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Bitcoin Price Prediction: BTC Eyes $125K Target

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Bitcoin recovery rally fades as liquidations and macro risks return

Bitcoin price prediction turned aggressively bullish early Friday as CoinDesk reported that perpetual funding rates dropped to their most negative level since 2023 on a seven-day moving average, with ZeroStack CEO Daniel Reis-Faria targeting $125,000 within 30 to 60 days if the market’s heavily short positioning is forced to unwind.

Summary

  • BTC was trading near $74,700 in Asian morning hours Friday, up 3.5% on the week but down 0.4% on the day, with the 10-day global equity rally pausing ahead of the April 22 Iran ceasefire expiry.
  • The 7-day moving average funding rate dropped to approximately -0.005% per Glassnode data, last seen during the FTX crash bottom in late 2022, with every prior historical episode of similar funding extremes — March 2020, mid-2021, August 2024 — aligning with local price lows.
  • On-chain data shows many active bitcoin holders are currently underwater relative to their cost basis, meaning a squeeze-driven rally could face material sell pressure from holders who acquired BTC in the $75,000 to $95,000 range during 2025.

Bitcoin (BTC) price prediction turned aggressively bullish early Friday as CoinDesk reported that perpetual funding rates dropped to their most negative level since 2023 on a seven-day moving average, with ZeroStack CEO Daniel Reis-Faria targeting $125,000 within 30 to 60 days if the market’s heavily short positioning is forced to unwind.

BTC was changing hands near $74,700 in early Asia trading Friday, up 3.5% on the week but down 0.4% on the day as a 10-day global equity rally paused ahead of next week’s Iran ceasefire deadline. The asset has climbed from the mid-$60,000s through March and April despite persistently negative funding, meaning shorts have been paying longs for weeks while price continued to grind higher.

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Funding rates are periodic payments between long and short holders in perpetual futures contracts, designed to keep contract prices aligned with spot. When rates go negative, shorts pay longs — a condition that only develops when speculative positioning is tilted heavily against price. The 7-day moving average rate has dropped to approximately -0.005%, per Glassnode data, a reading last seen at the FTX crash bottom in late 2022.

“Funding rates this negative tell you the market is heavily short,” Reis-Faria said. “If Bitcoin continues to move higher despite that, a lot of those positions could get liquidated, and the move can accelerate quickly.” He targets $125,000 within 30 to 60 days if the short base unwinds, citing buy pressure from large corporate accumulators as the force most likely to trigger forced liquidations across the short base.

Every prior historical episode of similar funding extremes has aligned with a local price floor. March 2020, mid-2021, the FTX collapse in late 2022, the yen carry trade unwind in August 2024, and the Liberation Day selloff in April 2025 all featured deeply negative funding that resolved with sharp recoveries. For traders tracking the ceasefire hopes around the April 22 deadline as a timing catalyst, this historical pattern reinforces a bullish view on the near-term setup.

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What Could Prevent a Squeeze Rally

On-chain data introduces a structural counterpoint. Many active bitcoin holders are currently underwater relative to their acquisition cost, meaning any squeeze-driven rally that approaches their cost basis could generate significant sell pressure from holders who bought in the $75,000 to $95,000 range during 2025’s peak accumulation period. This is sometimes called the “wall of worried holders” — participants who will not be forced to sell but will sell when they can.

A rally to $125,000 would require absorbing that supply sequentially, moving through each cost-basis cluster without capitulating. The oversold signals visible in on-chain and technical data support the bullish case structurally, but the distribution of underwater holders complicates a clean short-squeeze-to-new-high scenario without a strong macro catalyst doing the heavy lifting.

The Catalyst Calendar

Three events over the next two weeks will resolve the current setup. The April 22 Iran ceasefire expiry is the first: a credible extension removes the geopolitical tail risk that has capped risk-asset rallies since February, while a breakdown would likely push BTC toward the $68,000 structural support floor. The FOMC meets April 28-29, and any dovish signal from Chair Powell would reduce the opportunity cost of holding BTC. A confirmed CLARITY Act committee date in early May would add a third potential trigger specific to the digital asset market.

