Bitcoin (BTC) may undergo a massive rally, based on a recurring gold chart pattern, with gains of up to 180% over the next 12 months.

Key takeaways:

• BTC is up nearly 40% versus gold since March after falling for seven months in a row.
• Similar BTC/XAU recoveries have historically coincided with Bitcoin bottoms in US dollar terms.

BTC may hit $167,250 within a year

The bullish signal comes from the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio (BTC/XAU), which tracks BTC’s performance relative to gold in US dollar terms. Historically, sharp rebounds in this ratio have aligned with major Bitcoin cycle bottoms, often preceding strong upside.

In 2015, a BTC/XAU bottom preceded a roughly 250% Bitcoin rally within a year.

Similar reversals in 2019 and 2022 came before gains of around 140% each. Excluding 2020’s 1,460% liquidity-driven boom, the pattern points to an average one-year BTC gain of about 180% after BTC/XAU bottoms.

BTC/XAU monthly chart. Source: TradingView

As of 2026, the BTC/XAU ratio has climbed about 40% since February’s lows. The BTC/USD rate has jumped 32.65% in the same period.

“Bitcoin versus gold is about to close a second month in the green after 7 red candles in a row,” said Nik Bhatia, founder of macro research firm The Bitcoin Layer, adding that “the bounce is in.”

Macro strategist Gert van Lagen spotted a “hidden bullish divergence” pattern that appeared following the 2014, 2018, and 2022 bear market bottoms.

Source: X

In its April report, meanwhile, Fidelity Investments said Bitcoin has entered “an accumulation phase” while outperforming gold.

A 180% repeat of past cycles puts the BTC price target at $167,250 by April 2027, if the BTC/USD and BTC/XAU February lows are confirmed as bottoms.

Multiple analysts, including Bernstein’s Gautam Chhugani, have projected BTC’s price to reach the $150,000 mark in 2026, driven largely by a potential capital rotation from gold.

In April, Matt Hougan, chief investment officer of crypto asset manager Bitwise, said Bitcoin can become bigger than the gold market’s $30 trillion capitalization.

Key trend line puts bullish outlook in doubt

BTC/XAU remains below its 100-month exponential moving average (100-month EMA, the purple line), a level that previously marked major bottoms in March 2020 and December 2022.

BTC/XAU monthly chart. Source: TradingView

Its January breakdown was the first clear loss of this support. Staying below it risks trapping bulls and delaying Bitcoin’s relative recovery against gold.

In the short term, BTC/XAU also faces resistance from a rising wedge on the daily chart.

BTC/XAU daily chart. Source: TradingView

The bearish reversal setup points to a potential 20% drop in Bitcoin’s gold-denominated value, based on the wedge’s measured move.

Related: Bitcoin eyes $75K after ‘most hawkish’ FOMC as oil hits highest since 2022

Macro conditions, such as elevated US bond yields and rising oil prices, may also disrupt historical patterns. As Cointelegraph reported, Bitcoin derivatives show traders are cautious as the Fed holds interest rates and BTC price consolidates.

WhiteBIT Coin surged nearly 8% on Wednesday, emerging as one of the top-performing crypto assets as fresh momentum followed a major partnership announcement.

The token jumped after WhiteBIT confirmed an expanded five-year collaboration with FC Barcelona, strengthening its presence in the global sports ecosystem. The deal introduces new utility features, including a themed WhiteBIT Nova debit card, aimed at integrating crypto payments into the club’s fan experience.

WBT has also continued to benefit from its earlier partnership with Juventus, which has historically supported price growth by boosting brand visibility and user adoption.

At the same time, the rally has been reinforced by strong tokenomics. WhiteBIT maintains a deflationary structure, with regular token burns reducing circulating supply. More than 64,000 WBT, worth around $3.5 million, were removed from circulation in late April, following another burn earlier in the month.

The exchange also allocates roughly 33% of its trading fees toward buybacks, further limiting sell-side pressure and supporting price stability during broader market weakness.

Market expansion efforts have added to the bullish momentum. WBT’s inclusion in S&P crypto indices has improved its institutional visibility, while a recent listing on Kraken has expanded access through new USD and EUR trading pairs.

A strategic cooperation with Saudi-based Durrah AlFodah Holding is also expected to support blockchain adoption initiatives in line with the country’s Vision 2030, potentially opening new growth avenues for the ecosystem.

