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Bitcoin options hit $31.3B on Deribit ahead of May 29

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Bitcoin traders face possible 70% drawdown with $38k target in play

Bitcoin options open interest on Deribit has reached $31.3 billion, overtaking BlackRock’s IBIT ahead of a $6.25 billion expiry.

Summary

  • Deribit’s Bitcoin options open interest hit $31.3 billion on May 21, overtaking BlackRock’s IBIT at $27 billion, according to Checkonchain data.
  • A total of 80,535 contracts worth $6.25 billion are set to expire on Deribit on May 29, with $75,000 as the max pain level.
  • The put/call ratio of 0.86 is modestly bullish, but max pain sitting $2,000 below current price creates a gravitational pull toward $75,000.

Deribit’s Bitcoin options open interest climbed to $31.3 billion on May 21, overtaking BlackRock’s IBIT at $27 billion. The reversal comes after IBIT briefly surpassed Deribit in April for the first time since ETF options launched in November 2024.

A total of 80,535 contracts worth $6.25 billion are set to expire on Deribit on May 29. The $75,000 strike holds the largest put concentration at $394 million, while the $80,000 call strike dominates with $532 million.

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Why the $75,000 max pain level is the number to watch

The put/call ratio of 0.86 reflects a modestly bullish market stance. With max pain sitting roughly $2,000 below Bitcoin’s current price near $77,000, a gravitational pull toward $75,000 remains a real risk heading into the May 29 settlement.

Max pain is the price level where option buyers lose the most and sellers profit the most. Market makers typically hedge toward this level as expiry approaches, which can act as a soft price magnet in the days before settlement.

Crypto.news has tracked the $75,000 level as a persistent battleground throughout 2026. The April expiry saw a similar dynamic, with heavy positioning around key strikes as settlement approached.

What the Deribit versus IBIT battle signals for Bitcoin markets

The swing back toward Deribit’s dominance reflects how quickly positioning can shift between regulated ETF options and crypto-native derivatives. IBIT options carry longer average maturities than Deribit contracts, pointing to different investor profiles between the two venues.

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Traders piling into $82,000 call options ahead of May 29 suggest some participants are positioned for an upside breakout through the current call wall. Crypto.news has reported on how Bitcoin options expiry dynamics shape short-term price action.

Whether Bitcoin clears $80,000 or gravitates toward $75,000 will determine which side absorbs the larger loss at the May 29 settlement. The Bitcoin (BTC) price page tracks live movements as that expiry approaches.

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Delaware Lawmakers Advance Bill To Ban All Cryptocurrency Kiosks Statewide

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Delaware Lawmakers Advance Bill To Ban All Cryptocurrency Kiosks Statewide

Delaware lawmakers have advanced House Bill 441. This bill would ban the installation, ownership, and operation of all crypto ATMs across the state.

The bill, sponsored by Representative Cyndie Romer and Senator Spiros Mantzavinos, targets a class of machines that regulators say has become a tool for scammers.

Why Delaware Is Targeting Crypto ATMs

Federal data frames the urgency. The FBI’s Internet Crime Complaint Center recorded more than 13,400 kiosk-related complaints in 2025, with losses totaling more than $388 million. That marked a 23% rise in complaints and a 58% year-over-year increase in losses.

In Delaware alone, residents filed 181 cryptocurrency-related complaints and 255 wallet complaints last year, totaling combined losses of nearly $26.9 million. More than half of those complaints came from people over 50.

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Romer argued that the machines offer little to regular crypto traders. She noted that kiosk fees can reach 20% of a transaction, compared with 0.4% to 1% on online exchanges.

“These kiosks reduce digital currency to a predatory cash grab… There is no reason to support a business structure that enables scammers to extort money from our most vulnerable populations,” she stated.

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A Widening State Crackdown

Delaware would join roughly 30 states that have passed kiosk-related legislation since 2023. Indiana and Tennessee have enacted comprehensive bans.

