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Bitcoin whale activity hits 2023 low as smart money remains quiet

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46% of Bitcoin supply now in loss, near 2022 bear levels

Bitcoin (BTC) whale activity has slowed to its weakest level since September 2023, adding to signs that large holders have turned cautious. 

Summary

  • Santiment said whale activity dropped as investors watched uncertainty and conflict in the Middle East.
  • Transfers above $100,000 and $1 million fell as Bitcoin struggled to recover after price swings.
  • Analysts said short-term holder losses and weaker speculation may mark a new Bitcoin accumulation phase.

Data from Santiment shows that transfers above $100,000 have dropped as Bitcoin trades below recent highs and investors watch policy updates and geopolitical risks.

Santiment said daily Bitcoin transactions above $100,000 fell to 6,417, the lowest reading since September 2023. Transfers above $1 million also dropped to 1,485, their lowest level since October 2024.

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The firm said activity rose sharply during Bitcoin’s early February sell-off, when large holders moved funds during heavy volatility. Since then, that pace has faded as the market entered a consolidation period and failed to regain steady momentum.

Santiment said the decline does not confirm a bullish or bearish trend on its own. The firm said whale activity has become “historically quiet” while market participants wait for more clarity around the CLARITY Act and the conflict in the Middle East.

The firm added that “smart money is in the same boat as smaller retail holders at the moment, and have been reluctant to make moves with so much policy and global uncertainty at play.” That view places the current market in a wait-and-see phase rather than a clear trend.

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Moreover, Bitcoin recently reached $76,000, its highest level in about six weeks, before sellers pushed it lower. The rejection sent the asset below $68,000, though it later rebounded toward $72,000 before slipping under $70,000 again.

The latest moves show that Bitcoin remains sensitive to external events as traders track war-related headlines and broader market signals. At the same time, the weak recovery in whale activity suggests that large holders have not yet returned with strong conviction.

Analysts point to washout among short-term holders

Ali Martinez said Bitcoin’s Realized Cap for new holders has hit a low level that often appears after speculative interest leaves the market. According to his view, the recent reset has removed many weak hands and left more committed holders in place.

Analyst Michaël van de Poppe also said short-term holders are sitting on heavy losses in what he described as capitulation. He said many traders bought during Bitcoin’s initial drop toward $80,000, only to see positions fall deeper into loss as the price moved below $70,000. 

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Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.

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Can Ondo price reclaim $0.50 as it confirms bullish reversal pattern?

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Ondo price has confirmed a bullish reversal pattern on the daily chart.

Ondo price jumped 8% following its partnership with Franklin Templeton to launch new tokenized ETFs on the blockchain. 

Summary

  • Ondo price rose 8% after announcing a partnership with Franklin Templeton to launch tokenized ETFs accessible via crypto wallets.
  • The move expands access for global investors and strengthens Ondo’s position in the tokenized real-world asset market.
  • A falling wedge breakout signals potential upside, though mixed indicators show that resistance near $0.30 remains a key level.

According to data from crypto.news, Ondo (ONDO) price rallied 8% to a weekly high of $0.27 on Friday, March 26, before rolling back to $0.26 at the time of writing. 

Ondo price jumped after it revealed its partnership with Franklin Templeton to bring tokenized versions of the asset manager’s ETFs. The five ETFs, which include exposure to U.S. stocks, bonds, and gold, would be tradable round the clock from crypto wallets, thus distinguishing them from traditional market hours that limit trading.

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With these tokenized offerings, non-U.S. investors can now access these assets directly, thus increasing the potential investor base. 

The collaboration with the asset manager that holds nearly $1.7 trillion in assets under management increased the visibility and credibility of the token while also increasing the expectation of more widespread adoption by institutional investors. 

Ondo Finance currently oversees over $2.7 billion in tokenized assets as it continues to expand in the real-world asset sector. Just days ago, the platform revealed it had added another 60 tokenized US stocks and ETFs to its platform, raising the total number of available assets to over 250 across Ethereum, Solana, and BNB Chain.

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On the daily chart, Ondo price has broken out of a falling wedge pattern, a popular bullish reversal pattern formed of two descending and converging trendlines. When an asset breaks out of the upper trend line of the pattern, it typically tends to rally sustainably over multiple following sessions.

Ondo price has confirmed a bullish reversal pattern on the daily chart.
Ondo price has confirmed a bullish reversal pattern on the daily chart — March 26 | Source: crypto.news

In Ondo’s case, the token could rally, surpassing $0.50 to nearly $0.64, a target calculated by adding the height of the wedge at its widest point to the breakout price level where the breakout occurred.

However, technical indicators seem to present a diverging perspective. The Supertrend has flashed a red signal, suggesting that the market trend was still bearish at the time of writing. The Aroon Down at 78.57% was also far higher than the Aroon up at 35.71%, a sign that selling pressure largely outweighed buying momentum.

For now, the most important resistance level to watch is $0.30, a level where the price has faced stiff resistance since early February. If Ondo surges past this barrier, it could potentially ignite a rally towards the target at $0.50.

On the contrary, a drop below the Feb. 6 low of $0.20 could invalidate the current breakout and lead to further downside momentum.

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Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.

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US lawmakers push to block insider bets on government events

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US lawmakers push to block insider bets on government events

US lawmakers have opened a new front in the fight over prediction markets. A bipartisan House bill now aims to stop top federal officials and their families from trading on government-related outcomes, as pressure also builds around sports and war-linked contracts.