On the daily chart, WBT has broken out of a consolidation range that had capped price action near the $55–$56 region in recent sessions. The breakout pushed the token to an intraday high near $58 before slightly easing.

Price is now trading above key moving averages, including the 20-day and 50-day levels, indicating strengthening short-term momentum. The Supertrend indicator has also flipped bullish, further supporting the upside bias.

If the breakout sustains, the next resistance zone appears near the $58–$60 region, where prior rejection levels are visible. A successful move above this range could open the door for a continuation toward higher levels.

However, if buying momentum fades, WBT could retest support near the $54–$55 zone, which now acts as a key level to watch.

Bitcoin (BTC) traders pushed the price to $77,400, but data suggests profit-taking may thwart the bull’s goal of turning the $77,000 to $80,000 zone into support. 

Orderbook data from TRDR shows over $130 million in asks extending from $76,700 to $79,300. 

BTC/USDT Binance perps orderbook. Source. TRDR.io

Given Bitcoin’s negative futures funding rate and the small negative long-short delta (-$1.47 million at the time of writing), bulls have a slight edge in the short-term.

The situation could shift further in their favor if the BTC price pushes into short liquidity starting at $76,800, where there is a -$66.5 million to -$189 million negative delta, meaning short positions face a significantly higher risk of forced closure.

BTC/USDT long-short-delta. 7-day lookback. Source: Hyblock

From a technical analysis perspective, the current price action saw Bitcoin lock in $75,000 as support through a confirmed support-resistance flip, and it also traded back above the 20-day moving average ($76,067) after falling below it on Wednesday and Thursday. 

Related: Repeat Bitcoin profit taking near $77K suggests rally is losing steam

In the short-term, the most desirable outcome for bulls would be a repeat of this week’s price action, where, in this case, BTC rallies through the channel trendline resistance at $79,000, followed by another SR-flip to confirm $80,000 as support. 

BTC/USDT 1-day chart. Source: TradingView

Beyond the expected profit-taking kicking in at $77,000, a volume spike in either spot or perpetual futures markets is the missing ingredient to absorb the selling and extend BTC’s breakouts. 

As shown in the TRDR chart below, the bulk of BTC’s intraday moves stem from liquidations and the absence of sustained spot volume and long leverage, resulting in rallies that lack duration.  

BTC/USDT perps (Binance), 4-hour chart. Source: TRDR.io 

Nexo extends its 0% APR, no‑liquidation Zero-interest Credit to Solana and XRP, targeting holders who want dollar liquidity without selling their crypto.

• Coinbase Asset Management unveils CUSHY, an on-chain digital credit strategy with a tokenized share class built on Superstate’s FundOS platform.
• The strategy targets on-chain public credit, structured private credit, and tokenized yield sources across Solana and Base, aiming to bridge traditional fixed income with blockchain rails.
• CUSHY underscores a broader institutional shift toward tokenized credit markets, following Coinbase’s earlier stablecoin credit initiatives with Apollo and its bitcoin yield funds.

Coinbase’s new on-chain credit push

Coinbase Asset Management (CBAM) has introduced CUSHY, a new on-chain digital credit strategy that uses a tokenized share class mechanism to bring traditional credit exposure onto public blockchains, in a move the firm frames as a bridge between legacy fixed income markets and programmable finance.

Built on Superstate’s FundOS operating system, CUSHY is structured to support 24/7 primary and secondary market trading of fund shares across networks such as Solana and Base, with FundOS specifically designed “to streamline the tokenization of real-world assets” for asset managers seeking on-chain capital formation.

According to Coinbase Asset Management, the strategy rests on three pillars: on-chain public credit assets, structured private credit serving both digital-native and traditional borrowers, and tokenized yield sources that package underlying credit exposures into blockchain-native instruments.

FundOS, launched by real-world asset specialist Superstate, is described as tackling “the operational complexity of fund tokenization” and is already used to operate tokenized portfolios like USTB and USCC, which Superstate presents as proof that traditional securities can be issued, managed, and settled on-chain at scale.

Those stablecoin credit strategies sit alongside Coinbase’s bitcoin-focused yield products, including the Coinbase Bitcoin Yield Fund, which targets a 4%–8% net bitcoin return per year over a market cycle while avoiding “riskier high-interest bitcoin loans and systematic call selling,” and the subsequent US-focused bitcoin yield strategy for accredited investors.