The regulatory pressure has reshaped the sector. Bitcoin Depot, once the largest US operator, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy in May and pulled its network offline, citing state bans and mounting litigation.

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Missouri, meanwhile, has sued operator CoinFlip for alleged facilitation of fraud. The crackdown extends beyond US borders, with Canada proposing a national ban in its 2026 Spring Economic Update.

In Delaware, under HB 441, existing machines would go dark immediately, with full physical removal required within 90 days. Operators collecting fees from illegal transactions would face refund obligations or forfeiture to a state fund.

The bill now heads to the Senate. Whether Delaware becomes the next state to clear a full ban may hinge on the chamber’s coming session.

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BlackRock’s income-paying bitcoin ETF nears launch at a fee that undercuts rivals

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BlackRock's income-paying bitcoin ETF nears launch at a fee that undercuts rivals

BlackRock is close to launching a bitcoin fund that pays an income.

The world’s largest asset manager filed its fourth amendment for the iShares Bitcoin Premium Income ETF on Tuesday, according to its SEC filing. The fund will trade on Nasdaq under the ticker BITA.

The income comes from options. The fund holds bitcoin and shares of IBIT, BlackRock’s $47 billion spot bitcoin ETF. Each month it sells call options on those IBIT shares.

A call option gives the buyer the right to purchase the shares at a set price. The fund collects a fee, called a premium, for selling that right. That premium is the income it hands to investors.

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As such, selling calls caps how much the fund gains if bitcoin rallies hard. Investors take steady income in exchange for giving up part of a big move. The fund plans to write calls on 25% to 35% of its value at a time.

The fee is the edge, however. BlackRock set the sponsor’s fee at 0.65%, which sits below the two largest covered-call bitcoin funds, YBTC and BTCI, which charge 0.95% and 0.99%, Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas said in a post on X.

Balchunas added he expects the fund to launch very soon, noting BlackRock is under pressure to beat Goldman Sachs to market, with Goldman’s own bitcoin fund due to go live around July 1.

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BlackRock already has the strongest distribution base in the spot bitcoin ETF market. Its iShares Bitcoin Trust, IBIT, has become the flagship product of the sector, regularly drawing the largest inflows and often absorbing capital even when rival funds see redemptions.

IBIT and Fidelity’s FBTC have increasingly turned the U.S. spot bitcoin ETF market into a two-firm race, with smaller issuers often contributing little to daily flows.

The launch would be another step in turning bitcoin into an income product for mainstream investors. The filing shows the fund is already seeded and has started buying bitcoin and IBIT shares – a sign it is close to being ready.

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Major Bitcoin Demand Drop Sparks Debate Over Cycle Bottom Formation

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Bitcoin (BTC) has held above $62,000 on Thursday after a modest 2.3% surge in the last 24 hours. Amid increased investor anxiety, a new analysis suggests that Bitcoin may be moving closer to a potential bottom.

According to the latest CryptoQuant Weekly Report, the asset is currently trading a little over 15% above its Realized Price of $53,600, a level that, in previous market cycles, has often been associated with the formation of major market bottoms.

Mixed Signals

However, current demand conditions remain weak across the market. For instance, “Total Bitcoin,” measured by combining speculative perpetual futures trading and apparent spot buying, declined by around 652,000 BTC over the past week, the largest weekly contraction since January 2022.

At the same time, ETF demand growth has fallen to its lowest level on record, which essentially means that institutional buying, a major driver in the current cycle, is slowing down.

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Market cycle analyst Benjamin Cowen has also pointed out that major bottoms are typically confirmed only after key indicators cross and not beforehand, meaning the process can take time. This is in line with CryptoQuant’s view that Bitcoin may be entering a value zone, but a confirmed bottom has not yet formed.

There is still limited panic selling in the market, as on-chain data also shows that realized losses remain well below levels seen in earlier capitulation phases.

