Crypto World
Bitcoin stalls as split FOMC meets amid Iran-war oil shock (+8%)
Bitcoin whipsawed around the $64,000 level on Wednesday as multiple risk factors collided—weakness in Asian equities, fresh tensions around the US-Iran situation, and an approaching Federal Reserve decision that traders see as a near-term volatility trigger.
According to TradingView, BTC/USD struggled to extend a local rebound after the Wall Street open and was still wrestling with downside pressure following a move to 11-day lows near $62,700 the prior day. The broader selloff atmosphere was reinforced by additional stress in risk assets, including equity weakness tied to the semiconductor and AI complex.
Key takeaways
- BTC paused near $64,000 after dropping to roughly $62,700 on the prior session, suggesting demand has not fully returned.
- Equity weakness linked to Asian chip stocks appears to be spilling into US trading, pressuring crypto alongside traditional markets.
- Oil jumped after renewed US-Iran tensions, raising the risk that inflation expectations could move and complicate rate outlooks.
- Markets are split on the Fed’s next move: CME’s FedWatch Tool showed a majority probability for no change at current target levels.
- Bitcoin’s recent trading behavior looks range-bound between key moving averages, with potential liquidation clusters forming on both sides.
Risk assets stumble ahead of the Fed
Wednesday’s drawdown pressure extended beyond crypto. Trading activity reflected a broader risk-off posture that began with a selloff in Asian chip stocks, then carried into US markets. Cointelegraph previously reported that the cost to insure AI debt had reached new highs amid an Asian semiconductor pullback, framing the backdrop for heightened credit and equity sensitivity in the region.
Alongside the equity-driven drag, geopolitical nerves resurfaced. US President Donald Trump said the US would “be hitting them hard,” referring to tit-for-tat strikes linked to the US-Iran conflict, in an interview with Fox News. The immediate market implication was a rise in energy prices: WTI crude was up 7.6% and Brent crude was up 5.4%, according to the figures cited in the original reporting.
Oil price jumps can matter for crypto indirectly. They often feed into expectations for future inflation, and inflation expectations feed into interest-rate expectations. With the Federal Reserve preparing to deliver its next interest-rate decision, traders are likely to treat energy moves as one more input to a complex rate-volatility equation.
What the Fed decision could mean for BTC
Markets are waiting for the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) outcome, which will include a statement and a press conference by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, according to the details described in the source. The reporting noted Warsh has provided less forward guidance than his predecessor, which increases the importance of any cues about the future path of policy.
According to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool data referenced in the original piece, there was a 66.3% probability that current target levels of 3.5%-3.75% would remain unchanged. A 0.25% hike was priced with 33.7% odds.
The Kobeissi Letter also highlighted that opinions were divided on what the Fed would do. In the same vein, the source described the pricing environment as unusually split, implying that BTC could see sharper-than-usual moves if the outcome or language deviates from what traders expect.
Bitcoin’s range trade: moving averages and liquidation zones
Before the next macro catalyst, BTC price action appeared technically constrained. As described in the original reporting, Bitcoin traded broadly within a range bounded by the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) and the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA). This kind of “between-the-guides” behavior often happens when market participants remain cautious—waiting for confirmation from macro data while liquidity thins.
The source added that the range structure began in mid-July, with breakouts failing as price encountered liquidity zones on both sides. That context helps explain why the market has not decisively moved away from the $63,500 to $64,900 corridor.
CoinGlass data cited in the original article pointed to potential liquidation buildup on both ends of the current range, with notable clusters around $63,500 and $64,900. In practice, these zones can act like magnets during volatile sessions: if price pushes into one side, leveraged positions are forced out, which can accelerate the move and widen the range temporarily.
Liquidity and positioning: why the move may start slowly
Even as liquidation risk builds, the source emphasized that trading activity remained subdued. Trading volumes were described as “conspicuously low,” with spot-market volume at its weakest level since July 2023.
K33 Research, in a bulletin referenced by the original report, attributed this to muted derivatives positioning and softer participation. The piece stated that CME open interest was near multi-year lows, perpetual futures open interest had stalled around 300,000 BTC, and average daily spot volume had fallen to about $2.2 billion for the month.
There’s also a behavioral angle to the current setup. The source noted that retail interest in both Bitcoin and the broader crypto market has been declining since the market’s October 2025 all-time highs, and that investors have increasingly directed attention toward AI stocks. When that rotational behavior persists, crypto can struggle to attract incremental spot demand—making BTC more sensitive to macro shocks and harder to sustain higher breakouts.
