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Bitcoin price holds steady as short-term holders stay calm

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Bitcoin price outlook: Are short-term holders staying calm amid US-Iran tensions? - 1

Bitcoin price holds near $68,000 as short-term holders show restraint despite US-Iran war tensions.

Summary

  • Bitcoin price is trading near the top of its weekly range between $62,900 and $69,300.
  • Short-term holder exchange inflows remain muted despite geopolitical escalation.
  • A daily close above $70,000 could shift short-term momentum.

Bitcoin (BTC) trades at $68,308 at press time, up 1.3% over the past 24 hours. The asset is positioned near the top of its seven-day range between $62,905 and $69,340, recovering from a sharp dip earlier in the week.

The larger trend, however, is still corrective. After reaching an all-time high of $126,080 in October 2025, Bitcoin has dropped about 45% from that peak. So far in 2026, it is down roughly 20%, reflecting continued pressure following last year’s rally.

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Derivatives activity has increased over the past day. CoinGlass data shows trading volume rising 8.7% to $72.3 billion, while open interest has edged up 1.6% to $44.9 billion. When open interest climbs alongside price, it often suggests that new positions are being opened rather than closed.

Short-term holders are not rushing to sell

A March 1 analysis from a CryptoQuant contributor examined Bitcoin’s Short-Term Holder P&L to Exchanges metric. This indicator tracks whether recent buyers are sending coins to exchanges at a profit or a loss. Short-term holders tend to react quickly to fear-driven events and can amplify volatility.

According to the report, on Feb. 5–6, during a sharp market drop, roughly 89,000 BTC were sent to exchanges at a loss within 24 hours. That episode marked a clear capitulation from newer market participants. Since then, those loss-driven inflows have steadily declined.

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The recent geopolitical escalation involving U.S. and Iran provided another stress test. Bitcoin briefly dipped toward the $63,000–$64,000 area, yet exchange inflows from short-term holders did not spike.

There was no surge in panic selling or aggressive profit-taking from this typically reactive group.

That shift is notable. Markets often stabilize once forced sellers have exited. The current data suggests much of the recent liquidation pressure may already have played out.

Selling from recent buyers has slowed, and weak hands seem to be less active. Whether or not this calm continues will be crucial going forward. 

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Seller fatigue would be evident if exchange inflows from short-term holders continued to be low. A sharp increase in realized losses would indicate a resurgence of stress.

Bitcoin price technical analysis

Since January, Bitcoin has continued to move within a downward structure marked by lower highs and lower lows. The recent rebound comes after a sharp decline, and the price is currently consolidating rather than showing a strong trend in either direction. 

Bitcoin price outlook: Are short-term holders staying calm amid US-Iran tensions? - 1
BTC daily chart. Credit: crypto.news

Bollinger Bands show that before rising, Bitcoin touched the lower band around $64,400. At $67,300, it currently trades near the middle band. The upper band, near $70,100, marks immediate resistance.

A rejection in the $70,000–$71,000 zone would keep pressure on the upside, while a strong daily close above that area could shift short-term momentum.

The relative strength index has climbed from oversold levels in the low 20s to around 47. Momentum is improving, though it has not crossed above 50, a level often associated with stronger buyer control.

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The current structure resembles a sharp impulse lower followed by sideways compression, which can develop into a bear flag. If that pattern resolves downward, a return to the low $60,000s becomes plausible.

Support sits between $64,000 and $65,000. If that area fails, the next psychological level near $60,000 could come into focus.

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XRP Ledger Drops Out of Top 10 RWA Chains Amid Rising Rivalry

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Crypto Breaking News

The XRP Ledger has slipped in the global ranking of real-world asset tokenization protocols, signaling fresh pressure in a fast-growing market. Recent data places the network outside the top ten chains by on-chain RWA value. The shift highlights rising competition as multiple blockchains race to secure institutional tokenization flows.

XRP Ledger Loses Ground in RWA Rankings

The XRP Ledger now ranks 11th among blockchain networks by tokenized real-world asset value. Data from DeFiLlama shows the chain holds about $61.86 million in RWA market capitalization. This update pushed the network out of the top ten list.

Meanwhile, Plume Network overtook XRP Ledger with $74.02 million in tokenized assets. The change reflects steady inflows to emerging RWA-focused chains. As a result, XRP Ledger lost visibility in a sector it aims to dominate.

The broader tokenization market continues to expand across major layer one networks. Ethereum leads the sector with more than $13.3 billion in on-chain RWA value. Other chains, including BNB Smart Chain, Solana, Arbitrum, and Aptos, hold multi-billion dollar positions.