However, not all analysts agree that Bitcoin is approaching a bottom, with some expecting further downside ahead. Doctor Profit, for one, recently said that Bitcoin has entered Stage 5 of his six-stage bear market model, which he describes as a period of strong emotional pressure in the market. He warned that thinking the worst is already over is a mistake seen in past cycles, where traders became optimistic too early before another major fall.

According to the analyst, Bitcoin could still fall to the $40,000 to $48,000 range. He called this range the “Confirmed BlackRock Bottom,” while linking it to the price level where BlackRock launched its spot Bitcoin ETF in early 2024.

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Capital Outflows

Separate blockchain metrics also point to continued weakness. Another analyst, Axel Adler Jr., flagged ongoing signs of capital outflows and loss realization in the Bitcoin network. He found that Bitcoin’s Realized Cap 30D Change has dropped to -1.1%. The outflows have reached this level for the first time since mid-March.

He noted that Realized Cap has fallen by about $12 billion from its mid-May peak of $1.087 trillion to $1.075 trillion, and the pace of decline has accelerated in recent days. During the same period, Bitcoin also saw a sharp price drop, while adjusted SOPR has remained below 1.0 for 13 consecutive days, which indicates continued selling at a loss and no clear recovery in on-chain profitability.

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Nasdaq 100 Analysis: Is This The Beginning of a Deeper Correction?

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Nasdaq 100 Analysis: Is This The Beginning of a Deeper Correction?

As the chart shows, the Nasdaq 100 (US Tech 100 Mini on FXOpen) is down more than 6% from its recent highs, with Friday, 6 June, standing out as the defining session: a single-day loss of approximately 4.74% marked the worst daily performance of 2026.

The S&P 500 (US SPX 500 Mini on FXOpen) declined around 4% from its highs, while the Dow Jones (Wall Street 30 Mini on FXOpen) posted a more contained loss of approximately 3%. Investors and traders are now asking the same question: Is this the beginning of a deeper correction, or simply an isolated bout of volatility?

Why Did US Markets Sell Off?

The sell-off was driven by a combination of geopolitical, macroeconomic, and technical factors. On the geopolitical front, US/Israel–Iran negotiations have shown signs of escalation in recent days, injecting uncertainty into already fragile risk sentiment.

The primary catalyst, however, was Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls report, which showed 172,000 jobs added compared with forecasts of just 85,000. The stronger-than-expected reading sent the US dollar sharply higher, putting pressure on all inversely correlated assets, including equity indices, gold, silver, forex pairs, and cryptocurrencies.

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Adding further headwinds, Wednesday’s CPI print showed inflation holding at 4.2% (Core CPI: 2.9%), potentially pushing the Fed, now under new Chair Warsh, to keep rates on hold for longer.

Technical Analysis of the Nasdaq 100

The chart presents two contrasting scenarios.

On the bullish side, the price defended the 28,200–28,300 support zone twice, triggering a rebound toward the 28,800–29,000 region, a key former support level now acting as resistance. A clean break above this level could suggest the broader uptrend remains intact, while a rejection might initiate a sequence of lower highs and lower lows.

On the bearish side, a confirmed break below the lows of 9 and 11 June could potentially expose the 25,800–26,000 zone — where a key former resistance and the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of the late-March rally converge. An RSI divergence on the 4H time-frame, already visible before the sell-off, appears to be playing out in support of this scenario.

With dollar strength, sticky inflation, and geopolitical risk all weighing on sentiment, these levels could prove decisive in the sessions ahead.

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The Indicator That Called DOGE’s Collapse Just Flashed a Rare Buy Signal: Analyst

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Dogecoin could be primed for a major reversal, at least according to the metric that recently predicted its price crash to a 14-month low.

Meanwhile, analysts seem confident that DOGE’s current price range is a “good accumulation zone,” something that whales have taken advantage of lately.

DOGE to Rebound Soon?

The leading meme coin rode the mid-May push wave quite impressively, going from $0.092 to a multi-week peak at almost $0.12 at the time. However, the subsequent market-wide correction and overall weakness led to massive price declines.

