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Bitcoin breaks key support level as Glassnode warns of further price breakdown

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Bitcoin breaks key support level as Glassnode warns of further price breakdown

U.S. president Donald Trump’s surprise nomination of former Fed governor Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve chair boosted the dollar, unwound the precious metals rally, and is bringing bitcoin below a key support level.

Onchain data shared by Glassnode shows bitcoin was consolidating just above key structural support around $83.4K, the lower bound of its short-term holder cost basis model.

A breakdown below that zone could open the door to a deeper slide toward $80.7K, the so-called True Market Mean.

That breakdown is occurring. Over the past 7-day period bitcoin lost more than 9.2% of its value and now trades at $81,200.

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The broader market, measured via the CoinDesk 20 (CD20) index, lost 12.4% of its value over that period. That has meant the Crypto Fear & Greed Index dropped to “extreme fear” over the week.

Glassnode’s report notes that short-term holder supply held at a loss with BTC above that level remained at 19.5%, well below the 55% capitulation threshold, suggesting some resilience despite downside pressure. However, buyer conviction is being tested as price drifts lower.

On the derivatives side, funding rates remain muted, pointing to cautious speculative appetite. Options markets are pricing in greater demand for downside protection, with dealer gamma flipping negative below $90K. That increases the risk of volatility spikes if support breaks.

Taken together, the data paints a picture of a fragile but not yet broken market. Liquidity remains the key variable.

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The crypto market may currently be gripped by fear, but that could be a good signal.

According to crypto analytics platform Santiment, sentiment across various cryptocurrency communities has plunged to extreme lows, levels that have historically preceded price recoveries.

In a report, Santiment highlighted the rise in bearish commentary on social media as a rare bright spot in an otherwise downbeat environment.

“While network fundamentals are stagnant, crowd sentiment has hit extreme negativity levels,” the firm wrote. “Historically, this excessive bearishness is a strong contrarian indicator that a local bottom could be near.”

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While prices have been dropping throughout the last few months, long-term bitcoin holders are selling at the fastest pace since August. Crypto prices fell over the week, seemingly over the U.S. dollar’s decline reversing.

Some industry observers say the current mood may be short-lived, however.

Bitwise’s CIO Matt Hougan had recently joined CoinDesk’s Markets Outlook, where he said crypto is in the late stages of a bear-market bottom. Historically, crypto markets have tended to move in the opposite direction of the crowd, the report points out.

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Crypto World

Bitcoin’s Quantum Migration May Reveal Number of Satoshi Coins: Adam Back

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Bitcoin's Quantum Migration May Reveal Number of Satoshi Coins: Adam Back

Blockstream CEO Adam Back said Thursday that a future post-quantum migration of Bitcoin could help clarify how many coins linked to Satoshi Nakamoto remain accessible, because any owner wanting to protect vulnerable holdings would need to move them to a new address format.

Speaking at Paris Blockchain Week, Back said such a migration would likely give users ample time to move funds and argued that coins left unmoved after that process could reasonably be treated as lost.

“This migration to post-quantum address format may tell us how many of those coins [Satoshi] still has,” said Back, adding that the pseudonymous creator has an estimated 500,000 to 1 million Bitcoin (BTC).

Satoshi’s Bitcoin stash has ignited heated debate among Bitcoin holders concerned by the quantum computing threat. On Wednesday, Jameson Lopp and five co-authors published a Bitcoin Improvement Proposal aimed at restricting the future movement of coins held in quantum-vulnerable address formats, including older coins whose public keys have already been exposed.

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Adam Back, keynote speech at Paris Blockchain Week in 2026. Source: Cointelegraph

Blockchain data platform Arkham estimates that Nakamoto-linked wallets hold 1.09 million Bitcoin, currently valued at $81.6 billion.

Related: Bernstein says Bitcoin market already priced in quantum risk

Back sees long runway on quantum

Back said Bitcoin developers and holders still have substantial time to prepare, arguing that a quantum breakthrough capable of threatening Bitcoin signatures is at least 20 years away.

He argued that today’s quantum computers are “less powerful than a $5 calculator” and that some of their issues become more pressing as these systems scale, such as their energy consumption.

Back said that runway should give developers and users ample time to develop a post-quantum path and migrate to a new quantum-resistant standard underpinned by hash-based signatures.

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Hash-based signature schemes for Bitcoin, research paper. Source: Blockstream Research

In December 2025, Back’s Blockstream Research released a paper proposing a hash-based signature scheme that offers a “promising path for securing Bitcoin in a post-quantum world,” as a quantum-safe replacement for the ECDSA and Schnorr signatures. Under the proposal, security would rely solely on hash function assumptions, similar to the ones currently used in Bitcoin’s network design.

The Elliptic Curve Digital Signature Algorithm (ECDSA) uses elliptic-curve cryptography to verify the authenticity and integrity of a message. Schnorr signatures are another signature scheme praised for enhancing privacy and reducing data size, due to their ability to combine multiple signatures into one.

Magazine: Bitcoin vs. the quantum computer threat — Timeline and solutions (2025–2035)