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Bitcoin Rises as U.S.-Iran Tensions Escalate, Challenging Gold’s Safe Haven Dominance

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Brian Armstrong's Bold Prediction: AI Agents Will Soon Dominate Global Financial

TLDR:

  • Bitcoin moved upward against gold as U.S.-Iran tensions rose, defying traditional market flight-to-safety patterns.
  • Money rotated out of gold, silver, and stocks, with Bitcoin capturing part of that displaced capital in real time.
  • Spot Bitcoin ETFs and institutional allocation in 2026 may be reshaping how the asset responds to geopolitical stress.
  • The gold-to-Bitcoin ratio is now a key metric to watch as markets assess whether this safe haven shift is structural.

Bitcoin is drawing fresh attention as geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran escalate. Traditionally, gold has served as the go-to asset during global uncertainty.

However, recent market movements suggest a possible shift. Money appears to be rotating away from gold, silver, and equities.

Bitcoin is absorbing some of that capital. Whether this marks a structural change or a temporary trend remains to be seen.

Bitcoin Captures Flight-to-Safety Capital as Gold Loses Ground

Market observers noted an unusual pattern as U.S.-Iran tensions rose recently. Typically, investors exit risk assets and move into gold during geopolitical stress. This time, Bitcoin moved upward while gold and silver saw outflows alongside equities.

Milk Road, a widely followed crypto newsletter on X, pointed this out directly. The post noted that money was rotating out of gold, silver, and stocks, with Bitcoin catching some of the flight-to-safety bid. That behavior stands out because it rarely happens during geopolitical flare-ups.

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Bitcoin shares several core traits with gold. Both assets carry finite supply, operate without counterparty risk, and function as stores of value. However, Bitcoin offers added advantages in borderless access and instant liquidity across any geography.

In situations involving sanctions, capital controls, or cross-border asset freezes, Bitcoin becomes increasingly practical.

Investors who need access to value regardless of location or political circumstance find it more functional than physical gold in those scenarios.

Institutional Presence and ETF Access Add Weight to Bitcoin’s Safe Haven Case

The broader context of this market moment matters. The crypto landscape in 2026 looks markedly different from past cycles. Spot Bitcoin ETFs are now live, and institutional allocation to the asset class is well established.

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That institutional base changes how Bitcoin responds to macro stress. In 2022, crypto dropped sharply in risk-off environments.

Today, with deeper liquidity and broader participation, the asset may behave differently under similar conditions.

Milk Road’s post suggested watching the gold-to-Bitcoin ratio closely. If Bitcoin holds or gains ground while geopolitical stress remains elevated, it could signal a more durable shift in how markets treat the asset.

The $100,000 price level remains the target many analysts reference. Reaching it through a geopolitical risk rotation rather than speculative momentum would represent an uncommon path in Bitcoin’s history.

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That said, no rotation narrative carries certainty. Bitcoin has historically sold off alongside other assets when risk appetite collapsed broadly.

The next few weeks will determine whether current patterns hold or reverse as the situation between the U.S. and Iran develops further.

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Crypto World

Governments Need CBDCs To Improve Financial Inclusion Among Citizens

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Governments Need CBDCs To Improve Financial Inclusion Among Citizens

Opinion by: Xin Yan, co-founder and CEO of Sign.

Financial exclusion remains one of the most persistent challenges for national governments. World Bank data highlights how more than 1.3 billion adults remain unbanked, without access to a financial account. These people rely on cash, creating a ‘cash-digital divide’, which excludes them from the formal economy.

To bridge the divide, governments need to promote CBDCs actively. As a trusted, risk-free alternative to physical cash, CBDCs are ideal instruments for the financially excluded demographic. With a seamless entry point to the financial ecosystem, mass adoption of CBDCs is a vital catalyst and a foundational pillar for achieving universal financial inclusion.

Wider access to financial institutions is key to stimulating a country’s growth. As more people invest and participate in the formal economy, the total capital base will expand, leading to greater financial stability. Further, bringing people within the formal economy ensures the benefits of policy rate changes reach the masses, bolsters regulatory oversight and prevents fraud.

