Bitcoin price-metric basket sees longest capitulation since FTX blow-up: Glassnode

Bitcoin (BTC) is seeing its longest capitulation since the end of the 2022 bear market, onchain analytics platform Glassnode reported on Monday.

Key points:

• 45 Bitcoin price metrics tracked by Glassnode are in their longest “capitulation” phase since the collapse of FTX in late 2022.
• Aggregate readings still have to turn colder to match areas that marked previous bear-market bottoms, says creator Rafael Schultze-Kraft.

45 Bitcoin price metrics spend 2026 in “capitulation” zone

Glassnode’s Bitcoin Cycle Position Heatmap, a composite BTC price metric overview tool, has signaled capitulation throughout 2026. 

The tool, created by the platform’s co-founder, Rafael Schultze-Kraft, combines data from 45 indicators to present an overall picture of market health as Bitcoin price cycles repeat. A majority blue heatmap indicates a period of “capitulation” within the cycle, with red pointing to the euphoria characteristic of momentum toward cycle peaks.

After a euphoric phase in November 2021, the heatmap flipped to blue for the majority of 2022. In November that year, cryptocurrency exchange FTX collapsed, an event that coincided with Bitcoin’s last bear-market bottom of $15,600.

“Today it sits in its coldest stretch since FTX: late in the bear, but not yet the unanimous deep blue that previously marked a floor,” Schultze-Kraft commented on the Heatmap’s latest readings.

Bitcoin Cycle Position Heatmap. Source: Rafael Schultze-Kraft on X.com

In addition to basic price gauges such as market cap, the heatmap puts a considerable focus on the profitability of the Bitcoin investor base, dividing it into short-term (STH) and long-term (LTH) holders.

Certain metrics, Schultze-Kraft notes, change their behavior over time, requiring a more nuanced reading when used for cycle signals. Among these is dormancy — the number of days a unit of BTC has spent idle when used in an onchain transaction. Here, the ageing investor base means that dormancy increases over time, differing between cycles.

Coldcard hack spikes sub-1 BTC transactions

In its latest Market Pulse report released on Monday, Glassnode was complimentary regarding the resilience of market participants.

Related: US yen intervention puts Bitcoin, risk assets on notice for liquidity flux

“On-chain activity strengthened materially. Daily active addresses and entity-adjusted transfer volumes moved above their upper statistical bands, indicating a notable increase in network engagement and economic throughput,” it reported.

Stabilization of capital outflows remained despite a knee-jerk reaction by certain investors in the wake of the low-entropy bug exploit in Coldcard hardware wallets.

Data from analytics platform CryptoQuant likened the uptick in onchain transactions of 1 BTC or less to the aftermath of the FTX implosion. On July 31, the daily tally reached 39,600 BTC, compared with 39,900 on Nov. 16, 2022.

A week on, nearly 90% of the stolen coins remain unmoved onchain, confirmed attacker addresses have been shared with U.S. federal law enforcement and Toronto-based Coinkite has patched every affected device line. A volunteer team funded by OpenSats scanned more than 150 open-source repositories and found no evidence the problem extended beyond Coldcard.

The exploit led some in the industry to question the value of self-custody, suggesting investors should consider buying bitcoin through, for example, exchange-traded funds rather than holding it themselves.

Klippsten, however, said clients are not retreating from self-custody. Instead, they’re examining ways of making their bitcoin harder to access.

“People are moving into Swan Vault right now,” he said, referring to the firm’s collaborative multisig product, where no single device can put a user’s funds at risk. “Instead of abandoning self-custody, many are upgrading it.”

His verdict on the week is measured optimism.

“It is awful that people lost coins, and they did everything right according to what a lot of well-known people in the industry told them. But Bitcoin is antifragile and the tools are getting stronger by the hour. This might end up being the best thing that ever happened to self-custody.”

Former LAPD reserve officer Eric Halem has been sentenced to life in prison plus 15 years for kidnapping and robbing a teenager of a hard drive containing about $350,000 worth of Bitcoin during a 2024 home invasion in Los Angeles.

According to the Los Angeles Times, Los Angeles County Superior Court Judge Mildred Escobedo imposed the sentence on Tuesday after rejecting Halem’s request for a new trial in the December 2024 robbery targeting a 17-year-old in Koreatown.

Bitcoin robbery case has resulted in life sentence

Court records cited by the publication show Halem received concurrent life sentences for kidnapping and robbery, along with an additional 15-year prison term. During the hearing, Judge Escobedo dismissed defense arguments that Halem’s original lawyers had failed to call witnesses and examine important evidence.

The judge said the trial evidence showed Halem acted out of “sheer and utter greed,” adding there could have been no other conclusion based on the facts presented in court.

