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Bitcoin steadies above $68K as Iran tensions keep markets on edge

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A bearish Bitcoin PA
A bearish Bitcoin PA

Key takeaways

  • Bitcoin is holding near $69K as Iran-related geopolitical tensions keep markets cautious.
  • Rising oil prices and inflation concerns are limiting upside, but strong ETF inflows and institutional support are helping BTC stay resilient.

Bitcoin is trading sideways near the $69,000 mark as investors remain cautious amid escalating geopolitical tensions tied to the conflict in Iran.

The leading cryptocurrency briefly pushed above $70,000 on Monday—its first move past that level since March—but failed to sustain momentum. 

Geopolitics dominate market sentiment

The ongoing situation in Iran continues to shape global risk appetite. U.S. President Donald Trump has warned of severe consequences if a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz is not reached by the Tuesday 20:00 ET deadline.

Iran has rejected a proposed 45-day ceasefire, instead calling for a permanent end to hostilities alongside the removal of sanctions.

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For Bitcoin, this macro backdrop is significant—higher oil prices tend to support inflation, push Treasury yields higher, and reinforce expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates elevated for longer.

Despite the current situation, Bitcoin has held up better than some traditional markets. While it has not staged a breakout, its ability to maintain levels above $65,000 suggests underlying support from positioning and institutional demand.

Meanwhile, Gold has lost more than 10% of its value as investors scale back expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts this year.

Flows into spot Bitcoin ETFs have been a key factor. After four consecutive months of outflows, March saw $1.2 billion in net inflows. Momentum has continued into April, with spot ETFs recording $471.3 million in inflows in a single day—the largest since February.

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These inflows have helped keep Bitcoin’s price, although resistance near $76,000 continues to cap upside.

For Bitcoin to break higher, a clear catalyst is likely required. A confirmed ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran could be pivotal, particularly if it drives oil prices below $100 per barrel and alleviates inflation concerns.

Technical forecast: Bitcoin eyes the $70k resistance once again

The BTC/USD 4-hour chart remains bearish and efficient as Bitcoin continues to defend the $65,000 support level. 

The price has recovered from this low and is testing resistance around 69k, the 50-day EMA, and the lower band of the rising channel. 

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The RSI of 61 on the 4-hour chart is above the neutral level, indicating a growing bullish bias. The MACD lines are also above the zero line, adding further confluence to the bullish narrative. 

Buyers will need to rise above $69,000 to bring $74,000 into focus, the mid-point of the rising channel and the falling trendline resistance dating back to October’s $126,000 record high. 

BTC/USD 4H Chart

A surge above the $74,000 resistance level would allow BTC to test the March high of $76,000 in the near term. 

However, failure to rally higher would see the bears push the price towards the $65,000 support level once again.

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Stablecoin issuers get closer to U.S. federal rules with FDIC’s new proposal

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Stablecoin issuers get closer to U.S. federal rules with FDIC's new proposal

The U.S. Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. formally proposed its approach to stablecoin issuers as one of the federal financial regulators required to write and oversee rules under last year’s Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins (GENIUS) Act.

The FDIC’s proposal —meant to align closely with what its sister banking agency, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, proposed in February — will be open for a 60-day public comment period on the lengthy list of 144 questions posed Tuesday by the agency.

The FDIC’s job is to police U.S. depository institutions, and under the GENIUS Act, its role is to regulate such institutions issuing stablecoins from their subsidiaries. To that end, it posed capital, liquidity and custody standards for those firms, though the details won’t be set in stone until the rule is finalized — not likely to occur until the agency spends further months reviewing input and writing the final language. This is the second GENIUS Act proposal from the banking agency after its December pitch on the issuer application process.

As expected under the law, stablecoins won’t enjoy the deposit insurance that the banks maintain on traditional banking accounts, according to the proposal.

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The OCC’s earlier proposal had a section that caused some initial concern among crypto policy experts wondering how the agency would allow for rewards programs managed by third-party stablecoin relationships, such as exchanges. In the same vein, the FDIC said that issuers wouldn’t be able to represent that their tokens pay interest or yield “simply for holding or using a payment stablecoin,” according to the staff presentation, including via arrangements with third parties. But crypto insiders have grown comfortable that properly tailored rewards programs shouldn’t run afoul of the rules.

The FDIC’s Tuesday proposal also suggested the capital that issuers will need to maintain to manage the risk of the business, plus “an operational backstop, separate from the capital requirement,” based on the previous year’s operating expenses.  

The agency also addressed “the applicability of pass-through insurance to deposits held as reserves backing payment stablecoins,” proposing that “tokenized deposits that satisfy the statutory definition of ‘deposit’ would be treated no differently” than other deposits.

