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Attention bitcoin traders. These indicators matter more than what Trump says about Iran

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Attention bitcoin traders. These indicators matter more than what Trump says about Iran

The past four weeks have been brutal for bitcoin traders as prices keep chasing comments by President Donald Trump, who can’t make up his mind about Iran.

One day, he talks peace and BTC and risk assets go up while oil drops, the next day he talks hawkish again, sending BTC down and oil up. Meanwhile, Iran declares the Strait of Hormuz is “closed forever,” and analysts throw out wildly bullish and bearish oil targets. It’s nearly impossible to navigate this choppy environment.

Traders may be better off focusing on the following real indicators that actually matter. These, unfortunately, do not paint a positive picture for risk assets, including bitcoin.

The mid-April SPR cliff

The fate of the global economy and risk assets could hinge on the next couple of weeks as a managed oil disruption threatens to become an unmanaged one.

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After the Iran war began on Feb. 28, tanker traffic through the pivotal Strait of Hormuz, which handles roughly 20% of the world’s seaborne oil trade, all but collapsed. In response, the International Energy Agency’s 32 member nations agreed to the largest coordinated strategic stock release in its 50‑year history – about 400 million barrels, later raised to 426 million as more countries pitched in.

Those emergency barrels have been offsetting a supply shortfall of roughly 4.5 to 5 million barrels per day, the gap created by the near‑shutdown of Hormuz flows.

But now those reserves are expected to hit the wall in the next couple of weeks, in which case, that manageable deficit could double to roughly 10 to 11 million barrels per day – the projected deficit due to reserve depletion and disruption of normal flows.

The House of Saud described it as “a shock of unprecedented scale with no obvious buffer left to absorb it.”

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So it doesn’t matter whether Trump continues the war against Iran or stops. If oil supplies aren’t materially restored within the next two weeks, we could see massive risk aversion across both crypto and traditional financial markets.

Ship insurance premiums through Hormuz

A ship insurance premium is the payment a shipowner makes to an insurance company to protect against financial losses that could happen while operating the ship.

Insurance costs for navigating the Strait of Hormuz have increased significantly, with reports indicating rates jumping from less than 1% of ship’s value before the war to as high as 7.5% per trip. This means that a $100 million ship now has to pay around $2- $3 million in insurance, versus $250,000 before the conflict.

When premiums drop below 2%, that’s the clearest sign the route is genuinely safer, and it’s time to take risk in markets again. No press conference, briefing, or Truth Social post from Trump can replicate the certainty embedded in those prices.

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Tanker traffic

Trump has at times suggested that passage through the Strait of Hormuz can be secured, but so far, there is no clear evidence that tanker traffic has returned to anything like normal volumes.

In fact, only 21 tankers have transited Hormuz since the war began, compared with more than 100 ships daily before the conflict, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence.

A sustainable rally in risk assets requires this number to pick up materially; until then, Trump’s attempts to calm markets are likely to be short-lived.

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Ripple Treasury puts XRP and RLUSD inside corporate finance for the first time

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Ripple Treasury puts XRP and RLUSD inside corporate finance for the first time

Ripple on Thursday introduced native digital asset capabilities inside its enterprise treasury management system, letting corporate finance teams hold, view and manage XRP and RLUSD alongside traditional fiat balances for the first time within a single platform.

The two features, called Digital Asset Accounts and Unified Treasury, are built on GTreasury, which Ripple acquired in 2025. That system processed $13 trillion in payments volume last year for clients ranging from small businesses to Fortune 500 companies. The digital asset layer adds to that existing infrastructure rather than replacing it.

Digital Asset Accounts let treasury teams create a Ripple-native digital asset account inside the platform. Balances in XRP, RLUSD, and other supported tokens appear alongside cash positions with real-time fiat valuations using live exchange rates.

Transactions are recorded automatically with native notional amounts, fiat equivalents, and market price at the time of each event, creating an audit trail without manual entry. The system captures balances at 15-decimal precision to match on-chain accuracy and eliminate rounding discrepancies that cause reconciliation problems.