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Ripple Labs Expands Tokenization Efforts on XRPL

Despite the ranking drop, Ripple Labs continues to push tokenization initiatives on the XRP Ledger. The company has introduced network amendments to improve asset issuance and compliance features. These upgrades aim to attract more institutional issuers to the chain.

Ripple Labs recently facilitated the tokenization of $280 million worth of diamonds on the XRPL mainnet. The move added a significant real-world asset category to the ecosystem. It also demonstrated the network’s capacity to support high-value commodities.

Over the past year, Ripple Labs has formed partnerships to expand enterprise adoption. The firm has targeted asset managers and fintech companies seeking blockchain settlement tools. Through these efforts, Ripple aims to strengthen XRPL’s long-term RWA footprint.

RWA.xyz Data Highlights Contrasting Market Views

While DeFiLlama shows a modest valuation, RWA.xyz presents a different assessment of XRPL activity. The platform estimates more than $1.9 billion in tokenized products on the network. This discrepancy underscores differences in tracking methodologies across analytics providers.

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Earlier reports indicated that XRP Ledger surpassed Solana in certain tokenization metrics. Those figures reflected asset representation rather than strict on-chain market capitalization. As a result, platform definitions shape how each ranking appears.

The competition for RWA dominance continues to intensify across blockchain ecosystems. Developers across multiple chains now optimize compliance, custody, and settlement tools. Consequently, XRP Ledger faces a more crowded field as tokenization gains global traction.

Real-world asset tokenization has emerged as a central theme in blockchain adoption strategies. Financial institutions increasingly test blockchain rails for bonds, commodities, and funds. Therefore, market share in this segment carries strategic weight.

XRP Ledger entered the tokenization race early, yet rivals have accelerated deployments. Larger ecosystems currently benefit from deeper liquidity and broader developer bases. Even so, XRPL stakeholders continue to position the chain for future growth.

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The latest ranking shift reflects short-term metrics rather than structural retreat. However, sustained inflows into competing networks could reshape long-term positioning. For now, XRP Ledger operates in a market where scale and execution define leadership.

Risk & affiliate notice: Crypto assets are volatile and capital is at risk. This article may contain affiliate links. Read full disclosure

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Arthur Hayes eyes Fed easing bid as Iran strikes continue to echo into crypto markets

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Arthur Hayes eyes Fed easing bid as Iran strikes continue to echo into crypto markets

BTC swings about 8% in hours after Iran strikes, stays on a 5‑month losing streak as Hayes ties prolonged conflict to future Fed easing.

Summary

  • BTC slid from roughly $68k toward $63k on Feb. 28 airstrikes, then rebounded near $68k after reports of Khamenei’s death, an intraday swing of about 8%.
  • BTC is on track for a 5th consecutive monthly loss, its longest red streak since 2018, with February down about 14–15% and price nearly 48% off the $126k peak.
  • Hayes argues every major US Middle East campaign since 1985 has been followed by Fed easing; he plans to scale into BTC only after clear rate cuts or renewed QE.

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes published an analysis on March 1 examining potential connections between U.S. military involvement in Iran and cryptocurrency markets, according to his essay.

Hayes outlined what he characterized as a four-decade pattern of U.S. intervention in the Middle East followed by Federal Reserve monetary easing. The analysis suggested that extended U.S. engagement in conflict could increase the probability of Fed rate cuts or expanded money supply to finance military operations, which Hayes projected could affect Bitcoin prices.

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The essay referenced historical precedents, including the 1990 Gulf War, when Federal Open Market Committee minutes from August of that year stated that “events in the Middle East had greatly complicated the formulation of an effective monetary policy,” preceding rate cuts later that year. Hayes also cited the Federal Reserve’s emergency meeting following the September 11, 2001 attacks, when then-Chair Alan Greenspan reduced rates by 50 basis points, referencing a “heightened degree of fear and uncertainty” affecting asset prices.

Cryptocurrency markets responded to recent geopolitical developments during weekend trading hours when traditional financial markets were closed. Bitcoin declined sharply within minutes of initial reports of strikes on February 28, according to market data. The asset subsequently reversed direction following reports regarding Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s death.

Hayes’ analysis noted that every U.S. president since 1985 has conducted military operations in the Middle East, with subsequent financial impacts addressed through monetary policy adjustments.

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“The longer Trump engages in the extremely costly activity of Iranian nation-building, the higher the likelihood the Fed lowers the price and increases the quantity of money to support Pax Americana’s latest bout of Middle Eastern adventurism,” Hayes wrote in the essay.