While the regulators work to implement GENIUS, some of its details are potentially already being overhauled by the work on the Senate’s Digital Asset Market Clarity Act. A clash between the banking and crypto industries over yield-bearing stablecoin holdings turned into a months-long debate that lawmakers have said they’re close to resolving, though the bill hasn’t yet advanced to a needed hearing. Congress comes back from a break later this week.

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The OCC, FDIC and other agencies involved in implementing the rule, including the Treasury Department and the markets regulators, have few impediments in crafting regulations the way the Republican appointees want it. President Donald Trump’s White House has broken with past practice and declined to name any Democrat appointees to the many vacancies across the agencies, so there are no Democrats to raise objections to regulatory language.

But the GENIUS Act itself had drawn significant bipartisan support in both chambers of Congress when it was passed into law.

Read More: U.S. FDIC proposes first U.S. stablecoin rule to emerge from GENIUS Act

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US Equity Fear Gauge Tops 2008 Crisis Levels as Short Interest Hits Multi-Year Highs

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Retail fear across US equity markets has reached levels not seen in over two decades. The ROBO Put/Call Ratio has jumped to 1.0 for the first time in at least 20 years.

The reading exceeds the 0.91 peak during the 2008 Financial Crisis and the 0.95 reached during the 2020 pandemic selloff. The ratio has doubled since December, marking the sharpest rise since the 2022 bear market began. 

“This ratio tracks retail opening buy orders in options, with the current reading showing retail traders buying nearly equal amounts of puts and calls…Fear is becoming overdone in this market,” The Kobeissi Letter noted.

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ROBO Put/Call Ratio at 1.0 in the US Equity Market
ROBO Put/Call Ratio at 1.0 in the US Equity Market. Source: X/The Kobeissi Letter

Market sentiment is also evidenced by the CNN Fear & Greed Index, which has fallen to 23, placing it at the threshold of extreme fear territory.

Bearish Positioning Reaches Rare Extremes

The surge comes amid a broad rise in short interest across all major US indexes. According to data from Global Markets Investor, the median short interest for the S&P 500 now stands at approximately 3.7%, its highest level in 11 years.

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The Nasdaq 100 has reached roughly 2.7% short interest, a 6-year high. The Russell 2000 sits near 5.0%, its highest in 15 years.

The last time all three indexes showed such elevated short positioning simultaneously was during the 2010-2011 European debt crisis. That convergence is significant because it suggests bearish conviction extends beyond any single sector or market-cap segment.

“All three indexes have seen short interest rise sharply since mid-2024, accelerating further in 2026,” the post added.

BeInCrypto recently reported that hedge funds shorted global equities at the most aggressive pace in 13 years, with short sales outpacing long purchases by a ratio of 7.6 to 1. 

The simultaneous alignment of extreme retail fear, a near-extreme Fear & Greed reading, and elevated institutional short positioning creates a notable asymmetry. Even a modest positive catalyst could trigger forced covering across multiple indexes, triggering a rapid, potentially disorderly rally.

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The contrarian case is building, but a catalyst is needed. Sentiment alone doesn’t reverse markets. The critical question is whether current fear reflects genuine, fundamental deterioration or an overshoot driven by peak-fear psychology.

A resolution in the escalating US-Iran tensions could be the kind of macro shock that flips the narrative, but for now, with no signs of de-escalation, the market remains in a holding pattern between peak fear and potential inflection.

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The post US Equity Fear Gauge Tops 2008 Crisis Levels as Short Interest Hits Multi-Year Highs appeared first on BeInCrypto.

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Kharg Island oil hub struck

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Kharg Island oil hub struck

The US Iran war latest news oil prices today tells a sharply escalating story: American forces struck more than 50 military targets on Kharg Island, the hub through which Iran exports 90% of its crude, sending oil surging more than 3% to nearly $116 per barrel within minutes of the first reports.

Summary

  • The US military struck dozens of military targets on Kharg Island early Tuesday, Iran’s semi-official Mehr News Agency was first to report explosions, and Vice President JD Vance confirmed the strikes during a press conference in Budapest
  • Oil jumped over 3% to nearly $116 per barrel immediately, while Brent crude crossed $110; Vance said the strikes did not include oil infrastructure and did not represent a change in strategy ahead of Trump’s 8 PM ET deadline
  • The IRGC warned it would “deprive the US and its allies of the region’s oil and gas for years” if Trump follows through with threatened strikes on Iran’s civilian power and water infrastructure tonight

The US Iran war latest news oil prices today sent a fresh shock through global energy markets on Tuesday as US forces struck more than 50 military targets on Kharg Island, Iran’s largest oil export hub, hours before President Trump’s 8 PM ET deadline expired. Iran’s semi-official Mehr News Agency reported multiple explosions on the island as early as 1:30 PM local Tehran time, and oil surged immediately, with US crude jumping over 3% to nearly $116 per barrel and Brent crossing $110.

