Bitcoin price correlation with Binance Research‘s Global Easing Breadth Index, a composite tracking monetary policy direction across 41 central banks, has flipped from +0.21 before spot ETF approval to −0.778 in 2026.
That isn’t a weakening of the old relationship; it’s a complete structural inversion, nearly three times stronger in the opposite direction.
The new Binance Research case study argues that Bitcoin has evolved from a macro lagging receiver to a leading pricer, front-running Fed interest rate decisions rather than reacting to them, and increasingly indifferent to ETF flow headlines that once moved the market within hours.
If that thesis holds, the entire macro playbook that active traders have used for the past decade breaks down.
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CPI prints, FOMC language, and rate trajectory models were once the primary variables in any serious BTC position. In 2026, Binance’s data suggests those triggers have been demoted, and knowing what replaced them is now the edge.
Key Takeaways:
Correlation inversion: Bitcoin’s correlation with Binance’s Global Easing Breadth Index shifted from +0.21 before ETF approval to −0.778 in 2026-a complete structural reversal, not a gradual drift.
Institutional positioning lead: ETF-driven institutional investors now build BTC positions 6–12 months ahead of Fed policy changes, making Bitcoin a forward-looking price discovery mechanism rather than a reactive risk asset.
ETF market scale: Cumulative Bitcoin ETF inflows reached $56 billion by Q1 2026, with assets under management at $87.5 billion-approximately 6% of Bitcoin’s total market cap.
Flow reversal signal: After $6.4 billion in outflows from November 2025 through February 2026, Bitcoin ETFs absorbed $1.3–$2.5 billion in March 2026 inflows, suggesting institutions are treating dips as accumulation opportunities.
Supply shock trajectory: Bitwise projects ETFs will purchase more than 100% of all new Bitcoin issuance in 2026, a demand-supply dynamic with no historical precedent in BTC’s market structure.
On-chain confirmation: Exchange reserve depletion and elevated LTH supply corroborate the Binance macro data-internal accumulation metrics, not Fed language, are now the load-bearing price drivers.
What the Binance Data Actually Shows – and Why the Old Correlation Is Now Running in Reverse
The −0.778 correlation reading between Bitcoin price and the Global Easing Breadth Index is the headline number, but the mechanism behind it is what matters.
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Before the January 2024 launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States, retail traders dominated BTC price discovery, reacting immediately to macro signals, selling on rate-hike language, and buying when easing breadth widened.
That reflex produced a mild positive correlation: more global central bank easing led to greater risk appetite, and BTC benefited.
Source: Binance
Institutional investors entering through ETF vehicles operate on a fundamentally different timeline. Binance Research documents that these players now build positions 6–12 months ahead of expected policy changes, effectively pricing in Fed decisions before official announcements arrive.
The result: when the Fed finally eases, BTC has already moved, and the correlation appears negative to any observer measuring it in real time.
On-chain data reinforces the structural argument. Long-term holder (LTH) supply has remained at historically elevated levels through Q1 2026 despite price volatility, consistent with accumulation rather than distribution.
Exchange reserve depletion continues-Bitcoin held on centralized exchanges has trended lower across the cycle, a signal that coins are moving into cold storage rather than toward sell-side liquidity.
The MVRV ratio, which compares market cap to realized cap, has held below 2.0 throughout early 2026, indicating the market remains well below the euphoria zone that has historically preceded major tops.
Together, these on-chain metrics describe a market structure where supply is contracting and patient capital is dominant-conditions that make BTC less reactive to short-term macro noise, not more.
The data makes the decoupling thesis concrete: Bitcoin isn’t ignoring the Fed because traders have become irrational. It’s ignoring the Fed because the marginal buyer has changed, and the new marginal buyer already knows what the Fed is going to do.
What the Decoupling Means for How You Position in Q2 2026
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The practical consequence of the Binance thesis is a signal hierarchy reorder. Traders who treat CPI prints and FOMC meetings as tier-one BTC catalysts are using outdated inputs.
The new signal stack, as the data implies, runs: ETF weekly flow data first, LTH supply and exchange reserve metrics second, legislative and regulatory developments third, and Fed language a distant fourth.
The bull case requires three conditions to remain intact: ETF inflows sustain above $1 billion per month through Q2, exchange reserves continue declining (currently trending toward multi-year lows), and LTH supply holds above 14.5 million BTC without a significant distribution event.
If those three hold simultaneously, the supply-demand math supports a price structure where $90,000 functions as support rather than resistance, and the Bitwise supply-shock thesis moves from projection to observable market dynamic.
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The bear case activates if institutional conviction breaks. A return to sustained ETF outflows, specifically two consecutive months above $2 billion net negative, would signal that the marginal buyer has stepped back, removing the demand anchor that has held the decoupling structure in place.
In that scenario, macro sensitivity could partially reassert, and the $70,000–$72,000 on-chain support band identified in current technical analysis becomes the first meaningful test level.
Binance Research put it plainly: a peak in global easing may already be old news for BTC. Watch monthly ETF flow totals and LTH supply in Q2; those two numbers will confirm or invalidate the decoupling thesis faster than any Fed statement will.
JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon said “new technologies” are intensifying competition across the financial sector, with blockchain-based players emerging alongside traditional rivals.
In his annual shareholder letter on Monday, Dimon identified artificial intelligence, data and advanced technology as “key to the future,” signaling a shift toward more automated, data-driven financial services.
While blockchain and digital assets were not a central focus, Dimon acknowledged that “a whole new set of competitors is emerging based on blockchain, which includes stablecoins, smart contracts and other forms of tokenization.”
The comments come as JPMorgan continues to focus on its own blockchain initiatives, even as Dimon emphasized that the bank’s long-term success will depend largely on its ability to deploy AI across its operations.
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Dimon’s shareholder letter highlighted the bank’s scale, including client assets, wholesale funding and consumer deposits. Source: JPMorgan
JPMorgan has been expanding its in-house blockchain infrastructure, now known as Kinexys, which enables near-instant fund transfers without relying on traditional intermediaries.
The platform is targeting up to $10 billion in daily transaction volume and recently moved toward that goal by onboarding Japan’s Mitsubishi Corporation. Other clients include Qatar National Bank and major institutional players such as Siemens and BlackRock.
Kinexys is also being positioned as a broader tokenization platform, with JPMorgan aiming to expand into markets such as private credit and real estate.
Dimon comments come as stablecoin battle heats up in Washington
Dimon’s mention of blockchain and stablecoins comes at a contentious moment for the banking industry, as US lawmakers continue to debate digital asset legislation.
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The passage of the GENIUS Act last year, which established a regulatory framework for stablecoins, is widely expected to accelerate adoption by providing clearer rules for issuers and institutions.
However, broader market structure legislation remains stalled in Congress. A key point of friction is yield-bearing stablecoins, which banking groups argue could undermine financial stability by allowing issuers to offer interest-like returns without adhering to the same regulatory requirements as banks.
The stablecoin market topped $315 billion in the first quarter. Source: CEX.io
Tensions have also spilled into the public sphere. Dimon and Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong have traded criticisms over the direction of crypto regulation, with Dimon pushing back against claims that banks are attempting to derail legislative efforts.
Industry lobbying groups, including the American Bankers Association, have made opposition to yield-bearing stablecoins a key policy priority this year.
Cointelegraph is committed to independent, transparent journalism. This news article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph’s Editorial Policy and aims to provide accurate and timely information. Readers are encouraged to verify information independently. Read our Editorial Policy https://cointelegraph.com/editorial-policy
President Trump’s DHS pay order has directed all Department of Homeland Security employees to be paid using redirected federal funds, but legal and budget experts say the administration may be violating a 150-year-old law that gives Congress sole control over federal spending.
Summary
Trump signed two executive directives — one on March 27 for TSA workers and an expanded memo on April 4 for all DHS employees — directing pay using funds from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, sidestepping the ongoing partial shutdown
Legal experts warn the move may conflict with the Antideficiency Act, which bars the executive branch from spending money that Congress has not appropriated for a specific purpose
The administration has provided no detailed public justification for how it is legally connecting TSA operations to the bill’s DHS border enforcement funds, drawing criticism from budget analysts on both sides
President Trump’s DHS pay order, which directs the Department of Homeland Security to pay all its employees using funds redirected from last year’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act, has put paychecks back in workers’ accounts but opened a serious constitutional question that legal experts say the administration has yet to answer. Trump initially signed a directive on March 27 covering TSA workers, then expanded it on April 4 to include all DHS employees, citing “an emergency situation compromising the Nation’s security.”
The Antideficiency Act, a 150-year-old federal statute, bars the executive branch from spending money that has not been expressly appropriated by Congress for the specific purpose being funded. Trump’s order directed the DHS secretary to use funds with “a reasonable and logical nexus to TSA operations” from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act — a law that allocated $10 billion to DHS for border-related functions, with no specific mention of TSA.
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Budget analysts flagged the ambiguity immediately. “The administration’s provided no real clarity about what they’re doing publicly that would allow someone to even figure out whether what they’re doing is legal or not legal,” Devin O’Connor, a senior fellow at the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, told CNBC. “They haven’t made the case for it in any kind of public way.”
Where the Money Is Coming From — and Why That Matters
Administration officials confirmed the payments are being drawn from the One Big Beautiful Bill’s DHS fund, which gave the secretary discretion to deploy resources supporting DHS’s border mission. Bobby Kogan of the Center for American Progress estimated the cost of funding TSA runs approximately $140 million per week, suggesting the administration could sustain payments for nearly a year before that pool runs dry. But critics note that the bill’s language does not cover TSA, which handles airport security rather than border enforcement, making the legal nexus tenuous.
Senate Majority Leader Thune acknowledged the order as a “short-term solution” that “takes the immediate pressure off,” while noting it does nothing to resolve the underlying standoff between the two chambers.
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The Constitutional Fault Line
As crypto.news reported, government shutdowns carry consequences beyond the immediate departments affected — including delays to economic data releases, stalled regulatory activity, and heightened uncertainty across financial markets. The constitutional issue here runs deeper than a funding dispute. Article I of the US Constitution vests the power of the purse exclusively in Congress. Trump’s move to unilaterally pay workers without an active appropriation mirrors actions that have historically invited legal challenge under the Antideficiency Act.