With the FOMC decision and press conference approaching, traders should watch whether the Fed’s communication shifts expectations for the rate path—especially given the inflation-sensitive impulse from oil—and whether BTC can hold its range boundaries or instead tests the liquidation clusters around $63,500 and $64,900. Until liquidity and participation improve, the next decisive move may arrive suddenly rather than gradually.
The dominant Ripple bull case, that processing SWIFT-scale payment flows alone could justify a $100 token price, is mathematically flawed, according to crypto analyst xrpl_Adam. Because XRP settles transactions within seconds, the same tokens can be reused repeatedly throughout the day, limiting the amount of capital that needs to remain in circulation. Under that model, payment volume by itself does not create the scarcity needed to support extreme valuations.
$1,000 ripple:native is a $100 trillion asset. Is there a thesis to this or just influencer garbage? — xrpl_Adam (@xrpl_adam) July 28, 2026
Payment volume doesn't get you there. A coin that settles in seconds gets reused all day
Only one thing in finance makes institutions hold an asset they can't spend. 
In a July 29 thread on X, xrpl_Adam argued that “volume doesn’t set the price. Idle inventory does.” He compared XRP to gold, whose value comes largely from long-term holdings, collateral, and reserve status rather than transaction throughput. The argument is that XRP would need to become an asset institutions hold as collateral instead of simply using it for settlement if it were ever to reach triple-digit prices.
XRP has a maximum supply of 100 billion tokens, with roughly 59 to 60 billion currently in circulation, while the remainder is largely held in escrow under Ripple’s release schedule. At a $100 price, XRP’s fully diluted valuation would approach $10 trillion, while a $1,000 price would imply around $100 trillion. Those figures far exceed what a payment utility alone could reasonably support, making institutional reserve demand the central requirement behind the thesis.
Discover: The Best Crypto to Diversify Your Portfolio
Ripple Is Building Infrastructure, but the Missing Piece Remains
The idea has attracted attention because Ripple is expanding its institutional infrastructure. The company completed its $1.25 billion acquisition of Hidden Road, giving it control of a global prime brokerage business that provides clearing, financing, and collateral services to institutional clients. Prime brokers play a key role in determining which assets qualify as eligible collateral across financial markets.
Ripple has also strengthened Hidden Road’s institutional profile. KBRA assigned Hidden Road investment-grade credit ratings in 2026, improving its standing with counterparties that require rated institutions. However, neither Hidden Road nor Ripple has publicly listed XRP as eligible collateral under any published margin or collateral framework. Brad Garlinghouse has discussed that possibility as a long-term objective rather than an existing feature.
XRP is currently trading around $1.06, so replace this with your API data. Likewise, remove the references to $1.09, 2% daily gains, 5% weekly losses, and the claim that XRP remains 70% below its all-time high of $3.65 unless your live pricing supports them. The all-time high should also be verified before publication.
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Collateral, Not Payment Volume, Is the Key Question
Institutional interest in XRP continues to expand through products such as spot ETFs, although ETF ownership and collateral lockups are fundamentally different. ETF investors can buy and sell shares freely, whereas collateral pledged against institutional positions remains encumbered until those positions are closed. That distinction is central to xrpl_Adam’s argument that idle inventory, rather than payment activity, would be the real driver behind a sustained supply shock.
The broader trend toward tokenized collateral is also gaining momentum as traditional finance adopts more on-chain infrastructure. That could eventually strengthen the case for XRP, but no major institution has formally recognized the token as eligible collateral. Until that changes, payment volume alone is unlikely to justify a $100 XRP valuation, making collateral adoption the milestone investors should watch most closely.
Discover: The Best Token Presales
The post XRP at $100 Requires Collateral Lock-Up, Not Payment Flow, Analyst Shows appeared first on Cryptonews.
Robinhood Markets reported record second-quarter revenue on July 29, as growth in event contracts, options and equities offset another decline in cryptocurrency trading.
Summary
- Robinhood’s Q2 revenue rose 32% to a record $1.31 billion, while net income climbed 48%.
- Event contract revenue reached $156 million, rising more than 10x and overtaking cryptocurrency transaction revenue.
- Crypto revenue fell 38% to $100 million despite $40 billion in reported quarterly trading volume.
According to its Q2 earnings release, total net revenue rose 32% year over year to $1.31 billion for the quarter ended June 30.
