Key Insights

• Crypto market reversed fast as Trump’s Iran war stance crushed hopes of de-escalation and triggered risk-off selling.
• Bitcoin trades like a macro asset, while altcoins lead losses as oil spikes, yields rise, and the dollar strengthens.
• Market outlook remains fragile, with traders watching war signals and dollar strength for the next crypto move

What happens when markets price in peace but receive a tougher war stance instead? They sell first and reassess later. That is exactly what unfolded after Donald Trump addressed the Iran conflict from the White House on April 1.

Ahead of the speech, expectations had been building around a possible de-escalation. Analysts, including Kobeissi Letter, pointed to signals suggesting a potential wind-down. Instead, Trump reinforced a hardline position, stating that the United States would continue its aggressive posture toward Iran.

The next big question tonight:

Tons of major news outlets reported the same information ahead of President Trump’s address to the nation, sending markets sharply higher.

Almost all “insider sources” signaled Trump would be “winding down” the war tonight.

What just happened?

Advertisement

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) April 2, 2026

The reaction was immediate and broad-based—crypto, equities, oil, and the U.S. dollar all reversed sharply.

Crypto Market Reverses After Trump’s Iran Remarks

The crypto market quickly erased its short-lived relief rally following the speech. Investors hoping for clarity on de-escalation or a reopening timeline for the Strait of Hormuz were left disappointed.

Source: Coinmarketcap

As a result, selling pressure returned across digital assets:

• Bitcoin hovered around $66,600
• Ethereum dropped near $2,050
• XRP traded around $1.31
• BNB held near $590
• Solana led losses among major altcoins

This price action reinforces a key trend: Bitcoin is not behaving as a traditional safe-haven asset during this conflict. Instead, it is trading more like a macro-sensitive risk asset.

The speech effectively dismantled the emerging peace narrative, pushing markets back into a defensive stance. Altcoins, particularly high-beta assets like Solana, absorbed the heaviest losses as traders reduced risk exposure.

Oil Surge and Macro Pressure Weigh on Crypto

Beyond crypto, the broader macro environment shifted rapidly. Following Trump’s remarks, Brent crude surged over 6% to $107.69, reflecting heightened geopolitical risk and concerns over supply disruptions.

Global markets reacted sharply:

• U.S. stock futures fell 1.3%
• Japan’s Nikkei dropped 2.4%
• South Korea’s Kospi declined 4.7%

For crypto markets, this macro shift is critical.

Rising oil prices can fuel inflation expectations, which in turn strengthens the U.S. dollar and keeps bond yields elevated. These conditions typically pressure risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.

At the same time:

• The 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.376%
• The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) held firm above 100

This environment explains why altcoins sold off more aggressively than Bitcoin, as traders moved to reduce volatility exposure rather than chase uncertain upside.

Traders Shift to Risk-Off Mode

The immediate takeaway from the market reaction is clear: traders are prioritizing capital preservation.

Going forward, markets will focus on two key signals:

1. Any softening in geopolitical rhetoric
2. Reduced risk to global shipping routes, particularly the Strait of Hormuz

Without improvement on either front, the crypto market is likely to remain highly sensitive to headlines and prone to sharp swings.

The pre-speech rally demonstrated that bullish sentiment still exists—but it is fragile and easily disrupted by macro developments.

Macro Now Drives Crypto

The latest selloff highlights a broader shift in how digital assets are behaving.

Geopolitics is influencing crypto through macroeconomic channels rather than crypto-native factors. Oil prices, bond yields, the U.S. dollar, and equity markets are now leading indicators, with crypto reacting afterward.

While blockchain-specific developments still matter, traders increasingly need to interpret global macro conditions before making crypto decisions.

Outlook: Defensive Trend Likely to Continue

Looking ahead, digital assets are expected to remain in a defensive posture as long as geopolitical tensions persist in the Middle East.

Although April seasonality has historically favored bullish momentum, the current environment is dominated by a hope → headline → reversal cycle. The Trump Iran speech is a clear example of how quickly sentiment can shift.

A sustained recovery in crypto will likely depend on:

• A formal ceasefire or de-escalation
• Stabilization in oil prices
• Weakness in the U.S. dollar

Until then, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) remains a critical indicator. A strengthening dollar continues to act as a major headwind for Bitcoin and the broader altcoin market.