A spokesperson for the Los Angeles County District Attorney’s Office told the newspaper that Halem must complete most of the 15-year sentence before serving the concurrent life terms. The spokesperson also said he will become eligible for parole after seven years.

The sentence follows Halem’s conviction in March, when a jury found him guilty after a two-week trial.

Prosecutors said teenager was forced to surrender Bitcoin hard drive

Prosecutors told the court that Halem and three alleged co-conspirators entered a high-rise apartment in Los Angeles and threatened to kill the victim unless he handed over a hard drive containing approximately $350,000 in Bitcoin.

The teenager, identified during the proceedings only as Daniel, surrendered the device after being threatened, according to evidence presented during the trial.

Although Halem had left the Los Angeles Police Department nearly two years before the robbery, the Los Angeles Times reported that he was still serving as a reserve officer when the crime took place.

The newspaper also reported that Halem continues to face separate criminal cases involving alleged insurance fraud and another crypto-related robbery. His three co-defendants have not yet gone to trial.

Crypto-related home invasions have continued across the US

The sentencing comes as U.S. authorities continue pursuing several violent cases involving cryptocurrency holders.

Earlier this month, federal prosecutors in Connecticut announced charges against three Missouri men accused of planning a home invasion to force a victim to transfer Bitcoin. According to the U.S. Department of Justice, Sedric Louis, John Davis and Martel Williams allegedly traveled to Connecticut in August 2024, rented vehicles, obtained air rifles and walkie-talkies, and watched their intended target and his parents before abandoning the plan after becoming concerned they had been captured by security cameras.

The Justice Department said the conspiracy case forms part of a larger investigation linked to a later kidnapping in Danbury, where another group allegedly targeted the parents of a person connected to the theft of hundreds of millions of dollars in Bitcoin. The three Missouri defendants have pleaded not guilty, while prosecutors have already secured guilty pleas from Adam Iza and Saif Faiq over related Hobbs Act conspiracy charges.

Several months earlier, federal prosecutors also charged three Tennessee men over another alleged cryptocurrency robbery operation in California.

According to the Justice Department, Elijah Armstrong, Nino Chindavanh and Jayden Rucker posed as delivery workers to enter or attempt to enter homes in San Francisco, San Jose, Sunnyvale and Los Angeles. Prosecutors alleged the group restrained victims with firearms, duct tape and zip ties before demanding access to cryptocurrency accounts.

In one alleged incident, authorities said a victim was forced to log into crypto accounts while another participant transferred about $6.5 million in digital assets to a wallet controlled by the group. All three defendants have pleaded not guilty and remain entitled to the presumption of innocence unless proven guilty in court.

Investigators have tracked more attacks targeting crypto holders

The California and Connecticut prosecutions have been among several recent cases in which investigators say cryptocurrency investors were selected because of their digital asset holdings rather than traditional valuables.

Federal prosecutors have increasingly relied on Hobbs Act robbery charges in cases involving alleged kidnappings and forced cryptocurrency transfers, while state prosecutors have pursued separate robbery and kidnapping charges where the facts support them.

Outside the United States, authorities have also reported an increase in physical attacks targeting crypto holders. French prosecutors have charged dozens of suspects in separate investigations involving alleged kidnappings and attempts to force victims to surrender access to cryptocurrency wallets, while investigators have continued warning that organized groups are using violence alongside digital theft methods.

Arthur Hayes thinks everyone has the AI trade filed under the wrong category.

In a new essay, the co-founder of crypto exchange BitMEX and crypto fund Maelstrom said the ongoing infrastructure buildout is a credit story like 2008, not an earnings story like the 2000 dot-com bust.

Hyperscalers, or computing frms borrow against their massive data centers, are stuffed with chips that depreciate fast, and lenders bankroll it believing they are financing technology when the underlying asset is closer to real estate.

The break comes when announced capex stops accelerating, which he pegs for late 2027 into 2028. Credit keeps flowing well past that point, the way mortgage lending did into 2007, until the weakest AI debt cracks and drags down whoever is over-levered on it.

Hayes expects Washington and Beijing to backstop the wreckage in the name of national security, printing more than they did in 2008, and that flood of liquidity is what bottoms bitcoin and drives it toward $1 million.

The nearer-term call is that the recent AI selloff, Korea’s leveraged unwind included, is a dip inside a bull market.

Bitcoin traded near $64,200 on Wednesday, flat on the week and still stuck in the range it has held since May.

“I don’t think the 500-day rule will be as relevant in the current cycle. BTC is now primarily institutionally driven. ETF inflows have dwarfed the halving supply shock.”