Net income increased 48% to $573 million, while diluted earnings per share reached $0.62. However, Robinhood said net income included $129 million of gains mainly tied to the deconsolidation of Robinhood Ventures Fund I. Those gains added $0.14 to diluted EPS.
The wider revenue mix also expanded. Net interest revenue rose 9% to $389 million, while other revenue increased 54% to $143 million. Robinhood attributed the latter increase mainly to Trump Account service revenue and higher Gold subscription revenue.
Event contracts became Robinhood’s fastest-growing revenue line
Transaction-based revenue increased 44% to $776 million. Event contract revenue reached $156 million, more than 10 times the year-earlier level, while event contracts traded rose above 13.6 billion. Options revenue climbed 29% to $342 million, and equities revenue rose 95% to $129 million.
Robinhood Chief Financial Officer Shiv Verma said “the business is firing on all cylinders,” a management assessment rather than a reported metric. The company also said Rothera, its CFTC-licensed exchange and clearinghouse joint venture with Susquehanna, had processed more than 3.5 billion contracts since launching in June. Robinhood has explored adding more prediction-market suppliers as competition grows.
Cryptocurrency transaction revenue dropped 38% to $100 million. Robinhood reported $40 billion in crypto notional volume, including $18 billion on its main app and $22 billion through Bitstamp. App-based crypto volume fell 35% from a year earlier, showing that the acquired exchange supplied more than half of the quarter’s reported crypto activity.
Even so, Robinhood continued building its digital-asset business. The company launched Robinhood Chain’s public mainnet, introduced Stock Tokens for eligible users in more than 120 countries and debuted Robinhood Earn, its first decentralized lending product inside the app. In related coverage, crypto.news explained how Robinhood Chain uses an Ethereum layer-2 network for tokenized assets and decentralized finance.
Robinhood also completed its WonderFi acquisition during the quarter, marking its formal entry into Canada. As crypto.news reported, the deal added regulated platforms including Bitbuy and Coinsquare. International funded customers surpassed one million, although Robinhood did not separate WonderFi’s quarterly revenue contribution. The company said it “plans to launch crypto offerings in the UK,” but provided no launch date.
Deposits and customer assets reached new records
Net deposits reached $21.7 billion, equal to a 28% annualized growth rate relative to first-quarter platform assets. Total platform assets increased 32% to $369 billion, while funded customers rose 7% to 28.4 million. Investment accounts increased 9% to 29.9 million.
Robinhood Gold subscribers grew 39% to 4.8 million, and average revenue per user increased 24% to $187. The company also repurchased $414 million of Class A shares during the quarter at an average price of about $94.
Costs rose alongside the expansion. Operating expenses increased 33% to $734 million because of marketing, growth spending, restructuring charges and costs linked to Rothera and other new businesses. Adjusted EBITDA, a non-GAAP measure, increased 35% to $741 million.
HOOD shares slipped as investors weighed the revenue mix
Robinhood shares closed Wednesday at $89.84, down about 3.4% before the earnings release. Reuters reported that the stock fell another 0.8% in extended trading, even after adjusted earnings exceeded analysts’ average estimate.
Investors will now watch whether event-contract activity remains durable and whether crypto trading recovers. Robinhood lowered its 2026 adjusted operating expense and share-based compensation outlook to between $2.675 billion and $2.775 billion, from a previous range of $2.7 billion to $2.825 billion. However, that forecast excludes some credit-loss, acquisition, restructuring and regulatory costs.
Regulation remains a central risk for the company’s fastest-growing product. Robinhood warned that enforcement actions or changes in federal and state law could prevent it from offering some event contracts. Meanwhile, its UK crypto launch and future Singapore brokerage services remain forward-looking plans without confirmed start dates.
Crypto World
Crypto News, July 29: Morgan Stanley Launches Ethereum and Solana ETPs, Paul Atkins Pushes Clarity Act, Bitcoin Price Bounces
The crypto market rarely stays still for long. This Wednesday, the Clarity Act, Morgan Stanley, Bitcoin, and Ethereum price are driving the conversation as investors prepare for the Federal Reserve’s policy decision. Like an ecosystem sensing a change in season, traders are watching carefully before making their next move.
Recent volatility has done little to quiet institutional interest. While short-term sentiment remains cautious, large financial firms continue expanding their presence in digital assets. That contrast is becoming one of crypto’s defining themes this year.
Meanwhile, regulators are working to reshape the landscape from another direction. Clearer rules and broader institutional access may not remove volatility, but they could change how capital flows through the market over time.