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Circle quietly wires USDC into crypto’s new settlement spine

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Circle’s 16‑wallet USDC freeze revives centralization and blacklist debate

Circle’s new USDC Bridge aims to turn cross‑chain transfers into a near‑invisible backend plumbing layer for on‑chain dollars, replacing fragmented bridges with a single bank‑style ledger experience operated end‑to‑end by Circle itself.

Summary

  • Circle has launched a native USDC Bridge, a burn‑and‑mint cross‑chain service fully operated by Circle to unify liquidity and automate gas on the destination chain.
  • The new rail builds on Circle’s Cross‑Chain Transfer Protocol (CCTP), which already powers over $20 billion in monthly cross‑chain USDC settlements across more than 20 networks.
  • As stablecoins moved an estimated $27.6 trillion on‑chain in 2025, infra like Circle’s bridge is quietly deciding which chains capture real settlement flow rather than just speculative TVL.

Circle has rolled out a native USDC Bridge that lets users burn USDC on a source chain and mint it natively on a destination chain, with all routing and gas management handled by Circle. In its materials on the Cross‑Chain Transfer Protocol, Circle says the system is designed to “enable USDC to flow natively 1:1 between blockchains—unifying liquidity and simplifying user experience,” explicitly eliminating third‑party bridge liquidity pools and wrapped tokens.

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Built on top of CCTP’s burn‑and‑mint architecture, the new bridge effectively makes moving USDC between chains feel like shifting balances inside one ledger rather than hopping across multiple bridges and wrappers. A technical explainer of CCTP describes how “a sender deposits USDC for burn on the source network” before Circle’s attestation service authorizes minting the same amount on the destination chain, removing the smart‑contract risk that plagued earlier wrapped‑asset bridges.

Circle’s upgrade lands as stablecoins solidify their role as the de facto settlement rail of crypto and, increasingly, institutional finance. According to one industry analysis, stablecoins processed about $33 trillion of transactions in 2025, more than double Visa’s annual volume, with Circle’s USDC alone moving roughly $8.3 trillion in January 2026.

That flow sits on top of a growing technical footprint: separate data shows USDC and CCTP now support native USDC across 32 blockchains, with burn‑and‑mint transfers live on 21 networks. A recent post on cross‑chain settlements estimates “over $20 billion in monthly cross‑chain volume” now runs over USDC using CCTP, underscoring how much real money is already riding on Circle‑operated rails.

Circle has also started to consolidate those flows with infrastructure like Gateway and the Arc environment, which it describes as a way to “consolidate those crosschain flows into a unified USDC balance” and move from “multi‑chain balance reconciliation to deterministic, high‑speed settlement.” In parallel, projects like World Chain are upgrading millions of wallets from bridged to native USDC via CCTP, turning previously fragmented liquidity into fully reserved, directly redeemable digital dollars.

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In earlier crypto.news coverage of Circle’s CCTP upgrade, the company highlighted that CCTP v2 cuts cross‑chain USDC settlement to seconds, positioning USDC not just as another stablecoin but as programmable settlement plumbing for everything from perpetual DEXs to consumer apps. As on‑chain stablecoin transaction velocity accelerates and demand for new issuance flattens, the game shifts from printing more tokens to owning the rails through which dollars actually move—and Circle’s USDC Bridge is a direct play for that choke point in the crypto economy.

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France’s Lescure backs euro stablecoins as Qivalis readies 2026 launch

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BNP Paribas brings crypto ETNs to investors in France

France’s finance minister backs bank‑issued euro stablecoins and Qivalis’ 2026 launch, pivoting policy to keep Europe’s digital rails denominated in euros, not dollars.

Summary

  • France’s finance minister Roland Lescure says Europe needs more euro-based stablecoins and urges banks to explore tokenized deposits.
  • Qivalis, a 12‑bank alliance including ING, UniCredit, BBVA and BNP Paribas, is targeting a MiCA‑compliant euro stablecoin launch in H2 2026.
  • The push marks a shift from France’s earlier hard‑line stance on private stablecoins and aims to curb “digital dollarization” in European payments and DeFi.