One of the indicators that suggested a more notable DOGE drop was the Tom DeMark (TD) Sequential. It flashed a major sell signal for the OG meme coin in early May on the 3-day chart, and although it took some time, the asset indeed dumped hard, going from $0.113 to under $0.08, which became its lowest price tag in over a year.

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Now, this same indicator, which is used to determine the underlying asset’s market exhaustion in either direction, has flipped bullish, according to Ali Martinez. The analyst predicted that after the 30% correction, a “rebound could be around the corner” for DOGE.

Meanwhile, fellow analyst MikybullCrypto outlined a similar perspective, indicating that the meme coin currently sits on a “good level for accumulation.” As reported yesterday, Dogecoin whales have started purchasing at these lower levels, accumulating over 200 million tokens in a week.

Some Reaction?

Another popular crypto commentator, Daan Crypto Trades, also weighed in on DOGE’s recent price moves, suggesting that the token typically retraces to the $0.06-$0.08 range in bear markets. History shows, though, that it tends to get “some kind of reaction” once it gets there.

This same level was tested in February, and it held, but he added that “it’s still good to watch.” Daan noted that DOGE has fallen out of investors’ radar lately, but that doesn’t mean that it cannot repeat some of its previous historic rallies, many of which began from the current levels.

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Japan to Regulate Crypto Like Stocks, Could Pave Way for ETFs

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The country’s parliament is poised to pass legislation that would bring cryptocurrencies under the same regulatory framework as stocks.

The bill passed the lower house of Parliament today and is expected to take effect next year after going through the upper house.

The proposal could classify cryptocurrencies as financial instruments, subjecting assets such as Bitcoin and Ethereum to stricter trading rules while potentially lowering the tax burden for investors.

It’s important to note that Japan’s government had already approved a bill that granted crypto status of financial instruments, marking an attempt to bring digital assets closer to securities for oversight purposes.

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Lower Taxes and ETF Hopes Take Center Stage

One of the most closely watched parts of this particular legislative reform is taxation. Crypto gains in Japan have historically been taxed as miscellaneous income, with rates that can climb as high as 55%. Under the proposed framework, gains could be taxed closer to 20%, which is the rate applied to stocks.

That change would make the local crypto market much more attractive to retail and institutional investors, especially compared to the current system, which industry participants have long criticized as a bit too restrictive.

The move could also open the door for new regulated products, such as spot crypto exchange-traded funds. Bloomberg reported that the bill may help pave the way for ETFs, which give investors a fully regulated way to gain exposure to cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin without having to hold them directly.

Commenting on the matter was Masato Yoshizawa, a representative for the Financial Services Agency, who said:

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“We aim to foster more innovation by creating a sound trading environment. We’re not necessarily giving crypto a stamp of approval, but we’re aiming for healthy market growth.”

Japan Also Pushes for More Oversight

But the proposed legislation is not only focused on growth. By bringing cryptocurrencies under the rules that regulate stocks, Japan is also preparing stricter guardrails for trading activity. This means more control over insider trading, stronger disclosure requirements, and more restrictions altogether.

Naturally, this would align crypto much more closely with Japan’s existing financial market structure, where investor protection and market transparency are central in legislation.

That said, the next step is whether the upper house passes the bill and how regulations define all the details before the expected implementation next year.

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US inflation tops 4%; Bitcoin and gold face pressure, analysts say

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Crypto Breaking News

The May read on inflation cooled expectations for rapid monetary easing, as the U.S. consumer price index rose 4.2% year over year. The print reinforced a data-dependent stance from the Federal Reserve and tempered hopes for near-term rate cuts, even as some analysts still anticipate further rate hikes later in the year. The result added headwinds for risk assets, including Bitcoin and gold, while crude oil extended a rebound that has persisted through the year.

Bitcoin has endured a rough start to the year, sliding about 36% since January. Gold has fared no better, retreating roughly 23% from its January peak. In contrast, crude benchmarks have surged, with oil up more than 50% over the same span. The broad inflation backdrop thus remains a litmus test for capital allocation across risk assets and hedges alike.