More broadly, industry research notes that tokenized private credit markets reached roughly $9.68 billion in 2025 after growing 930%, as on-chain credit systems emerge as “transparent, efficient, and permissionless” alternatives to bank-led lending that rely on smart contracts, decentralized oracles, and on-chain identity for underwriting.

Dogecoin posted strong gains over the past week, outperforming many top crypto assets. 

The token traded near $0.109, with steady daily volume and rising market cap. Short-term momentum has pushed prices higher despite a broader mixed market.

On-chain data from Santiment showed a sharp increase in whale transactions. The network recorded 739 transfers above $100,000 in one day. Large holders now control 108.52 billion DOGE, marking a record level. Santiment noted that “the memecoin’s +14% price rise over the past 10 days is very likely not just a coincidence”.

RSI signals overbought conditions 

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart climbed above 70. This level often signals overbought conditions. The current reading near 73 suggests strong buying pressure, but also raises the risk of short-term cooling.

The RSI trend has been rising steadily since mid-April. This reflects sustained demand. However, when RSI remains elevated, price pullbacks can follow. Traders often watch this zone closely for early reversal signs.

Additionally, the MACD indicator remains in positive territory. The signal line and MACD line are both trending upward. This confirms ongoing bullish momentum in the short term.

Histogram bars have also turned green and continue to expand. This suggests increasing strength in the current trend. Still, momentum indicators can lag during fast moves, making confirmation from price action important.

Resistance pressure and sell signals emerge

Price action shows Dogecoin approaching a key resistance zone near $0.11. The chart indicates multiple attempts to move higher, with gradual progress. This level has acted as a barrier in recent sessions.

Some analysts flagged caution signals. Ali Martinez stated that “TD Sequential flashes a sell signal on Dogecoin”. Another trader pointed to repeated rejections at resistance, adding that “the pattern is clean… this drop is coming”. These signals contrast with strong whale accumulation and ongoing momentum.

Polymarket partners with Chainalysis to deploy on-chain surveillance targeting insider trading and manipulation as volumes hit $7B monthly and regulation intensifies.

Polymarket has partnered with Chainalysis to deploy what it calls “a first-of-its-kind on-chain solution to monitor trading activity and enforce its Market Integrity Rules” across its DeFi prediction market platform, formalizing a surveillance layer explicitly designed to identify insider trading, fraud, and manipulation in real time.

In the announcement, Polymarket said that because “every trade, position, and settlement is recorded on a public blockchain,” that transparency can now “be harnessed to set a new public standard for market integrity in prediction markets and beyond,” with Chainalysis providing anomaly detection tuned to patterns “consistent with insider knowledge in prediction markets.”

Chainalysis system targets insider trading on-chain

The agreement spans multiple Chainalysis product lines, including investigative tools to create “blockchain-verified evidence for proactive and reactive engagement with law enforcement,” on-chain threat prevention, and professional services to “develop new detection capabilities and support complex investigations” as new abuse patterns emerge.

Polymarket framed the message bluntly, stating that the enhanced monitoring “sends a clear signal: insider trading, in addition to all types of fraud and market manipulation, is not welcome on Polymarket, and those who attempt it will be identified,” positioning the platform as a test case for what “market integrity can look like in an on-chain world.”

The Chainalysis deployment builds on a March update in which Polymarket published enhanced Market Integrity Rules and highlighted a “multi-layered monitoring system” on its Polygon-based DeFi venue, where all holders in each contract and their positions are publicly viewable and suspicious activity can trigger reviews, bans, and referrals to law enforcement.

Upgrade, volumes, and pUSD collateral

The integrity rollout follows Polymarket’s April 28 exchange stack upgrade, described internally as its “most significant overhaul” to date, which introduced CTF Exchange V2 smart contracts, a rewritten central limit order book engine, and Polymarket USD (pUSD) as a new collateral token.

According to Polymarket’s documentation, pUSD is “a standard ERC-20 token on Polygon, backed 1:1 by USDC,” with the backing “enforced onchain by the smart contract — no algorithmic peg, no fractional reserve,” while all trading still settles in native USDC to improve capital efficiency at the settlement layer.

The platform is migrating off bridged USDC.e toward pUSD issued directly against Circle’s USDC, a shift Polymarket says is designed to cut failed trades, lower gas costs, and improve order management, with most users handled automatically via a one-time approval prompt and API traders required to reconfigure clients for the new contracts.