A second broader executive memo on April 4 extended the same approach to every DHS employee, not just TSA, including furloughed workers and those in agencies not obviously connected to the One Big Beautiful Bill’s border funding mandate. As crypto.news noted in its coverage of the DHS shutdown’s earlier market impact, prolonged fiscal uncertainty of this kind tends to weigh on investor sentiment and delay forward guidance from the Federal Reserve.
“America’s air travel system has reached its breaking point,” Trump said in his original March 27 memo. What remains unresolved is whether his chosen remedy is within his legal authority to execute.
Four U.S. economic releases between Wednesday and Friday will test whether Bitcoin (BTC) can hold above $67,000 or breaks lower into a deeper correction.
The sequence begins with the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes on Wednesday, followed by February Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation and Q4 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data on Thursday, and ends with March Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Friday.
Why This Week’s Data Matters for Bitcoin
BTC entered April trading around $69,000, down roughly 23% year-to-date after the worst opening quarter for digital assets since 2018.
Bitcoin Price Performance. Source: BeInCrypto
The Crypto Fear and Greed Index has hovered between 8 and 14 for over a month, registering deep extreme fear territory.
The Federal Reserve held rates steady at 3.50-3.75% at its March 18 meeting, while the updated dot plot projected just one cut before year-end 2026. PCE inflation expectations for 2026 were revised upward to 2.7%.
The Energy Information Administration revised its 2026 WTI forecast upward by $20 per barrel. That energy shock now feeds directly into this week’s inflation prints.
How Each Release Could Affect BTC
Bitcoin’s 24-hour correlation with the S&P 500 recently hit 0.94, confirming its behavior as a high-beta macro asset. That linkage means every inflation surprise or policy signal this week flows directly into crypto pricing.
Traders will scan for hawkish language around persistent inflation versus dovish acknowledgment of growth risks.
Historically, BTC has shown a consistent sell-the-news pattern around FOMC events. The pioneer crypto dropped after eight of nine FOMC events in 2025, with post-event declines of 5-10% common as positioning unwound.
Bitcoin FOMC Sell The News. Source: BeInCrypto
After the January 2026 minutes were released in February, BTC underperformed, while the dollar and bonds rallied.
A hawkish tilt this time would reinforce delayed cuts, pushing real yields higher and strengthening the USD.
A dovish surprise acknowledging transitory shocks could briefly lift BTC, with the pioneer crypto potentially going above $70,000.
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February PCE Inflation, Thursday 8:30 AM ET
The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge carries consensus forecasts of 0.4% month-over-month and 3.0% year-over-year for core PCE.
US Economic Releases This Week. Source: MarketWatch
Returning to a 3-handle on core PCE is both symbolically and practically significant for rate expectations.
A hotter print above 3.0-3.1% year-over-year would reinforce the higher-for-longer narrative, tightening financial conditions further.
A cooler reading below consensus would boost rate-cut odds and could push BTC 2-5% higher, similar to the February 2026 soft print that lifted BTC roughly 2.75%.
Q4 2025 GDP Final Estimate, Thursday 8:30 AM ET
The third estimate carries a consensus of 0.7% annualized, already sharply revised down from the advance reading of 1.4% and Q3’s strong 4.4%.
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Further weakness would signal an economy losing momentum, which paradoxically supports crypto by raising expectations for Fed easing.
GDP surprises typically drive smaller BTC reactions than inflation data, in the range of 1-3%. However, they amplify when they shift policy expectations alongside other releases on the same day.
March CPI, Friday 8:30 AM ET
This is the week’s most anticipated print. Consensus forecasts a headline jump to 3.3% year-over-year and 1.0% month-over-month, up sharply from February’s 2.4%.
That would represent the largest single-month acceleration since the 2022 energy crisis, driven almost entirely by gasoline and energy prices.
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US Inflation Seen Spiking in First Snapshot Since War Economists are penciling in a 1% increase in the consumer price index for March — the sharpest one-month advance since 2022 — after the Iran war pushed gas prices at the pump up by about $1 per gallon. At the same time, the… pic.twitter.com/QA2Z58pojz
Core CPI consensus sits at 0.3% monthly and 2.7% annually. The market reaction hinges on that core figure. If core holds at or below 0.3%, traders will likely treat the headline spike as a transitory energy event.
If core prints 0.4% or higher, the transitory narrative collapses, and rate cuts could get repriced out of 2026 entirely.
Hot CPI prints have consistently pressured BTC short-term through higher rate expectations. Misses spark relief rallies. With expectations already elevated, any deviation in either direction becomes highly market-moving.
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What Comes Next
The sequencing matters. Wednesday’s FOMC tone sets up Thursday’s PCE and GDP reaction, which then frames Friday’s CPI interpretation.
A dovish week with soft PCE, weak GDP, and contained core CPI would favor upside for crypto amid renewed liquidity hopes. A hawkish sweep with hot inflation prints risks a leg down toward the $65,000 support that BTC tested earlier in 2026.
That institutional bid provides a floor, but overall 30-day apparent demand remains deeply negative as large holders distribute aggressively.
