The urgent need for a “mass extinction” of “junk coins” from the crypto market is not at all a new topic. Cardano Founder Charles Hoskinson and Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin predicted that over 90% of the initial coin offering (ICO) era would fail. Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse in 2019 agreed 99% of all cryptocurrencies would vanish.

The sentiment remains unchanged. Arthur Hayes said in his keynote at Consensus Miami 2026 that “99% of altcoins could eventually go to zero,” citing a shift in fiat liquidity as the only real driver for the few that survive.

Ben Cowen, a market analyst and founder of Into the Cryptoverse, told CoinDesk the purge has been underway since 2021, but a more meaningful “junk-coin cleansing” is necessary before bitcoin can enter a sustainable bull cycle.

With bitcoin hovering over $81,000 on Thursday for the first time since late January, many might believe the crypto winter is over, as Michael Saylor recently suggested. However, a growing chorus of analysts warns this might be a “relief rally” built on apathy rather than euphoria. They point to untouched liquidity sitting below $60,000 and the 200-day hurdle.

The junk coin purge must occur

Bitcoin is currently bumping up against its 200-day moving average of roughly $82,300. Historically, failing to settle above these lines leads to a sharp “drawdown” as buyers lose confidence. If bitcoin fails to flip $88,880 into support in the coming days, a pullback toward $58,000–$62,000 is the most probable outcome, according to Cohen?

“For the bottom to be confirmed, price needs to clear 88,880 and hold—not wick through, not retest and fail. That puts the most recent cohort back in profit and removes the first layer of sell pressure,” technical analysts at CryptoQuant posted on X Thursday,

“For the global cryptocurrency market to achieve a genuine, sustainable bull run, a painful but necessary purge of thousands of speculative ‘junk coins’ must occur first,” said Cowen.

That shift is reflected in capital concentrating into bitcoin as weaker projects disappear. While GeckoTerminal has seen more than 25 million token deployments, the “mortality rate” has reached record highs. According to its data, over 11.6 million failed in 2025 alone, largely due to the collapse of the over-saturated memecoin sector.

“A clear indication of that is bitcoin’s dominance, which has been increasing since then,” Cowen said.

While bitcoin dominance gradually fell with the rise of altcoins from over 99% in 2013 to roughly 33% in 2018, it has since trended higher, reclaiming 60% in late April. Ark Invest recently suggested it could reach 70% by 2030.

“Bitcoin dominance when seen with stablecoins included is misleading,” Cowen said. When stablecoins are excluded, his firm estimates dominance is already above 67%, reflecting capital rotating out of weaker tokens. “Capital is not rotating into higher-risk assets, but instead consolidating into Bitcoin or moving to the sidelines,” Cowen wrote in his April 2026 Crypto Risk Memo.

The data of decay

Cowen’s report added that “the current cycle has been defined by a persistent downtrend in participation since 2021,” with bitcoin dominance rising while the advance-decline index for the top 100 cryptocurrencies trends lower

Matthew Pinnock, COO at Altura DeFi, noted that the explosive growth of automated launchpads like Pump.fun has ballooned the number of weak tokens, leading to an 86% failure rate among 2025’s new launches.

Luke Nolan, senior researcher at CoinShares, said the token-level purge has “already largely happened,” pointing to a collapse in memecoin market capitalization from about $150 billion in December 2024 to under $50 billion. “Ninety-five percent of tokens being worthless is fair,” Nolan said.

A gloomy short-term bitcoin outlook

Despite the $81,000 milestone, Cowen remains cautious. “I think BTC is in a bear market and will likely drift lower as the year goes on, with headwinds like geopolitical tensions and the Fed delaying rate cuts,” Cowen doubts “bitcoin will see an ATH in 2026. This is more of a reset year with time-based capitulation.”

Veteran trader Peter Brandt said Monday he believes bitcoin will rise to $250,000 in 2029, but only after a prolonged bottoming phase that may last until September and October. Michael Terpin, known as the “Crypto Godfather”, said bitcoin needs to fall to roughly $57,000 in the next four to five months before entering a bull phase. He dismissed a BTC ATH this year.

