Crypto World
Bitcoin Down 49.53% From ATH: How Far Can BTC Fall Before This Bear Market Finds a Bottom?
TLDR:
- Bitcoin has fallen 49.53% from its October 6, 2025 ATH, wiping out roughly $1.2 trillion in total market cap.
- The BPDA% metric sits deep below its one-year average, signaling extreme stress, capitulation, and widespread panic selling.
- Bitcoin’s Realized Price near $54,600 marks a historically significant accumulation zone during past bear market cycles.
- The $49,000 to $42,000 range holds the highest probability of bear exhaustion and may signal the start of the next cycle.
Bitcoin’s 49.53% decline from its all-time high has wiped out roughly $1.2 trillion in market value. The drop has renewed serious debate about how far this bear market can extend.
On October 6, 2025, Bitcoin’s market cap sat at $2.4891 trillion. Today, it has fallen to $1.2918 trillion. With extreme fear gripping the market and macro pressures mounting, analysts are now mapping the levels where Bitcoin could finally find its floor.
On-Chain Data Points to Where Bitcoin’s Decline May Stall
The BTC Price Drawdown Analysis (BPDA%) is one metric drawing close attention right now. When this reading falls far below its one-year average, it historically marks phases of stress, capitulation, and panic. That is exactly where it stands at this moment.
Crypto analyst GugaOnChain flagged this condition, noting that the current drawdown places Bitcoin in extreme stress territory.
Macro factors are adding pressure, particularly the 10% global tariffs announced by the Trump administration. These developments have kept fear elevated across broader risk markets.
Source: Cryptoquant
When BPDA% sits near its one-year average, the market is considered to be within a normal historical pattern. A reading well above that average typically signals recovery or relative stability. Neither condition applies today, which is why analysts continue watching lower levels carefully.
The data, therefore, suggests the correction may not be over. However, history also shows that readings this deep tend to precede meaningful accumulation phases. The question now is which price level triggers that shift.
Four Price Levels That Could Determine How Low Bitcoin Goes
GugaOnChain identified four support zones that may define Bitcoin’s downside from here. The $60,000 level is the nearest, though it is considered less likely to hold as a durable bottom given current momentum.
Below that, Bitcoin’s Realized Price near $54,600 becomes relevant. This metric reflects the average price at which all coins last moved on-chain. Historically, the Realized Price has acted as a magnet for accumulation activity during bear markets.
Further down, the $49,000 region carries the highest probability of bear exhaustion based on the analysis. This zone has previously drawn in long-term holders who view deep corrections as entry opportunities rather than reasons to exit.
The $42,000 level represents the most extreme scenario outlined in the data. While it would place a large portion of the market in unrealized loss, GugaOnChain describes it as an excellent area for initial long-term entries.
If on-chain metrics confirm seller exhaustion at any of these levels, the range between $49,000 and $42,000 could mark not just the bottom of this bear market, but the foundation for Bitcoin’s next major cycle.
The court ordered Google and Apple to restrict Polymarket after investigators flagged unregulated betting and missing identity checks across Argentina.
Argentina has moved to restrict access to the prediction market platform Polymarket after a Buenos Aires court determined it was operating as an unauthorized betting service.
In a ruling issued by Judge Susana Parada, authorities ordered a country-wide block on the website and instructed Google and Apple to remove or limit access to its application on mobile devices.
No License, No Limits
The measure comes after an investigation by Prosecutor Juan Rozas, who oversees gambling-related cases in the city. As part of the enforcement, the telecom regulator Ente Nacional de Comunicaciones (ENACOM) has been directed to ensure internet service providers prevent access to the platform within the country.
The probe concluded that Polymarket allowed users to trade on the outcomes of real-world events without complying with gambling regulations. Prosecutors said accounts could be created rapidly without identity or age checks, which ended up enabling unrestricted participation, including by minors.
They further stated that the platform facilitated payments via cryptocurrencies and credit cards without applying the controls required for regulated betting operations. The case was triggered by a complaint from the Lotería de la Ciudad de Buenos Aires, which alleged that the platform was offering services locally without authorization. Additional verification conducted with the Asociación de Loterías Estatales de Argentina found no record of Polymarket holding a licence in any jurisdiction.