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Unified Treasury connects digital asset holdings from multiple external custodians through the same API connectivity layer Ripple Treasury already uses for bank integrations.

“Digital assets have arrived at the CFO’s desk, and the question has shifted from whether to engage to how to do so without disrupting existing operations,” said Renaat Ver Eecke, SVP at Ripple Treasury.

The launch positions Ripple Treasury ahead of competing TMS providers, none of which currently offer native digital asset management.

Ripple said the two features are the first in a broader digital asset framework that will expand to cross-border settlement, intercompany payments, and overnight yield on idle cash through repo markets, all powered by stablecoins.

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China takes custody of alleged Huione Group-linked figure Li Xiong

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China takes custody of alleged Huione Group-linked figure Li Xiong

A key figure allegedly behind the Huione network has been extradited to China, where he will face fraud and money laundering charges.

Summary

  • Li Xiong, linked to the Huione network, has been extradited from Cambodia to China to face fraud and money laundering charges.
  • Authorities have tied Huione Group to a vast illicit marketplace that processed over $89 billion in crypto tied to scam operations across Asia.
  • Despite U.S. enforcement actions, including FinCEN restrictions, the network has continued operating through new domains and active Telegram channels.

A report from Hong Kong-based news outlet Ta Kung Wen Wei noted that Li Xiong, who was part of a group that helped scam rings in Asia launder illicit funds, was escorted back to China from Phnom Penh, Cambodia, citing a statement from China’s Ministry of Public Security on WeChat.

Xiong was a core member of the Chen Zhi criminal syndicate, according to the report, and had previously served as chairman of Huione Group, a network that supported scam centers carrying out “pig butchering” schemes and other investment frauds to extract funds from victims across the globe.

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For those unfamiliar, the Huione network has been linked to one of the largest illicit online marketplaces in operation, processing more than $89 billion in cryptoassets.

Xiong’s arrest and extradition come just months after the detention of Chen Zhi, the head of Prince Group, which operated Huione Group. The U.S. Department of Justice had earlier seized over 127,000 Bitcoin tied to Zhi’s operations.

The report added that several other members of Zhi’s criminal syndicate have also been apprehended, according to statements from Chinese public officials.

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Efforts to cut off Huione’s financial network have been underway in the U.S. over the past few years.

Last year, the U.S. Department of the Treasury’s Financial Crimes Enforcement Network labelled the group a primary money laundering concern and subsequently directed financial institutions to cut off access linked to its operations.

However, third-party reports suggest that the network has resurfaced under new domains and continues to operate across platforms such as Telegram, maintaining activity despite enforcement pressure.

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Why is the crypto market crashing today? (April 2)

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Why is the crypto market crashing today? (April 2)

The crypto market has started tanking once again, dropping 2.6% to 2.37 trillion as US President Donald Trump announced that the U.S. campaign against Iran would be entering a final phase over the coming weeks to end the conflict once and for all.

Summary

  • Crypto market fell 2.6% to $2.37 trillion as escalating U.S.–Iran tensions triggered risk-off sentiment across global markets.
  • Rising oil prices above $100 fueled inflation fears, reducing expectations of Fed rate cuts and adding pressure on risk assets.

Bitcoin (BTC), the world’s largest crypto asset, fell over 4% to $66,250 amid souring market sentiment over a potential drop to $65,000, which many consider the last line of defense for a potential recovery.

Ethereum (ETH) was down 3.4%, approaching the $2,000 support, while other major crypto assets such as XRP (XRP), BNB (BNB), Solana (SOL), and Dogecoin (DOGE) posted losses between 2% and 6%. The majority of the top 100 crypto assets also shared the downward trend in the red.

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As crypto prices fell, they triggered over $420 million in liquidations across leveraged markets as traders unwind their positions. The majority of this tally came from long liquidations, which saw $255 million wiped out, with Bitcoin and Ethereum accounting for around $64 million in long liquidations each, which accelerated the selloff.

The Crypto Fear and Greed Index, which shows market psychology, fell by 5 points to 27, showing increasing fear and anxiety in the market as investors expect more volatility.