“I think this business cycle is a tough one as in order for the higher risk assets – like bitcoin and ether – to do well, we would need a crisis to justify much looser monetary policy,” Cowen stated. “But until that crisis happens, crypto will likely bleed to other asset classes.”

Bitcoin has already declined from a cycle high near $126,000 to a low near $60,000, a drawdown of over 50%, consistent with prior late-cycle environments, Cowen concluded.

In any other industry, the leader of a $60 million fraud would likely not be given a platform from which to lecture the public on dishonesty. In crypto, however, that type of experience commonly qualifies candidates for jobs as scam cops.

Pseudonymous trader 0xSisyphus, whose AnubisDAO ended in catastrophic failure, losing roughly 13,556 ETH, then worth about $60 million, has rebuilt a 153,000-follower platform on X as a blockchain cop.

Fortunately — for 0xSisyphus, at least — younger members of Crypto Twitter (CT) have never heard about Anubis.

Read more: The rise of the crypto influencer and the fall of truth

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In October 2023, anonymous investigator NFT Ethics claimed that OpenSea’s ex-Head of Ventures, Kevin Pawlak, was behind the account.

In a thread on X, NFT Ethics alleged that Pawlak ran “various very dubious business dealings” including “pump & dump schemes” through that pseudonym, including trying to unload a stake in his failing AnubisDAO onto Sam Bankman-Fried’s Alameda Research.

At the time, the immensely popular NFT marketplace OpenSea said it was unaware of any such activities involving Pawlak and, anyway, described his role as non-managerial. 

Maybe not theft, but negligence and lying

ZachXBT, the most prominent on-chain investigator in crypto, disagreed with parts of the NFT Ethics thread.

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Although he blamed 0xSisyphus for “gross negligence” and “lying,” he stopped short of naming him as Pawlak, or claiming that he actually stole money from AnubisDAO.

Whether or not 0xSisyphus stole money, his reputation of mismanaging a deca-million dollar, dog-themed crypto failure precedes him.

Unfortunately, after almost five years, memories of that episode have faded from CT. Victims were never able to recover their funds from AnubisDAO, yet no one went to prison for theft.

Instead, 0xSisyphus has spent those years reinventing himself as a self-appointed referee of other people’s behavior. Benefiting from the engagement, he’s used his following to promote a variety of other digital assets.

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everybody knows who @0xSisyphus is, it’s just a matter of whether you have integrity and care

— Mike Dudas (@mdudas) May 6, 2026

The arc is the genre, not the exception

Sadly, the character arc of the unpunished rugger-turned-social media cop isn’t unique to 0xSisyphus. Many of the key opinion leaders on CT have dusted their prior grifts under the rug while continuing to earn engagement for calling out others’ misbehavior.

Worse, the scam-cop posture is itself the rehabilitation tool. A few days ago, 0xSisyphus was calling out a $19,000 rug-pull while victims of his Anubis project deal with permanent losses worth millions.

On CT, a market commentator who mismanaged a $60 million failure becomes the only person left to call out $19,000 rug-pulls.

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This is an excerpt from CoinDesk newsletter ‘Daybook.’ Sign up here, if you haven’t already.

Bitcoin BTC$80,950.18 has pulled back below $81,000 after narrowly missing a test of the closely watched 200-day simple moving average (SMA), currently located near $83,300, on Wednesday. The broader crypto market is also trading in the red, with the CoinDesk Smart Contract Platform Select Capped Index losing more than 2% over the past 24 hours, making it the worst performer among major sector indices.

The 200-day simple moving average (SMA) is widely regarded as a key barometer of long-term market strength. A sustained move above the level would reinforce the narrative that the bear market ended during the early February dip below $63,000 and that a new bull cycle is underway.

However, there is an important historical parallel worth considering. During previous bear market recoveries, BTC has tested, and at times briefly broken above, the 200-day average before resuming its broader downtrend. Most notably, in late March 2022, BTC climbed above $48,000 and tested the 200-day SMA, only to collapse toward $20,000 by the end of June.