The court’s decision surfaced publicly during a broader controversy linked to Argentina’s inflation data. Shortly before the release of February figures by the national statistics agency INDEC, market probabilities on international prediction platforms moved toward a higher reading.
While analysts had largely estimated inflation between 2.6% and 2.8%, the official figure came in at 2.9%. Activity on Polymarket tied to that data point saw trading volumes rise to roughly $91,000 in the minutes preceding publication, which led some observers to question whether the data had circulated in advance.
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The development adds to a growing trend of regulatory crackdowns on prediction market services, with companies like Polymarket and Kalshi increasingly coming under legal or supervisory pressure in a range of jurisdictions, among them France, Germany, Italy, Australia, Singapore, Portugal, Hungary, Thailand, and the Netherlands.
Polymarket Intelligence Misuse
Earlier this year, Israeli authorities formally charged an IDF reservist and a civilian over alleged misuse of classified military intelligence to gain an advantage on the prediction platform. A joint probe by the Defense Ministry, Shin Bet, and national police found that sensitive operational knowledge may have been leveraged to place high-confidence bets on future military developments.
Prosecutors filed serious charges, including security violations, bribery, and obstruction of justice, while a court-imposed gag order limits further disclosures.
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The crypto rally is took a pause on Tuesday ahead of Wednesday’s Federal Reserve decision.
After briefly topping $76,000 overnight, bitcoin pulled back to around $74,000 during the U.S. session, modestly higher over the past 24 hours.
Crypto stocks mostly booked modest gains, with stablecoin issuer Circle (CRCL), bitcoin miner Bitdeer (BTDR) standing out advancing 5% and 12%, respectively. The Nasdaq closed with a 0.5% gain and the S&P 500 rose 0.25%.
It’s almost universally expected that the Fed will leave benchmark interest rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% tomorrow. But given rapidly rising oil prices and their possible effect on inflation thanks to the war in Iran, the focus shifts to Jerome Powell’s messaging and policymakers’ outlook for future rates.
Bitfinex analysts said the key question is whether policymakers still signal rate cuts in 2026 or are moving towards the idea of no further monetary ease. A more hawkish outcome could weigh on risk assets by strengthening the dollar, they said.
Powell’s take on the recent oil advance will also be in focus. Treating it as a temporary shock would support sentiment, while a more stagflationary view could limit the Fed’s flexibility.
Also coming on Wedesday is the February Producer Price Index report. Tyically not having nearly the weight of the Consumer Price Index, the PPI will be a bit more closely followed given its timing ahead of the Fed meeting.
“A hot PPI number followed by a hawkish FOMC would be the most damaging combination for equities and risk assets,” the Bitfinex team continued.
That backdrop is already showing up in market expectations toward a higher-for-longer rate path, according to Vetle Lunde, head of research at K33.
The probability of rates staying unchanged through the July meeting has jumped to over 60% from 22% last month, with potential cuts now pushed further into late 2026, he said in a Tuesday note.
For now, price action will likely remain muted. “We expect the $74,000–$76,000 region to cap price momentarily,” Bitfinex analysts concluded.
Crypto World
Next Pepe Coin: Why Investors Are Choosing Pepeto Over AlphaPepe and Other Presales as Exchange Listings Approach
Pepeto is emerging as the strongest point of interest among presale buyers in 2026 as investors become more selective about where they place capital. In a market still full of empty promises and roadmap heavy launches, Pepeto is gaining traction by offering something most meme coins cannot: three real products close to launch, the PEPE cofounder, and $8.1 million in presale funding according to CoinDesk.
That distinction is becoming increasingly important. Early stage crypto buyers are paying closer attention to whether a project has real infrastructure, verified audits, and a team with a track record. On that basis, Pepeto is starting to stand apart from every other presale in the market, including projects like AlphaPepe according to Cointelegraph.