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CME shifts and the DXY-BTC correlation will serve as real-time gauges of how each data point reprices rate expectations.
Fed Interest Rate Cut Probabilities. Source: CME FedWatch Tool
With BTC trapped between institutional accumulation and macro headwinds, this week’s four numbers will likely determine whether April lives up to its historically bullish seasonality or extends Q1’s pain.
Today, the Third Circuit Court ruled in favor of KalshiEX LLC, after the platform sued New Jersey regulators for trying to restrict its federally regulated prediction market operations.
The decision, handed down on April 6, 2026, reinforces the legitimacy of prediction markets and delivers a major boost to the industry.
The Kalshi Case Explained
Back in September 2025, Kalshi brought the case against Mary Jo Flaherty, a New Jersey state regulator, after facing restrictions on its operations at the state level.
Kalshi argued that it is already regulated at the federal level by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
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As a result, it claimed individual states should not have the authority to block or limit its services.
In response, state regulators maintained that prediction markets — particularly those tied to elections — could fall under state laws, including gambling-related restrictions.
This legal clash set up a broader question: whether federally regulated prediction markets can operate freely across the US, or if states can impose their own rules.
Today, the Third Circuit’s decision ultimately sided with Kalshi. It strengthens the argument that federal oversight takes priority in this space.
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Fun Fact: Prediction markets have historically outperformed polls in forecasting election outcomes. Studies show they aggregate information more efficiently than traditional polling methods!
The Third Circuit ruled in Kalshi’s favor. People use prediction markets because they’re more fair, transparent, and reward being right. Free markets work. We should keep them that way. This is a big win for the industry and millions of users. pic.twitter.com/Ay0dLtgZdV
Prediction markets allow users to trade contracts based on the outcome of future events, from elections to economic indicators. Unlike traditional betting, these markets are designed to aggregate information and reward accurate forecasting.
Proponents argue that prediction markets offer several advantages over conventional information sources:
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Transparency: Prices reflect real-time collective expectations, visible to everyone.
Accuracy: Participants have financial incentives to be correct, not just persuasive.
Fairness: Anyone can participate and benefit from accurate predictions.
Critics, however, have raised concerns about potential manipulation and the blurring of lines between financial markets and gambling. Regulatory agencies have taken different positions on where prediction markets should fit within existing legal frameworks.
What the Kalshi Ruling Means
The Third Circuit’s decision reinforces that prediction markets can operate within constitutional boundaries. For Kalshi, this means continued legal footing to expand its platform and offerings.
For the broader industry, the ruling sends a signal that courts are willing to recognize prediction markets as legitimate financial instruments rather than gambling operations.
Millions of users who rely on prediction markets for information and hedging now have greater certainty about the legal status of these platforms. As a result, the decision could accelerate institutional adoption and innovation in the space.
The prediction market industry just got its strongest legal endorsement yet.
A US appellate court has ruled against New Jersey gaming authorities for bringing an enforcement action against prediction market platform Kalshi over sports event contracts.
In a Monday-issued opinion, a panel of judges in the US Court of Appeals for the Third Circuit ruled 2-1 in favor of Kalshi’s argument that the company had a ”reasonable chance of success” claiming that the Commodity Exchange Act preempted state law, setting the stage for a potential battle over gaming laws in the US Supreme Court.
“This is a big win for the industry and millions of users,” Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour said in a social media post on X.
The appellate court’s opinion affirmed a lower court ruling, in which Kalshi argued that the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) had “exclusive jurisdiction” in regulating sports-related event contracts as swaps that fall under its purview.
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“Allowing New Jersey to enforce its gambling laws and state constitution would create an obstacle to executing the Act because such state enforcement would prohibit Kalshi, which operates a licensed [designated contract market] under the exclusive jurisdiction of the CFTC, from offering its sports-related event contracts in New Jersey,” wrote Circuit Judge David J. Porter. “This state regulation is exactly the patchwork that Congress replaced wholecloth by creating the CFTC.”
Monday’s Third Circuit opinion affirming lower court ruling. Source: PACER
The circuit court ruling came just days after a Nevada judge extended a ban on Kalshi offering event-based contracts, following several other state authorities cracking down on sports betting on prediction markets. The patchwork of state-level rulings could lead to the US Supreme Court taking up one of the cases, potentially changing its 2018 decision giving states the authority to regulate sports gambling.
In her dissent, Circuit Judge Jane Roth said the prediction markets platform’s actions were a “performative sleight meant to obscure the reality that Kalshi’s products are sports gambling,” adding that the company’s event contracts were “virtually indistinguishable” from those on betting websites:
“[T]he question of whether sports-event contracts are swaps is a thorny issue with the potential to radically upend the legal landscape governing the gambling industry, and I am not convinced the Majority’s analysis does this issue justice.”
CFTC chair reiterates agency’s position on prediction markets
CFTC Chair Michael Selig, the sole commissioner at the financial agency following the departure of acting chair Caroline Pham in December, has made prediction markets one of the commission’s central issues since taking office. In the last four months, Selig has claimed that the CFTC has “exclusive jurisdiction” in regulating event contracts on prediction markets, opened a proposed rule to public comment and filed an amicus brief supporting its position in the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals in a case involving Nevada’s gaming authorities.