Researchers at Google DeepMind have warned that the open internet can be used to manipulate autonomous AI agents and hijack their actions.

The study titled “AI Agent Traps” comes as companies deploy AI agents for real-world tasks and attackers begin using AI for cyber operations.

Instead of focusing on how models are built, the research looks at the environments agents operate in. It identifies six types of traps that take advantage of how AI systems read and act on information from the web.

The six attack categories outlined in the paper include content injection traps, semantic manipulation traps, cognitive state traps, behavioural control traps, systemic traps, and human in the loop traps.

Content injection stands out as one of the most direct risks. Hidden instructions can be placed inside HTML comments, metadata, or cloaked page elements, allowing agents to read commands that remain invisible to human users. Tests showed these techniques can take control of agent behaviour with high success rates.

Semantic manipulation works differently, relying on language and framing rather than hidden code. Pages loaded with authoritative phrasing or disguised as research scenarios can influence how agents interpret tasks, sometimes slipping harmful instructions past built-in safeguards.

Another layer targets memory systems. By planting fabricated information into sources that agents rely on for retrieval, attackers can influence outputs over time, with the agent treating false data as verified knowledge.

Behavioural control attacks take a more direct route by targeting what an agent actually does. In these cases, jailbreak instructions can be embedded into normal web content and read by the system during routine browsing. Separate tests showed that agents with broad access permissions could be pushed into locating and transmitting sensitive data, including passwords and local files, to external destinations.

System-level risks extend beyond individual agents, with the paper warning that coordinated manipulation across many automated systems could trigger cascading effects, similar to past market flash crashes driven by algorithmic trading loops.

Human reviewers are also part of the attack surface, as carefully crafted outputs can appear credible enough to gain approval, allowing harmful actions to pass through oversight without raising suspicion.

How to defend against these risks?

To counter these risks, researchers suggest a mix of adversarial training, input filtering, behavioural monitoring, and reputation systems for web content. They also point to the need for clearer legal frameworks around liability when AI agents execute harmful actions.

The paper stops short of offering a complete fix and argues that the industry still lacks a shared understanding of the problem, leaving current defenses scattered and often focused on the wrong areas.

Key Highlights

• • Sakura Internet’s stock price climbed 20.27% following Microsoft’s revelation of a $10 billion AI commitment in Japan
  • The tech giant will deploy 1.6 trillion yen from 2026 through 2029 focusing on AI systems and cybersecurity initiatives
  • Partnership includes Sakura Internet and SoftBank delivering Japan-based AI computational power, featuring GPU resources
  • Training initiative targets 1 million Japanese engineers and developers by the end of the decade
  • SoftBank Group shares increased 0.22% while SoftBank Corp. climbed 1.02% following the announcement

Shares of Sakura Internet experienced a significant 20.27% surge on Friday following Microsoft’s revelation of a substantial AI investment strategy in Japan, with the cloud services provider designated as a primary collaborator along with SoftBank.

Microsoft announced a four-year, $10 billion investment package in Japan, part of the US company’s Asia-wide push to expand in a region hungry for artificial intelligence services- Bloomberg

•$10B for data centers and AI infrastructure through 2029
•Builds on $2.9B announced… pic.twitter.com/laIAvfd383

— Yeboah Walee (@YeboahWalee) April 3, 2026

The Redmond-based technology giant confirmed plans to deploy 1.6 trillion yen — approximately $10 billion — across Japan from 2026 to 2029. This capital allocation encompasses AI infrastructure development, cybersecurity collaboration efforts, and an ambitious commitment to educate 1 million engineers and developers over the next six years.

Microsoft Corporation, MSFT

Brad Smith, Microsoft Vice Chair and President, disclosed these plans during his Tokyo visit, which included meetings with Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi.

Sakura Internet, operating a network of data centers throughout Japan, will collaborate with SoftBank to deliver AI computational capabilities through this alliance. The partnership specifically includes graphics processing units situated physically inside Japanese borders.

This infrastructure arrangement enables corporations and governmental bodies to handle confidential information domestically while maintaining access to Microsoft Azure cloud services.