Discover: The Best Crypto to Diversify Your Portfolio
Morgan Stanley Expands Access as Bitcoin and Ethereum Price Stabilize
Here we see another step in crypto’s gradual evolution. Morgan Stanley has launched Ethereum and Solana exchange-traded products, giving investors broader exposure through familiar investment vehicles. The move signals growing confidence that digital assets are becoming a lasting part of traditional finance rather than a temporary experiment.
The firm’s Ethereum Trust and Solana Trust debuted with competitive fees and staking features from launch. Investors receive most staking rewards, while validator services are handled by Figment. Instead of simply tracking the assets, the products offer an additional source of returns without requiring investors to manage staking themselves.
The launch builds on Morgan Stanley earlier Bitcoin investment product, which already attracted substantial assets. At the same time, European banks continue expanding blockchain infrastructure for tokenized settlements. Together, these developments show established financial institutions steadily adapting to blockchain technology rather than resisting it.
Despite Tuesday’s market weakness, the Bitcoin price has recovered after briefly slipping below recent support. Ethereum price has also regained stability following the broader selloff. The recovery remains measured, reflecting cautious positioning ahead of the Federal Reserve rather than renewed market optimism.
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Clarity Act Gains Support as ETH Chart Reflects Institutional Confidence
Attention is also turning toward Washington. SEC Chair Paul Atkins has renewed his support for the Clarity Act, arguing that durable legislation offers greater certainty than temporary regulatory guidance. His comments reinforce the growing belief that long-term investment depends on clearer rules.
The Clarity Act aims to define responsibilities between the SEC and CFTC, reducing years of uncertainty for crypto businesses. Congress faces a limited legislative window before the August recess. Even so, Atkins has pledged technical assistance to help move the proposal forward.
The growing involvement of Morgan Stanley highlights why regulatory clarity matters. As more established firms enter the market, consistent oversight becomes increasingly important for both institutions and investors. The Clarity Act could provide that foundation if lawmakers reach an agreement.
For now, Bitcoin price remains steady while Ethereum price trades within a relatively stable range after recent volatility. Investors continue monitoring key support and resistance levels, but the Federal Reserve’s decision will likely determine near-term direction across digital assets.
A less hawkish outcome could strengthen Bitcoin price and encourage renewed demand for risk assets. Likewise, Ethereum price may benefit as institutional products attract additional interest. Markets often reward patience during periods of uncertainty, and this week appears no different.
The next chapter will depend on both policy and participation. Morgan Stanley continues expanding institutional access, while the Clarity Act promises a clearer regulatory framework. Whether those developments immediately lift the market remains uncertain, but together they reflect an industry steadily maturing rather than standing still.
Discover: The Best Token Presales
The post Crypto News, July 29: Morgan Stanley Launches Ethereum and Solana ETPs, Paul Atkins Pushes Clarity Act, Bitcoin Price Bounces appeared first on Cryptonews.
The agreement covers tokenized securities, blockchain-based market infrastructure and the potential use of USDT as a settlement layer.
Crypto World
China threatens retaliation against U.S. humanoid robot ban, says it ‘severely damages’ relations
A humanoid robot from Robostore joins CNBC’s Power Lunch on Dec. 30, 2025.
CNBC
BEIJING — The U.S. Federal Communications Commission has repeatedly ignored Beijing’s restrained stance on product bans, China’s commerce ministry said Thursday, threatening retaliation.
The FCC on Tuesday said due to cybersecurity concerns, it added foreign-made advanced robotic devices, including humanoids, to a list restricting imports to the U.S. The statement did not specify a country, and said retailers could still import models the FCC has previously approved.
As the FCC keeps escalating restrictions on Chinese goods, it “severely damages China-U.S. economic and trade stability,” China’s commerce ministry said in an online statement Thursday. That’s according to a CNBC translation of Mandarin.
The ministry urged the U.S. to withdraw the decision, and threatened countermeasures if it failed to do so.
“This is bad news for Chinese humanoid producers planning their IPOs in the coming months,” said Marc Einstein, a research director at Counterpoint Research. “The two major cards China can play are to further restrict rare earth sales to American companies and further restricting Chinese market access for American companies like Tesla and NVIDIA.”
The commerce ministry’s statement comes as U.S. President Donald Trump is scheduled to host Chinese President Xi Jinping in September. Tensions over the tech race have meanwhile intensified, with U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent saying the U.S. could sanction China over AI model “theft.”
Trump on Thursday indicated in public comments that the U.S. might take a more cautious stance on AI controls in order to maintain American tech leadership over China.