For now, macro and market conditions continue to lean supportive. Sliding oil prices and record highs in gold, alongside steady ETF inflows and improving on-chain dynamics, continue to support the case for further upside. Analysts at Marex pointed to three catalysts that could determine whether BTC extends higher.

“First, whether spot keeps buying into strength, not just buying dips. Second, whether exchange supply continues to tighten, which reduces immediate sell pressure. Third, whether the derivatives market stays constructive without overheating. If those line up, the path to the mid 80s opens fast,” they said.

Alex Kuptsikevich, chief market analyst at FxPro, said BTC’s recent pullback appears more like a pause than a sign of trend exhaustion.

“This pause also coincided with the RSI touching the overbought zone (>70) on daily timeframes. It is worrying that the previous three touches of these levels (in August, October and January) were followed by sharp selloffs. It is quite logical that market participants are taking a breather to assess the situation and gather strength,” he said in an email.

In traditional markets, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has eased to 4.32%, reversing the early-month spike to 4.46% in a potentially positive development for risk assets.

The Bank of Japan continues to intervene in FX markets to support the anti-risk Japanese yen, while several Asian currencies remain under pressure from the recent oil price spike triggered by the Iran war. Meanwhile, Nasdaq futures continue to hover near record highs. Stay alert.

Read more: For analysis of today’s activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today . For a comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”

What’s trending

BNY, world’s largest custody bank, expands crypto services in Abu Dhabi (CoinDesk): BNY, which oversees $59 trillion in assets, is working with Finstreet and ADI Foundation to build regulated digital asset infrastructure anchored in Abu Dhabi Global Market (ADGM).

Oil prices fall below $100 as U.S.-Iran tensions keep traders focused on Strait of Hormuz risks (CNBC): Oil prices fell Thursday in volatile trading amid renewed tensions between U.S. and Iran. International benchmark Brent crude futures for July fell 1.85% to $99.40 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures for June rose 1.85% to $93.21 per barrel.

Iran reviewing US proposal as Trump pressures Tehran for agreement on deal to end war (AP): Iran is reviewing the latest American proposals on ending the war, as Trump threatens with a new wave of bombing unless a deal is reached that includes reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

France moves aircraft carrier to Red Sea with eye on Hormuz mission (Reuters): France deployed its carrier strike ​group to the Red Sea as part of planning for a potential mission to secure the Strait of Hormuz.

Today’s signal

The chart shows bitcoin struggling to establish a firm breakout above the upper boundary of the rising channel that has defined its steady recovery from the February lows below $63,000.

Just above the upper boundary sits the closely watched 200-day simple moving average (SMA) near $83,300, a long-term trend indicator many institutional and systematic traders use to gauge whether the broader market trend is bullish or bearish.

Taken together, the top of the channel and the 200-day SMA form a key resistance zone. A decisive break above both levels would strengthen the case that bitcoin’s recovery is evolving into a broader uptrend and could open the door for a move toward the mid-$80,000s.

But repeated failure to clear this area could encourage profit-taking and short-term caution, especially after bitcoin’s strong rebound over the past three months.

Bitcoin (BTC) is attempting its first Bollinger Bands breakout in months, while creator John Bollinger is more bullish than some traders.

Key points:

• Bitcoin faces stiff resistance as it attempts daily candle closes above the upper Bollinger Band.
• Volatility comes on cue after the Bands’ tightest-ever conditions last month.
• Creator John Bollinger takes advantage of positive trading signals as part of his investment program.

Responses mixed as Bitcoin tests Bollinger Bands ceiling

Data from TradingView confirms that on Wednesday, BTC/USD saw its second daily close above the upper Bollinger Band on the daily chart, something it has not achieved since mid-January.

BTC/USD one-day chart with Bollinger Bands data. Source: Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The Bollinger Bands indicator, used to assess both volatility and momentum, recently saw the narrowest gap between its constituent trend lines ever recorded for Bitcoin.

This led to predictions of a breakout move, with the direction open to debate, as well as heightened volatility to come.

Commenting on the visit to the upper band, however, trader SuperBro noted that the price was now in an area full of potential points of rejection.

“Closed above the upper Bollinger Band, above the trendline on closing prices, but just below the log trendline on wicks,” they wrote in a post on X.

