstream revenue for integrated producers.

Energy equities rallied broadly across the sector as petroleum prices advanced.
Occidental Petroleum and ConocoPhillips similarly registered substantial premarket increases.

Market participants are tracking whether Hormuz shipping volumes normalize in coming days.
Attention is also focused on potential resumption timelines for Israeli natural gas operations.

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Domestic traders await Wednesday’s weekly petroleum inventory figures from regulators.
The Energy Information Administration is scheduled to publish the data at 10:30 a.m. Eastern Time.

CVX shares maintained premarket gains as oil markets continued processing supply concerns and operational interruptions stemming from Middle East developments.

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Crypto ETPs Post $1B Inflows as Bitcoin Leads Gains

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Crypto ETPs Post $1B Inflows as Bitcoin Leads Gains

Crypto investment products recorded their first weekly inflows since January last week, snapping a five-week outflow streak of around $4 billion.

Crypto exchange-traded products (ETPs) attracted $1 billion in inflows last week, led by $882 million into Bitcoin (BTC) funds, according to a Monday report from CoinShares.

“From a macro standpoint, it is difficult to attribute the shift in sentiment to a single catalyst,” said James Butterfill, CoinShares’ head of research.

He said the reversal likely reflected prior price weakness, a break below key technical levels and renewed accumulation by large Bitcoin holders.

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“At a more anecdotal level, recent client discussions have been almost entirely focused on identifying entry points rather than reducing exposure to the asset class,” he added.

Ether and Solana add $171 million in weekly crypto inflows

Ether (ETH) funds drew about $117 million, CoinShares said, marking their strongest week since January, while Solana (SOL) drew in about $54 million.

Chainlink (LINK) and XRP (XRP) followed with $3.4 million and $2 million in inflows, respectively.

Weekly crypto ETP flows by asset as of Friday (in millions of US dollars). Source: CoinShares

Despite the renewed demand, Bitcoin and Ether ETPs remain in negative territory for the year, with net outflows of $408 million and $430 million, respectively.

Related: Bitcoin manipulation claims face pushback as ETFs snap 5-week outflow run: Finance Redefined

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In contrast, Solana and XRP products have posted year-to-date inflows of $156 million and $153 million.

US spot Bitcoin ETFs lead with $787 million in inflows

Regionally, ETP flows were broadly aligned, with the United States accounting for the bulk of inflows at $957 million. Canada, Germany and Switzerland recorded inflows of $34 million, $32.7 million and $28 million, respectively.

Most of the gains came from US spot Bitcoin ETFs, which drew $787.3 million last week, snapping a five-week outflow streak that had totaled more than $3.8 billion, according to SoSoValue.

Weekly flows in US spot Bitcoin ETFs since Jan. 2, 2026. Source: SoSoValue

Despite the renewed inflows, total assets under management in crypto ETPs declined to $127.7 billion from $130.4 billion the previous week.

Net assets in Bitcoin ETFs also fell, slipping to $83.4 billion from $85.3 billion a week earlier.

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