“Our definition of commodity and statute is very broad,” Selig said at the Digital Assets and Emerging Tech Policy Summit at Vanderbilt University on Monday. “It includes events on sports, it includes events in politics, it includes corn and grains and all sorts of things. It doesn’t really distinguish between if you’re offering an event contract on grains, you’re regulating that differently than an event contract on sports.”
The CFTC chair added that there were exceptions for event contracts that were “readily susceptible to manipulation.”
Cointelegraph is committed to independent, transparent journalism. This news article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph’s Editorial Policy and aims to provide accurate and timely information. Readers are encouraged to verify information independently. Read our Editorial Policy https://cointelegraph.com/editorial-policy
As of 2026, about 25 US asset managers directly offer crypto products (ETFs, trusts, or funds). But the five largest crypto-focused asset managers now collectively oversee well over $100 billion in digital asset products.
Their dominance reflects how deeply institutional capital has embedded itself into crypto through regulated ETFs.
Five Firms Control Nearly $100 Billion in Bitcoin ETFs
Spot Bitcoin ETFs alone surpassed $86 billion in combined assets under management as of this writing, according to Coinglass data.
Bitcoin Spot ETFs Total Net Assets. Source: Coinglass
The competition among issuers has intensified as fee wars, product variety, and institutional distribution networks determine who captures the most capital.
The fee on this will be very interesting. We should know soon. I’m setting over/under at 0.24% which is one bp lower than IBIT. What does @NateGeraci and @JSeyff think?
BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) sits at $51.9 billion in AUM, representing approximately 45% of all spot Bitcoin ETF assets, according to SoSoValue data. During Q1 2026, IBIT pulled in $8.4 billion in net inflows, more than double any competitor.
The fund held approximately 782,180 BTC as of March 27, 2026, with BlackRock’s iShares Ethereum Trust (ETHA) adding several billion more. This pushes total crypto ETF exposure near $60 billion.
BlackRock’s BTC Holdings. Source: BlackRock
Meanwhile, Fidelity’s Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) manages $12.8 billion in AUM, holding approximately 187,813 BTC as of early March, and its Ethereum Fund (FETH) adds over $1.3 billion.
Fidelity attracted $4.1 billion in Q1 2026 net inflows, ranking second behind BlackRock.
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The firm’s self-custody model through Fidelity Digital Assets and its 0.25% fee structure have made it a preferred choice among compliance-focused institutional allocators.
Spot Bitcoin ETF Fee Comparison. Source: Fibo
Grayscale Defends Its Legacy
Still, Grayscale Investments remains the oldest and broadest crypto-focused asset manager, operating since 2013.
Its Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) held approximately 154,710 BTC as of this writing, valued at approximately $10 billion. The lower-fee Bitcoin Mini Trust (BTC) added another $3.4 billion, according to Grayscale.
Grayscale Fund Information. Source: Grayscale
GBTC outflows slowed to $1.2 billion in Q1 2026, a sharp decline from the multi-billion-dollar monthly outflows of 2024.
No Strategy buy announcement this week. But let’s talk about what just happened in Q1 2026. 🟠 📊 Q1 2026 Numbers: – 89,599 BTC acquired – $5.5 BILLION deployed – 2nd highest quarter in Strategy history – Buying ~2.5x faster than global mining – Supply vacuum: 53,149 BTC… pic.twitter.com/QbdzEPjw3n
Grayscale’s total platform exceeded $35 billion in AUM as of late 2025, and it maintains the broadest product pipeline, with a 36-asset watchlist for potential future ETF launches.
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Bitwise Wins on Variety and Altcoin Exposure
Elsewhere, Bitwise Asset Management surpassed $15 billion in client assets across more than 40 products. These span ETFs, separately managed accounts, private funds, hedge strategies, and staking.
Its standout position is in Solana ETFs. As of early January 2026, Bitwise controlled approximately 67% of all Solana ETF AUM, capturing $731 million out of the $1.09 billion total.
Galaxy Digital operates as a full-service merchant bank rather than a pure ETF issuer. Its asset management arm reported $9 billion in AUM with $2 billion in quarterly net inflows by Q3 2025.
By the end of 2025, total platform assets reached $12 billion, despite reporting a $482 million loss in the fourth quarter.
NOVOGRATZ’S GALAXY POSTS $482M LOSS IN CRYPTO CRASH Galaxy Digital reported a $482 million loss in the fourth quarter, far worse than expected, as falling crypto prices hit its portfolio. Bitcoin dropped 23% during the period, trading volumes fell 40%, and the firm’s shares slid…
Galaxy partners with State Street Global Advisors on actively managed digital asset ETFs and maintains exposure across trading, lending, staking, and venture capital.
Its hybrid model positions it as the go-to for institutions that need more than passive ETF access.
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Bar chart comparing AUM of top 5 crypto asset managers in 2026, Source: BeInCrypto
The 2026 crypto asset management race has a clear hierarchy.
BlackRock dominates on scale
Fidelity on institutional trust
Grayscale on history and breadt
Bitwise on product innovation, and
Galaxy on full-service infrastructure.
And then there is Morgan Stanley, which is not yet in the race but could reshape it entirely.