Bitcoin has recorded five consecutive months of losses, a streak last observed in 2018, according to market data.

Hayes recommended a cautious trading approach given uncertainty regarding the duration of U.S. engagement and market tolerance levels. The former BitMEX CEO suggested that optimal purchasing opportunities for Bitcoin and other cryptocurrency assets would occur after the Federal Reserve implements rate cuts or resumes quantitative easing measures to support government objectives in Iran, rather than during initial conflict periods.

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Bitcoin Rebounds to $70,000 as Middle East Conflict Rages On

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BTC Chart

After dropping over the weekend, total crypto market capitalization is up 3.5% to $2.43 trillion.

Crypto markets are starting the week in the green despite the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, with most major altcoins posting gains.

Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at around $69,000, up nearly 5% over the past 24 hours, after reaching as high as $70,100 earlier in the day. Meanwhile, ETH and SOL are up 4% at $2,050 and $87, respectively, and BNB is up 3% on the day.

BTC Chart
BTC Chart

The overall crypto market capitalization is up 3.5% at $2.43 trillion, according to Coingecko.

The rebound comes after crypto markets initially sold off sharply over the weekend as the U.S. and Israel conducted a series of airstrikes against Iran, killing its head of state and high-ranking military commanders. Iran subsequently retaliated against its U.S.-allied neighbors, sparking fears of a wider war.

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Most of the Top 100 digital assets posted gains over the last 24 hours.

Top gainers include Near Protocol (NEAR), MORPHO, and Ethena (ENA), which rallied 14%, 12% and 10%, respectively.

Polygon (POL) and Canton (CC) are today’s biggest losers, down around 3%.

Around 112,000 leveraged traders were liquidated for $437 million in the past 24 hours, according to CoinGlass. Bitcoin accounted for $182 million, while ETH positions made up $114 million.

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Elsewhere, U.S. stocks reversed pre-market losses to trade relatively unchanged on the day, while precious metals pulled back. Gold is changing hands at $5300/oz, while silver fell 7% to $87/oz.

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Launch Successfully with a Professional Telegram Game Developer

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Account Abstraction Wallets The Infrastructure Layer for Next Gen Payroll

✨ AI Summary

  • Telegram has transformed into a robust platform for interactive applications and games, with businesses leveraging its low-friction entry to digital gaming ecosystems
  • To successfully launch a Telegram game, structured planning, scalable architecture, and reliable development processes are essential
  • Understanding the target audience, gameplay concept, user acquisition strategy, and monetization approach is crucial before embarking on development
  • Telegram supports various game formats, including tap-to-earn games for rapid user growth, strategy and simulation games for deeper engagement, and utility-based games for functional purposes
  • A well-designed architecture comprising a Telegram bot interface, backend services, databases, and integrations is necessary for stability and scalability.

Telegram has evolved from a messaging application into a powerful distribution platform for interactive applications and games. With millions of users interacting daily with bots and mini-apps, businesses are increasingly viewing Telegram as a low-friction entry point into digital gaming ecosystems. Compared to traditional mobile app stores, Telegram allows faster deployment, simplified onboarding, and direct user engagement.

However, successfully launching a Telegram game requires more than building a simple bot. Businesses need structured planning, scalable architecture, and reliable development processes. Companies that treat Telegram games as serious digital products instead of just experimental tools are the ones that achieve sustainable growth.

This guide explains how businesses can launch a Telegram game successfully and why many organizations choose to work with a professional Telegram game developer or hire a Telegram game development company to reduce risk, accelerate deployment, and get successful results.

Reasons Behind the Rapid Growth of Telegram Games

Telegram games have become increasingly popular because they remove many of the barriers associated with traditional game distribution. Users do not need to install applications, create accounts, or complete lengthy onboarding processes. Games can be accessed instantly through Telegram chats and mini-app interfaces.

Businesses are attracted to Telegram games for several strategic reasons:

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  • Instant user access without app downloads
  • Lower user acquisition friction
  • Global reach through Telegram’s user base
  • Integrated social engagement features
  • Faster product launch timelines

Telegram also provides built-in communication channels that allow developers to engage users directly. Notifications, community groups, and automated messaging create continuous engagement opportunities. These advantages make Telegram an attractive platform for startups and enterprises looking to launch new gaming products efficiently.

What Businesses Need Before Launching a Telegram Game

Prior to hiring Telegram mini game development services, businesses should define clear objectives and product requirements. Many Telegram game projects fail because teams begin development without a well-defined strategy.

