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Bitcoin Shorts Hit Extreme, Last Time BTC Exploded 83%

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Bitcoin Shorts Note a Jump

Bitcoin price is attempting another breakout toward $70,000 after weeks of choppy consolidation. BTC trades at $69,815 at publication, sitting just below the $70,610 resistance level. The largest cryptocurrency is trying to recover recent losses, yet mixed on-chain and derivatives signals present an uncertain short-term outlook.

Market participants are closely watching this psychological threshold. A sustained move above $70,000 could shift sentiment decisively. However, persistent bearish positioning suggests that volatility may intensify before a clear trend emerges.

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Bitcoin Shorts Resemble The Past

Aggregated funding rate data across major crypto exchanges shows an extreme surge in short positioning. Current negative funding levels are the deepest since August 2024. That period ultimately marked a significant Bitcoin bottom.

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In August 2024, traders crowded into downside bets as funding rates plunged. Instead of continuing lower, Bitcoin reversed sharply. The reversal triggered widespread short liquidations and fueled an approximately 83% rally over the following four months.

Want more token insights like this? Sign up for Editor Harsh Notariya’s Daily Crypto Newsletter here.

Bitcoin Shorts Note a Jump
Bitcoin Shorts Note a Jump. Source: Santiment

Deeply negative funding rates signal heavy bearish positioning and widespread fear, uncertainty, and doubt (FUD). While this setup does not guarantee immediate upside, it creates a fragile structure. If price rises, forced short-covering could amplify volatility and accelerate upward momentum.

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Bitcoin Towards Capitulation

The Net Unrealized Profit and Loss, or NUPL, indicator has returned to the Hope/Fear zone near 0.18. This reading shows that profit cushions among holders are thin. When NUPL enters this regime, market behavior tends to become reactive.

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Historically, declines into this zone often preceded extended weakness. Panic selling typically intensifies before a durable bottom forms. Unless capitulation resets sentiment, Bitcoin may remain vulnerable to deeper pullbacks before stabilizing.

Bitcoin NUPL
Bitcoin NUPL. Source: Glassnode

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What Does The Short-Term Outlook Look Like?

Short-term technical cues suggest improving momentum. The Chaikin Money Flow, which measures capital inflows and outflows, is approaching the zero line. A confirmed move into positive territory would signal renewed demand for Bitcoin.

Simultaneously, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator is nearing a bullish crossover. A confirmed crossover would indicate a shift from bearish to bullish momentum. However, early signals require validation through sustained price strength.

Bitcoin Netflows And Market Momentum
Bitcoin Netflows And Market Momentum. Source: TradingView

Even with improving indicators, broader sentiment remains cautious. Shorts are unlikely to close voluntarily under weak conditions. This dynamic increases the probability that a price-driven liquidation event becomes the catalyst for recovery.

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BTC Price Needs a Strong Push

Bitcoin trades at $69,815 and remains capped below $70,610 resistance. The $70,000 level represents a critical psychological barrier. A decisive close above this threshold could trigger renewed bullish momentum and attract fresh capital inflows.

However, bearish pressure persists in derivatives markets. Continued dominance of short contracts could keep BTC below $70,000. A breakdown below $65,156 support may trigger long liquidations and intensify downside volatility.

Bitcoin Price Analysis.
Bitcoin Price Analysis. Source: TradingView

If Bitcoin secures strong investor support and overcomes selling pressure above $70,000, upside targets emerge. A rally toward $73,499 could develop quickly.

Sustained strength may extend gains toward $76,685, invalidating the bearish thesis and confirming a broader recovery attempt.

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Crypto World

Genius Group Dumps Bitcoin Treasury Amid Revenue Surge

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Genius Group Dumps Bitcoin Treasury Amid Revenue Surge

AI-powered Bitcoin treasury and education company Genius Group revealed on Tuesday that it sold the remainder of its Bitcoin in Q1 to pay off debt, adding to a recent wave of companies offloading assets amid a crypto bear market. 

“The company will recommence building its Bitcoin Treasury when it believes market conditions are more favorable,” it stated. 

The move appears to go against its “Bitcoin first” strategy, which it touted in November 2024, vowing at the time to commit 90% or more of its current and future reserves to be held in Bitcoin. 

Genius Group held 84 BTC worth around $5.7 million as of March 2026, but holdings have declined since April 2025, around the time it was temporarily barred by a US court from expanding its Bitcoin treasury. It resumed buying in June of that year.

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The recent announcement came as Genius Group reported strong results in Q1, with revenue up 171% year-on-year to $3.3 million and gross profit up 228% to $2 million. The company swung from a $500,000 operating loss in Q1 2025 to a $2.7 million net profit in Q1 2026.

Genius Group BTC holdings have now fallen to zero. Source: Bitcoin Treasuries

Bitcoin treasuries liquidating in 2026 

Genius Group is not the only Bitcoin-related company to offload assets in recent months. 

MARA Holdings sold 15,133 BTC for around $1.1 billion in March, dropping its treasury to 38,689 BTC and down to the third largest corporate Bitcoin treasury, behind Twenty One Capital. 

The proceeds were used to repurchase approximately $1 billion of convertible senior notes and the remainder for general corporate purposes. 

Related: Bhutan offloads another $37M in Bitcoin as sovereign wallet shrinks

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Meanwhile, mining company Bitdeer liquidated its entire stash of 943 BTC and sold newly mined coins, cutting corporate holdings to zero in February.

Other notable recent sales include Bitcoin miner Cango Inc., which sold 4,451 BTC, and AI tech firm GD Culture Group, confirming authorization of the sale of some of its 7,500 BTC treasury in February. 

Stalwart Strategy keeps on buying 

Michael Saylor’s Strategy, the world’s largest corporate Bitcoin treasury, has bucked the trend and has continued buying Bitcoin, dominating purchases this year.

“Strip out Strategy, and the rest of the ecosystem’s buying pace has collapsed,” reported BTC mining analytics outlet BitcoinMiningStock in March.

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The firm’s last purchase was 1,031 BTC on March 23, and it has accumulated 89,581 BTC worth around $6.1 billion at current market prices so far this year, according to the Saylor Tracker. 

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