“Today’s in-line CPI print keeps the Fed cautious, data-dependent, and in no rush to cut,” said Iggy Ioppe, chief investment officer at Theo, reflecting a common view among market participants that policymakers will await clearer signs of easing before altering the policy path. “For Bitcoin, an in-line print is unlikely to be a clean catalyst either way. It keeps liquidity expectations capped and risk assets trading more on positioning than on a fresh dovish impulse.”

Regarding gold, Ioppe noted that real yields remain a central driver. “Without imminent rate cuts, the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset stays elevated,” he said, underscoring why the precious metal has struggled as inflation data points oscillate between hot and not-so-hot readings.

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Key takeaways

  • The May CPI rose 4.2% year over year, reinforcing a data-dependent Fed stance and delaying expectations for near-term rate reductions.
  • Bitcoin has fallen about 36% since January, while gold has declined roughly 23% from its January peak; oil has gained more than 50% in the same period, highlighting divergent macro reactions across assets.
  • Institutional appetite for Bitcoin remains cautious. Markus Thielen of 10x Research says the macro setup isn’t yet supportive enough to trigger meaningful reallocations into Bitcoin by Wall Street players.
  • Geopolitical and supply concerns—particularly around oil—add an extra layer of uncertainty that could influence inflation expectations and asset mix in the months ahead.
  • Market odds on near-term rate moves reflect a wait-and-see approach: CME’s FedWatch tool pointed to a high likelihood—about 98%—of no change at the Fed’s upcoming meeting, underscoring how the inflation path governs risk appetite.

Policy backdrop and the road ahead

On the policy front, inflation dynamics continue to dictate the Federal Reserve’s posture. The latest CPI data align with a narrative of persistent price pressures that require careful monitoring before policymakers consider easing financial conditions. The debate among investors centers on whether inflation will meaningfully slow soon enough to justify rate cuts this year, or whether the data remains too fractious to permit a shift toward looser policy.

As traders parse these signals, the market environment remains fragile. The lack of a decisive shift in policy expectations suggests liquidity conditions may stay constrained for now, especially for assets that do not deliver yields. Tim Sun, a senior researcher at HashKey Group, captured the sentiment: “Only when inflation drops, rate cuts become viable, and liquidity improves alongside lower capital costs, will the overall risk appetite truly reverse.”

In practical terms, this macro tension translates into ongoing caution for digital-asset portfolios. Bitcoin, often viewed as a risk-on proxy in liquidity cycles, is susceptible to declines when macro catalysts loom large or when institutional demand remains tepid. The same backdrop has weighed on gold, despite its traditional role as a hedge, as real yields and the relative attractiveness of yield-bearing assets compete for capital.

Institutional stance and geopolitical risk

In the corporate and financial services sphere, the appetite for Bitcoin appears muted for the moment. Markus Thielen of 10x Research argued that the data released so far do not present a compelling case for a broad reallocation into Bitcoin by big investors. “We do not believe this data is sufficiently encouraging to prompt Wall Street investors to meaningfully reallocate into Bitcoin,” Thielen told Cointelegraph. He highlighted two key frictions: inflation’s persistence as a drag on risk sentiment, and geopolitical tensions—specifically Iran-related developments—that could compound supply-side volatility in oil markets and feed inflation expectations.

Thielen also warned that oil-supply disruptions could become more pronounced during the summer, potentially uplifting inflation expectations and complicating any near-term shift toward higher risk-taking in crypto and other speculative assets. In such an environment, the case for Bitcoin as a hedge or asymmetric bet remains nuanced, with outcomes highly dependent on the trajectory of inflation and the pace of liquidity normalization.

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On the rate-front, the market is already looking past the immediate horizon. HashKey’s Sun emphasized that while rate hike expectations were heating up, the probability of a policy move this year remains relatively low unless inflation convincingly converges toward the Fed’s target. The market’s current pricing—reflected in Fed futures—suggests traders see little chance of an immediate policy shift, reinforcing a wait-and-see stance for both traditional and crypto markets.