This infrastructure push is happening against a backdrop of explosive growth: Polymarket set a new all-time daily volume record of about $425 million on February 28, surpassing its prior high from the 2024 U.S. election, while February’s total volume topped $7 billion — roughly a 7.5x year-over-year jump, according to on-chain analytics cited by multiple research firms.

Regulatory and compliance pressure around prediction markets is intensifying as well, with recent analyses noting that by early 2026, platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi were outlining fresh insider trading controls and governance restrictions as the broader sector scaled toward roughly $21 billion in monthly volume, making robust surveillance a prerequisite for institutional participation.

Gemini’s Olympus unit won CFTC clearing license enabling in-house derivatives infrastructure for futures, options, perpetuals, and prediction markets.

Gemini announced April 30 that its affiliate Gemini Olympus received a Derivatives Clearing Organization (DCO) license from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, positioning the exchange as one of few crypto-native platforms with complete regulatory infrastructure to operate derivatives clearing in the United States. The license allows Olympus to act as a clearinghouse for regulated derivatives trading, including prediction markets.

“Today marks a major milestone in Gemini’s marketplace expansion,” said Cameron Winklevoss, Gemini’s President. “In addition to our crypto spot marketplace, Gemini now has a full-stack, end-to-end marketplace for predictions as well as futures, options, and more.”

The DCO approval follows the CFTC‘s December 2025 designation of Gemini Titan as a Designated Contract Market, which enabled the launch of its predictions marketplace the same month. Gemini Titan will explore expanding its derivatives offering for U.S. customers to include crypto futures, options, and perpetual contracts.

According to The Block, Gemini is pursuing a futures commission merchant (FCM) license from the CFTC and working to obtain all derivatives-related licenses from the regulator. The company said it now has end-to-end trading infrastructure spanning spot crypto, prediction markets, futures and options.

Winklevoss described the DCO license as “a major building block for our super app, where users will be able to fulfill their existing and future financial needs all in one place”.

The United Kingdom’s financial regulator has signed off on new rules and guidance for tokenized funds, aiming to make it easier for asset managers to use blockchains within the existing fund regime rather than in separate experimental structures.

In a Thursday policy statement, PS26/7, the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) said tokenization and distributed ledger technology (DLT) could make fund management more efficient and that it wants to “support innovation in the UK asset management sector,” as part of a digital assets roadmap first outlined in a January 2025 letter to the prime minister.

The changes give firms a clearer path to integrate blockchain into regulated fund operations, as policymakers seek to modernize market infrastructure without altering existing investor protection frameworks, and reflect a broader push to bring tokenized finance into the regulatory perimeter rather than allowing it to develop in parallel systems.

Simon Walls, executive director of markets at the FCA, said in the release that tokenization would “play an important role in asset management,” and that the regulator had delivered a practical framework to give firms confidence in how fund tokenization can operate within the FCA’s rules.

How tokenized funds move into the UK rulebook

PS26/7 allows firms to run investor records on DLT using the industry “Blueprint” model, confirming that onchain transaction records can serve as the primary books for unit deals without requiring a full off-chain duplicate, provided “appropriate resiliency plans” are in place.

Related: Coinbase rolls out UK crypto-backed loans as FCA shapes rules

The FCA said the Blueprint has already been used to authorize the first tokenized UK undertakings for collective investment in transferable securities (UCITS), and that authorized funds can maintain their register on public DLT networks if controls meet its standards, including issuing units across multiple blockchains as long as investors’ rights and charges remain consistent.

FCA guidance for fund tokenization. Source: FCA

The main rule change is an optional “Direct‑to‑Fund” (D2F) dealing model, where the fund or its depositary, rather than the manager, is the counterparty to investor trades. Deals go through a single step in which units are issued or canceled directly against cash moving between investors and the fund, a structure the FCA says is intended to make fund operations more efficient and easier to align with onchain settlement.

Looking ahead, the FCA sketches a roadmap that moves from today’s tokenized funds to tokenized assets and, eventually, tokenized cash flows, including models where investors hold tokenized assets in digital wallets and managers use smart contracts to manage them.

The regulator says it remains open to waivers so funds can use digital cash and stablecoins for settlement and certain expenses, and that it will seek further views in 2026 on wider use of DLT in wholesale markets

The policy statement comes after the FCA opened a consultation on guidance for its wider cryptoasset regime earlier this month, covering stablecoin issuance, trading, custody and staking, ahead of a full framework due to take effect in October 2027.

Cointelegraph reached out to the FCA for comment but had not received a response by publication.

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