France’s finance minister Roland Lescure has publicly called for more euro‑denominated stablecoins and urged European banks to move ahead with tokenized deposits, signaling a sharp policy pivot in Paris toward bank‑issued digital euros. Speaking at a crypto conference in Paris on April 17, Lescure said the current volume of euro‑pegged stablecoins versus dollar tokens is “not satisfactory” and warned that Europe cannot leave its digital payment rails to foreign currencies. His remarks come as the Qivalis alliance of 12 major European banks, including ING, UniCredit, BBVA and BNP Paribas, prepares a MiCA‑compliant euro stablecoin for launch in the second half of 2026.finance.

Lescure told attendees that “Europe need[s] more euro‑based stablecoins” and said he “strongly encourage[s] banks to further explore the launch of tokenised deposits,” framing the projects as tools to strengthen European digital sovereignty and reduce reliance on dollar‑pegged tokens. He explicitly endorsed the Qivalis initiative, saying “that is what we need and that is what we want,” in what is effectively a political green light for the consortium’s plans to issue a euro‑pegged stablecoin under the EU’s Markets in Crypto‑Assets, or MiCA, framework.

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Qivalis, based in Amsterdam, is working toward regulatory approval from the Dutch central bank and aims to operate as an electronic money institution, with CEO Jan‑Oliver Sell calling a native euro stablecoin “a major turning point for digital commerce and financial innovation in Europe.” The group’s stated goal is to become the “interface between blockchain and the euro” and the default euro token across exchanges, custodians and DeFi platforms, a direct attempt to head off “digital dollarization” from dollar‑linked tokens like USDT and USDC.

Lescure’s comments also land against a tougher French line on non‑euro stablecoins, with the Bank of France recently calling for stricter limits on foreign stablecoin payments under MiCA to mitigate systemic risk. European regulators have warned that widespread use of non‑EU stablecoins inside the bloc could undermine monetary policy, pushing authorities to explore ways of tightening rules on large dollar‑based tokens even as they open the door to euro projects.

The broader European shift is already visible across the banking sector, with euro stablecoin projects moving from “education and risk‑understanding” into concrete launch preparations as MiCA’s unified regime reduces regulatory uncertainty. For France, backing Qivalis and euro stablecoins is an attempt to ensure that when on‑chain settlement volumes rival traditional card networks, it is the euro—rather than the dollar—that anchors European rails, in both payments and tokenized assets.

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Related crypto.news coverage includes a recent story on how stablecoins are tipped to power global settlement, an explainer on what infrastructure companies use to add stablecoin payments, and a regional look at how firms like Stables and Mansa are stitching together Asia’s missing stablecoin rails.

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Payward’s $550M Bitnomial deal aims to lock up U.S. crypto derivatives plumbing

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Harvard endowment tilts harder into Bitcoin ETFs than Google stock

Kraken parent Payward will buy Bitnomial for up to $550M, adding a full CFTC derivatives stack just as Deutsche Börse’s $200M stake backs its U.S. build‑out.

Summary

  • Payward, Kraken’s parent, plans to buy 100% of U.S. crypto derivatives venue Bitnomial for up to $550 million in cash and stock, pending CFTC approvals in H1 2026.
  • Bitnomial is the first crypto‑native platform to hold all three key U.S. derivatives licenses — DCM, DCO and FCM — giving Payward a vertically integrated, onshore futures and clearing stack.
  • The move follows Deutsche Börse’s $200 million investment for a 1.5% stake in Payward, valuing Kraken at about $13.3 billion and underscoring Wall Street’s bet on its derivatives build‑out.

Payward Inc., the parent company of crypto exchange Kraken, has agreed to acquire Chicago‑based crypto derivatives venue Bitnomial in a deal worth up to $550 million in cash and stock, further accelerating its push into U.S. regulated futures and options. The companies expect the transaction to close in the first half of 2026, subject to customary regulatory approvals from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and other U.S. authorities.