Successful projects typically start with clarity in the following areas:

  • Target audience definition
  • Core gameplay concept
  • User acquisition strategy
  • Monetization approach
  • Technical requirements
  • Growth expectations

Businesses should also determine whether the game will function as a marketing tool, a revenue-generating product, or part of a larger digital ecosystem. This decision plays a significant role in affecting both development scope as well as technical architecture. A structured planning phase helps reduce development delays and prevents costly redesigns later.

Types of Telegram Games Businesses Can Launch

Telegram supports multiple game formats, allowing businesses to opt for models that best align with their objectives.

1. Tap-to-Earn Games

Tap-to-earn games are among the most popular Telegram formats. Players interact with simple mechanics such as tapping or clicking to accumulate points or rewards. These games typically feature:

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  • Simple gameplay mechanics
  • Quick user sessions
  • High retention potential
  • Viral sharing features
  • Reward-driven engagement

Tap-to-earn models are particularly effective for rapid user growth.

2. Strategy and Simulation Games

More advanced Telegram games include strategy mechanics and simulation-based gameplay. These games encourage longer engagement sessions and deeper player involvement. These games often include:

  • Resource management systems
  • Player progression mechanics
  • Leaderboards
  • Competitive elements
  • Seasonal events

Strategy-based games typically generate stronger long-term retention.

3. Utility-Based Telegram Games

Some Telegram games serve functional business purposes beyond entertainment. These games may be part of loyalty programs or digital ecosystems. A few examples include:

  • Reward-based engagement platforms
  • Community participation games
  • Promotional campaigns
  • Brand engagement tools

Utility-driven games often align closely with business objectives.

Telegram Game Architecture Overview

Behind the simple user interface of a Telegram game lies a structured technical architecture. Proper architecture design ensures stability and scalability as user numbers grow. A typical Telegram game architecture includes several key components:

1. Telegram Bot Interface

The Telegram bot acts as the primary interface between users and the game. It handles commands, user interactions, and message flows. Bot responsibilities include:

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  • User authentication
  • Command processing
  • Gameplay interactions
  • Notifications
  • Event triggers

Efficient bot design is essential for smooth gameplay experiences and this is where a professional Telegram game developer comes to the rescue. 

2. Backend Services

Backend services manage game logic and store player data. These systems ensure that gameplay remains consistent across sessions. Backend services typically include:

  • Game logic processing
  • User data storage
  • Progress tracking
  • Event management
  • Leaderboard calculations

Scalable backend architecture is critical for handling large numbers of concurrent users.

3. Databases

Databases store player progress, achievements, and activity history. Reliable data storage ensures consistent gameplay and prevents data loss. Typical database functions include:

  • Player profiles
  • Game progress tracking
  • Inventory management
  • Session history
  • Analytics data

High-performance databases improve responsiveness and stability.

4. APIs and Integrations

Telegram games often integrate with external systems to extend functionality. Some of the major integrations include:

  • Payment systems
  • Analytics platforms
  • Reward systems
  • Wallet integrations
  • CRM tools

Integrations allow Telegram games to operate as part of broader digital ecosystems.

From Idea to Launch: Building Telegram Games That Scale

Telegram Mini Game Development Services Explained

Professional telegram mini game development services cover the full lifecycle of Telegram game creation. Businesses working with experienced teams gain access to structured development processes and technical expertise. The major services include:

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  • Game concept development
  • Bot architecture design
  • Backend development
  • UI/UX design
  • Analytics integration
  • Performance optimization
  • Deployment support

These services help businesses launch stable and scalable games without managing complex technical workflows internally.

Step-by-Step Guide for Launching a Telegram Game

Top-rated Telegram mini game development services follow a structured development process that improves launch success and reduces technical risks.

Step 1 — Discovery and Planning

The project begins with defining requirements and technical scope. Teams align on gameplay mechanics and system architecture. This step includes:

  • Feature definition
  • Technical planning
  • Timeline estimation
  • Architecture decisions
  • Risk assessment

Step 2 — Prototype Development

Versatile Telegram game developers usually build an early version of the game to validate gameplay mechanics. Prototype development includes:

  • Core gameplay loop
  • Basic bot interactions
  • Initial UI design
  • Functional testing

This stage confirms that the concept works before full development begins.

