TLDR:

• Bitcoin 30-day volume delta on Binance flipped from -$145M in February to a positive +$21M today.
  
• Coinbase volume delta recovered from -$88M to +$14M, marking a shift away from February’s sell-side dominance.
  
• The Fed’s upcoming FOMC meeting carries a 99% chance of no rate change, with forward guidance as the main focus.
  
• Crypto market liquidity remains thin, meaning sustained buyer volume is still needed to confirm a breakout move.

Bitcoin is showing renewed buyer interest following a prolonged period of heavy selling pressure in February. Volume data from Binance and Coinbase reflects a gradual but measurable shift back toward buyers.

This change arrives amid escalating geopolitical tensions and a closely watched Federal Reserve meeting. Market probabilities currently point to a 99% chance of no rate change at the upcoming FOMC gathering. Risk assets broadly remain under pressure across global financial markets.

Volume Delta Recovers on Major Crypto Exchanges

Crypto analyst Darkfost recently flagged a notable change in volume dynamics across major trading platforms. In a post on X, Darkfost noted that on February 16, the 30-day moving average volume delta on Binance stood at a deeply negative -$145M.

Coinbase recorded a similar reading of -$88M during that same period. Sellers dominated both exchanges with clear conviction at the time.

Both retail and institutional participants were aligned on the sell side throughout most of February. That shared positioning reflected a broader risk-off tone sweeping through financial markets at the time.

Equities and commodities also exhibited toppish market structures during this stretch. Selling pressure across multiple asset classes was broadly coordinated.

As of now, those same averages have moved back into positive territory on both platforms. Binance currently shows approximately +$21M, while Coinbase registers around +$14M in buyer-side volume.

The recovery remains modest but represents a clear departure from prior conditions. It marks the first meaningful reversal of February’s dominant sell-side trend.

Bitcoin’s relative resilience during this period adds further context to the volume shift. Unlike equities and commodities, it held up comparatively well despite mounting macro pressures.

That outperformance continues to draw attention from market watchers and experienced traders. The asset attracted renewed buyer interest even within an unfavorable risk environment.

FOMC Guidance and Thin Liquidity Shape the Path Forward

The Federal Reserve’s upcoming meeting presents another layer of uncertainty for risk asset markets. Current probabilities place the likelihood of no rate change at roughly 99%.

Traders are therefore shifting attention away from the decision itself toward forward guidance. Any indication of future rate hikes could weigh heavily on broader market sentiment.

If the Fed reintroduces rate hike language, it would likely dampen risk appetite across financial markets. Bitcoin, as a risk-sensitive asset, would not be entirely shielded from such a development.

The tone of forward guidance carries more weight than the rate decision itself this cycle. Market participants will scrutinize every statement from Fed officials very closely.

Liquidity across the crypto market remains relatively thin at this point. That thinness creates conditions where price moves can become more exaggerated in either direction.

A sustained increase in buyer volume would be necessary to support any convincing upside breakout. The current improvement in volume delta has not yet reached that confirmation threshold.

That said, the trajectory of buyer activity is moving in the right direction for Bitcoin. As Darkfost noted, continued momentum in buying volumes could gradually support price action.

A breakout from the current trading range would require this trend to hold and deepen further. Market participants will be watching volume data closely over the sessions ahead.

Bitcoin price briefly surged to a six-week high of $75,937 on Tuesday, as over $330 million in short positions were liquidated in the past 24 hours.

According to data from crypto.news, Bitcoin (BTC) price touched an intraday high of $75,937 on March 17, morning Asian time, as it broke past the $75,000 resistance for the first time since early February. The bounce past the key psychological level triggered a market-wide rally with altcoins such as MemeCore (M), FET, and Zcash (ZEC) leading gains with double-digit rallies on the day.

Bitcoin’s surge led to large-scale liquidations across leveraged crypto markets. According to data from CoinGlass, nearly $498 million was liquidated, with over $330 million coming from short positions as traders closed bearish positions opened during the early February market sell-off. Bitcoin alone specifically accounted for $118 million of those short liquidations.