What to watch next

Looking ahead, two threads are particularly consequential for markets and crypto builders alike. First, the inflation path remains the arbiter of policy and liquidity: sustained deceleration would tilt the balance toward rate cuts and a broader risk-on rally. Second, geopolitical tensions and commodity-market dynamics could reintroduce volatility by injecting uncertainty into inflation expectations and the pace of capital cost reductions.

Investors and developers should monitor upcoming inflation releases and any shifts in the Fed’s communications. Attention will also turn to global oil supply news and potential geopolitical flare-ups, which can ripple across equities, bonds, and crypto markets alike. As the data flush continues, the balance between inflation normalization and policy accommodation will likely shape how Bitcoin, gold, and other risk assets perform in the near term.

For a clearer read on the inflation trajectory, traders often turn to data trackers such as Trading Economics, which notes the CPI’s movement as part of a broader inflation picture, and to policy trackers like the Fed Funds futures market. CME’s FedWatch tool remains a widely cited barometer of policy expectations, currently signaling a minimal near-term likelihood of rate changes absent a sharper shift in inflation trends.

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Researcher Jailbreaks Claude Fable 5 Within 48 Hours of Launch

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Researcher Jailbreaks Claude Fable 5 Within 48 Hours of Launch

An artificial intelligence and cybersecurity researcher claims to have jailbroken Anthropic’s latest AI model, Claude Fable 5, within just 48 hours of it being launched. 

“Pliny the Liberator,” a well-known figure in the AI community, said on Wednesday he “liberated” Fable 5, launched on Tuesday as a safety-tuned version of the more powerful Mythos model that Anthropic said was too dangerous to release widely.

He used various techniques, including a jailbroken version of Opus 4.8, to bypass the built-in safeguards that Anthropic installed on the model to prevent users from asking it for potentially harmful information, such as drug-making formulas or hacking instructions. 

“Despite this overly sensitive, authoritarian ‘safety’ layer on top of Mythos, my lil liberators have been hard at work […] cleverly finding the holes in the fence that the thought police missed,” said Pliny. 

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Some crypto users had already expressed concern during the launches of Claude Fable 5 and Mythos earlier this year that it could be used to attack crypto protocols and software. A jailbroken version of Claude Fable 5 would mean the threat is even closer than expected.  

Getting around Claude Fable 5’s guardrails 

“Pliny” rose to prominence around 2024 by developing and openly sharing jailbreak prompts for models like ChatGPT, Claude, Grok, and others, often posting “jailbreak alerts” with techniques that bypass guardrails shortly after new AI models launch.

To get around Anthropic’s security fence, Pliny said he used Unicode and homoglyphs, long-context framing, narrative and fiction framing, academic-style decomposition-recomposition, and a jailbroken Claude Opus 4.8 to get Fable to respond to his otherwise restricted prompts. 

“Perhaps the most effective is decomposition + recomposition in the backend,” he said.

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This involves breaking requests into small, innocent pieces and asking for harmless-sounding facts one by one. Each prompt alone looked fine to the AI’s safety filters, but when pieced back together, they produce something more useful or dangerous. 

Pliny demonstrates a path to meth synthesis by asking about the Birch reduction method. Source: Pliny

Backlash over Fable 5 mounts

Anthropic’s Fable 5 has prompted backlash from critics since its launch due to its heavy restrictions.

When a user prompts the model for sensitive topics such as bioweapons or cybersecurity, Fable 5 is designed to return a notification and then redirect the conversation to an earlier, less capable model.

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Related: AI agents with crypto could escape and become ‘unstoppable,’ experts warn

“This is one of the first times that an AI company has rolled out a guardrail, and there has been uniform disdain. It has led to a lot of justified anger,” said Sayash Kapoor, an AI researcher at Princeton University, according to the Wall Street Journal.

“The consensus seems to be that this has been one of the most disappointing model drops of all time, effectively preventing legitimate researchers from contributing their talents to our collective advancement,” said Pliny. 