SuperBro added that most potential liquidations now belonged to long positions below the price, with shorts already taken out.

“There are relatively few short liquidations remaining up to 85K compared to long liquidations down to 74K,” they continued. 

“However, bulls still have the momentum advantage and I don’t yet see a good reversal setup. Despite the liquidation imbalance, I’m holding tight to see if we can blast through.”

BTC/USD one-day chart with order-book liquidity data. Source: SuperBro/X

Bollinger, the indicator’s creator, revealed that one of his investment fund’s proprietary trading models had flipped positive on Bitcoin, and had taken a position accordingly. 

Source: John Bollinger/X

“Overheated” Bollinger signal returns after 18 months

Wednesday also saw another Bollinger Band milestone, this time concerning the market value to realized value (MVRV) ratio for speculative investors.

Related: Bitcoin can crash to $50K if ‘most critical’ bear market test fails: Analysis

The metric, recently covered by Cointelegraph, compares Bitcoin’s market cap to the price at which the supply last moved, also known as its “realized cap.”

A Bollinger Bands derivative entered “overheated” territory for the first time since late 2024, the X analytics account Frank Fetter noted.

At the time, BTC/USD was building its first visit to $100,000 in history.

Bitcoin short-term holder MVRV ratio with Bollinger Bands oscillator. Source: Frank Fetter/X

Asked whether “overheated” conditions implied a price reversal, the account said this was “not necessarily” a given outcome.

This article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph’s Editorial Policy and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice or recommendations. All investments and trades carry risk; readers are encouraged to conduct independent research.

A 20-year-old California man has been sentenced to six and a half years in federal prison for his role in a crypto theft ring that defrauded victims of more than $250 million.

Marlon Ferro, of Santa Ana, known online as “GothFerrari,” was sentenced to 78 months in prison alongside three years of supervised release and $2.5 million in restitution, the US Attorney’s Office for the District of Columbia said Wednesday. Ferro pleaded guilty in October 2025 to participating in a Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations (RICO) conspiracy.

“Marlon Ferro served as the criminal enterprise’s instrument of last resort,” US Attorney Jeanine Ferris Pirro wrote, adding that when co-conspirators couldn’t talk victims into surrendering their crypto or hack into their accounts remotely, they sent Ferro to break in physically and steal the hardware wallets storing the funds.

In a February 2024 incident, he traveled to Winnsboro, Texas, broke into a home and walked out with a hardware wallet holding about 100 Bitcoin worth more than $5 million at the time. Months later, he flew to New Mexico, spent days staking out a residence and used a brick to smash his way inside while co-conspirators monitored the victim’s location through his iCloud account. A home surveillance camera caught him in the act.

Ferro using a brick to break into a victim’s home. Source: Justice

Related: Coinbase faces lawsuit over frozen funds from $55M crypto theft

When hacking didn’t work, they sent a burglar

The conspiracy ran from late 2023 to early 2025, with members across California, Connecticut, New York, Florida and overseas. The conspirators each had a role, including hacking databases, identifying targets, making fraudulent calls and laundering money. When victims kept their funds on hardware wallets that couldn’t be accessed remotely, the gang turned to Ferro.

Ferro and his co-conspirators spent the stolen funds on luxury items, including Hermès Birkin bags, watches priced up to $500,000, private jets and exotic cars worth as much as $3.8 million. Nightclub tabs alone reached $500,000 in a single evening.

Ferro also laundered money using fake identification documents, purchased over $255,000 in designer goods for co-conspirators, and helped a jailed conspiracy leader by converting crypto to cash to cover legal fees.

The investigation was led by the FBI and IRS Criminal Investigation.

Related: Law enforcement freezes $41M connected to $150M crypto Ponzi collapse

Crypto hack losses top $630 million in April

April was the worst month for crypto hacks in over a year, with losses totaling $629.7 million, according to DefiLlama. KelpDAO’s $293 million exploit and Drift Protocol’s $280 million hack drove the bulk of the damage, together accounting for more than 90% of monthly losses.

