Court Orders Remedial Reflex

In Buenos Aires, a court directed regulators to impose tight controls of access. The telecom regulator ENACOM also liaised with the internet companies to shut down the site. Google and Apple were also asked to take the app out of their stores. The reason why these actions are taken is to restrict access to the users in the country.

This has caused regulators to tighten their belts due to apprehension caused by activity associated with inflation data. It was reported that the platform made predictions of Argentina’s inflation rate in February before it was officially released. Besides, authorities reported that the prediction was altered minutes before publishing. This chain of events triggered the need to further research how the platform functions.

Researchers came to the conclusion that the platform served as a web-based betting platform. Regulators also said it enabled the users to participate in wagering without licenses. Also regulators were worried about access by minors. These results resulted in even tougher steps to be taken against the platform.

Latin America’s Crackdown Continues

The move is in line with other actions taken by Colombia. Polymarket was later blocked in the country due to similar complaints raised against unlicensed gambling services. Therefore, Argentina became the second country to ban the platform in the region. Such a trend underscores the developing regional integration in the area of regulatory enforcement.

Regulatory examination does not just end at Latin America; it extends to other markets. It has been reported that websites like Kalshi have been involved in court cases in the United States due to allegations of unregulated betting services. It has also been reported that unpaid wagers have been involved in cases of dispute that are associated with geopolitical activities. Regulators and legal authorities have paid more attention to such developments.

Polymarket has also addressed criticism by eliminating some of the markets. Additionally, the site has recently shut down a market for nuclear risk forecasts after being pressured by the publicity. More so, the shutdown was done through the high geopolitical tensions. This is in response to efforts to deal with concerns as the regulatory pressure persists. Argentina has imposed a nationwide ban on Polymarket following the discovery of unlicensed betting operations and a ban on platforms. The relocation is in line with the larger international desire to control prediction market sites and restrict illegal gambling solutions.

Two Democratic lawmakers in the US Congress have introduced legislation in response to “government corruption” over bets on prediction markets platforms.

In a Tuesday announcement, Texas Representative Greg Casar and Connecticut Senator Chris Murphy said they had introduced the Banning Event Trading on Sensitive Operations and ​Federal Functions (BETS OFF) Act after several Polymarket accounts made “highly unusual bets” that a war between the US and Israel against Iran would begin.

Murphy said on March 4 that it was likely that people with “inside information” of US President Donald Trump’s plan to bomb Iran had made the bets.

“We shouldn’t live in a country where someone sitting in the situation room making decisions about whether to invade or to bomb, decisions about war and peace, life and death, that those decisions could be driven by the fact that they have hundreds of thousands of dollars riding on the decision,” said Casar.

The bill is the latest twist in US lawmakers’ efforts to crack down on prediction market platforms and accounts allegedly using insider information to profit from government actions. Last week, California Senator Adam Schiff introduced the DEATH BETS Act to prevent prediction markets platforms from listing events contracts related to war, terrorism, assassination and individual deaths.

Related: Arizona AG files charges against Kalshi over ‘illegal gambling‘

Platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi offer bets on a variety of outcomes, including sporting events and US politics. However, users betting on the specifics of the US-Israel conflict with Iran have ignited controversy in many areas of government. On Monday, a military correspondent with the Times of Israel said that he had received death threats over his report of the date when an Iranian missile had struck Israel, all “in order to resolve a prediction on Polymarket.”

War-related bets still live on Polymarket

As of Tuesday, Polymarket still offered users the opportunity to place bets on the outcomes of several potential decisions in the US-Israel conflict against Iran, including on whether the US would send ground forces into the country, when a ceasefire might happen, and changes to Iranian leadership.

“The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society,” said Polymarket in a note on Middle East markets. “That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and [X, formerly Twitter] could not.”

Kalshi, in contrast, offered event contracts related to the Iranian conflict but not on specific military actions, such as if the country might reach a nuclear deal with the US and whether Trump or other elected officials might visit Iran.

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