Morgan Stanley’s $160 Billion Wildcard Could Rewrite the Entire Leaderboard
The bank filed an amended S-1 for its spot Bitcoin ETF, MSBT, with a 0.14% fee that undercuts every existing competitor, including BlackRock’s 0.25%.
It would be the first spot Bitcoin ETF issued directly by a major U.S. bank rather than an asset manager. However, the ETF is just one piece.
Morgan Stanley has also applied for a national trust bank charter through a new subsidiary called Morgan Stanley Digital Trust. This would handle custody, trading, staking, and transfers of digital assets under federal oversight.
With $8 trillion in wealth management assets and over 16,000 advisors, even a modest 2% allocation would represent $160 billion in potential demand, roughly three times the size of IBIT.
Morgan Stanley Wealth Management oversees about $8 trillion in AUM and recommends 0–4% bitcoin allocation. A 2% allocation would represent $160 billion, ~3X the size of IBIT. $MSBT: Monster Bitcoin. https://t.co/TNYLYRXPiz
If all these pieces come together, Morgan Stanley would not just enter the crypto race. It would be building the entire track.
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“They’re not just offering exposure anymore, they’re building the full stack. BNY Mellon + Coinbase as dual custodians is smart redundancy,” one user highlighted.
With spot Bitcoin ETFs now past $128 billion in combined AUM, the question is no longer whether institutions will adopt crypto. It is the managers who will capture the next wave of capital.
House Democrats are convening a virtual caucus call tonight, April 6, to plot their next steps on the DHS shutdown, now 51 days old and the longest partial government shutdown in US history.
Summary
Punchbowl News reports House Democrats will hold a virtual caucus meeting tonight as the chamber returns from a two-week recess, with the DHS shutdown having been running since February 14
The shutdown broke the record for the longest in US history on March 29, surpassing the 43-day fall 2025 shutdown, and has left 480-plus TSA officers quitting, airport wait times exceeding four hours, and an estimated $2.5 billion in economic losses
The Senate passed a deal to fund DHS without ICE or CBP, but House Republicans rejected it last week, passing a 60-day stopgap that Senate Democrats called “dead on arrival.”
House Democrats are holding a virtual DHS shutdown caucus call tonight at the start of a critical week, according to Punchbowl News, as the chamber returns from a two-week Passover and Easter recess with no resolution in sight. The shutdown, which began February 14, crossed 51 days on April 6, making it the longest partial government shutdown in the country’s history. Democrats support the Senate-passed bill that funds most of DHS while excluding ICE and CBP, and leadership does not expect significant defections from that position.
The Senate passed a funding deal by voice vote in the early hours of last Friday after a marathon overnight session, threading the needle on Democrats’ core demand: funding the department without allocating money to ICE or the Border Patrol. Senate Majority Leader John Thune and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer both backed the measure. But the House rejected it.
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Speaker Mike Johnson instead put forward a 60-day stopgap that would fund all of DHS, including ICE and CBP. Senate Democrats immediately declared it dead. “Our position remains the same,” House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries said. “There is a bipartisan bill that every single senator, Democrats and Republicans, supported, that has the votes to pass today.”
The Real Costs on the Ground
The shutdown has produced measurable damage. The TSA callout rate is running five times above its normal level. More than 480 transportation security officers have quit since February, and some major airports are operating with 40 to 50 percent of their expected workforce absent on any given day. Wait times exceeding four and a half hours have been recorded at some of the country’s busiest terminals. Estimated economic losses now stand at $2.5 billion, according to Republican appropriators who cited the figure in a recent floor statement.
As crypto.news reported when the earlier DHS funding lapse rattled markets in February, the shutdown’s spillover into economic data releases and Federal Reserve signaling can create cascading uncertainty across financial markets well beyond the political standoff itself.
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How Both Sides Got Here
The shutdown traces back to the killing of a US citizen by a Customs and Border Protection agent in Minneapolis in January 2026. Senate Democrats announced they would no longer support the DHS funding bill, which funds CBP, demanding reforms to immigration enforcement as a condition. Trump has repeatedly refused to negotiate on reopening DHS unless Democrats back the SAVE America Act, his voter ID and proof-of-citizenship legislation, which is a non-starter for the minority.
Tonight’s caucus call will test how unified House Democrats remain heading into the second week of return from recess, and whether any moderates are ready to move. As crypto.news noted when the 43-day fall 2025 shutdown finally ended, the resolution of prolonged political standoffs tends to produce sharp market relief rallies across risk assets.
“Throughout it all, Senate Democrats stood united — no wavering, no backing down,” Schumer said Friday after the Senate vote.
Bitcoin (BTC) is trading within a bear flag pattern that projects a breakdown toward the sub-$50,000 area, or roughly 30% below current levels. However, Michael Saylor’s Strategy could spoil the bears’ plans.
BTC/USD three-day price chart. Source: TradingView
Key takeaways:
Bitcoin has avoided a bear flag breakdown for weeks as Strategy keeps buying BTC.
The setup now resembles Bitcoin’s 2018 bottom, when a bearish pattern failed and triggered a reversal.
Can Strategy’s BTC buying offset weak technicals?