Another major tailwind that supported today’s rebound is the return of consistent inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs, signaling strong institutional demand. Data compiled by SoSoValue shows that the 12 U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs drew in over $200 million over the past day, extending their inflow streak to 6 straight days that drew in nearly $1 billion in total.

Investors are also viewing Bitcoin as a safe-haven asset amid geopolitical tension in the Middle East, especially since traditional safe-haven assets such as gold and silver have shown relative weakness in recent days.

On the daily chart, Bitcoin price seems to be forming a rounded bottom pattern, a typical reversal pattern in technical analysis. The 20-day SMA is closing in on a bullish crossover with the 50-day SMA, a sign that short-term momentum is turning positive.

For now, the next key resistance level that traders are watching currently lies at $79,000 highs seen during February, and aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level.

A sharp breakout from this level could push prices to as high as $89,850, which would be the neckline of the double bottom formed. On the contrary, failure to hold $72,000 support could lead to a retest of lower levels.

At press time, Bitcoin price was hovering around $74,000, still holding onto 6% gains over the weekly period.

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission has put forward a proposal which, according to SEC commissioner Hester Peirce, could help clear up years of confusion around how a key broker-dealer rule applies across markets.

On Monday, the SEC proposed an amendment to Rule 15c2-11 that would limit reporting requirements for broker-dealers in the over-the-counter market to equity securities only, effectively reversing the broader interpretation introduced in 2021.

The SEC Rule 15c2-11 was first introduced in 1971 to ensure broker-dealers maintain up-to-date issuer information before they can publish over-the-counter quotes.

By placing obligations for firms to review and maintain current information about an issuer, the rule was designed to reduce risks in thinly traded markets, particularly in penny stocks.

Without this information, a broker-dealer is not allowed to initiate or resume quotations for a security in OTC markets.

However, the rule was reinterpreted in 2021 to extend beyond equities into other asset classes, and as a result, there have been questions around whether it can apply to crypto assets if they are classified as securities.

The SEC’s proposal would limit the rule’s scope to equity securities.

As such, broker-dealers won’t be required to apply these reporting requirements to crypto assets, even in cases where questions around their classification as securities remain unresolved.

This could make it easier for broker-dealers to support crypto trading and quote digital assets without having to rely on disclosure standards that do not align with how these assets function.

A public comment period has been opened where the commission is seeking feedback on whether the definition of equity securities should extend to crypto assets and how the rule should apply going forward.

According to Commissioner Peirce, who also leads the agency’s crypto task force, the proposal could help address confusion created by the earlier interpretation.

“By its terms, the text of Rule 15c2-11 always has applied to quotations of a ‘security.’ Market participants and other observers including me, however, understood the rule to apply only to quotations of over-the-counter (‘OTC’) equity securities,”

However, it must be noted that there is still no final decision on whether “equity securities” could include crypto assets.

Peirce said she would closely watch “questions about the definition of ‘equity security,’ the rule’s application to crypto assets, and the appropriate next steps with respect to the formation of an ‘expert market.’”

Argentina has ordered a nationwide block of prediction market platform Polymarket, tightening its stance on what authorities describe as unlicensed online betting activity.

According to local media, a Buenos Aires court has directed regulators to move forward with enforcement after concluding that the platform operated outside the country’s legal gambling framework.

Authorities highlighted consumer protection risks among others, including the use of crypto payments, credit card deposits, and the absence of robust age or identity verification checks that could allow minors to participate.

There are also broader regulatory concerns behind this decision, tied to how prediction markets blur the line between financial speculation and gambling.

Authorities raised concerns about Polymarket’s handling of Argentina’s February inflation rate of 2.9% before the official release. Reports say the platform reportedly reversed its prediction just 15 minutes before the data was published, which authorities found suspicious.

The authorities concluded that the platform functioned as an online betting system rather than a neutral prediction market.

