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Bitcoin Clears 100-Day MA as MSTR Surges 12%

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Analysts warn of $60K retest

Bitcoin technical analysis turned decisively bullish Thursday as BTC cleared $77,000 and climbed above its 100-day moving average for the first time since the early February selloff, triggering a 12%+ surge in Strategy shares as the company’s 780,897-BTC treasury gained roughly $1.6 billion in value in a single session.

Summary

  • BTC absorbed $450 million in sell orders stacked between $75,900 and $76,300, breaking through resistance that has rejected price three times over the prior two months.
  • Strategy jumped over 12% on the BTC move, extending a run since the company’s April 13 disclosure that it purchased 13,927 BTC for $1 billion at $71,902 per coin using proceeds from its STRC preferred stock ATM program.
  • Derivatives data show a 140% jump in liquidations alongside rising open interest, signaling forced short covering rather than primarily new long buying, consistent with the squeeze thesis K33 Research had flagged.

Bitcoin (BTC) technical analysis produced a breakout signal Thursday as BTC cleared $77,000 and reclaimed its 100-day moving average, a threshold that has acted as resistance since the early February decline from above $90,000. The move marks BTC’s first decisive close above $77,000 since that selloff and represents the resolution, at least temporarily, of the ten-week $60K-$75K consolidation range that had defined the chart.

Strategy, the largest publicly traded corporate Bitcoin holder, surged over 12% in Thursday trading. The company holds 780,897 BTC acquired for approximately $59.02 billion at an average cost of $75,577 per coin.

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The $76,000 level had capped four separate BTC rally attempts in 2026 before today. CoinGlass data showed $450 million in sell orders stacked between $75,900 and $76,300 as of Thursday morning, placed by traders either shorting the range high or defending against a short squeeze with liquidation risk overhead. Price chipped through the wall across the morning session, triggering a cascade as liquidation levels were breached.

Derivatives data confirmed the mechanical nature of the move: liquidations jumped 140% compared to recent sessions, and open interest continued to rise throughout the advance. Rising open interest alongside rising liquidations indicates forced short covering rather than new speculative buying, the exact setup K33 Research’s Vetle Lunde described last week when he flagged 46 consecutive days of negative funding as an “attractive entry” for contrarians.

Why Strategy Moved So Sharply

Strategy’s 12%+ gain amplified BTC’s move through its leveraged capital structure. The company holds 780,897 BTC worth roughly $1.6 billion more at $77,000 than at $74,000, with every dollar of BTC appreciation flowing directly through to the balance sheet under FASB’s fair-value accounting rules now governing digital assets.

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On April 13, Strategy disclosed its latest purchase: 13,927 BTC for approximately $1 billion, funded entirely through sales of its STRC preferred shares. The company’s STRC volume has surged to roughly 20% of total MSTR trading volume from essentially zero earlier in 2026, reflecting a shift in how institutional capital is accessing the company’s Bitcoin exposure.

The company’s average cost basis of $75,577 per BTC means Thursday’s move above $77,000 pushed its entire treasury back into a small unrealized gain for the first time since early April, a shift that reduces near-term balance sheet pressure and may support continued STRC issuance.

Bitcoin reclaiming the 100-day moving average is a structural signal that technical traders track carefully. A sustained daily close above it would target $80,000 as the next resistance, with the 200-day SMA at $87,519 as the larger trend line that needs to be reclaimed for a full trend reversal. The BTC ETF inflow picture from the past week, which showed $597.5 million in two-day institutional buying, suggests demand is present to absorb further supply if the macro backdrop cooperates.

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Crypto World

French Finance Minister Backs Euro-Pegged Stablecoins in Response to US

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French Finance Minister Backs Euro-Pegged Stablecoins in Response to US

Roland Lescure, France’s finance minister, backed an initiative by European banks to launch a euro-pegged stablecoin in 2026 to compete with US dollar-backed tokens, which currently dominate the market.

According to a Friday Reuters report, Lescure supported the euro-pegged Qivalis stablecoin plan launched in September 2025 by EU banks, including Dutch lender ING and Italy’s UniCredit.

The goal of the banks was to create a stablecoin in compliance with the EU’s Markets in Crypto Assets (MiCA) regulatory framework; the MiCA-compliant euro stablecoin is expected to be launched in the second half of 2026.

“That is ‌what ⁠we need, and that is what we want,” said Lescure, according to Reuters. “I also strongly encourage banks to further explore the launch of tokenized deposits.”

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EU banks are collaborating to create an alternative to the US-dominated stablecoin market, led by Tether’s USDt (USDT) and Circle’s USDC (USDC). As of Friday, USDT had a market capitalization of about $186 billion, according to CoinMarketCap.

Related: SocGen brings MiCA-compliant USDCV dollar stablecoin to MetaMask

Lescure, who reportedly made the comments in a pre-recorded message, said the relatively small volume of euro-pegged stablecoins compared to dollar-pegged ​ones was “not satisfactory.”

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Speaking at the World Economic Forum in January, Banque de France Governor François Villeroy de Galhau said that tokenization and stablecoins were likely to be “the name of the game” in 2026, highlighting benefits of blockchain infrastructure for finance.

However, he opposed interest-bearing stablecoins, claiming that they could destabilize financial systems, a criticism shared by several EU and US policy makers, as well as central bank officials, as stablecoin yield continues to be a contentious regulatory topic.

Stablecoin yield is still an issue in US market structure talks

As of Friday, lawmakers in the US Senate had not announced any compromise that would allow a crypto market structure bill to move closer to a vote.

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The CLARITY Act, a crypto market structure bill that passed in the US House of Representatives in July, has been stalled amid disagreements on how to address stablecoin yield, tokenized equities, ethics and other concerns.

Magazine: Will the CLARITY Act be good — or bad — for DeFi?