Normally, a bear flag remains a bearish continuation pattern because there is not enough demand to overcome the broader downtrend.
In Bitcoin’s case, however, Strategy has been taking supply off the market faster than miners can replace it.
Since March 2, Strategy’s Bitcoin holdings have risen by 46,233 BTC, while miners have produced only about 16,200 BTC over the same period, meaning it has absorbed nearly thrice the new supply.
Much of that demand has come through STRC, Strategy’s variable-rate preferred stock. When STRC held near or above its $100 par value, Strategy kept issuing shares and accumulating BTC.
For instance, last week, Strategy raised $102.6 million through STRC sales to help fund a Bitcoin purchase worth over $330 million. BTC’s price has jumped by over 6.65% ever since.
STRC at-the-market sales analysis. Source: BitcoinQuant.CO
During March 9–13, STRC sales raised about $776 million, enough to buy over 11,000 BTC, while Bitcoin rose more than 7% even as the S&P 500 fell 1.6%. The same period saw BTC’s price rising over 10.5%.
Bear flag failure could set stage for rally to $110,000
Bitcoin remains inside a bear flag after a sharp decline, but the pattern would begin to fail if price breaks above the upper trendline near the mid-$70,000 area.
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That breakout would invalidate the immediate bearish continuation setup and shift focus to the bullish measured-move target near $108,000-$110,000.
BTC/USD weekly price chart. TradingView
A similar pattern failure occurred near Bitcoin’s 2018 bottom, when a rising wedge pattern led to a breakout instead of a breakdown.
Another factor supporting the upside case is Bitcoin’s position near its 200-week simple moving average (200-week SMA, the blue wave). In 2018, Bitcoin bottomed out near this level and rose by over 1,975% afterward.
As of 2026, the 200-week SMA has capped Bitcoin’s downside attempts successfully, raising the odds of a 2018-like bottom formation.
Some analysts anticipate BTC to rise to $400,000 if Strategy continues buying BTC at its current rate.
This article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph’s Editorial Policy and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice or recommendations. All investments and trades carry risk; readers are encouraged to conduct independent research before making any decisions. Cointelegraph makes no guarantees regarding the accuracy or completeness of the information presented, including forward-looking statements, and will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from reliance on this content.
An open-source AI job hunter built on Claude Code just auto-applied to hundreds of roles and actually landed a job, exposing why the real bottleneck is on-chain compute, not résumés.
Summary
An open-source AI agent built on Claude Code sent more than 700 targeted job applications and “actually got him hired,” according to X host 0xMarioNawfal.
The tool, Career-Ops, scans 45+ company career pages, scores roles, rewrites CVs in 14 “skill modes,” and batch-fires ATS-optimized PDFs while the user sleeps.
As AI agents flood hiring pipelines, tokenized computational performance on networks like Bittensor, Render and FET could become the settlement layer for automated job hunting.
A viral clip shared by 0xMarioNawfal claims that “SOMEONE BUILT AN AI JOB SEARCH SYSTEM FOR CLAUDE CODE THAT SENT 700+ APPLICATIONS AND ACTUALLY GOT HIM HIRED,” and that “THE JOB HUNT JUST GOT AUTOMATED.”
SOMEONE BUILT AN AI JOB SEARCH SYSTEM FOR CLAUDE CODE THAT SENT 700+ APPLICATIONS AND ACTUALLY GOT HIM HIRED.
The system in question, an open-source project called Career-Ops, is billed on GitHub as an “AI-powered job search system built on Claude Code” with 14 skill modes, a Go dashboard, PDF generation and batch processing, effectively turning the job hunt into an automated pipeline. A LinkedIn post summarizing the tool says it “scans multiple company career pages, rewrites your CV per job, and even fills application forms,” targeting firms like Anthropic, OpenAI and Stripe across 45-plus pre-configured employers.
Reaction on X underscores how fast AI agents are colonizing hiring. One user, Ofek Shaked, calls it “the future of job hunting,” adding that a simpler version “landed me 3 interviews” in a month. Another, Eugene Smarts, notes “that’s wild, imagine how much time that saves, job hunting is the worst,” while EchoWireDai warns that “If everyone automates applications… recruiters will just automate rejections.” Others highlight the quality constraint: investor Balvinder Kalon writes that “the real flex is getting the context right per company,” arguing that agents that “tailor each application to the job description, not just spray and pray” will be the ones that matter. Tools like Plushly, promoted in the same thread as a way to “auto apply to internships & jobs while you sleep,” show how quickly similar services are proliferating.
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As systems like Career-Ops scale, their bottleneck is not résumés; it is compute. The GitHub repo describes an architecture that continuously scans job portals, runs multi-step Claude Code prompts, generates ATS-optimized PDFs via Playwright, and monitors everything from a terminal dashboard, turning each job search into thousands of model calls and browser automations. According to Bloomberg, AI has already become “unavoidable on both sides of hiring,” with most résumés never reaching a human and interviews increasingly led by bots, a shift workforce experts say forces applicants to “learn how to navigate a job market reshaped by it.” In another explainer on the “new rules of finding a job in 2026,” Bloomberg warns that mass-applying with generic AI hurts candidates, but using AI well can help them strategically target roles and refine materials, exactly the niche Career-Ops tries to occupy.
