Wall Street broker Bernstein expects prediction market volumes to reach roughly $1 trillion by 2030, as the sector evolves from niche wagering into broad-based “information markets” spanning sports, crypto, politics and the economy.

Volumes hit $51 billion last year and are on pace to reach about $240 billion in 2026, implying roughly 80% compound annual growth through the end of the decade, the report said. Activity has already accelerated in 2026, with Polymarket and Kalshi recording combined year-to-date volumes of $60 billion.

“Increasing regulatory clarity at the federal level is expanding the addressable market, while blockchain-based tokenization and integration with crypto markets is enabling global liquidity, long-tail event creation and participation from institutions,” wrote analysts led by Gautam Chhugani.

Prediction markets have surged from a niche corner of crypto and academic experimentation into a fast-growing segment of global trading activity in just a few years.

Volumes have spiked alongside major news cycles, most notably the 2024 U.S. election, while platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi have expanded access beyond politics into sports, crypto and macroeconomic events.

The combination of clearer U.S. regulatory footing, improved user experience and the integration of blockchain-based liquidity has accelerated adoption, pushing the sector toward mainstream relevance

The report attributed the growth to improving federal regulatory clarity, which expands access beyond fragmented state-level gaming rules, alongside blockchain-based infrastructure that enables global liquidity and rapid creation of new event contracts.

Sports currently accounts for about 62% of volumes, benefiting from lower effective take rates versus traditional online sportsbooks. But the analysts expect that share to fall to roughly 31% by 2030, as crypto-linked contracts and macro, political and economic events gain traction. Institutional participation is also expected to grow, particularly for hedging event-driven risks.

$10.8 billion in revenue

Bernstein analysts estimate industry revenues could expand from roughly $400 million in 2025 to $2.5 billion in 2026, reaching about $10.8 billion by 2030 at current take rates. Even with significant fee compression, they see potential for a multi-billion-dollar revenue pool.

Distribution is emerging as a key competitive moat. The report pointed to Robinhood (HOOD) and Coinbase (COIN) as early leaders, leveraging their combined tens of millions of users.

Robinhood has already built a $350 million annualized revenue run rate from prediction markets and is moving toward owning exchange infrastructure, while Coinbase entered via Kalshi with nationwide access to more than 1,000 contracts, the report added.

The broker has an outperform rating on both Coinbase and Robinhood.

Read more: Why Cantor Fitzgerald thinks Robinhood and Coinbase are the best ways to play the prediction market boom

Bitcoin traded around $74,700 on Wednesday, consolidating just below the psychologically significant $75,000 level after retreating from a brief touch above $76,000 earlier this week.

Ethereum changed hands near $2,360, up roughly 2% on the day, while Solana rose to $85 and XRP climbed to $1.39, according to CoinGecko.

Among the Top 100 digital assets, DeFi lending protocols Aave and Morpho are today’s top gainers, up 8% and 7%, respectively.

Meanwhile, RaveDAO is the biggest loser after losing a quarter of its value overnight.

The total crypto market cap stands at $2.61 trillion with 24-hour trading volume near $97 billion. Bitcoin dominance is steady at 57.2%, with Ethereum dominance at 10.9%, per CoinGecko.

ETF Flows Whipsaw

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs posted $411.5 million in net inflows on Tuesday, according to SoSoValue data, the second-largest daily inflow day in April and enough to push 2026 year-to-date net flows back into positive territory. Total spot Bitcoin ETF assets under management surged above $96.5 billion.

BlackRock’s IBIT led with approximately $214 million, extending its inflow streak to five consecutive days totaling around $696 million.

The Tuesday inflows marked a sharp reversal from the previous day, when spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $325.8 million in net outflows, underscoring the tug-of-war between institutional demand and profit-taking in a range-bound market.

Resistance at $75K

Bitcoin has struggled to sustain a break above $75,000, briefly piercing that level yesterday before pulling back to the low $74,000s. Since the onset of the U.S.-Iran conflict, BTC is up roughly 12%, benefiting from its perception as an apolitical store of value, but the rally has stalled at overhead resistance.