Why Pepeto is resonating more strongly with investors
1. Pepeto
A major part of Pepeto’s appeal is that it does not ask buyers to trust a team with no track record. The PEPE cofounder who built PEPE Coin is behind this project, which gives participants real confidence in what they are buying. The difference may sound minor at first, but it changes the entire investment case. Instead of putting money into a meme coin with nothing behind it, buyers get three real products approaching launch and a SolidProof audited contract.
That makes Pepeto feel more like a real investment and less like a gamble, even though it still sits firmly in the high upside segment of the market where the next Dogecoin will come from. Investors are also responding to the fact that Pepeto has built 196% APY staking directly into the presale phase, compressing supply every single day.
Rather than limiting the experience to buying and waiting, Pepeto has created an ecosystem where PepetoSwap, Pepeto Bridge, and Pepeto Exchange will keep holders engaged long after listings begin.
That makes the ecosystem easier to believe in and gives the presale more momentum than a typical meme coin launch. One reason Pepeto is drawing more attention than competing presales is that $8.1 million raised and three products close to launch present it as an active ecosystem, not a static fundraise.
The broader structure, including PepetoSwap, Pepeto Bridge, Pepeto Exchange, and 196% APY staking, gives buyers the impression that this token is attached to a growing ecosystem instead of a one dimensional meme coin pump.
2. AlphaPepe
AlphaPepe offers instant token delivery and a participation model that keeps buyers engaged after the initial purchase. The project includes features like reward claims and rank progression that give the presale more activity than a typical token sale page.
For investors who want immediate visibility over their position, AlphaPepe delivers on that front. But AlphaPepe does not have the infrastructure depth that Pepeto brings with three announced products, a SolidProof audit, and the PEPE cofounder behind the entire build.
3. Kaspa
Kaspa holds at $0.035 as of March 17 with a loyal community and consistent on chain transaction volumes that reflect real usage. But analysts project a potential dip toward $0.027 by mid April before any meaningful recovery comes through. 
The fully diluted valuation already bakes in significant adoption, and the returns from here are measured in modest single or low double digit percentages. For investors looking for the next Shiba Inu level entry, Pepeto at six zeros offers a fundamentally different opportunity category with far more upside potential.
Do not be the person who watches from the sidelines
Pepeto is gaining an edge over every other presale because it offers something no other meme coin has: three real products, the PEPE cofounder, and $8.1 million in proof that investors believe in it. The people who hesitated on DOGE at fractions of a penny and SHIB before it exploded know exactly what it feels like to miss a life changing entry.
That regret is what drives smart investors to act early on projects like Pepeto. They can see the $8.1 million raised, the three products approaching launch, and the SolidProof audit, and they know this is the kind of setup that creates the next wave of crypto millionaires.
Do not be the person who watches Pepeto list on exchanges and realizes they should have bought when it was still at six zeros. Visit the Pepeto official website and enter the presale today.
Click To Visit Pepeto Website To Enter The Presale
FAQs
Why are investors choosing Pepeto over other presales?
Three products close to launch, the PEPE cofounder, SolidProof audit, and $8.1M raised set it apart.
What makes Pepeto the next Pepe coin?
The same cofounder who built PEPE Coin is behind Pepeto, with real infrastructure this time.
Could Pepeto have stronger upside than rival presales?
At $0.000000186 with three products approaching launch, Pepeto has the steepest trajectory in the presale market.
The post Next Pepe Coin: Why Investors Are Choosing Pepeto Over AlphaPepe and Other Presales as Exchange Listings Approach appeared first on Blockonomi.
Arizona Attorney General Kris Mayes announced that her office filed gambling and related criminal charges against the companies behind prediction markets platform Kalshi.
In a Tuesday notice, Mayes said that the charges alleged that Kalshi operated an “illegal gambling business in Arizona without a license” and offered election wagering, in violation of state laws. Arizona authorities alleged that Kalshi’s prediction markets platform allowed state residents to bet on event contracts related to sports and state and federal elections.
“Kalshi may brand itself as a ‘prediction market,’ but what it’s actually doing is running an illegal gambling operation and taking bets on Arizona elections, both of which violate Arizona law,” said Mayes. “No company gets to decide for itself which laws to follow.”