That compute demand is already visible in crypto markets. An MEXC research note on AI tokens highlights how Bittensor (TAO), Render (RENDER) and the Artificial Superintelligence Alliance’s FET token have led recent rallies, with TAO up nearly 35% in a week and Render and FET gaining roughly 25–32%, as traders bet on “agentic AI systems, autonomous software capable of performing tasks without human input.” These networks explicitly sell tokenized access to GPU and machine-learning resources: Render routes GPU rendering jobs across a decentralized network of providers, while Bittensor’s design, as CCN explains, aims to reward participants who supply and route high-quality machine-learning models, with price forecasts suggesting TAO could trade between $748 and $2,750 in long-term scenarios. As job-hunting agents evolve from scraping and form-filling to full-stack career copilots, routing their ever-growing computational load through tokenized compute layers becomes a rational way to meter, price and trade that performance rather than leaving it buried inside closed platforms.
The cultural flip is not lost on users. Commenter Gagan Arora notes that “We went from ‘AI will take your job’ to ‘AI will find your next job’ in about 6 months,” calling it “the irony” that the tool workers feared is now “the best tool for getting hired.” Bloomberg’s coverage of AI-led interviews points in the same direction: a study summarized by the outlet found that AI interviewers, randomly assigned to 67,000 job seekers, could outperform human recruiters in surfacing strong candidates, raising questions about where humans still add value in the funnel. For now, Wall Street expects AI adoption to increase hiring rather than crush it, with a Bloomberg Intelligence survey cited by Bloomberg News indicating that roughly two-thirds of financial firms foresee staff numbers rising initially as they roll out AI.
For crypto, the signal is simple: if agents are going to swarm both sides of the labor market, the underlying compute will become an asset in its own right. In a previous crypto.news story on AI tokens, analysts argued that projects like Bittensor and Render sit “at the center of the AI infrastructure narrative,” capturing value as demand for model inference and GPU cycles grows. Another crypto.news story on agentic AI in DeFi predicted that autonomous agents would eventually need on-chain reputations, budgets and compute allowances, paid in liquid tokens that track underlying GPU or model performance rather than abstract governance rights. The Claude-powered job hunter that just landed its creator a new role is a glimpse of that future: an early, messy, very human example of why the next phase of job hunting may run not just on prompts and PDFs, but on tokenized computational performance that turns raw AI horsepower into a tradable, programmable resource.
The synthetic dollar protocol is moving beyond its crypto basis trade roots into institutional lending, real-world credit, and equity and commodity perpetuals.
Ethena Labs is finalizing its first direct lending agreements with Anchorage Digital, Maple Institutional, and Coinbase Asset Management as part of a sweeping plan to diversify the assets backing its USDe synthetic dollar.
Under the agreements, Ethena would lend stablecoins from USDe’s reserves to facilitate overcollateralized loans originated by those entities, with borrower collateral held in secured triparty custody. Each loan will operate within parameters set by the Ethena Risk Committee, including minimum overcollateralization ratios, concentration limits, automatic liquidation thresholds, and tenors designed to minimize liquidity risk during large USDe redemption events.
Ethena framed the move as a natural extension of the stablecoin lending it already does on DeFi protocols like Aave and Morpho, but for institutional counterparties with only high-quality, immediately liquid collateral such as BTC and ETH.
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Beyond the Basis Trade
The institutional lending push is one piece of a broader four-part diversification strategy Ethena outlined Monday, which also includes expanding real-world asset (RWA) exposure beyond tokenized Treasury bills, extending its delta-neutral framework into equity and commodity perpetuals, and exploring prime lending to trading firms.
The shift reflects how far USDe’s reserve composition has already moved. Perpetual futures positions, once the mainstay of USDe’s backing, now make up just 11% of the stablecoin’s reserves, with the rest allocated to stablecoin reserves and DeFi lending positions. Ethena recently proposed replacing its static 7-day unstaking cooldown with a dynamic model, arguing the fixed period no longer reflects the liquidity available to meet redemptions.
USDe’s circulating supply has contracted to approximately $5.9 billion from a peak above $14.6 billion before the October 10 crash that wiped more than $5 billion from its market cap.
Meanwhile, the protocol’s ENA token is up 9% over the past 24 hours, but has dropped 94% from its peak two years ago.
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ENA Chart
Equity and Commodity Perps
Perhaps the most novel element is Ethena’s plan to apply its basis trade methodology to equity and commodity perpetual futures — a market that has grown rapidly since Hyperliquid launched its HIP-3 framework in October 2025.
TradeXYZ Open Interest
HIP-3 open interest has surged from $70 million at launch to over $2 billion, driven by non-crypto pairs such as equities, commodities, and indices. Ethena noted that gold perpetual funding rates on Binance averaged 24.6% in March, presenting a clear basis opportunity for delta-neutral operators.
On the RWA side, Ethena said initial allocations will likely be limited to AAA-rated CLOs, which have no history of defaults, with potential expansion into investment-grade corporate bond funds and short-duration credit products.
This article was written with the assistance of AI workflows. All our stories are curated, edited and fact-checked by a human.
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