Anthropic had found no universal jailbreaks

During the Fable 5 launch, Anthropic said it ran an external bug bounty program to look for ways to jailbreak the AI model. 

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“As well as internal testing, we ran an external bug bounty that produced no universal jailbreaks in over 1,000 hours of testing.”

Cointelegraph reached out to Anthropic for comments but did not receive an immediate response. 

Magazine: AI-driven hacks could kill DeFi — unless projects act now 

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The ECB’s Rate Hike Could Force the Fed’s Hand

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The ECB’s Rate Hike Could Force the Fed’s Hand

The European Central Bank is expected to raise its benchmark rate to 2.25% on Thursday, June 11, the first increase since 2023, as Middle East-driven energy costs push eurozone inflation above its 2% target. The move lands six days before Kevin Warsh chairs his first Federal Reserve meeting.

The ECB’s Governing Council cited energy prices as the primary driver of eurozone CPI, which is running at 3.2%, above the 2% target. Observers expect at least one further hike this year, with September the most likely date.

How a Stronger Euro Pressures the Fed

When European rates rise relative to US rates, capital tends to shift toward euro-denominated assets, strengthening the euro and weakening the dollar.

A weaker dollar makes imports more expensive for American consumers, adding to the inflation pressure the Fed is already struggling to contain.

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The ECB’s decision comes as US headline CPI sits at 4.2%, well above the Fed’s 2% target.

The central bank has held its benchmark rate at 3.50–3.75% across three consecutive FOMC meetings this year, and Wall Street prices a 97% probability of no change at the June 17–18 meeting.

But Kevin Warsh, who chairs his first FOMC this month after promising “regime change” on inflation discipline, now faces a global environment that reinforces the case for staying restrictive.

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‘Higher for Longer’ Goes Global

The ECB’s decision confirms something bigger than a single rate move. Energy-driven inflation is proving sticky, and no major central bank can yet claim a clear path to easing.

Goldman Sachs has pushed its Fed rate-cut forecast to late 2026 or early 2027, citing energy cost pass-through keeping US core inflation near 3% for the rest of the year.

Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack has warned that waiting for “definitive evidence” of embedded inflation risks requires “larger policy adjustments, at greater cost.”

The Fed’s own higher-for-longer signals now carry European confirmation. Bitcoin has tracked the collapse in rate-cut expectations almost exactly, falling from $82,000 in mid-May to the low $60,000s.

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June 17–18 is the next data point. What Warsh signals from his first press conference will tell markets whether this rate cycle still has further to go.

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Singapore bank DBS to offer tokenized gold to retail customers

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Singapore bank DBS to offer tokenized gold to retail customers

Crypto-friendly DBS Bank said it will start offering tokenized gold trading to its retail customers in the second half of 2026.

DBS said it will list the product, called DBS Physical Gold Tokens, on its digibank platform and is also considering making it available on the DBS Digital Exchange (DDEx), which is tailored for accredited investors and institutions.

The bank will tokenize, issue, distribute and manage the physical gold tokens entirely in-house, backed by trusted bank-grade infrastructure. Each token is backed by 1 gram of physical gold held by DBS in a dedicated vault in Singapore, the bank said in a statement.

The move builds on a growing trend towards blockchain-based versions of real world assets (RWAs). The size of physical gold holdings in the portfolios of wealthy clients of DBS has more than doubled over the past three years.

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In 2025, DBS tokenized structured notes on Ethereum and listed sgBENJI, the token of Franklin Templeton’s tokenized money market fund, alongside the Ripple’s RLUSD dollar-pegged stablecoin.

“While our retail investors have been able to buy gold funds, access to physical gold has been largely available to only institutional and accredited investors,” said James Tan, the head of DBS’ investment product and advisory unit. “DBS has offered physical gold investments to wealth clients since 2013, and we are now leveraging tokenisation to broaden access, enabling more retail customers to invest in gold in a safe and meaningful way.”

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