Additional discussions between SoftBank and Microsoft Japan involve creating a combined solution allowing Azure users to access SoftBank’s AI computing infrastructure seamlessly.

Friday’s trading saw SoftBank Group finish 0.22% higher, with SoftBank Corp. posting gains of 1.02%.

Japan’s Strategic Importance

Microsoft highlighted Japan’s robust AI adoption rates as a key motivation behind this investment decision. Data from Microsoft’s AI Diffusion Report indicates that approximately 20% of Japan’s working-age population currently utilizes generative AI technologies, surpassing the global average of roughly 16%.

Smith emphasized the expanding demand for cloud computing and AI capabilities in Japan, noting that this investment supports Prime Minister Takaichi’s strategic vision of leveraging cutting-edge technology for economic expansion and national security objectives.

Extended Collaboration Framework

In addition to Sakura Internet and SoftBank, Microsoft revealed partnerships with five additional prominent Japanese technology firms to achieve its goal of training 1 million AI professionals by 2030. This roster includes industry leaders such as NTT Data Corp., NEC, Fujitsu, and Hitachi.

The collaborative framework will also facilitate advancement of indigenous large language models within Japan’s technology ecosystem.

Microsoft’s cybersecurity collaboration with Japanese authorities encompasses intelligence exchange regarding cyber threats and coordinated crime prevention measures.

Sakura Internet concluded Friday’s session at 2,967.00 JPY, representing a 500.00 JPY increase for the trading day.

Key Insights

• In Google Quantum AI report, Cardano was ranked above Ethereum as it showed better quantum resistance.
• Exposed wallets and vulnerable smart contracts are major risks to Ethereum.
• The UTXO model used by Cardano provides increased resistance to quantum attacks in the long term.

Cardano was mentioned 5 times (plus 3 citations) on the Google Quantum AI whitepaper.

And it was ranked in the second-best tier for quantum resistance, right behind purpose-built quantum-proof chains.

Above Ethereum. Above Solana. Above XRP.

The UTXO architecture gives Cardano…

— Dan Gambardello (@dangambardello) April 1, 2026

Advertisement

Cardano Making Progress in Google Quantum AI Report

The recent Google Quantum AI whitepaper has rattled the crypto sector with the ranking of Cardano over Ethereum in quantum resistance. The results confused most investors and developers particularly considering the fact that Ethereum had dominated the decentralized applications and smart contracts.

The report stated that Cardano has performed better than Ethereum as well as Solana and XRP, which were ranked in the second-best rank in the field of quantum resilience. Quantum-proof blockchains were only ranked higher by specially designed blockchains.

This acknowledgement is an important achievement of Cardano, which supports the reputation of the blockchain as a research-based and security-oriented one.

The whitepaper mentions Cardano several times, indicating the increasing academic and institutional attention to its architecture. These results are now leading to a more general re-evaluation of the way blockchains need to be ready against future quantum threats.

The UTXO Model of Cardano Is Unique Because of the Following Reasons

The use of the UTXO (Unspent Transaction Output) model is one of the largest strengths of Cardano. UTXO structures provide greater transaction exposure and wallet security compared to the account-based system of Ethereum.

Public keys are not incessantly revealed in the system of Cardano following transactions. This minimizes the attack surface that quantum computers may utilize in future. Cardano offers extra protection to users because of its ability to make sensitive cryptographic data harder to see by restricting the time that the data is in view.

On the contrary, Ethereum design reveals the public keys after a transaction. These keys are stored on the blockchain permanently, which provides a long-term weakness. With the development of quantum computing, this design decision might be a significant security threat.

The results of Google give indirect support to the strategy adopted by Cardano and imply that the architecture would be more resistant to upcoming quantum threats. This competitive edge makes Cardano a good competitor in the dynamic blockchain security market.

The Structural Risks of Ethereum Get into Focus

The same report cast serious doubt on the strength of Ethereum during a quantum computing era. Five possible attack vectors were described by researchers, which focus on various elements of the network.

Wallet exposure is one of the most urgent problems. The report approximates the number of ETH already in wallets with exposed public keys to be 20.5 million. In case a quantum computer powerful enough appears, these wallets would be broken in the nearest future, which may be in a few minutes per key.