Following the April 2024 halving, bitcoin miners produced about 450 BTC per day, worth about $35 million to $40 million, Fernandes said. By comparison, the daily spot bitcoin ETF flows in 2024 and 2025 ranged from about $100 million to $1 billion, he added.

The contrast suggests ETF flows now outweigh the new supply created by miners, blunting the halving’s direct impact. Additionally, those flows can also reverse, adding selling pressure on the price of bitcoin, as seen recently, making these ETF moves a dominant force in price moves.

Aryan Sheikhalian, investor and head of research at CMT Digital, agreed with Greenspan and Fernandes, saying the mechanism and fundamentals that have historically driven the bitcoin halving cycle are fading.

“New supply from miners is de minimis next to spot bitcoin ETFs and corporate U.S. Treasury flows, and those flows set both the top and this year’s unwind,” Sheikhalian said.

There are, however, still some believers in this four-year cycle of halving, and its historical impact and miner economics remain fundamental mechanics of the bitcoin market.

Shaw Walters, founder of Eliza Labs and the open-source ElizaOS framework, has declared the Eliza token “dead” and confirmed the foundation has begun winding down after settling a lawsuit by transferring its remaining treasury and available funds.

According to a post published by Walters on X, the settlement followed a lawsuit brought by Burwick Law, which he said the project could not afford to contest despite believing the claims lacked merit. He added that the agreement transferred “the rest of the treasury and all the money” the foundation had to a group of token holders.

I guess I should say something about the token

Look. I worked my ass off to the point I got a frozen shoulder and severe health issues from overworking and typing, and it was never enough

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We built cool shit but it was completely ignored because number down

It felt like the…

— Shaw (spirit/acc) (@shawmakesmagic) August 4, 2026

The announcement ends foundation support for the token while separating its future from the Eliza open-source software project, which Walters said will continue under his control because he owns the underlying intellectual property. He said he has no intention of supporting another token tied to Eliza.

Burwick lawsuit led to treasury settlement

Burwick Law filed a federal class action lawsuit in April in the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York against Walters, Eliza Labs and affiliated parties. The complaint accused the project of false advertising, deceptive acts and practices, negligent misrepresentation and unjust enrichment.

According to the lawsuit, the project promoted itself as an autonomous AI-managed venture fund governed by an independent AI agent while allegedly remaining under the control of Walters and other insiders. The filing also challenged the project’s token migration from ai16z to ElizaOS, claiming the process diluted existing holders after venture capital firm Andreessen Horowitz objected to the original ai16z branding.

Walters said on X that the project lacked the financial resources to continue the legal fight and instead settled by handing over the remaining treasury.

He also rejected suggestions that he personally profited from the project, saying he never sold his ai16z holdings and received only what he described as a modest salary comparable to other engineers on the team.

Eliza token support has ended

Alongside confirming the foundation’s closure, Walters said holders should not expect buybacks, treasury support or any mechanism designed to support the token’s price.

He wrote that the token is “dead” and described it as “completely ngmi,” adding that he no longer owns any tokens and will not back the asset in the future. Walters advised holders to either sell their tokens or manage them independently because, according to him, there is no foundation left to provide financial support.

His post also blamed what he described as speculative trading culture and constant criticism from parts of the crypto community for influencing his decision to leave token-related projects behind. Walters argued that much of the criticism came from investors unwilling to accept losses from speculative trading rather than from people interested in the technology itself.

According to the statement, he has ruled out launching another token connected to Eliza and said any future work around the project will remain separate from crypto assets.

ElizaOS development will continue without a token

While ending support for the token, Walters said development of ElizaOS itself will continue.

He said his long-term focus remains building open-source AI agent software capable of giving users greater control over their own data and enabling locally operated, crypto-enabled AI agents. He added that Eliza would continue building independently even if another open-source project eventually surpassed it, saying the team would contribute to whichever open-source effort best advanced the technology.

The comments are consistent with the direction the project outlined earlier. In January 2025, ElizaOS released a technical whitepaper describing the platform as an open-source operating system for AI agents capable of interacting with blockchain networks, smart contracts and decentralized applications.

The paper said the framework was built with a modular architecture consisting of a Runtime, Adapter, Character, Client and Plugin system, allowing developers to customize AI agents without modifying the core software. It also outlined support for ecosystems including Solana, Ethereum and TON, alongside integrations with AI models from OpenAI, Llama and Qwen.

At the time, the roadmap also included Hierarchical Task Networks, a planning system intended to help AI agents break complex objectives into smaller executable tasks.

Eliza project has changed since the ai16z launch

The project first launched on Solana in October 2024 as ai16z, presenting itself as an AI-managed decentralized autonomous organization and venture-style investment fund where an autonomous AI agent would help guide investment decisions and governance.