Summary

  • PREDICT Act would bar Congress, presidents, appointees, spouses, and dependents from government-related prediction market trades.
  • Lawmakers tied the proposal to concerns that insiders could profit from war and policy events.
  • Separate Senate and House bills also target sports contracts as pressure grows on platforms nationwide.

Representatives Adrian Smith and Nikki Budzinski introduced the Preventing Real-time Exploitation and Deceptive Insider Congressional Trading Act, or PREDICT Act, on March 25, 2026. 

The bill would bar members of Congress, their spouses and dependent children, the president, the vice president, and political appointees from trading on political events, policy decisions, and other government actions on prediction markets.

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The proposal also sets penalties for violations. Reports on the bill say the measure would impose a civil fine equal to 10% of the contract’s value and require any profit to go to the US Treasury. Budzinski said recent market activity raised questions about whether people with inside knowledge could benefit from these trades.

Budzinski said, “we’ve seen instances of little-known traders making massive profits” on events tied to war and government funding fights. Smith said public service must not become “a pathway to profit.” Their comments placed the bill within a wider debate over access to sensitive information in Washington.

That debate has grown in March. On March 17, Senator Chris Murphy and Representative Greg Casar introduced the BETS OFF Act, which would ban wagering on government actions, terrorism, war, assassination, and events where a person knows or controls the outcome. Murphy’s office said unusual trading before military actions involving Iran and Venezuela raised fresh concerns.

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Congress is also moving against sports-related contracts. On March 23, Senators Adam Schiff and John Curtis introduced the Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act. Their bill would stop CFTC-registered entities from listing contracts that resemble sports bets or casino-style games.

Schiff said, “Sports prediction contracts are sports bets.” Curtis said the products belong under state control, not federal regulators. Their offices said sports event contracts now trade across all 50 states, even where local law restricts gambling.

Platforms face state action and new rules

The industry is also under pressure outside Congress. On March 20, a Nevada judge temporarily blocked Kalshi from offering event contracts in the state without a license. The case forms part of a wider fight over whether these products are financial tools or unlicensed gambling.

At the same time, Kalshi and Polymarket have tightened their own rules. Kalshi barred political candidates from trading on their own campaigns, while Polymarket revised its rules to block trades by users with confidential information or direct influence over an outcome.

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Ether Rallies Fail To Break The $2.4K Level: Here’s Why

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Ether Rallies Fail To Break The $2.4K Level: Here’s Why

Key takeaways:

  • Ether struggles to hold $2,400 due to low DEX volumes and declining demand for decentralized applications.

  • Institutional investor-led outflows and weak futures premiums suggest that ETH lacks the bullish demand for a sustainable rally.

Ether (ETH) experienced a 6% correction between Wednesday and Thursday, retesting the $2,050 level, and reflecting a risk-off environment fueled by uncertainty surrounding the US and Israel-Iran war. Ether has lagged behind the total crypto market cap, leading investors to wonder what might trigger a sustained rally above $2,400.

ETH/USD (orange) vs. Total crypto capitalization (blue). Source: TradingView

The price of Ether has dropped 31% since the start of 2026, driven by a dip in decentralized application activity and a cautious mood across the cryptocurrency space. Much of this selling pressure comes from a lack of regulatory progress in the United States, especially since the Trump administration had fueled hope for a more crypto-friendly era.

ETH under pressure due to ETF outflows and onchain activity

The US Senate is now looking into a ban on yield for stablecoins kept on exchanges. While Coinbase is pushing back hard, the move has added another layer of worry for traders. Banking groups argue that the GENIUS Act already prevents stablecoin issuers from paying yields to holders directly, claiming that using exchanges as intermediaries is simply a loophole.

A recent report from the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) also urged nations to tighten oversight as stablecoins become more common in payments and cross-border transfers using self-custody wallets. The global anti-money laundering watchdog stated that peer-to-peer transactions make it more difficult for authorities to detect suspicious financial activity.

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Besides regulatory setbacks, several indicators suggest limited short-term upside for Ether.

US-listed spot Ether ETFs daily net flows, USD. Source: SoSoValue

The US-listed spot Ether ETFs recorded $298 million in net outflows since March 18, marking six consecutive trading days of redemptions. While these flows are not a perfect proxy for institutional demand, especially following the launch of ETFs with embedded staking functionalities, investor risk perception remained unchanged by the 2.8% native staking yield.

Weekly DEX volumes on Ethereum, USD. Source: DefiLlama

The falling activity on Ethereum decentralized exchanges is a major concern as demand for the token weakens. The current weekly average of $9.4 billion stands around 50% lower compared to levels seen in the final three months of 2025. Unless there is a turnaround in this metric, Ether will likely struggle to maintain levels above $2,400.

ETH 2-month futures annualized premium. Source: Laevitas.ch

Ether monthly futures traded at a 2% premium relative to regular spot markets on Thursday, indicating a lack of demand for bullish leverage. Under neutral conditions, this metric should stand between 4% and 8% to compensate for the longer settlement period. ETH bears will likely remain confident until this metric returns to a neutral range.

Related: SEC is no longer a ‘cop on the beat‘ on crypto, says US lawmaker

There is little doubt that socio-economic events, such as the US and Israel-Iran war, have been the main drivers behind the weakness in the stock market over the past two months. This risk-off mood contributed to Ether’s failure to reclaim $2,400. Still, an improvement in Ethereum decentralized exchange activity and higher conviction from institutional investors is needed for sustainable bullish momentum.

The accumulation of Ether by multi-billion dollar companies such as BitMine, SharpLink, and The Ether Machine could act as a catalyst for ETH to outperform the broader cryptocurrency market when the tide shifts favorably. For now, however, the price of Ether remains under pressure.

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