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Bitcoin Stalls at a Critical Stress Zone as On-Chain Data Warns the Bottom May Not Be In Yet

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Bitcoin Stalls at a Critical Stress Zone as On-Chain Data Warns the Bottom May Not Be In Yet


Bitcoin’s price action is hovering near a level where weaker holders exit and stronger hands begin accumulating historically.

Bitcoin has remained rangebound between $60,000 and $70,000, as choppy trading continued to reflect fears of a further downside move. Fresh data highlights risk building near Short-Term Holder Realized Price bands.

These areas have historically witnessed the start of accumulation and emerging opportunities for global market participants.

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High-Risk, High-Opportunity Zone

According to Alphractal, Bitcoin is currently trading within a tight range defined by the Short-Term Holder Realized Price, and its price action is trapped between key support and resistance levels. In recent weeks, BTC has closely respected the -1σ and -1.5σ deviation bands.

Previous instances reveal that when the crypto asset breaks below the lower blue deviation band, the market typically sees one of two outcomes. Either the formation of a local bottom or a deeper capitulation phase, followed by accumulation. These deviation bands have consistently acted as natural support and resistance across multiple market cycles. To top that, the -1.5σ level has repeatedly represented periods of maximum stress, where selling pressure from short-term holders intensifies, and longer-term participants begin accumulating.

Against this backdrop of high short-term holder stress, Alphractal founder Joao Wedson pointed to a longer-term metric that may indicate the market is not yet at a historical turning point. The Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) metric for long-term holders, which tracks whether the most resilient investors are sitting on unrealized gains or losses, currently stands at 0.36, which means that long-term holders remain in profit despite recent volatility.

Upon looking at past cycles, Wedson found that the clearest late bear-market signal tends to emerge only when this metric turns negative, a condition associated with extreme pessimism and seller exhaustion. Such phases have marked the end of bear markets, rather than the start of a new bull cycle.

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Miners Reduce Exchange Exposure

As Bitcoin trades near crucial stress levels, further on-chain data shows miners adjusting their positioning amid ongoing market pressure. Data shared by CryptoQuant depicts a significant change in miner behavior as more than 36,000 Bitcoin were withdrawn from exchanges since the beginning of February.

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The pace of withdrawals has accelerated compared to previous months, which points to changes in holding strategies or liquidity management. Of this total, over 12,000 BTC were withdrawn from Binance, while more than 24,000 BTC were spread across other exchanges, indicating that it’s not an isolated activity. Such movements are typically associated with transfers to long-term storage, as miners move assets off exchanges into cold wallets, and reduce immediate sell-side supply.

Daily withdrawals peaked above 6,000 BTC, the highest level since November, and significantly exceeded January levels. This means that miners may be repositioning against the backdrop of the current market uncertainty.

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Crypto World

ETH Mass Adoption Across TradFi Backs $2.5K Price Target

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ETH Mass Adoption Across TradFi Backs $2.5K Price Target

Key takeaways:

  • Institutional sentiment is shifting toward ETH as elite funds reallocate capital from Bitcoin to Ether ETFs.

  • BlackRock’s ETH ETF pairs secure staking with a low 0.25% fee, creating a major win for mainstream crypto access.

  • Dominance in the $20 billion real-world asset sector proves that big money prioritizes network security over low gas fees.

Ether (ETH) has failed to reclaim the $2,500 level since Jan. 31, leading traders to question what might spark sustainable bullish momentum. Investors are waiting for definitive signs of a favorable sentiment shift; meanwhile, three distinct events could signal the end of the bear cycle that bottomed at $1,744 on Feb. 6.

US-listed Ether spot ETFs daily net flows, USD. Source: CoinGlass

At first glance, the $327 million in net outflows from spot Ether exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in February is mildly concerning. The apparent lack of institutional appetite while ETH sits 60% below its all-time high could be seen as a lack of confidence in the $1,800 support level. However, these outflows represent less than 3% of the total assets under management for Ether ETFs.

Recent Ether ETF milestones may boost ETH’s price

While investors currently focus almost exclusively on short-term flows, the magnitude of recent Ether ETF developments will eventually reflect positively on ETH price. In bearish markets, positive news is often ignored or downplayed, but strategic moves from the world’s largest asset managers can quickly flip investor risk perception.

The latest US Securities and Exchange Commission filings showed on Monday that the Harvard endowment fund added an $87 million position in BlackRock’s iShares Ethereum Trust during the final quarter of 2025. Interestingly, this vote of confidence arrived as Harvard reduced its iShares Bitcoin Trust holdings to $266 million, down from $443 million in September 2025.

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Latest notable iShares Ethereum Trust ETF holding changes. Source: Marketbeat

In parallel, BlackRock amended its Staked Ethereum ETF proposal on Tuesday to include an 18% retention of total staking rewards as service fees. While some market participants criticized the hefty fee, the ETF sponsor must compensate intermediaries like Coinbase for staking services. Moreover, the relatively low 0.25% expense ratio remains a net positive for the industry.

The final piece of evidence pointing to growing institutional adoption lies in real world asset (RWA) tokenization, a segment that has surpassed $20 billion in assets. Ethereum stands as the absolute leader, hosting offerings from BlackRock, JPMorgan Chase, Fidelity and Franklin Templeton. This intersection of blockchain applications and traditional finance may trigger sustainable demand for ETH.

RWA aggregate onchain market capitalization, USD. Source: DefiLlama

Nearly half of the $13 billion in RWA deposits on Ethereum represent tokenized gold, though investments in US Treasurys, bonds and money market funds grew to an impressive $5.2 billion. By comparison, the combined RWA listings on BNB Chain and Solana amount to $4.2 billion, a strong indicator that institutional money is less concerned with fees and more focused on security.

Related: Tokenized RWAs climb 13.5% despite $1T crypto market drawdown

Even if RWA issuers currently focus on closed-end systems using exclusive decentralized finance pools or their own layer-2 networks, intermediaries will eventually find ways to connect with the broader Ethereum ecosystem. Crypto venture capital firm Dragonfly Capital’s latest $650 million funding round signals a strong appetite for tokenized stocks and private credit offerings.

Rather than backing layer-1 blockchains and consumer-focused applications, investors are directing capital toward RWA infrastructure, institutional custody and trading platforms, a clear sign of market maturation. Although it is difficult to predict how long these shifts will take to impact Ether’s price, these events clearly indicate that a bounce back to $2,500 in the near term is feasible.

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