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Bitcoin Accumulation Trend Strengthens as Whales and Retail Add Holdings Amid Price Dip

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Brian Armstrong's Bold Prediction: AI Agents Will Soon Dominate Global Financial

TLDR:

  • Bitcoin whales accumulated over 61K BTC in one month despite price hovering near key support levels
  • Retail wallets matched whale accumulation pace, adding nearly 0.42% to holdings during market dip
  • Historical trends show rallies often start when whales buy while retail sells, not current pattern
  • Traders focus on $67K to $69K levels as Bitcoin remains range-bound with short-term setups forming

Bitcoin accumulation trend remains active as large and small holders continue adding to positions despite recent price weakness near the $68,000 level.

Data from Santiment shows coordinated accumulation across key wallet tiers, even as short-term price action stays range-bound.

This pattern reflects steady positioning during uncertainty, with market participants responding differently across timeframes while maintaining exposure to Bitcoin.

Whale and Retail Wallets Move in Parallel

Santiment data shows that wallets holding between 10 and 10,000 BTC added 61,568 BTC over the past month. This represents a 0.45% increase in holdings during a period of price retracement.

The accumulation occurred while Bitcoin briefly traded near $68,100, indicating sustained interest from larger market participants.

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At the same time, smaller wallets holding less than 0.01 BTC also increased their holdings. Retail participants recorded a 0.42% rise over the same timeframe.

This places both cohorts on nearly identical accumulation paths, which is not always typical in similar market conditions.

Santiment shared this data publicly, noting that both whales and retail continue to accumulate despite macroeconomic uncertainty.

The firm also pointed out that historical cycles often behave differently. In previous cycles, strong upward moves followed periods where large holders accumulated while retail reduced exposure.

The current structure, therefore, presents a mixed signal. While accumulation is ongoing, the alignment between retail and large wallets suggests a more complex market phase. Price movement remains constrained, with no clear breakout confirmed yet.

Short-Term Trading Levels Remain in Focus

Market participants are also watching short-term price levels closely. Trader Lennaert Snyder outlined a cautious approach in a recent update.

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He noted that Bitcoin is trading near the previous weekly low around $67,360, limiting late short opportunities.

According to his plan, short positions may only be considered after specific liquidity events. These include reactions near the $68,955 level or after addressing an imbalance around $86,399. Entry confirmation would rely on lower timeframe signals such as M15 engulfing patterns or structure breaks.

His commentary reflects a tactical approach to current price action. Rather than chasing moves, traders are waiting for confirmation signals before entering positions. This aligns with the broader range-bound structure seen in recent sessions.

At present, Bitcoin continues to trade within a narrow band, with both bullish and bearish setups dependent on key levels.

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While accumulation data provides context, short-term execution remains driven by technical confirmation. As a result, market participants are balancing long-term positioning with immediate price reactions.

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Crypto World

Retail FUD Sentiment Rises as Bitcoin Falls Below $70,000: What Are The Implications?

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After a brief improvement in sentiment, fear has returned to the crypto market and continues to dominate social discussions. Bitcoin has dropped back below $70,000, raising concerns among retail investors.

Although negative sentiment is spreading across social media, on-chain data paints a more complex picture of retail investors’ actual role.

Retail FUD Sentiment Surges. Will Bitcoin Recover?

Blockchain analytics platform Santiment recently recorded a spike in negative Bitcoin-related keywords on social media.

Terms such as “dip” and “crash” appear frequently in BTC discussions. This reflects a significantly elevated level of FUD (Fear, Uncertainty, Doubt) among retail investors.

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Santiment notes that extreme pessimism among retail investors often serves as a contrarian signal. When negativity becomes overwhelming, the market tends to recover as selling pressure nears exhaustion.

“Words like #dip, #pullback, #rejection, #crash, or #bloodbath, it’s usually a safe time to BUY,” Santiment stated.

Bitcoin Price vs Retail Sentiment. Source: Santiment.
Bitcoin Price vs Retail Sentiment. Source: Santiment.

Santiment’s chart illustrates this logic over the past year.

However, the picture goes beyond sentiment alone. A report from CryptoQuant reveals a concerning divergence between trading volume and the actual market share of retail investors.

Zizcrypto, an analyst at CryptoQuant, reported that the 30-day average small trade volume (0–$1,000) from retail stands at $96 million. This level aligns with the market bottom in early 2023.

Meanwhile, retail trading share (0–$10,000) has steadily declined since early 2023. It has dropped from over 2.4% to ~0.7% and has now stabilized.

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The divergence between trading volume and market share suggests that retail investors remain active, but their structural role in the market is no longer expanding.

Bitcoin Retail Volume Tracker. Source: CryptoQuant.
Bitcoin Retail Volume Tracker. Source: CryptoQuant.

“In this context, retail participation is primarily concentrated in short-term reactive flows rather than sustained engagement,” Zizcrypto stated.

Therefore, Santiment’s view may hold in the short term. However, it is difficult to use it as a basis for predicting a reversal similar to early 2023.

The latest analysis from BeInCrypto indicates that if Bitcoin closes a daily candle below $68,930, the price could continue to decline toward $65,550.

The post Retail FUD Sentiment Rises as Bitcoin Falls Below $70,000: What Are The Implications? appeared first on BeInCrypto.