Bitnomial is the first crypto‑native operator to assemble the full CFTC derivatives stack, running a Designated Contract Market, a Derivatives Clearing Organization and a Futures Commission Merchant under one roof. According to Bitnomial’s own materials, its exchange and clearinghouse support “leveraged spot, perpetuals, futures, options, and prediction markets, all on one CFTC‑regulated exchange with crypto margin and settlement,” giving Payward an immediate onshore home for products that previously leaned on offshore venues.

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Under the plan, Payward will plug Bitnomial’s trading and clearing infrastructure into Kraken, NinjaTrader and Payward Services, offering banks, brokerages and fintechs a single API into CFTC‑regulated crypto derivatives. Kraken has already been expanding in this direction; in a prior crypto.news story it acquired CFTC‑regulated Small Exchange for about $100 million to secure a DCM license, and later used that footprint to launch U.S. regulated derivatives tied to CME‑listed futures.

The Bitnomial deal lands just days after German exchange operator Deutsche Börse agreed to buy a 1.5% fully diluted stake in Payward for $200 million, in a transaction that values Kraken at roughly $13.3 billion. Deutsche Börse said the partnership is meant to “deepen” its role in regulated crypto, tokenized markets and derivatives, with a focus on “enhanced liquidity for institutional clients across geographies,” effectively giving Europe’s largest exchange group a front‑row seat in Kraken’s derivatives build‑out.

Regulators have also been preparing the ground for this shift. CFTC Commissioner Caroline Pham has pushed to bring leveraged spot crypto trading and perpetual‑style products onshore under full DCM and DCO oversight, arguing they can be offered safely if “brought into our markets under well‑defined rules and supervision.” In that context, Bitnomial’s December 2025 launch of the first‑ever leveraged retail spot crypto market under CFTC jurisdiction — which CEO Luke Hoersten called “a watershed moment for U.S. crypto markets” — looks like a dress rehearsal for the infrastructure Payward is now buying.

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For institutional order flow, the battle increasingly turns on who controls the cleanest regulatory pipe: the combination of licenses, clearing and prime‑style services that let banks and asset managers trade crypto derivatives without touching offshore platforms. With Bitnomial’s stack and Deutsche Börse’s capital, Payward is positioning Kraken as a CME‑style hub for digital asset futures, options and leveraged spot inside the U.S., echoing its broader strategy to bridge tokenized assets, equities and derivatives through initiatives like its xStocks platform.

In addition, Kraken’s derivatives and market‑structure push includes stories on its U.S. derivatives rollout, the Small Exchange acquisition, and Deutsche Börse’s $200 million stake in Payward.

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SEC’s new podcast signals softer crypto tone under Atkins, Peirce and Uyeda

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SEC’s new podcast signals softer crypto tone under Atkins, Peirce and Uyeda

SEC Chair Paul Atkins launches “Material Matters,” with Hester Peirce and Mark Uyeda using the debut to pitch a more pro‑innovation crypto stance and clearer rulemaking.

Summary

  • SEC Chair Paul Atkins has launched “Material Matters,” a new agency podcast, using the first episode to spotlight a more openly pro‑innovation message for markets, including crypto.
  • Commissioner Hester Peirce said she wants the U.S. to be “the place where people want to innovate whether it’s in crypto or something else,” while Mark Uyeda warned against straying from the SEC’s core responsibilities.
  • The messaging caps a broader shift that includes a Uyeda‑led crypto task force and Trump‑era executive orders on digital assets, which together aim to replace Gensler‑style enforcement heavy‑handedness with clearer, engagement‑driven rules.

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission has rolled out “Material Matters with SEC Chairman Paul Atkins,” a new official podcast the chair says will give the public “an inside look at the SEC’s vital work and its implications for our economy.” The first episode, released on April 15, features Commissioners Mark Uyeda and Hester Peirce outlining 2026 priorities.