The wallets with high value are especially vulnerable. Tens of billions of dollars of digital assets could be at risk with a potential of being exposed to dozens of major wallets. More vulnerabilities are also brought about by the smart contract ecosystem of Ethereum.

Most of the smart contracts that are run by an administration, such as stablecoins and token issuance, use a set of cryptographic standards that might not resist quantum attacks. The report indicates that there are approximately 70 large contracts that are in this high risk category.

The Future of Ethereum

These risks are not being overlooked by Ethereum developers. As a reaction, a post-quantum research program was initiated earlier this year, with a long-term upgrade roadmap expected to be completed by 2029. The plan will contain various hard forks that will enhance the cryptographic defenses.

Nevertheless, these upgrades are associated with enormous challenges. The current smart contracts cannot be updated automatically through the network. Every protocol should update its codebase separately, adopt new cryptographic standards, and change keys in the cases when it is required.

This piecemeal system may slow the adoption and expose sections of the ecosystem to long durations. Other projects can postpone or even skip upgrades, which exposes the risk window.

A Movement toward Structural Resilience

The results of Google Quantum AI have changed the discussion to long-term security instead of short-term performance. Although Ethereum remains the most widely used and innovative, its architecture is under greater scrutiny now.

Cardano, in its turn, enjoys the advantage of being founded on formal approaches and proactive security standards. Its model is based on UTXO and eliminates the need for more intricate upgrades and quantum threats.

Key Highlights

• Bittensor’s TAO token experienced a near-doubling in value throughout March, reaching around $317 with a market capitalization exceeding $3 billion
• Subnet 3 of the Bittensor network unveiled Covenant-72B, a large language model with 72 billion parameters developed through over 70 decentralized nodes
• Covenant-72B achieved a 67.1 score on the MMLU evaluation, performing comparably to Meta’s Llama 2 70B model
• Grayscale submitted an amended S-1 registration statement to the SEC for establishing a Bittensor (TAO) Trust
• More than 68% of TAO’s 10.7 million token supply is locked in staking

The TAO token from Bittensor experienced remarkable growth throughout March 2026, with its value nearly doubling to reach approximately $317. This substantial price movement propelled the network’s overall market capitalization beyond the $3 billion threshold.

This significant price appreciation occurred alongside a groundbreaking technical achievement within the Bittensor network. The development team behind Subnet 3 unveiled Covenant-72B, an impressive language model containing 72 billion parameters that was trained using a network of more than 70 geographically distributed nodes.

The model demonstrated its capabilities by achieving a 67.1 score on the MMLU benchmark, an industry-standard evaluation metric for assessing large language model performance. This performance level positions Covenant-72B competitively alongside Meta’s Llama 2 70B model.

The achievement marked a significant validation point, demonstrating that decentralized, permissionless artificial intelligence training infrastructure can deliver performance metrics comparable to traditional centralized approaches. Previously, distributed training methodologies faced skepticism regarding their viability, with critics arguing they were inherently too inefficient and disjointed for practical applications.

The primary subnet token associated with this breakthrough, τemplar (SN3), experienced explosive growth exceeding 400% over the preceding month, achieving a market valuation approaching $130 million.

Expanding Ecosystem Activity Beyond Covenant-72B

The wider Bittensor subnet infrastructure experienced notable developments across multiple projects. Targon (SN4), which operates as a decentralized marketplace for GPU computational resources under Manifold Labs’ management, successfully negotiated a substantial six-figure partnership to provide infrastructure for Dippy AI’s operations, a platform serving 8.6 million active users.

The GMCI AI Index, a composite metric tracking leading AI-focused cryptocurrency tokens, experienced a 48% appreciation since early February. Bittensor holds a substantial 24.89% allocation within this index and served as the primary catalyst for the overall performance.

The index composition also features Render (RNDR) and Artificial Superintelligence Alliance (ASI), with these three assets collectively representing more than 71% of total index weighting. However, despite recent positive momentum, the index continues trading 84% below its peak valuation established during the first quarter of 2024.