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Most people within the low-income demographic depend on cash payments because cash is easy to use, accepted everywhere, does not incur transaction charges and functions as a trusted medium of exchange. 

The infrastructure needed to handle cash creates a gap between the unbanked population and the formal economy.

Financial inclusion as government policy

Establishing physical touchpoints to manage, store and handle cash at remote locations is resource-intensive. That’s why most service providers back out of offering cash-dependent financial services due to the high operational expenses.

Cash transactions also don’t leave a digital record, leading to an information vacuum for financial service providers. Consequently, institutions club the entire unbanked population as a high-risk group, denying access to insurance and credit markets.

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Related: US lawmakers warn temporary CBDC ban isn’t enough, demand ‘permanent’ block

The lack of access to affordable digital payments and the absence of transaction history erode financial well-being and hinder a country’s economic growth. In this scenario, widespread access to formal financial services becomes an important government agenda.

Some central banks consider financial inclusion to be a key component of their mandate and adopt policies to ensure universal access to the formal economy. To this end, some central banks have considered issuing CBDCs to fast-track the process of developing an inclusive financial ecosystem.

CBDCs can accelerate financial inclusion

According to a 2023 study by Kosse and Mattei referenced by the IMF, about 60% of emerging and low-income countries consider financial inclusion to be one of the top three motivations for issuing a CBDC. The high confidence in CBDC stems from its properties to become the ideal bridge to the formal economy for the unbanked demographic.

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Source: BIS Central Bank Surveys on CBDCs and Crypto.

CBDCs can operate via a two-tier distribution model. This model allows both commercial banks and non-banking entities to reach the financially excluded demographic. Besides expanding the financial ecosystem’s reach, non-banking intermediaries lower the high overhead costs of legacy branch-based banking.

As a significant portion of the unbanked population doesn’t have stable internet or mobile connectivity, offline transaction support is necessary. Experts have noted how CBDCs are being designed to support robust offline capabilities. Exploring high-potential technologies for short-range communication ensures resilient CBDC payments in remote areas where there is limited connectivity.

As a public-sector digital infrastructure, CBDCs are designed to prioritize public welfare over commercial profit. Stripping away the bloated overhead of legacy intermediary layers, CBDCs enable a highly optimized cost structure.

Instead of burdensome charges, users benefit from marginalized transaction costs that are de minimis, ensuring the network remains both accessible to the unbanked and economically resilient for the sovereign issuer.

Moreover, the underbanked population is more likely to trust CBDCs as a digital alternative to cash because they are aided by a credible institution. Unlike the liquidity constraints of private financial entities, CBDCs will always remain a direct liability of the central bank, making them somewhat safe.

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Most importantly, CBDCs provide a portal for the financially excluded population to participate in the formal economy. It happens through the smooth exchange of transaction data between CBDCs and the broader financial services industry.

CBDCs can support privacy-preserving data sharing, allowing users to voluntarily share their transaction history to build credit scores to access savings, credit, and insurance services.

In the absence of formal credit history, lenders can use CBDC transaction data as a legitimate source to evaluate financial behavior and creditworthiness. Service providers would therefore be able to measure a customer’s risk profile and verify identity to offer credit and other financial products.

Toward CBDC mass adoption

CBDC usage is subject to digital literacy, electricity infrastructure, and access to hardware. Data shows that nations have already made enormous progress on all these fronts.

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The 2025 Global Findex Database from the World Bank Group has reported that 86% of adults now own a mobile phone. Also, 79% of adults now have a bank account, and 61% are making digital payments across low and middle-income economies.

Source: Global Findex Database, 2025.

The report interestingly states that “despite high mobile phone ownership and growth in account ownership, 1.3 billion people still lack financial accounts.” This group of people have phones, personal ID, and SIM cards, which are necessary for a digitally enabled account. 

Yet, they remain financially excluded from the formal economy.

In this situation, CBDCs remain one of the primary products that can offer safe, affordable, and convenient financial services to consumers.

Central banks and national governments must adopt a holistic approach and use CBDCs to help the financially inexperienced demographic integrate with the formal economy.

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Opinion by: Xin Yan, co-founder and CEO of Sign.