According to the AG’s office, the charges followed Kalshi filing its own lawsuit against Arizona “preemptively in an attempt to avoid accountability under Arizona law.” State authorities have filed similar lawsuits against the companies of prediction market platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi.
Related: Kalshi suffers court loss in Ohio over sports betting lawsuit
“Sadly, a state can file criminal charges on paper-thin arguments,” a Kalshi spokesperson told Cointelegraph. “States like Arizona want to individually regulate a nationwide financial exchange, and are trying every trick in the book to do it. As other courts have recognized and the CFTC affirms, Kalshi is subject to federal jurisdiction. It’s different from what sportsbooks and casinos offer their customers, and it should not be overseen by a patchwork of inconsistent state laws.”
Last week, an Ohio judge denied Kalshi’s request for a preliminary injunction in a similar case against state authorities, saying that the company had failed to show that the sports event contracts available on the platform were subject to the “exclusive jurisdiction” of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). However, in February, a federal judge in Tennessee blocked state authorities from enforcing gambling laws against Kalshi.
CFTC chair backs “exclusive authority” over prediction markets
Now the sole commissioner on the CFTC since acting chair Caroline Pham stepped down in December, Chair Michael Selig has publicly said that the federal regulator would defend prediction market platforms from state-level lawsuits.
Last week, Selig opened a proposed rule up to public comment on how the Commodity Exchange Act would apply to prediction markets, potentially changing how the agency approaches regulation and enforcement in the future.
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Tether, issuer of the world’s largest stablecoin by market cap, USDT, has released a new AI training framework that it says allows large language models to be fine-tuned on consumer hardware, including smartphones and non-Nvidia GPUs.
According to Tuesday’s announcement, the system, part of its QVAC platform, uses Microsoft’s BitNet architecture and LoRA techniques to reduce memory and compute requirements, potentially lowering the cost and hardware barriers to developing AI models.
The framework supports cross-platform training and inference across a range of chips, including AMD, Intel and Apple Silicon, as well as mobile GPUs from Qualcomm and Apple.
Tether said its engineers were able to fine-tune models with up to 1 billion parameters on smartphones in under two hours, and smaller models in minutes, with support extending to models as large as 13 billion parameters on mobile devices.
Built on BitNet, a 1-bit model architecture, the framework can cut VRAM requirements by up to 77.8% compared with similar 16-bit models, according to the company, allowing larger models to run on limited hardware. It also enables LoRA fine-tuning on non-Nvidia hardware for 1-bit models, expanding support beyond the GPUs typically used for AI training.
The company said the performance gains extend to inference, with mobile GPUs running BitNet models several times faster than CPUs. It also pointed to use cases such as on-device training and federated learning, where models can be updated across distributed devices without sending data to centralized servers, potentially reducing reliance on cloud infrastructure.
Related: Messari’s new CEO is doubling down on AI as firm cuts staff
Crypto companies expand into AI, from mining infrastructure to autonomous agents
Tether’s move into AI infrastructure comes as crypto companies have been expanding into compute and machine learning, with activity accelerating across Bitcoin mining and the rise of AI agents.
In September, Google took a 5.4% stake in Cipher Mining as part of a $3 billion, 10-year deal tied to AI data center capacity. In December, Bitcoin miner IREN said it planned to raise about $3.6 billion to fund AI infrastructure.
The trend has continued into 2026. In February, HIVE Digital Technologies reported record revenue of $93.1 million, fueled by growth in its AI and high-performance computing (HPC) operations, while Core Scientific secured a $500 million loan facility from Morgan Stanley in March, with the option to expand it to $1 billion.
The mining sector’s pivot to AI and HPC comes as AI agents, autonomous programs that can transact, interact with services and execute tasks, are gaining momentum across the crypto sector.
In October, Coinbase introduced wallet infrastructure enabling AI agents to conduct onchain transactions. Last month, Alchemy launched a system allowing agents to access blockchain data services using USDC on Base. Also in February, Pantera and Franklin Templeton joined Arena, a platform from Sentient for testing enterprise AI agents.
On Tuesday, World, the identity network co-founded by OpenAI’s Sam Altman, launched AgentKit, a toolkit that allows AI agents to verify they are linked to a unique human using World ID capabilities while making payments via the x402 micropayments protocol.