Its identity expanded during the rebrand to ElizaOS in early 2025, when the project repositioned itself as a platform for creating, deploying and managing AI agents rather than focusing on a single AI-managed investment vehicle.

The migration also increased the token supply from 6.6 billion to 11 billion units, with circulating supply rising to about 7.4 billion tokens, according to project documentation released during the transition. Developers said the expanded platform would allow AI agents to be created, tokenized and deployed across different use cases while continuing development of the underlying open-source framework.

Although the foundation is now being wound down, Walters said the engineering work will continue. In his post, he described artificial intelligence development as more constructive than the current crypto environment and said his team would keep building Eliza every day without returning to a foundation-backed token model.

The MiCA Crypto Alliance launched its MiCA CASP Tracker on Aug. 5, turning public authorisation data from the European Securities and Markets Authority into a searchable directory for crypto users, businesses and compliance teams.

The tool allows users to check whether a company appears in ESMA’s Markets in Crypto-Assets register and review the services it may legally provide. Each profile can show the firm’s name, Legal Entity Identifier, home country, national regulator, authorisation date and approved service categories.

MiCA tracker makes ESMA data easier to search

ESMA currently publishes its interim MiCA register through downloadable files. The latest version was dated July 31. The regulator says it republishes the data weekly after receiving updates from national competent authorities.

Moreso, the new tracker adds search and comparison functions. Users can filter records by company, country, regulator or authorised service. This can help a customer distinguish between a firm approved for custody and one permitted to operate a trading platform, exchange assets or execute client orders.

The MiCA Regulation defines ten regulated crypto services. They cover custody, trading platform operation, crypto-to-fiat exchange, crypto-to-crypto exchange, order execution, token placement, order transmission, advice, portfolio management and asset transfers.

A company’s appearance in the register does not mean every product it offers falls under MiCA. ESMA has said crypto lending and borrowing are not covered by the regulation’s service list. The Alliance also excludes firms operating only under other rules, including businesses handling financial instruments under MiFID.

July deadline makes licence checks more urgent

The tracker arrives after MiCA’s main transition period ended on July 1. ESMA instructed unauthorised providers to stop accepting new EU clients, opening accounts and marketing covered services. Firms winding down may only take actions needed to transfer assets or close customer positions.

However, ESMA also told consumers to verify providers through its official register. Customers using unauthorised platforms do not receive MiCA safeguards, including protections covering client assets. As crypto.news reported, the deadline required firms without authorisation to secure approval or wind down covered services.

Licensing activity has continued since the deadline. ESMA added BNY’s Belgian unit and 14 other providers in a late-July update. The additions included banks, payment companies and crypto businesses.

ESMA remains the authoritative source

The MiCA Crypto Alliance stressed that its tracker is an independent research tool rather than an official regulatory database. It uses publicly available ESMA information and plans to update as new authorisations appear. However, the Alliance states that the ESMA register remains the authoritative record.

This distinction matters because ESMA says its weekly register may not immediately reflect information already held by national regulators. The database can also retain withdrawn authorisations while recording their effective end dates. Users should therefore check the authorisation status and exact approved services rather than treating a listing as blanket approval.

The tracker’s next test will be how quickly it reflects ESMA’s weekly updates, licence withdrawals and changes to approved services. It offers a simpler starting point for verification, but final checks should still be completed through ESMA and the relevant national regulator.

Boerse Stuttgart Digital and institutional crypto trading firm Tradias have completed their merger after clearing the required ownership control procedure, creating a combined digital asset infrastructure unit with about 300 employees.

The transaction was first announced in February, when the companies agreed to combine their regulated crypto businesses and expand their services for banks, brokers and other financial institutions across Europe.

The merged business will operate under the Boerse Stuttgart Digital name, while Tradias will remain the brand for trading services, according to a Wednesday announcement.

The unit will provide trading, custody, staking and tokenization services and will be headquartered in Frankfurt and Stuttgart, with additional locations in Athens, Beirut, Berlin, Dubai, Madrid, Milan and Ljubljana.

Tradias founder Christopher Beck and Boerse Stuttgart Digital managing director Ulli Spankowski will serve as co-CEOs.

Boerse Stuttgart Digital serves institutions including DZ Bank, DekaBank, Intesa Sanpaolo and Société Générale-FORGE. Tradias works with clients including flatexDEGIRO, dwpbank and European government institutions.

Tradias provides trading and market-making services for more than 150 cryptocurrencies and other digital assets. Financial terms of the transaction were not disclosed.

Related: BNY to offer institutional crypto staking through Galaxy partnership

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