Crypto prices began slipping downwards shortly after Trump said in an address to the nation on Wednesday that the U.S. military is going to hit Iran extremely hard over the coming 2 to 3 weeks to try to secure a decisive win in the ongoing war in the Middle East.

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Trump warned that the U.S. would target Iranian energy infrastructures if no deal is reached. He also urged Gulf countries like Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and his allies in the region to pressure Tehran to relinquish control over the Strait of Hormuz.

Despite the rhetoric, Trump mentioned that discussions are ongoing for a ceasefire between both sides. Iran, for its part, has demanded a permanent end to the war, compensation for damages during the war, and the full withdrawal of U.S. military presence from the region.

The fresh threat of escalation pushed crude oil prices back above $100, leading to a broad selloff through crypto, stocks, and traditional safe-haven assets such as gold. Gold prices fell 4% to $4,590 today, while silver fell 7.5%. Asian stocks such as Japan’s Nikkei 225 were down 2.5% as investors moved to cash.

Surging oil prices are triggering fears of runaway inflation over the coming months. As such, the market expects the Federal Reserve to continue to hold interest rates steady or even hike them as they combat the inflation spike caused by oil prices.

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Lower expectations for Fed rate cuts typically weigh heavily on risk assets like cryptocurrency.

Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.

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Former FTX Engineer Nishad Singh Fined $3.7M in CFTC Fraud Case

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Former FTX Engineer Nishad Singh Fined $3.7M in CFTC Fraud Case

Nishad Singh, the former head of engineering at FTX, will pay $3.7 million to resolve his case with the US commodities regulator over his alleged role in the collapse of the crypto exchange and the misappropriation of user funds.

As part of the supplemental consent order, Singh will be required to pay a disgorgement of $3.7 million and imposes a five-year ban on trading in markets and an eight-year registration ban, blocking him from obtaining a license to operate in the sector, the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) said in a statement on Wednesday.

“The initial consent order and supplemental consent order resolve the CFTC’s enforcement action against Singh,” it added.

FTX’s bankruptcy in November 2022 sent shock waves through the crypto industry, erasing billions in market liquidity, shattering user confidence and prompting authorities to accuse its leadership of fraud.

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David Miller, the CFTC’s director of enforcement, ruled out additional restitution or civil monetary penalties for now and said the current penalties reflect Singh’s cooperation with authorities.

“The defendant engaged in, and aided, significant violations of the Act and CFTC regulations as the former FTX head of engineering, and the consent orders reflect the severity of these violations,” Miller said.

Source: US Commodity Futures Trading Commission

“But this resolution also reflects the Commission’s commitment to rewarding and incentivizing material assistance in Division investigations,” he added.

Singh charged by multiple agencies after FTX collapse

Attorneys for Singh said he was grateful this latest matter was at an end, and were “pleased that the CFTC recognized our client’s limited role in the underlying conduct and his extensive cooperation,” according to Bloomberg.

The CFTC accused Singh of personally misappropriating millions of dollars in assets and charged him in February 2023 with two counts: fraud by misappropriation and aiding and abetting fraud committed by former FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried.

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Related: FTX Recovery Trust to distribute $2.2B to creditors in March

In April 2023, Singh entered into the consent order, was found liable for the charges and agreed to cooperate with the commission’s investigators. The regulator originally sought a range of penalties, including restitution, civil monetary penalties and permanent trading and registration bans.

In a separate case brought by the Securities and Exchange Commission in February 2023, Singh was accused of misusing customer funds and committing fraud by misappropriation, in violation of securities laws. The case was settled in December with Singh receiving an eight-year industry ban.

After FTX collapsed, US prosecutors also indicted Singh and four of his colleagues on charges including fraud and campaign finance violations. He faced decades in prison if found guilty, but after testifying against Bankman-Fried and cooperating with prosecutors, he received time served and three years of supervised release.

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Magazine: Ripple joins Singapore sandbox, Bhutan’s big Bitcoin selloff: Asia Express