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Bitcoin Breaks Key Support Level

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Bitcoin Breaks Key Support Level

In our 21 January note, titled Bitcoin Falls Below $90k: Why Does It Matter?, we confirmed the relevance of a system of two trend channels and highlighted that the price was sitting at the lower boundary of a long-term ascending channel, which had previously acted as strong support in 2025.

In that analysis, we:
→ examined the fundamental drivers behind the price decline;
→ identified a series of bearish signals reflected in BTC/USD price swings;
→ pointed to persistent selling pressure and a growing risk of a support break.

As the Bitcoin price chart shows since then:
→ the lower boundary proved its role as support once more, triggering a rebound (marked by an arrow) on 25–26 January;
→ however, bullish momentum only carried the price up to the psychological $90k level, which acted as resistance on 28 January.

Following this, Bitcoin began to move lower. During the decline, the price successfully broke the key support level, with accelerating downward momentum in BTC/USD confirming that the support had lost its strength.

The lower boundary of the red channel may still act as support, while a potential break below November’s low could trigger panic. In the coming days, a local recovery toward the red channel’s median is possible, especially after signs of oversold conditions.

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Overall, the long-term ascending channel on the BTC/USD chart is losing relevance, while the descending trend is becoming increasingly dominant.

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Crypto World

Cap Airdrops $12 Million in Stablecoins to Early Users

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Cap Airdrops $12 Million in Stablecoins to Early Users


The stablecoin protocol ended its “Frontier” rewards phase with a dollar-denominated token airdrop.

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$55B in BTC Futures Positions Unwound In 30 Days: Will Bitcoin Recover?

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Coinbase, Cryptocurrencies, Business, Bitcoin Price, Markets, United States, Cryptocurrency Exchange, Derivatives, Financial Derivatives, Bitcoin Futures, Binance, Price Analysis

Bitcoin’s (BTC) struggle to hold above $70,000 carried on into Wednesday, raising concerns that the a drop into the $60,000 range could be the next stop. The sell-off was accompanied by futures market liquidations, a $55 billion drop in BTC open interest (OI) over the past 30 days, and rising Bitcoin inflows to exchanges.

The price weakness has analysts debating whether crypto-specific factors or larger macro-economic issues are the driving factor behind the sell-off and what it may mean for BTC’s short-term future.

Key takeaways: 

  • Around 744,000 BTC in open interest exited major exchanges in 30 days, equal to roughly $55 billion at current prices.

  • BTC futures cumulative volume delta (CVD) fell by $40 billion over the past 6-months.

  • Crypto exchange reserves have risen by 34,000 BTC since mid-January, increasing the near-term supply risk.

Coinbase, Cryptocurrencies, Business, Bitcoin Price, Markets, United States, Cryptocurrency Exchange, Derivatives, Financial Derivatives, Bitcoin Futures, Binance, Price Analysis
Bitcoin weekly chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

BTC open interest collapse points to large-scale deleveraging

CryptoQuant data noted that Bitcoin’s 30-day open interest change shows a sharp contraction across exchanges, reflecting widespread position closures, not just freshly opened short positions. 

On Binance, the net open interest fell by 276,869 BTC over the past month. Bybit recorded the largest decline at 330,828 BTC, while OKX saw a reduction of 136,732 BTC on Tuesday.

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In total, roughly 744,000 BTC worth of open positions were closed, equivalent to more than $55 billion at current prices. This drop in open positions coincided with Bitcoin’s drop below $75,000, indicating deleveraging as a driving factor, not just spot selling.

Coinbase, Cryptocurrencies, Business, Bitcoin Price, Markets, United States, Cryptocurrency Exchange, Derivatives, Financial Derivatives, Bitcoin Futures, Binance, Price Analysis
Bitcoin open interest 30D change. Source: CryptoQuant

Onchain analyst Boris highlighted that the cumulative volume delta (CVD) data shows market sell orders continue to dominate, particularly on Binance, where derivatives CVD sits near -$38 billion over the past six months.

Other exchanges show varying dynamics: Bybit’s CVD flattened near $100 million after a sharp December liquidation wave, while HTX stabilized at -$200 million in CVD as the price consolidates near $74,000.

Related: Bitcoin bounces to $76K, but onchain and technical data signal deeper downside

Increased exchange flows add pressure as analysts watch key levels

Meanwhile, Bitcoin inflows to exchanges surged in January, totaling roughly 756,000 BTC, led by Binance and Coinbase. Since early February, inflows have exceeded 137,000 BTC, underscoring traders’ repositioning and not necessarily leaving the market.

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On the supply side, analyst Axel Adler Jr. noted that exchange reserves have risen from 2.718 million BTC to 2.752 million BTC since Jan. 19. The analyst warned that continued growth above 2.76 million BTC could increase selling pressure. The analyst believed that a complete capitulation is yet to take place, which may happen at lower price levels.

Coinbase, Cryptocurrencies, Business, Bitcoin Price, Markets, United States, Cryptocurrency Exchange, Derivatives, Financial Derivatives, Bitcoin Futures, Binance, Price Analysis
Bitcoin exchange reserves. Source: CryptoQuant

Market analyst Scient said Bitcoin is unlikely to form a bottom in a single day or week. Durable market bottoms may develop through two to three months of consolidation near the major support zones, with higher time frame indicators. Scient noted that whether this structure forms in the high $60,000 range or the low $50,000 level remains unclear.

Bitcoin Trader Mark Cullen continues to see potential downside toward $50,000 in a broader macro scenario, but expects a short-term reversion toward the local point of control ($89,000 to $86,000) after BTC swept weekly lows below $74,000 on Tuesday. 

Coinbase, Cryptocurrencies, Business, Bitcoin Price, Markets, United States, Cryptocurrency Exchange, Derivatives, Financial Derivatives, Bitcoin Futures, Binance, Price Analysis
Mark Cullen’s LTF BTC analysis. Source: X

Related: Bitcoin’s $68K trend line seen as potential BTC price floor: Traders