The geopolitical backdrop remains the dominant macro variable. Iran’s acceptance of Bitcoin as payment for Strait of Hormuz transit tolls, as confirmed by a spokesperson for Iran’s Oil, Gas and Petrochemical Products Exporters’ Union, continues to ripple through markets.

Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan argued this week that Iran’s use of Bitcoin in sovereign trade positions it to eventually challenge gold’s $34 trillion market cap.

Three near-term catalysts could determine whether Bitcoin breaks higher or retests the $70,000 support zone: the April 15 tax deadline, the Iran ceasefire expiry on April 22, and the FOMC meeting on April 28–29.

Bitwise Asset Management has launched a spot Avalanche exchange-traded product, giving investors exposure to the Avalanche token while staking a portion of its holdings to generate yield.

Bitwise plans to stake roughly 70% of its AVAX holdings through its in-house infrastructure, while maintaining a liquidity reserve of about 30% to meet redemptions and operational needs.

The fund began trading Wednesday on the NYSE under the ticker BAVA, closing up about 1.5%, to $25.50 per share, according to Yahoo Finance. The Avalanche token (AVAX) was last trading at $9.52, up 1.8%, according to CoinMarketCap.

According to Wednesday’s announcement, the product carries a sponsor fee of 0.34%, with a temporary waiver to 0% for the first month on the first $500 million in assets, and is structured to distribute net investment income, including staking rewards, to shareholders periodically.

The fund holds AVAX directly and uses an in-house staking unit, Bitwise Onchain Solutions, to participate in network validation and earn rewards, which are paid in additional tokens. Avalanche staking rewards were about 5.4% as of mid-April, according to the announcement.

Avalanche is a Layer-1 blockchain built for high throughput and low latency. It is used across tokenization and enterprise pilots, including initiatives tied to FIFA, state-level stablecoin efforts in Wyoming, and projects from companies such as Toyota and asset managers including BlackRock.

The new fund is the latest Avalanche fund development in recent weeks. Nasdaq last week filed with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to list shares of the VanEck Avalanche Trust, a proposed ETF designed to provide exposure to AVAX under rules governing commodity-based trust shares.

Related: CME Group expands crypto futures with Avalanche and Sui contracts

Bitcoin ETFs and DATs hold an increasing amount of Bitcoin

The launch of Bitwise’s Avalanche ETF comes as exchange-traded crypto products and publicly traded companies continue to accumulate a growing share of Bitcoin’s (BTC) circulating supply.

According to data from BitBO.io, Bitcoin ETFs hold more than 1.29 million BTC, or just over 6% of circulating supply. Public companies hold an additional 1.17 million BTC on their balance sheets, based on figures from BitcoinTreasuries.NET. Combined, ETFs and corporate holders now account for around 12% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply.

Among ETFs, accumulation is led by BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust, which holds about 791,000 BTC, or roughly 3.8% of total supply, followed by Grayscale’s Bitcoin Trust with around 153,600 BTC, or about 0.7%.

Beyond asset managers, banks are also entering the market. Earlier this month, the Morgan Stanley Bitcoin Trust (MSBT), the first spot Bitcoin ETF offered by a US bank, recorded $30.6 million in inflows on its trading debut and generated about $34 million in first-day volume.

On Tuesday, Goldman Sachs filed with the SEC to launch a Bitcoin-linked exchange-traded fund designed to generate income while limiting exposure to the cryptocurrency’s volatility. The proposed fund would invest in Bitcoin ETPs and sell call options to generate income while limiting exposure to price swings.

Among public companies, Strategy, the first Bitcoin treasury company, chaired by Michael Saylor, holds 780,897 Bitcoin, or around 4% of the total supply. 

Governments also collectively hold around 3% of circulating Bitcoin, with around 649,870 BTC on their balance sheets. The United States is the largest holder with about 328,000 BTC, followed by China with roughly 190,000 BTC and the United Kingdom with more than 61,000 BTC.

Bitcoin’s price has fallen from its high of around $126,000 in October, and is trading around $75,100, per CoinGecko data.

Magazine: Bitcoin will not hit $1M by 2030, says veteran trader Peter Brandt