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GSR is buying its way into the underwriting layer of crypto, spending 57 million dollars to turn itself from a market maker into a full‑stack capital markets and treasury platform for token issuers.
Summary
- GSR is acquiring Autonomous and Architech for a combined 57 million dollars, aiming to control the full lifecycle of digital asset projects from token design and launch to governance, liquidity and secondary‑market trading under one coordinated umbrella.
- Autonomous will keep operating independently to help teams launch and run tokenized organizations, while Architech is being folded into GSR’s advisory arm to anchor its institutional consulting, filling long‑standing gaps between issuance, governance models, listings and treasury design.
- A core focus of the new platform is treasury management, with GSR pitching liquidity planning, risk management and derivatives‑based hedging so projects behave more like mid‑market corporates or funds and less like 2021‑era DAOs that hoarded volatile treasuries and blew up in drawdowns.
Crypto market maker GSR is moving aggressively up the value chain, spending $57 million to acquire Autonomous and Architech in a bid to become a full‑lifecycle capital markets and fund management platform for digital assets. The deal is designed to give GSR direct exposure to everything from token design and launch to liquidity, governance, financing and secondary‑market trading under a single, coordinated umbrella.
According to the announcement cited by ChainCatcher, Autonomous will continue to operate independently, focused on helping teams launch and operate tokenized organizations. Architech, by contrast, will be folded into GSR’s digital asset advisory arm and positioned as a core component of its institutional consulting business. Together, the two acquisitions are meant to plug long‑standing gaps in crypto’s deal infrastructure, where token issuance, governance models, listing strategy and treasury design are often handled by different providers with misaligned incentives.
GSR’s pitch is blunt: crypto projects have grown in size and complexity, but the service stack around them is still fragmented and reactive. By pulling issuance support, advisory, market making, derivatives and asset management into a single framework, the firm wants to offer what it calls a “one‑stop capital market service” for digital assets. That includes help on structuring tokenomics, planning exchange liquidity, sequencing listings, and building governance that institutional allocators can live with over a full cycle.
A key focus of the combined platform will be treasury management for crypto projects. GSR says it intends to offer tools for liquidity planning, cash‑flow forecasting, risk management and asset allocation, pushing projects away from passive token hoarding and toward more diversified, yield‑aware portfolios. In practice, that means using GSR’s existing trading and derivatives capabilities to hedge volatility, manage stablecoin buckets, and smooth runway across market regimes.
Strategically, the move is a bet that the next wave of serious crypto issuers will look and behave more like mid‑market corporates or funds than like 2021‑era degen DAOs. Those issuers want integrated counterparties that can handle launch, liquidity and ongoing risk management without forcing them to stitch together five different vendors. If GSR can execute, it will not just be making markets for tokens; it will be designing, launching and effectively underwriting them across their entire lifecycle. For a space still plagued by ad‑hoc token launches and treasury blow‑ups, that kind of vertical integration is both an obvious opportunity—and a concentration of power that regulators and rival service providers will watch closely.
The Federal Reserve has little choice but to stay on the sidelines this week as it navigates a mix of complicated and conflicting forces playing out in the U.S. economy.
Markets are pricing in a near-zero chance that the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee will be cutting at this meeting — or any other in the near future. In fact, futures pricing suggests policymakers won’t consider easing until at least September, more likely October, and even then just a single cut this year.
For Wednesday’s decision, Chair Jerome Powell and his colleagues have to wrestle with the Iran war, fears of an inflation spike and mixed signals from the labor market. The combination of factors all but assures the Fed will stand pat, keeping its key interest rate targeted between 3.5%-3.75%. Updates to economic and rate projections also aren’t expected to show major changes.
“The decision itself is almost guaranteed – a rate hold at the March meeting. But any hints Chair Powell might drop about the path of future interest rates will be key,” said BeiChen Lin, senior investment strategist at Russell Investments. “Broadly speaking, the U.S. economy is still on solid footing. This means however that the bar for further rate cuts in the U.S. may be quite elevated.”