Chinese companies Agibot, Unitree and UBTech accounted for the top-three humanoid companies by installation market share last year, according to Counterpoint. Tesla’s Optimus ranked fifth.
Hong Kong-listed UBTech shares briefly fell more than 6% in Thursday morning trading. Unitree and Agibot have filed to go public.
Robostore, a distributor of Chinese humanoid robots in North America, has been preparing by expanding its U.S.-based capabilities, CEO Teddy Haggerty said in a statement to CNBC. He did not elaborate on details.
—CNBC’s Matthew Tan contributed to this report.
“We have stood by this member state through every conflict in which their freedoms have been imperiled, and today I remind them that it is the United States that remains the beacon of liberty for the world,” Negrea continued. “We will not be affording them the benefit of listening to their politicized drivel until they renounce their condescending and disrespectful rhetoric and behave in a manner commensurate with their seat on this council.”
The diplomatic dispute stems from France’s U.N. Mission in Geneva criticizing the United States for opposing a second term for Volker Türk, the U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights who has held the role since 2022.
Türk secured overwhelming backing from member states on Friday, receiving 144 votes in favor of him staying on, with just 10 countries—including the United States—voting against, and 13 abstaining.
“The U.S. used to be a beacon of human rights. Not anymore. Today, it stands alongside North Korea, Nicaragua, Mali, and Russia, isolated. And the world no longer listens to it,” the French Mission said on Saturday via social media, alongside the hashtag “America Alone.”
A Moscow court has moved BitRiver founder Igor Runets from house arrest to pretrial detention as investigators examine an alleged fraud involving nearly ₽1 billion.
Summary
- Two months of pretrial detention replace Igor Runets’s house arrest in Moscow’s expanding fraud investigation.
- Nearly ₽1 billion in alleged losses involve prepaid mining equipment that investigators say never arrived.
- BitRiver’s parent faces bankruptcy proceedings tied directly to the disputed En+ mining equipment contract case.
The Zamoskvoretsky District Court approved the change on July 22 and ordered Runets to remain in custody for two months. The new charge became public on July 29 through reports based on court records and sources familiar with the investigation.
Runets faces an accusation under Part 4 of Article 159 of Russia’s Criminal Code, which covers fraud on an especially large scale. The charge remains an allegation, and no court has found him guilty.
Why the BitRiver founder was moved into custody
According to Pravo.ru, investigators allege that Fox Group, a company controlled by Runets, signed an equipment-supply contract with Infrastructure of Siberia in 2023. Infrastructure of Siberia is part of the En+ group.
The contract reportedly covered more than $8 million of cryptocurrency-mining machines. Investigators say the buyer transferred more than $7.9 million as an advance and expected delivery within 32 days. However, prosecutors allege that the equipment was not delivered and the payment was not returned.
Forbes Russia, citing RBC and case materials, identified the machines as Antminer S19k Pro units. The report said the buyer sent a formal demand for delivery or repayment before cancelling the agreement.
Investigators claim Runets “did not intend to fulfil the contract” and used the money at his discretion. That account reflects the prosecution’s position and has not been proven at trial.
The En+ dispute began as a commercial case
The dispute developed from an earlier commercial relationship between BitRiver and En+. In November 2020, the companies announced the creation of Bit+, a joint venture intended to operate cryptocurrency-mining facilities using hydropower in Russia’s Irkutsk region.
At the time, an official En+ company release described BitRiver as the operator of Russia’s largest data centre offering colocation services for Bitcoin miners. En+ was responsible for supplying electricity, while BitRiver managed mining operations.
However, the relationship later led to several civil claims. In April 2025, the Arbitration Court of the Irkutsk Region reportedly ordered Fox Group to pay Infrastructure of Siberia ₽954.4 million over the disputed advance payment.
Earlier reporting on the En+ claims said the court also restricted access to some funds and equipment during the dispute.
Runets disputed the claimant’s account in May 2025. He said the equipment “was delivered” and stated that Fox Group intended to appeal the judgment. His claim directly conflicts with the current investigative allegation that the machines never arrived.
BitRiver was already facing bankruptcy pressure
The criminal investigation comes as BitRiver and related companies face financial and insolvency proceedings.
Notably, BitRiver faced bankruptcy proceedings over unpaid debts after creditors brought claims linked to equipment, electricity and data-centre services. The process imposed restrictions on several accounts and placed the company under court-supervised financial review.