Step 3 — Full Development

During this phase, the complete game is built and integrated with backend systems. Development typically includes:

  • Gameplay implementation
  • Database setup
  • API integrations
  • UI improvements
  • Performance optimization

Step 4 — Testing and Optimization

Testing ensures that the game performs reliably under real-world conditions, which includes:

  • Load testing
  • Bug fixing
  • Performance tuning
  • Security validation

Step 5 — Launch and Scaling

After launch, teams monitor performance and optimize user experience. Post-launch work includes:

  • Analytics monitoring
  • Gameplay improvements
  • Feature updates
  • Infrastructure scaling

Common Mistakes to Avoid While Launching Telegram Games

Many Telegram game launches fail because teams underestimate technical complexity. Some of the most common mistakes include:

  • Building without scalable backend systems
  • Ignoring analytics integration
  • Poor user onboarding
  • Weak gameplay loops
  • Inadequate testing

Avoiding these mistakes significantly improves launch success. When you plan to hire a Telegram game development company with proven expertise in this field, these mistakes are dealt with in the right way to ensure a successful launch. 

Timeline Expectations

Telegram games can be launched faster than traditional mobile games. However, realistic timelines still matter. Typical development timelines include:

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  • Basic games: 3–5 weeks
  • Mid-scale games: 6–10 weeks
  • Complex games: 10–16 weeks

Timelines depend on features, integrations, and architecture requirements. Working with experienced teams typically reduces development delays.

Why Businesses Hire Professional Telegram Game Developers

Many businesses choose to hire professional Telegram game developers instead of building internal teams since they provide:

  • Proven development workflows
  • Faster deployment timelines
  • Reliable architecture
  • Performance optimization
  • Post-launch support

Experienced developers play a pivotal role in avoiding costly technical mistakes and ensure a successful launch. 

Choosing the Right Telegram Game Development Company

Selecting the right partner is critical for long-term success. Businesses planning to hire a telegram game development company should evaluate both technical capabilities and delivery experience. Key factors to evaluate include:

  • Experience building Telegram games
  • Scalable architecture expertise
  • Backend development capabilities
  • Analytics integration experience
  • Post-launch support services

Antier, with its several years of experience and expertise, tends to follow a structured development process that is more likely to deliver reliable results and hence the selection should be made accordingly. 

Final Thoughts

Telegram games offer businesses a powerful way to reach global audiences with minimal friction. However, successful launches require structured planning, scalable architecture, and experienced development teams.

Organizations that treat Telegram games as strategic products rather than quick experiments are more likely to achieve sustainable growth. Working with an experienced Telegram game development company like Antier allows businesses to launch faster while reducing technical risks and ensuring long-term scalability.

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Frequently Asked Questions

01. Why are businesses interested in launching games on Telegram?

Businesses are attracted to Telegram games due to instant user access without app downloads, lower user acquisition friction, global reach, integrated social engagement features, and faster product launch timelines.

02. What are the key factors for successfully launching a Telegram game?

Successful launches require structured planning, scalable architecture, reliable development processes, and a well-defined strategy that includes target audience, gameplay concept, user acquisition, monetization, and technical requirements.

03. How does Telegram facilitate user engagement for games?

Telegram provides built-in communication channels such as notifications, community groups, and automated messaging, allowing developers to engage users directly and create continuous engagement opportunities.

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Nasdaq Joins Wall Street Push For Prediction Markets

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Nasdaq Joins Wall Street Push For Prediction Markets

One of Nasdaq’s options exchanges, Nasdaq MRX, has filed to offer cash-settled, binary-style contracts on the Nasdaq-100 Index, adding to a wave of Wall Street firms testing the prediction market waters. 

Nasdaq, the firm behind the second-largest stock exchange by market capitalization, is looking to offer “Outcome Related Options” for yes-or-no bets, priced between 1 cent and $1, according to its filing to the US Securities and Exchange Commission on Monday.

The offering would allow traders to take binary positions on events linked to the Nasdaq-100 and Nasdaq-100 Micro indexes — not on outcomes related to other events, such as sports, culture, or politics.

Some of the most notable stocks in the Nasdaq-100 include Nvidia (NVDA), Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), Google (GOOGL), Meta (META) and Tesla (TSLA).

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Source: Cointelegraph

SEC approval could see it enter a booming market alongside the likes of Polymarket and Kalshi, while crypto trading platforms like Coinbase and Crypto.com are also integrating prediction markets.

Other Wall Street players, such as the Intercontinental Exchange, CME Group and Cboe Global Markets, have also invested in the space or signaled an intention to launch their own prediction market-style offerings.

CME Group’s partnership with American gambling company FanDuel will enable traders to bet on markets outside of finance, while Cboe’s offering will be focused on finance and economic contracts.

Crypto asset manager Bitwise also filed with the SEC last month to launch “PredictionShares” exchange-traded funds that seek to hold event contracts tied to the 2028 US presidential election, while GraniteShares and Roundhill also made similar filings in February.