Even before the war, traders weren’t expecting a cut at this week’s meeting. Instead, they expected the FOMC would wait until June, then cut at least once more before the end of the year, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch pricing.
However, the attacks — and their impact on oil and inflation — have changed the market’s calculus, even though Fed officials generally look through the types of oil shocks that have accompanied the fighting.
As such, all eyes will be on Powell’s messaging. If things go as planned, this will be Powell’s next-to-last meeting as chair, so even then markets might be wary of reading too much into the chair’s statements.
Forging the future
“With an April cut almost entirely priced out, Powell’s ability to guide markets depends on the extent to which they perceive his comments as representing the committee’s consensus rather than his own views,” Bank of America Fed-watchers said in a note. “Even setting this constraint aside, Powell will have his work cut out for him.”
Former Fed Vice Chair Roger Ferguson told CNBC he expects the committee to be “circumspect” in its post-meeting statement as it characterizes inflation, unemployment, economic growth and the expected path of policy.
“The question in front of everyone’s minds is, what do they say, if anything, about the future and how they think about changing the balance of risks,” he said.
In weighing the labor market against inflation, Ferguson said he’d prefer the Fed focus on prices.
“I’m more worried about higher inflation. You know, the Fed has a 2% target. They’ve been away from that target for multiple years now, actually,” he said. “At some point, it’s going to start to come into question whether or not the 2% target is really what the Fed’s aiming at, and so I am much more worried about that.”
Watching the dot plot
Investors will get a deeper look into the committee’s thinking when it releases updates to the Summary of Economic Projections. Within that release is the Fed’s closely watched “dot plot” grid of individual officials’ expectations for interest rates.
However, most observers expect few changes in the SEP or the dot plot: The Fed could nudge up economic growth and inflation a bit from the last update in December, but the rate outlook is expected to remain largely intact. Officials in December that they see just one cut this year, and the consensus is figured to hold even with the dissents that have accompanied recent Fed decisions.
“Looking at their communications, they will likely emphasize that the conflict in the Middle East has added further uncertainty to the outlook for both inflation and employment. However, their forecasts could look remarkably similar to three months ago,” wrote David Kelly, chief global strategist at JPMorgan Wealth Management.
On top of everything else, there’s also a lingering political air over the Fed.
President Donald Trump for years has been pressing the central bank, and Powell in particular, to cut rates. In an appearance before media members Monday, Trump again lashed out at the chair, saying that Powell should have called a special meeting.
“What’s a better time to cut interest rates than now? A third-grade student would know that,” Trump said.
However, Trump’s own Justice Department is holding up replacing Powell.
His nomination of Kevin Warsh to succeed Powell in May is being held up by a case the U.S. Attorney Jeanine Pirro is pursuing against Powell over the Fed’s headquarters renovation. Until that is resolved, Sen. Thom Tillis, R-N.C., has said he will block the Warsh nomination in the Senate Banking Committee.
This is a “scam coin” that “rugged people,” one analyst claimed.
The meme coin PIPPIN, which was among crypto’s rock stars not long ago due to its staggering price increase, has crashed by approximately 50% over the past day alone.
The big question now is whether a rebound is on the horizon or if this was a textbook rug pull, signaling that things may only get worse from here.
The Scam Revealed Its Real Face?
While the broader crypto market struggled throughout February, the lesser-known meme coin PIPPIN defied the negative conditions, registering a triple-digit price explosion. At one point, the valuation surged to $0.76, whereas towards the end of last month it climbed to an all-time high of almost $0.90.
PIPPIN’s market capitalization briefly reached nearly $900 million, thus entering the elite club of the 100 biggest cryptocurrencies, but that success was short-lived. The beginning of March saw a substantial correction, which intensified after a 52% decline over the last 24 hours. In a matter of a single day, nearly $200 million of the asset’s market cap was vaporized, and it now ranks as the 188th-largest digital asset.
The most evident reason for the crash appears to be the selling spree initiated by certain investors. Some X users reported that the same wallets that accumulated PIPPIN last week recently dumped their holdings en masse.