SEC leans into ‘Material Matters’ and innovation messaging

Peirce told Atkins that “we do want to make this the place where people want to innovate whether it’s in crypto or something else,” adding that the SEC must “send the message to people that we will work with you when there are ambiguities about how the law applies.” She acknowledged there have been “a lot of ambiguities in connection with crypto which is a new technology that does things in new ways,” language that echoes her long‑standing push for more open, “predictable” rules rather than case‑by‑case enforcement.

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Uyeda, who has previously criticized what he called a “disaster” approach to digital assets under former chair Gary Gensler, used the new platform to argue that the SEC needs to refocus on its statutory mission rather than sprawling rule‑sets and headline‑driven crackdowns. In earlier remarks, he pledged to abandon the “full‑throttle, broad‑scope regulatory approach” of the prior era in favor of “a slower more traditional approach to rulemaking,” signaling that crypto is now more likely to be handled through transparent processes than surprise lawsuits.

The podcast arrives on top of a structural reset that began when Uyeda, then acting chair, created an agency‑wide Crypto Task Force in January 2025 and asked Peirce to lead it. According to that announcement, the group’s mandate is “developing a comprehensive and clear regulatory framework” for crypto assets and moving away from an enforcement‑first strategy that had produced “confusion about what is legal” and “an environment hostile to innovation and conducive to fraud.”

Peirce’s task force quickly repealed the controversial Staff Accounting Bulletin 121, which had made it difficult for U.S. banks to custody digital assets on their balance sheets, and rolled out a 10‑point roadmap to address token classifications, disclosures and exchange registration. In parallel, President Donald Trump signed an executive order titled “Strengthening American Leadership in Digital Financial Technology,” instructing agencies, including the SEC, to support “responsible growth and use of digital assets, blockchain technology, and related technologies” to secure U.S. leadership.

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Indeed, that shift has already translated into concrete changes such as downsizing the SEC’s dedicated crypto enforcement unit, pausing high‑profile cases against exchanges like Binance and Coinbase, and convening public roundtables on token rules instead of litigating them first. Opinion pieces on the new U.S. focus on tokenization‑friendly accounting have framed the emerging regime as an attempt to combine investor protection with a clear path for tokenized assets and crypto companies to build onshore, a goal “Material Matters” now appears designed to sell directly to both markets and voters.

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X’s Cashtags Feature Drives $1B Trading Volume

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X’s Cashtags Feature Drives $1B Trading Volume

Social media platform X has already generated roughly $1 billion in trading volume from its new Cashtags feature, which allows users to view stock and crypto data directly from the app.

In a post to X on Friday, the company’s head of product, Nikita Bier, said the estimated $1 billion in trading volume was reached after launching on Tuesday night, citing data aggregated from X’s trading pilot.

The new feature — currently only available to US and Canadian users on iPhones — is part of Elon Musk’s vision of turning X into an “everything app,” including peer-to-peer payments and e-commerce.

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X sees more than 550 million users each month, positioning it as one of the largest social media platforms globally and giving it the ability to compete with established financial information providers in delivering market-related content and data.

Cashtags allow users to select a specific asset or smart contract address when posting a ticker, and tapping a tag displays live price charts and related posts.

Online brokerage Wealthsimple partnered with X to integrate the Cashtag feature, enabling Canadians to click on crypto and stock tickers and be taken directly to its trading platform.

The Cashtags feature hasn’t been integrated with a US brokerage yet.

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X Money is coming too

Musk’s company also has X Money in the pipeline, a peer-to-peer payments system that seeks to offer yield-bearing accounts, a cashback debit card and other perks.

X rolled out an external beta of X Money in early March, showing payments between Musk and Hollywood actor William Shatner, who played Captain Kirk in the original Star Trek series.

Related: X mulls new rules for first-time crypto posts amid tortoise scam

The integration of crypto payments into X Money remains a mystery, however.

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Over the last few years, X has secured money transmitter licenses in over 40 US states and registered with the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network to make peer-to-peer payments possible on the platform.

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