Bitcoin BTC$68,661.38 slid toward $68,000 on Tuesday, with traditional markets closed in Hong Kong for a long weekend, as repeated failures near $70,000 left the bitcoin market vulnerable to a break lower.

The drop came after another failed push above $70,000, with prices slipping quickly once they approached the lower end of the $65,000 to $73,000 range that has defined trading since late March. Intraday losses accelerated near that boundary, highlighting how little support exists when momentum turns.

That calm is not being driven by strong demand. Recent Glassnode data shows softer trading volumes and subdued onchain activity even as prices recover, indicating limited participation behind the move.

Meanwhile, in a note to CoinDesk, crypto-native trading and liquidity firm Caladan pointed to negative demand trends and ongoing distribution by large holders, leaving bitcoin reliant on macro-driven flows and derivatives positioning rather than broad-based accumulation.

The result is a market that looks stable on the surface but is structurally fragile if that balance shifts.

That vulnerability is becoming more visible in derivatives markets. Options data shows traders are increasingly paying up for downside protection, with implied volatility holding above realized levels, a sign that investors are bracing for a larger move even as spot prices remain rangebound.

Analysts who spoke to CoinDesk earlier point to a negative gamma setup below roughly $68,000, where market makers may be forced to sell bitcoin as prices fall in order to hedge their exposure.

The danger: this dynamic can accelerate declines, transforming a gradual move into a sharper, self-reinforcing rout that could drag prices toward the $60,000 level if support breaks.

Prediction markets reflect a similar shift in sentiment. On Polymarket, traders are assigning a 68% probability that bitcoin will trade at or below $65,000 in April, while higher targets such as $80,000 have seen sharply declining odds.

Taken together, the signals point to a market where the calm may hold, but only until key levels give way.

NASHVILLE, Tenn. — The Securities and Exchange Commission is close to proposing a “regulation crypto” fleshing out its approach to overseeing the crypto industry and drawing lines between transactions that might be securities and where they aren’t, the agency’s head said Monday.

SEC Chair Paul Atkins said the commission’s new reg crypto is in front of the White House Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs, meaning it’s one step away from being published. This rulemaking is focused on the Securities Act of 1933 and will address fundraising and startup exemptions, among other issues, he said Monday at an event hosted by Vanderbilt University and the Blockchain Association.

He told CoinDesk after his question-and-answer session that the SEC also intends to put out its long-awaited innovation exemption soon.

“We’d love to have reactions and everything else,” he said. “It’s not a rule as such but obviously we need to know how it’s functioning and if people have problems with it or not.”

One aspect to this exemption, he said, is that it wouldn’t disadvantage incumbents and focus solely on startups.

“We want people really to experiment within [that] framework,” he said.

Midterm watch

At multiple points during his talk, Atkins pointed to Congress’s role, saying that his agency’s rulemaking process was well underway despite whatever Congress may do.

“I think we have enough of a runway now, even notwithstanding what may happen in the midterms — although I really still want a friendly Congress obviously — they can throw tacks on the road in front of our tires but they’re not going to really slow us down.”

Atkins also said the audience needed “to be engaged in this upcoming election,” pointing to Senator Bernie Moreno as an example.

“To have Congress really veer off track is not going to any of us any good, and it’s going to put a lot more questions into the future because people then just have ‘oh gosh, maybe this is again a passing phase,’” he said. “We’ve got to make sure that your friends are in Congress. I think you saw how that really paid benefits in the last election.”

Chaos Labs has parted ways with the Aave ecosystem after serving as the crypto lending protocol’s main risk service provider for three years, citing a budget dispute and disagreements over how Aave should manage risk.

“This decision was not made in haste,” Chaos Labs founder Omer Goldberg said in a post to X on Monday. “We worked in good faith with DAO contributors. Aave Labs was professional and supported increasing our budget to $5m to retain us. However, we are leaving because the engagement no longer reflects how we believe risk should be managed.”

Aave Labs CEO Stani Kulechov said that Chaos didn’t depart on bad terms, but claimed that Chaos pitched a proposal seeking to become the sole risk provider and thus force out other partners — a compromise Aave wasn’t willing to accept.

Chaos played a key role in Aave’s back-end infrastructure, from pricing loans and managing risk in the Aave V2 and V3 markets since November 2022, during which Aave’s total value locked rose fivefold to $26 billion.

Risk has been a major talking point in the Aave community after a user lost $50 million in a trade while interacting with Aave’s interface on March 12. The following week, Aave said it would introduce an “Aave Shield” protection feature to deter users from high-risk trades.

As for Chaos’ departure, Goldberg said there became an increasing misalignment over how the parties thought risk should be managed. He noted that some Aave contributors had left, raising its workload, while also arguing that Aave V4’s expanded functionality introduced additional operational and legal risks that fell on Chaos’ shoulders.

“While Aave Labs is optimistic about a swift migration to V4, history suggests these transitions take months and even years,” Goldberg said. “Until V4 fully absorbs V3’s markets and liquidity, both systems need to be operated and managed simultaneously. The workload during the transition doesn’t halve. It doubles.”

Weighing the risk of a protocol failure, Goldberg said, “There is no regulatory framework, no safe harbor, and no settled law that answers the question of what a risk manager or curator owes when a protocol fails. If things work, the work is invisible. If things break, the blame is not.”

As such, “We are walking away from a $5 million engagement,” Goldberg said.

Chaos wanted Aave to boot LlamaRisk, Chainlink: Kulechov

Aave Labs CEO Stani Kulechov told a slightly different story, stating that Chaos wanted to be the sole risk manager and use its price oracles instead of Chainlink’s.

Following that request would have forced Aave to push out its other risk protocol partner, LlamaRisk, and thus abandon its two-layer economic risk model.

Related: DeFi lender Aave launches on OKX’s Ethereum L2, X Layer

Kulechov added Aave was unwilling to integrate Chaos-built price oracles, citing Aave’s “track record” with Chainlink’s services, which its “users are currently more comfortable with at scale.”

He also said Chaos was already “exploring winding down its risk consultancy services,” and that Aave had offered to double its payment to $5 million to retain them.

Cointelegraph reached out to Chaos Labs for comment.

Kulechov noted that Chaos’ departure hasn’t disrupted the Aave protocol, its smart contracts, token listings or network integrations.

Moving forward, Aave said it “will work closely with LlamaRisk to ensure a smooth transition” and maintain its two-layer economic risk model. 

Chaos’ departure comes amid a protocol-wide feud over how much funding and revenue control Aave Labs should receive versus Aave’s decentralized autonomous organization.

Despite the internal issues, Aave crossed the $1 trillion mark in cumulative lending volume in late February, marking a first in the DeFi industry.

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