The meme coin has been the subject of criticism from many market observers, even during its bull run. Last month, X user Dippy.eth described it as “the largest scam of the past year,” while others think the whole project is “a cabal play,” in which a coordinated group of insiders is believed to manipulate the price through their actions. Most recently, Crypto Analyst joined the club of critics, classifying PIPPIN as a “scam coin” that “rugged people.”
How About a Revival?
Despite the overwhelming opinion among industry participants that PIPPIN is a red flag for traders and investors, some remain bullish on the asset. X user Nehal, for instance, envisioned heightened volatility ahead and eventual price increase to a new ATH of $1.
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The asset’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) supports the rebound theory. The indicator measures the speed and magnitude of recent price movements, helping traders identify potential reversal points. It runs from 0 to 100, and ratios below 30 are considered bullish territory that could precede a resurgence. On the contrary, readings beyond 70 signal that a pullback might be on the way. Currently, PIPPIN’s RSI stands at around 24.
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Crypto World
Mastercard’s (MA) $1.8 billion deal ‘a clear answer’ to stablecoin’s unstoppable dominance
Mastercard’s planned $1.8 billion acquisition of stablecoin infrastructure firm BVNK is reinforcing a growing view on Wall Street that stablecoins are moving from a niche crypto tool to a core layer of global payments.
Analysts say the deal signals a shift in how traditional financial networks see blockchain-based money movement. “Stablecoins are integral to the future of payments,” said Mizuho analyst Dan Dolev, framing the acquisition as validation that digital dollars are becoming embedded in mainstream financial infrastructure.
Mastercard said Tuesday that it would acquire BVNK, a London-based firm that enables businesses to send, receive, store and convert stablecoins across more than 130 countries, for $1.8 billion. The company processed over $30 billion in stablecoin payments in 2025, according to analyst estimates.
For investors, the move helps answer lingering questions about Mastercard’s crypto strategy.
“BVNK is a clear answer,” TD Cowen analysts, who rate the company a Buy with a $671 price target, wrote, adding that the deal connects onchain payment rails with Mastercard’s existing network. The firm said the acquisition demonstrates that stablecoins can serve as a complementary infrastructure layer rather than a direct competitor to card networks.
That distinction has become central to the investment case. Earlier concerns that stablecoins could bypass traditional payment companies have given way to a different view: that they may instead improve how money moves behind the scenes.
Cantor Fitzgerald, which has an Overweight rating and a $650 price target on the stock, said the acquisition positions Mastercard for a coming “stablecoin adoption wave,” particularly as demand grows among financial institutions and fintech firms for faster and cheaper cross-border payments.
In recent months, this “wave” of demand has become clear as many traditional financial giants scramble to adopt stablecoin as their settlement rails. Even bitcoin purists, such as Jack Dorsey, who would have dreamt of a world where payments are done via Bitcoin blockchain, are reluctantly giving in to customers’ demand for stablecoin.
Those use cases are already taking shape.
Stablecoins are increasingly used for business-to-business payments, global payroll and remittances, where traditional systems can take days to settle. By contrast, blockchain-based transfers can move funds in minutes and operate around the clock.
BVNK’s platform adds that capability directly into Mastercard’s ecosystem, enabling 24/7 settlement and reducing reliance on intermediaries in cross-border transactions.
A long-term bet
While the financial gains for Mastercard from this acquisition may be small, the credit card giant has its eye on the bigger prize.
Financially, the acquisition is not expected to have a significant near-term impact. BVNK generated about $40 million in revenue as of late 2024, meaning the contribution to Mastercard’s earnings will likely be modest.
Instead, the deal will enable Mastercard to make a longer-term bet to become a front runner on a rapidly evolving industry poised to revolutionize how money moves.
Stablecoin transaction volumes have already reached an estimated $350 billion annually, and are expected to grow as regulatory clarity improves and more institutions enter the market.
For payments giants like Mastercard, the push into stablecoin infrastructure is about protecting core business lines, not just experimenting with crypto rails, according to Harvey Li, founder of Tokenization Insight.
“Card networks are the most exposed payment rail to stablecoin disruption,” he wrote in a Tuesday note.