VP JD Vance confirmed the strikes during a press conference with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán in Budapest, characterizing them as “re-strikes” on previously targeted sites. “I don’t think the news about Kharg Island changes anything,” Vance said, insisting the attacks did not touch oil infrastructure and did not alter the president’s strategy ahead of the evening deadline.

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Kharg Island handles roughly 90% of Iran’s crude oil exports and carries a loading capacity of about 7 million barrels per day, making it the primary financial lifeline of Tehran’s war-era economy. Iran earns an estimated $53 billion in net oil export revenues annually, about 11% of its GDP, almost entirely flowing through the island’s pipelines and terminals.

The US has now struck the island twice since the war began February 28. The first attack in mid-March destroyed naval mine storage facilities, missile bunkers, and air defense systems while preserving oil infrastructure. Tuesday’s strikes hit some of the same sites, according to a US official, again stopping short of targeting the oil terminal itself. Whether that restraint holds after 8 PM is the question driving markets.

What an Oil Infrastructure Strike Would Mean

Analysts have warned that striking Kharg’s oil terminal would have immediate and lasting consequences. “A direct hit on Iran’s export terminal would instantly shut down most of its 1.5 million barrels per day crude exports,” JPMorgan data cited by CNBC showed. “Destruction of its oil infrastructure would take years to rebuild, leaving the country deprived of its most critical source of revenue,” Vandana Hari of Vanda Insights told CNBC.

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Iran has already telegraphed its response. The IRGC warned Tuesday that it would “deprive the US and its allies of the region’s oil and gas for years” if the civilian infrastructure strikes go forward. It also signaled that restraint toward Gulf Arab states hosting US military assets is now over, saying “all such considerations have been lifted” — a direct threat to regional energy facilities in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and the UAE.

Bitcoin and Crypto Markets Under Fresh Pressure

As crypto.news reported, each round of escalation in this conflict has pushed oil higher and Bitcoin lower, with the Strait of Hormuz closure already keeping crude above $100 for weeks and compressing Federal Reserve flexibility on rate cuts. Crypto.news also noted that major cryptocurrencies have dropped 3 to 5% during prior escalation phases, as higher oil prices feed directly into inflation expectations and reduce appetite for risk assets.

Tonight’s 8 PM deadline, and what follows it, will determine the next major move for both energy and crypto markets.

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Bitcoin Risks Final Leg Down to $54K in the Next 5 Months, Analyst Warns

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Bitcoin Risks Final Leg Down to $54K in the Next 5 Months, Analyst Warns

Multiple Bitcoin indicators, including a bull-bear sentiment index and realized price metric, point to a possible final BTC shakeout toward $54,000

Bitcoin (BTC) is showing signs of the bear market’s late stages but could see another leg lower in the coming months, says Joao Wedson, founder and CEO of on-chain analytics platform Alphractal.

Key takeaways:

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  • BTC may still see one last big drop before recovering, based on one sentiment indicator.

  • The next likely downside target is near Bitcoin’s realized price at $54,000.

BTC index hints at a drop toward $54,000

In a Tuesday post, Wedson said Bitcoin’s 720-day Tactical Bull-Bear Sentiment Index (TBBI), a long-term indicator that tracks multi-year cycles of fear and greed, had dropped into an extreme bearish zone below 20.

Historically, such readings have reflected “late-stage fear” among traders, a phase that can still produce one final shakeout before Bitcoin begins a more durable recovery.

Bitcoin TBBI vs. BTC price. Source: Alphractal

In 2022, for instance, Bitcoin fell more than 20% after the indicator reached similarly depressed levels.

A comparable setup also appeared before Bitcoin lost around 50% in 2018, prompting Wedson to see a similar possibility in 2026.

Related: Bitcoin RSI ‘nearly perfectly’ copying end of 2022 bear market: Analysis

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He warned that Bitcoin could still face “a sharp move like a –$15K shakeout” over the next six months, implying a roughly 20% decline from current levels toward the $54,000 area.

More BTC indicators converge on $50,000–$55,000

The implied target matches earlier BTC downside calls that see Bitcoin falling toward the $50,000–$55,000 area on war-led oil inflation and quantum security risks.

The $54,000 level also nearly coincides with Bitcoin’s realized price (purple) on Glassnode’s MVRV Extreme Deviation Pricing Bands, suggesting any final shakeout could send BTC toward a key on-chain cost-basis support level.

BTC MVRV extreme deviation pricing bands. Source: Glassnode

More bearish forecasts have also surfaced, with analysts such as Bloomberg Intelligence’s Mike McGlone warning that Bitcoin could eventually slide to as low as $10,000.

Still, Strategy’s aggressive Bitcoin purchases in recent weeks have helped absorb selling pressure and limit BTC’s downside, raising the possibility that the broader bearish scenario may fail to play out.

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As Cointelegraph reported, Bitcoin could reverse sharply and climb back toward $100,000 or higher if the Michael Saylor firm continues its buying spree.