Subsequently, authorities asked the telecom regulator ENACOM to coordinate with internet service providers to enforce the block. Meanwhile, Google and Apple have been ordered to remove the platform’s apps, limiting access for local users.

The latest order also follows multiple complaints from entities such as the Buenos Aires City Lottery and the Argentine Chamber of Casinos and Bingos, which pushed for action against the platform.

Argentina now joins a long list of countries, notably across Europe and Latin America, that have taken action against the platform.

Last year, Colombia and Romania banned the platform, classifying it as unauthorized gambling activity within their jurisdictions.

Similar concerns have been raised across several states in the U.S., where regulators are examining whether event-based contracts offered by platforms like Polymarket fall under existing gambling or derivatives laws.

Separately, Polymarket is also facing scrutiny over its handling of markets tied to sensitive events, including contracts linked to death and violent outcomes, which have drawn criticism from lawmakers and prompted fresh legislative efforts.

XRP just reclaimed a ranking it hasn’t held in weeks, and the derivatives market suggests traders are positioning for more.

The token surged to $1.53 on Tuesday, up 11% on the week, overtaking BNB to become the fourth-largest cryptocurrency by market cap at $93.4 billion. The move broke through $1.40 resistance, per CoinDesk analytics, with trading volume exploding 125% to $3.22 billion.

Coinglass data shows XRP open interest on Binance has climbed to 353.49 million XRP as of March 17, up from 222.79 million on Oct. 24, 2025, when XRP was trading at $2.39. That’s a 59% increase in open interest while the price is 37% lower. New leveraged positions are building into the recovery rather than unwinding, which is a fundamentally different setup from the deleveraging that dominated January and February.

The Binance OI chart shows the full arc. Open interest peaked above 400 million XRP in September 2025, collapsed during the October crash that took the price from $3.65 to below $2, and spent the next four months slowly rebuilding.

The current 353 million is approaching but hasn’t yet matched those pre-crash levels, which means the market has room to add leverage before hitting the concentration that preceded the last wipeout.

Traders will likely now monitor whether the $1.50-$1.60 zone holds or becomes another failed breakout in a token that has been full of them since October. Open interest building into the move gives it more structural support than previous attempts, but XRP approaching pre-crash leverage levels at 58% below the pre-crash price is a setup that works until it doesn’t.

US-based spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds recorded their sixth day of inflows on Monday as Bitcoin rose over 12% over the period, marking the longest streak of fresh capital into the ETFs since October last year. 

Data from Farside Investors shows Bitcoin ETFs raked in $199.4 million of net inflows on Monday. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) and the Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund led with $139.4 million and $64.5 million in inflows, respectively.

The Bitwise Bitcoin ETF and Franklin Bitcoin ETF tallied inflows of $2.8 million and $2.1 million, while the VanEck Bitcoin ETF and ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF saw outflows of $6.3 million and $3.1 million, respectively.

This brings the total net inflows since March 9 to $962.8 million, coinciding with Bitcoin (BTC) rising 12.5% from $65,960 to $74,250 over the period. 

The inflow streak follows a much larger nine-day run between September and October 2025, which saw Bitcoin products tally nearly $6 billion worth of inflows.

Bitcoin was significantly higher at the time, hitting an all-time high of $126,080 during that stretch. 

The recent rise in Bitcoin ETF inflows and the cryptocurrency’s spot price comes amid ongoing uncertainty between the US and Iran and volatility in the oil markets.

Rumors of progress have helped Bitcoin

However, blockchain analytics platform Santiment said rumors swirling about progress being made by the US, Iran and Israel have been a contributing factor to Bitcoin soaring above the $74,400 mark for the first time in six weeks.

“This bullish momentum has been enough to push FOMO to its highest level since January 2nd,” Santiment noted.

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“In spite of global uncertainty at the moment, traders are once again seeing crypto as a sector with rise potential in the coming weeks and months.”

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index score, a measure of Bitcoin and crypto market sentiment, also increased five points to 28 on Tuesday — escaping the “Extreme Fear” zone for the first time since late January.

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