Meanwhile, Oppenheimer analysts, who have an Outperform rating and $683 price target, said the deal expands Mastercard’s ability to support end-to-end digital asset flows, including converting between fiat currencies and stablecoins. It also aligns with the company’s broader push toward interoperability between traditional finance and blockchain networks.
William Blair analysts led by Andrew Jeffrey said: “We see Mastercard’s BVNK acquisition as further affirmation of the stablecoin market for cross-border commerce, rather than B2C payments, which are well served by card.” The bank has an outperform rating on the stock.
More deals to come?
As stablecoins enable faster, cheaper and always-on transfers, they threaten to bypass traditional card-based settlement systems. That pressure is pushing incumbents to adapt quickly – often through acquisitions rather than in-house development.
Before Mastercard’s BVNK deal, payments giant Stripe acquired stablecoin infrastructure and issuer startup Bridge last year for $1.1 billion. Global Morgan Stanley was one of the lead investors in crypto infrastructure provider Zerohash’s $104 million fundraising round last year.
The ultimate goal behind those deals is to embed stablecoins into existing payment flows, enable large-scale conversion between fiat and digital dollars, and extend card products into 24/7 programmable payment systems.
“It’s about rewiring how money moves across their network,” Tokenization Insight’s Li said.
BVNK sits at a key junction in that transition. It handles the movement of stablecoins across blockchains, wallets and traditional accounts, making them critical to bridging crypto and fiat systems. In fact, the deal shows that BVNK is a crucial player in the upcoming stablecoin growth, as both Mastercard and Coinbase were in talks last year to acquire the firm at a valuation of up to $2.5 billion. Coinbase dropped out of the deal talks last year, leaving Mastercard to make the move at the $1.8 billion valuation.
If the stablecoin growth momentum and this deal are anything to go by, it’s a testament to how quickly stablecoins have moved from the margins to the center of financial infrastructure and may open the gate for further deals in the sector.
Mastercard and its peer Visa’s shares were trading roughly flat on Tuesday.
Read more: Stablecoin market hits $312 billion as banks, card networks embrace onchain dollars
While some analysts think ADA could climb as high as $0.50 in the near term, certain indicators also point to the possibility of a pullback.
The cryptocurrency market has posted an evident upswing over the past several days, with Cardano’s ADA following the green wave.
Its price surged 8% on a weekly basis, while some analysts believe a more substantial pump may be in the making.
The Necessary Condition
According to the popular market observer Ali Martinez, ADA “is setting up for a bullish breakout.” He argued that the prolonged sideways movement is nearing an end, outlining $0.304 as the upper boundary of this channel.
Martinez predicted that a breakout above this level could open the door to an increase to $0.338 and even $0.376. As of press time, Cardano’s native token trades at around $0.28 and is quite close to the depicted mark.
X user ZAYK Charts also presented an optimistic forecast. The analyst claimed that ADA has broken out of a falling wedge pattern on the daily timeframe, suggesting this could be a precursor to a “massive bullish wave” above $0.50.
For their part, Celal Kucuker expects the cryptocurrency to experience heightened volatility and eventually skyrocket to a new all-time high of $5.67 sometime next year.
Meanwhile, ADA remains oversold on a weekly scale with its Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering around 30. Such ratios are considered bullish and indicate that a rally could be on the horizon. On the contrary, readings above 70 signal overbought conditions and hint that a correction might be imminent.
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Dead Cat Bounce?
Other on-chain indicators, though, suggest that ADA could head south in the short term. Over the past few days, exchange inflows have exceeded outflows, meaning that some investors have abandoned self-custody and transferred their holdings to centralized platforms. This is typically seen as a pre-sale step.
The recent whale behavior should also be taken into consideration. Earlier this month, large investors sold or redistributed 130 million ADA over a seven-day period, bringing their total holdings down to roughly 13.5 billion coins. A similar pattern was observed at the beginning of March, when whales moved about 230 million tokens.
When this cohort of investors unloads a substantial amount of ADA, it increases the available supply on the market, which can put downward pressure on the price. Big players often move before the crowd, so their selling spree can signal that they expect weaker conditions ahead. This kind of activity could scare smaller investors and might trigger panic selling on their part.
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