Grayscale Advances SEC Registration for TAO Trust

On April 3, 2026, Grayscale filed an amended S-1 registration statement with the Securities and Exchange Commission for a Bittensor (TAO) Trust. The investment vehicle is designed as a passive holding structure that maintains TAO tokens and provides investors with exposure to the token’s price performance through tradable trust shares.

Bittensor’s circulating supply currently stands at 10.7 million TAO tokens. More than 68% of this available supply is currently committed to staking mechanisms.

The launch of Covenant-72B alongside Grayscale’s regulatory filing constitute the most significant recent catalysts for TAO token price action as of April 3, 2026.

Key Takeaways

• Bitcoin hovers near $66,600 as Good Friday shuts down CME futures and ETF trading
• Net Bitcoin demand dropped to -63,000 BTC despite record ETF and corporate buying reaching multi-month peaks
• Major holders have shifted to distribution mode, with 1,000–10,000 BTC wallets declining by approximately 188,000 BTC from highs
• U.S. equities broke their five-week downtrend, with both S&P 500 and Nasdaq posting modest weekly gains
• WTI crude oil exploded 11% to reach $111.54, marking its biggest single-day dollar increase in over four decades

As Easter weekend approaches, Bitcoin finds itself on shaky ground while traditional equity markets managed to eke out modest gains after an extended selloff.

[[LINK_START_2]]Bitcoin[[LINK_END_2]] was hovering around the $66,600 mark on Thursday as Good Friday holiday closures shuttered both CME futures and ETF trading platforms. This pause eliminates two critical demand channels precisely when buying momentum has already weakened considerably.

According to CryptoQuant analytics, 30-day apparent demand has fallen to approximately -63,000 BTC. This negative reading persists despite ETF purchases reaching roughly 50,000 BTC during the past month—the strongest level observed since October 2025.

Strategy, the prominent corporate Bitcoin accumulator, acquired approximately 44,000 BTC during this same timeframe. However, selling pressure from other market participants proved substantial enough to offset these significant inflows.

Whale Wallets Shift to Distribution

The most significant pressure indicator emerges from large-scale wallet activity. Addresses containing between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC have pivoted toward net selling behavior. Their annual balance shift declined to roughly -188,000 BTC, contrasting sharply with the positive 200,000 BTC recorded at the 2024 cycle top.

Medium-tier holders have similarly decelerated their accumulation patterns. The Coinbase Premium indicator has remained in negative territory, typically signaling diminished appetite among U.S. spot market participants.

Singapore-headquartered market maker Enflux informed CoinDesk that Bitcoin’s downside protection remains partially anchored to Federal Reserve rate cut expectations. This foundational support is currently facing significant testing.

The ISM prices-paid metric surged to 78.3 in March, reaching its highest point since June 2022. Such elevated readings diminish the likelihood of imminent rate reductions, thereby pressuring Bitcoin’s macro-supported price foundation.

ETF movement patterns already mirror this transition. The week ending March 24 recorded $296 million in net ETF withdrawals. Early April inflows have remained subdued.

CryptoQuant identified a resistance band spanning $71,500 to $81,200 for any potential recovery bounce. The upcoming critical data release is U.S. core PCE inflation scheduled for April 9.

Equity and Energy Markets

U.S. stock markets concluded the week with gains despite Thursday’s challenging trading session. The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 61 points during Thursday’s action, yet all three primary indexes finished the week positively, ending a five-week consecutive losing streak.

The trading day was characterized by an extraordinary movement in crude oil markets. West Texas Intermediate crude concluded trading at $111.54, representing an 11% daily advance. The $11.42 dollar gain constitutes the largest single-session increase in WTI records extending back to 1983.

The price explosion followed President Trump’s address regarding the Iranian conflict situation, which failed to provide fresh details on resolving the Strait of Hormuz closure.

J.P. Morgan strategist Fabio Bassi projected that oil prices will likely maintain elevated levels throughout the second quarter. He positioned near-term risk within the $120–$130 per barrel band, noting that prices exceeding $150 remain possible should Strait disruptions extend into mid-May.

Market participants will also monitor the March nonfarm payrolls data release, scheduled for Friday despite equity market closures. Economic forecasters anticipate employment growth to rebound following February’s weather- and strike-impacted results.