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Bitcoin Tops $70,000 as US-Iran Ceasefire Talks Lift Risk

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BTC and XRP holders turn to NOW DeFi's quantum cloud mining

Bitcoin climbed above $70,200 on Monday for the first time since March 25, as a report that the US and Iran are negotiating a 45-day ceasefire sent risk assets sharply higher across global markets.

Summary

  • Bitcoin surged more than 3.5% on April 6, peaking at $70,200 after Axios reported that the US, Iran, and regional mediators are actively discussing a 45-day ceasefire
  • The move triggered $273 million in short liquidations across crypto markets within 24 hours, according to Coinglass
  • Markets remain cautious, with Polymarket giving the ceasefire roughly 30% odds by April 30, and a White House official confirming Trump has not yet signed off on the proposal

Bitcoin (BTC) reclaimed $70,000 on Monday for the first time in nearly two weeks, rising more than 3.5% to a peak of $70,200 as Axios reported that the US, Iran, and a group of regional mediators are discussing terms for a potential 45-day ceasefire. The report, citing four US, Israeli, and regional sources, sent fresh capital flowing into risk assets on the first trading day after Easter.

Ethereum climbed as much as 5.1% alongside Bitcoin, while the total crypto market cap crossed back above $2.5 trillion. Major altcoins followed, with SOL, XRP, and DOGE all registering gains.

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Pakistan is brokering what sources describe as the “Islamabad Accord,” a two-phase deal that would begin with a 45-day ceasefire and transition into negotiations for a permanent end to the conflict. The plan also envisions the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, the key shipping lane that has remained closed since the war began six weeks ago.

A White House official confirmed the proposal is under active consideration but told reporters: “The President has not signed off on it. Operation Epic Fury continues.” Trump, who extended his strike deadline on Iran to Tuesday at 8 pm ET, told Axios he is “in deep negotiations” with Tehran, adding: “There is a good chance, but if they don’t make a deal, I am blowing up everything over there.”

Six Weeks of Conflict Have Kept Crypto Range-Bound

The US-Iran war has kept roughly 20% of global crude supply constrained behind the closed Strait of Hormuz, sustaining oil prices at elevated levels and dampening risk appetite since the conflict began. Bitcoin had already been weighed down by weeks of escalation headlines, with the asset trading within a $65,000 to $73,000 range even as ceasefire rumors produced repeated short-term spikes. Prior diplomatic attempts collapsed after Iran rejected earlier terms, keeping the strait closed and pressure on risk markets intact.

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$273 Million in Shorts Cleared, Open Interest Signals Fresh Capital

Coinglass data shows $273 million in bearish crypto bets were liquidated within 24 hours of the ceasefire reports surfacing. Short positions made up the overwhelming majority of losses, reflecting how heavily traders had positioned for further downside heading into the holiday weekend.

Bitcoin’s notional open interest rose 7%, and Ethereum’s climbed 11%, both outpacing spot price gains. As crypto.news noted, rising open interest alongside positive funding rates suggests fresh capital entering the market rather than a pure short squeeze. Polymarket currently gives the ceasefire roughly 30% odds by April 30, up from 18% before the Islamabad Accord came to light.

Whether the deal clears Trump’s Tuesday deadline remains the critical variable. Any breakdown in talks risks an immediate reversal, with analysts flagging $65,000 to $66,000 as the key support zone to watch if ceasefire optimism fades.

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Crypto World

Grayscale Says Bitcoin’s Quantum Problem is Mostly a Social One

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Grayscale Says Bitcoin’s Quantum Problem is Mostly a Social One

The challenge to solving the quantum threat to Bitcoin could be more social than technical, according to Grayscale’s head of research, especially if the community fails to come to an agreement on certain contentious issues.

Google released a paper that shook the crypto industry on March 30, suggesting that a quantum computer could potentially crack the cryptography protecting Bitcoin (BTC) using far fewer resources than previously thought.

Grayscale head of research Zach Pandl, however, suggested the problem for Bitcoin doesn’t come from its technical solution, as “bitcoin has lower risk than other cryptocurrencies” because it uses a UTXO model and proof-of-work consensus, does not have native smart contracts and certain address types are not quantum vulnerable.

Instead, the challenge would be for the community to reach a decision on the way forward, said Pandl. 

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The Bitcoin community has been fiercely debating what to do about old dormant coins, particularly the roughly 1.7 million BTC locked in early P2PK addresses, including Satoshi’s estimated 1 million BTC stash, currently worth about $68 billion. 

The Bitcoin community has three options 

The Bitcoin community needs to decide what to do about coins where the private key has been lost or is otherwise inaccessible, wrote Pandl. 

They have three main options: burning the coins, deliberately slowing their release by limiting the rate of spending from vulnerable addresses or doing nothing. 

“All are conceptually doable, but the challenge is reaching a decision, and the Bitcoin community has a history of contentious debates over protocol changes, including last year’s dispute around image data stored in blocks.”

Pandl was referring to a big fracas that erupted in 2023 over the use of blockspace for Bitcoin Ordinals, technology that enables inscribing data such as text and images to a satoshi, the smallest unit of Bitcoin. 

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Two years later, the debate may have quietened down, but the two sides continue to hold opposing views.

Related: Researchers say quantum computers could, in theory, be ready by 2030

About 1.7 million BTC is vulnerable to the quantum threat. Source: Grayscale

No threat now but time to get started

Pandl cautioned that it was “time to get started” and that blockchains need to adopt post-quantum cryptography, echoing the sentiment from Google. 

Both Solana and the XRP Ledger are already experimenting with post-quantum cryptography, wrote Pandl. Meanwhile, the Ethereum Foundation released its post-quantum roadmap in February.

Pandl concluded that investors “should not fret” for now, but it is time to accelerate efforts to prepare for our post-quantum future. 

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“In our view, there is no security threat to public blockchains from quantum computers today.”

Magazine: Nobody knows if quantum secure cryptography will even work