According to Chainalysis security head Yaniv Nissenboim, April’s hack surge reflects a shift toward sophisticated attacks targeting the infrastructure connecting onchain protocols to offchain systems.

Magazine: AI-driven hacks could kill DeFi — unless projects act now

Cointelegraph is committed to independent, transparent journalism. This news article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph’s Editorial Policy and aims to provide accurate and timely information. Readers are encouraged to verify information independently.

Key Highlights

• AMINA becomes pioneering regulated financial institution to offer Canton Coin trading services
• Swiss crypto bank introduces regulated custody solutions for Canton Coin holdings
• AMINA broadens institutional digital asset offerings with Canton Coin integration
• Canton Network infrastructure receives boost as AMINA launches trading and custody
• AMINA advances tokenized asset access through Canton Coin platform support

Swiss digital asset bank AMINA has introduced regulated custody and trading capabilities for Canton Coin throughout its institutional banking infrastructure. This strategic expansion reinforces AMINA’s standing in blockchain-based financial services and tokenized asset solutions. The integration provides institutional clients with direct Canton Network access under comprehensive regulatory supervision.

Swiss Bank Broadens Canton Network Institutional Reach

AMINA achieved a milestone as the inaugural FINMA-regulated banking institution to deliver custody and trading capabilities for Canton Coin. The Swiss bank broadened regulated entry points to blockchain technology designed specifically for capital markets functions. This integration facilitates tokenized asset management, collateral operations, repurchase agreement activity, and financial settlement processes.

AMINA rolled out these new capabilities via its regulated banking infrastructure headquartered in Zug, Switzerland. Institutional clients can now maintain and execute Canton Coin transactions directly through the bank, eliminating reliance on third-party crypto custodians or trading platforms. These services specifically address institutions leveraging blockchain technology for settlement operations and asset tokenization processes.

Canton Network maintains its appeal among established financial services companies seeking privacy-oriented blockchain solutions. The network presently facilitates approximately $9 trillion in digitized assets throughout financial markets infrastructure. Digital Asset engineered this infrastructure with backing from prominent financial institutions and cryptocurrency industry participants.

Canton Network Strengthens Position in Institutional Finance

AMINA unveiled Canton Coin capabilities amid intensifying institutional blockchain adoption throughout worldwide financial markets. Canton Network consolidated its role in tokenized finance and compliant settlement infrastructure. The platform emphasizes privacy preservation, operational control, and atomic settlement capabilities for regulated financial entities.

Numerous established finance organizations currently utilize Canton Network infrastructure spanning various market categories. Participating institutions include Visa, BitGo, Goldman Sachs, Citadel, and the Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation. Their involvement demonstrates rising institutional appetite for regulated blockchain frameworks and settlement technologies.

Institutional engagement with Canton Network experienced notable growth throughout recent periods across diverse financial instruments. Earlier in the year, BitGo extended its Canton-focused offerings beyond custody functions into trading and blockchain-based settlement. Furthermore, S&P Dow Jones Indices incorporated its US Treasury Index benchmark into the network for tokenized fixed-income product access.

Swiss Bank Extends Regulated Digital Asset Operations

AMINA has systematically developed its regulated cryptocurrency operations throughout Asia and Europe during the previous year. In November 2025, regulatory authorities in Hong Kong granted enhanced licensing authorization for AMINA’s regional subsidiary. This authorization enabled institutional cryptocurrency trading and custody capabilities within Hong Kong’s financial markets.

The Hong Kong authorization additionally broadened AMINA’s support for numerous prominent digital currencies and stablecoins. Approved digital assets encompassed Bitcoin, Ethereum, USD Coin, and Tether throughout institutional banking platforms. Consequently, AMINA fortified its regulated digital asset portfolio for professional market participants and family office clients.

AMINA simultaneously extended its European footprint through additional regulatory clearances under the European Union’s MiCA regulatory framework. Austria’s Financial Market Authority granted approval to the bank’s Austrian entity for cryptocurrency trading and custody operations. Moreover, AMINA launched institutional financial products connected to Ripple’s RLUSD stablecoin, Polygon staking mechanisms, and USD Coin yield-generating accounts.