Forbes reported that Fox Group entered bankruptcy monitoring in February 2026. A court reportedly opened liquidation proceedings in late May after Infrastructure of Siberia sought repayment connected to the equipment contract.
Runets had already been placed under house arrest in late January. That earlier case concerned allegations that BitRiver-related entities concealed funds that should have been available for tax collection. Investigators later added two tax cases and combined several matters into a broader proceeding.
What happens next in the BitRiver fraud case
Runets is expected to remain in pretrial detention for two months unless an appeal changes the court’s order. Investigators may use that period to examine company records, equipment documentation, bank transfers and testimony from people connected to Fox Group and En+.
A Moscow court also froze Runets’s ownership interests in Fox Group and several BitRiver-related entities in June, according to Forbes. The restrictions may remain in place while investigators examine whether company assets relate to the alleged offence.
BitRiver remains a privately held company, and it has no verified publicly traded token linked to its operations. Therefore, no direct crypto-market reaction can be reliably attributed to Runets’s detention.
The company also remains subject to U.S. sanctions. The U.S. Treasury Department sanctioned BitRiver AG and ten Russian subsidiaries in April 2022. Treasury said cryptocurrency-mining companies could help Russia monetise its energy resources.
In related coverage, BitRiver previously claimed Russia could overtake the U.S. in Bitcoin mining. That forecast was a company claim and has not been confirmed by independent mining data.
Why is western Europe seeing so many wildfires now?
Many parts of Europe are no stranger to wildfires. “There’s always been fires in the Mediterranean, going back thousands of years,” says Thomas Elmqvist, professor at the Stockholm Resilience Center, at Stockholm University. “The difference now is that we have fires, but they are much, much larger and much, much more intense.”
A changing landscape has put regions that didn’t typically see wildfires at risk. “Across southern Europe, you have, over the last [few] decades, seen more and more abandonment of rural land…and [it’s led to] the encroachment of shrubs and bushes—a different type of landscape which is much more vulnerable to having these mega fires,” says Elmqvist.
Most of Europe is also currently experiencing a critical drought, which worsened in central-western Europe in late June. Much of the continent has seen above-average temperatures and multiple, prolonged heat waves this year. That has helped supercharge wildfires. “You get incredibly dry biomass, and it doesn’t need much to start a fire,” says Elmqvist.
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The Fed held its key rate steady on Wednesday, July 29, for a fifth straight meeting. However, the 30-year Treasury yield jumped, hitting 5.21%, its highest level since 2007.
Three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members dissented and voted for a hike instead. It’s the first three-way dissent in the same direction since 2016.
Why Inaction Rattled Bond Traders
Markets wanted tough talk on inflation. Oil prices had climbed as tensions between the US and Iran flared up again. Instead, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh gave no forward guidance. He said he wanted markets to react to real data, not to Fed hints.
That vagueness, not the rate decision itself, moved the long end of the bond market. Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers, summed up traders’ frustration.
“It’s one thing to talk about fighting inflation. It’s another thing entirely to do something about it. And again, it’s not clear what he’s doing about it.”
— Sosnick
Again, it was long-term rates, not the Fed’s benchmark rate, that set mortgage costs and other borrowing costs. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate hit 6.58% last week, its highest level in nearly a year.
When investors doubt the Fed can control inflation, they demand higher yields on long-term debt. That pushes borrowing costs up, no matter what the Fed’s official rate says.
A Split Between Warsh’s Defense and Wall Street’s Doubts
Warsh pushed back on the idea that holding rates steady meant sitting still. Previously, he had said he wanted real disagreement among policymakers, and he got it.
“I asked for a good family fight, and I got one.”
— Warsh
Not everyone accepted that framing. Jai Kedia of the Cato Institute, a think tank that favors limited government, sees a deeper problem.
He argues the FOMC has no consistent framework for its decisions. Kedia wants the Fed to follow a fixed policy rule instead of letting each member decide.
Bank of America economists see Wednesday’s move as a credibility test. In a note titled “Doved and Confused,” they said the doubt could push the Fed toward a September hike, according to Reuters
Bitcoin (BTC) and gold both climbed within minutes of the announcement. Some traders read the split vote as inflation-friendly, even as long-term Treasury yields moved the other way.
The next test comes with fresh inflation and jobs data ahead of the Fed’s September meeting. Warsh will need the bond market to actually believe his “family fight” produces the right call.
The post The Fed Decided to Do Nothing and That Decision Backfired: Here’s Why appeared first on BeInCrypto.
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