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NYSE Owner ICE Pours Another $600 Million Into Polymarket

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NYSE Owner ICE Pours Another $600 Million Into Polymarket

Intercontinental Exchange has now deployed nearly $2 billion into the onchain prediction market, underscoring Wall Street’s growing conviction that event-based trading is here to stay.

Intercontinental Exchange, the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange, on Friday announced a new $600 million direct cash investment in Polymarket, completing the exchange operator’s structured investment arrangement with the prediction market platform.

The investment is part of a broader equity capital fundraise by Polymarket, according to a press release from ICE. The company also expects to purchase up to $40 million in Polymarket securities from existing holders, which would close out its obligations under the deal first announced in October 2025. The valuation of Friday’s investment is expected to be disclosed after Polymarket completes its fundraising.

ICE made an initial $1 billion direct investment in Polymarket at that time, in what was the largest single investment ever made in a prediction market company. That deal valued Polymarket at roughly $8 billion pre-investment and established ICE as a global distributor of Polymarket’s event-driven data.

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ICE’s interest in Polymarket extends beyond a passive equity stake. In February, ICE launched the Polymarket Signals and Sentiment Tool, a product that normalizes real-time and historical prediction market data into structured feeds for institutional traders. The tool packages Polymarket’s crowd-sourced probability assessments as market signals alongside traditional financial instruments.

Prediction Market Arms Race

The capital injection comes amid an unprecedented wave of institutional investment into prediction markets. Rival platform Kalshi raised approximately $1 billion at a $22 billion valuation earlier this month in a round led by Coatue Management. Polymarket is reportedly targeting a valuation of around $20 billion in its current round, according to The Wall Street Journal.

Prediction market monthly volumes have grown 130-fold since early 2024, making it one of the fastest-growing categories in finance. Open interest across platforms crossed $1 billion for the first time in February.

Regulatory Crosswinds

The investment arrives against a complex regulatory backdrop. The CFTC recently issued an advance notice of proposed rulemaking signaling its intent to build a comprehensive regulatory framework for prediction markets. Meanwhile, some lawmakers have introduced legislation that would block prediction markets from offering contracts on war and sports outcomes.

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At the state level, regulators continue to challenge the industry — Arizona’s attorney general recently filed criminal charges against Kalshi, alleging it operates an illegal gambling business in the state.

Still, institutional capital appears undeterred by the regulatory uncertainty. For ICE, the completion of its nearly $2 billion investment arrangement signals that one of the world’s largest market infrastructure operators views prediction markets not as a passing novelty but as a category that may eventually sit alongside equities, futures, and fixed income.

This article was written with the assistance of AI workflows. All our stories are curated, edited and fact-checked by a human.

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Bitcoin Slumps on Oil Fears as March Monthly Close Risks Deeper Sell-Off

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Bitcoin Slumps on Oil Fears as March Monthly Close Risks Deeper Sell-Off

Bitcoin grabbed downside liquidity as oil-supply pressure sent BTC price action below $66,500 to its lowest levels since March 9.

Bitcoin (BTC) neared three-week lows into Friday’s Wall Street open amid reports of Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz oil route.

Key points:

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  • Bitcoin reacts badly to fresh oil-supply threats ahead of Friday’s Wall Street open.

  • BTC price action hunts bid liquidity, continuing a week of low-time frame liquidity grabs.

  • Another bear flag threatens to send the market below $50,000, analysis says.

Bitcoin eyes range lows into monthly close

Data from TradingView showed BTC price action slipping below $66,500 ahead of the Wall Street open.

BTC/USD four-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

US stocks futures trended down and US WTI crude oil eyed $97 per barrel as geopolitical tensions refused to let up.

Data from CoinGlass showed BTC/USD eating into a ladder of bid liquidity extending down to $65,000, with a wall of asks keeping price pinned below the $70,000 mark.

BTC liquidation heatmap (screenshot). Source: CoinGlass

“$70-71k confirmed as resistance again,” trader Jelle wrote in analysis on X the day prior. 

“Still a bunch of liquidity built up below, generally not what you see at market bottoms. Expecting that liquidity to be taken out; sooner or later.”

BTC/USD chart. Source: Jelle/X

The latest market moves continued a theme of liquidity grabs seen throughout the week.

Continuing, crypto trader Michaël Van de Poppe said that he would not be “surprised” about further BTC price weakness into the March monthly candle close.

“Especially given that we’re currently anticipating a potential sweep of the lows,” he told X followers on the day. 

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“In that case, I remain to be interested to be buying in the lower $60K regions.”

BTC/USDT one-day chart. Source: Michaël Van de Poppe/X

BTC price gets $41,000 “measured target”

On longer time frames, market participants focused on a potential bearish support breakdown from Bitcoin’s second bear flag construction of 2026.

Related: US recession odds near 50%: Can Bitcoin copy 2020 comeback gains?

Previously occurring in January, the current bear flag has produced targets below $50,000.

“Bitcoin setting up for a rising wedge sell signal,” veteran trader Peter Brandt warned on Wednesday, joining those calls.

BTC/USDT one-day chart. Source: Peter Brandt/X

In his own X update, trader and educator Aaron Dishner continued the bearish tone around the flag structure.

“BTC is doing exactly what the bear flag setup called for. Price broke below the cloud yesterday on the daily, and today opened below it – currently down just 0.32% but that’s not a recovery, that’s hesitation,” he commented. 

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“The measured target from the January 14th high to the February 6th low, applied to the current flag structure, puts the downside at $41K.”