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Crypto World

Bitcoin’s (BTC) On-Chain Data Just Flashed a Major Warning Sign

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Bitcoin is showing signs of a capitulation phase as capital continues leaving the network and investors lock in losses across the market, according to the latest analysis by crypto analyst Axel Adler Jr.

Data suggests that Bitcoin’s Realized Cap 30D Change dropped to -1.1%. This is the first time since mid-March that outflows have reached this level.

Capitulation Signals

Realized Cap measures the aggregate value of all Bitcoin based on the price at which coins last moved, and its 30-day change is used to track whether capital is entering or leaving the network. Adler explained that Realized Cap declined by around $12 billion from its mid-May peak of approximately $1.087 trillion to $1.075 trillion.

The pace of contraction also accelerated sharply in recent days. On June 1, the indicator was still at -0.15%, but by June 8 it had fallen to -1.1%. During the same period, BTC’s price dropped from $82,000 to $63,000, representing a 23% decline. According to the analysis, the current pace of outflows is already comparable to the early stage of the March capitulation event, when the indicator eventually fell to -2.4%. This suggests there is still room for further deterioration before conditions reach the March extremes.

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The first positive sign would be stabilization in the 30-day change near zero before turning upward. Until then, the market regime remains negative.

The analysis also revealed that Bitcoin’s Adjusted SOPR SMA-30, or aSOPR, which measures whether coins are being sold at a profit or loss, fell below the crucial 1.0 level on May 28 and has now remained below that threshold for 13 consecutive days.

Its current reading of 0.987 indicates that coins moved on-chain are being sold at an average loss of about 1.3%. The indicator has continued trending downward without any meaningful recovery since breaking below 1.0.

As such, a continued period with aSOPR below 1 is a classic sign of weak hands being flushed out of the market. Adler added that sellers remain in control until the indicator reverses upward and retests the 1.0 level. The analyst said the major trigger for a regime change would be a recovery in aSOPR above 1.0 alongside stabilization in Realized Cap outflows. Until those signals appear, the market remains in a capitulation regime, with the risk of deeper outflows toward the March extreme of -2.4%.

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Historical Profitability Reset

Separate data from CryptoQuant revealed that Bitcoin’s Percent Supply in Profit metric is moving closer to the 45% level. This area has historically coincided with deeper corrections and capitulation phases. The decline indicates that recent price weakness is no longer affecting only a small group of holders, as a growing portion of the Bitcoin supply has now lost its unrealized profit cushion.

CryptoQuant added that similar profitability compression in previous cycles often took place as weaker hands exited the market while long-term investors gradually accumulated coins.

The post Bitcoin’s (BTC) On-Chain Data Just Flashed a Major Warning Sign appeared first on CryptoPotato.

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Crypto News, June 11: Bitcoin Price Unfazed by Trump and His Threat to Flatten Tehran, Chainlink and Kraken Power FIFA World Cup

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Crypto markets open with Bitcoin price showing surprising strength despite Trump threats on Iran. Chainlink and World Cup partnership shows growing mainstream ties, offering a bright spot amid volatility from geopolitics and ETF outflows.

Trump hinted at an Iran deal days away after proportional strikes yesterday. Today, he told Fox News that without an agreement, the U.S. will “bomb the sh*t out of them” tonight. He also revealed that the U.S. is taking millions of barrels of oil out of Iran every night while Hormuz stays closed. Trump added that when it ends, oil will drop back to prior levels.

Bitcoin (BTC)
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Bitcoin Price Holds Firm Amid Trump Escalation

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Bitcoin price faces selling pressure from heavy U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF outflows as the streak continued into this week. It’s a prolonged outflow since May, with hundreds of millions exiting daily, led by BlackRock’s IBIT. Right now, the multi-week totals have reached billions withdrawn, yet Bitcoin price has held with even some bounces.

Bitcoin price holds firm despite Trump threats on Iran as Chainlink powers massive FIFA World Cup Deal alongside Kraken. Bullish?
Bitcoin ETFs Flows, Coinglass

Yesterday, soft-core inflation data unexpectedly supported risk assets, including crypto. Although hotter energy components add caution for us watching rate-cut odds. Geopolitical noise from Trump has not derailed resilience yet.

A fresh story from hours ago shows corporate buyers still competing hard. Strive CEO Matt Cole threw a joke to Michael Saylor that last week they bought 32 Bitcoin. Michael Saylor replied that he wants those 32 Bitcoin back. Strategy sold exactly 32 BTC in late May but maintains net buying overall, battling the fixed 21 million supply race.

Discover: The best crypto to diversify your portfolio with

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Chainlink and Kraken Power FIFA World Cup

Chainlink is now named to power official FIFA World Cup prediction markets, ADI Predictstreet, the tournament’s official partner. The deal will involve Myriad adopting Chainlink oracles for accurate, instant settlements across all 104 matches serving billions of fans. This marks a major real-world utility for Chainlink data feeds.

Chainlink follows Kraken, as a day earlier, it was named the Official Crypto Exchange Supporter of the World Cup. The partnership targets North America and Europe with fan activations, education, and giveaways.

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Moving to Artificial Intelligence, after it singlehandedly eliminated millions of human jobs, Tether placed a $1.4 billion bet on autonomous machine economies and AI. The focus is on paying robots via stablecoins as part of bigger institutional moves into real-world AI and crypto integration. This follows MetaMask’s AI wallet launch and XRPL’s similar payment pushes yesterday.

Questions linger after setbacks like Humanity Protocol issues, yet momentum for practical applications grows.

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Institutional Conviction and Real Utility Point Higher

Adoption headlines around Chainlink and the World Cup show crypto moving beyond speculation into everyday use cases. Billions of fans will interact with prediction markets settled instantly, proving Chainlink’s value at scale while Kraken brings new users through the World Cup platform.

Corporate accumulation continues despite ETF outflows. The recent Saylor exchange with Strive shows how big players view the fixed supply as increasingly scarce. Institutional players like Tether committing billions to AI-stablecoin systems signal long-term bets on utility that outlast short-term volatility.

Bitcoin price has likely absorbed Trump, Iran, geopolitics, and outflow pressure without breaking key levels.

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When the Iran situation resolves and oil normalizes, macro tailwinds could return quickly. Also, not to forget the Ukraine war, which could get a surprise peace deal. All, combined with real-world traction and AI-crypto experiments, the setup favors holders.

Discover: The best crypto to diversify your portfolio with

The post Crypto News, June 11: Bitcoin Price Unfazed by Trump and His Threat to Flatten Tehran, Chainlink and Kraken Power FIFA World Cup appeared first on Cryptonews.

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Crypto Just Put $2 Billion on the World Cup Winner, and It’s a Draw

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Crypto Just Put $2 Billion on the World Cup Winner, and It’s a Draw

Crypto prediction markets crossed $2 billion in World Cup winner bets as the tournament opened in Mexico City today, and millions of traders still can’t agree on who will lift the trophy. Spain and France share the lead at around 16%, while defending champion Argentina sits at just 9%.

The combined total across Polymarket ($1.9 billion) and Kalshi ($132 million) makes this the largest single prediction market event in crypto history. Polymarket runs 328 live World Cup markets and saw $66 million traded in the last 24 hours, with the pool of funds behind those bets sitting at $352.7 million.

World Cup Winner Bets on Polymarket. Source: Polymarket

The $2 Billion World Cup Betting Record

Polymarket opened the World Cup winner market in July 2025, giving traders nearly a year to weigh in before the opening whistle.

Volume accelerated as the tournament approached, with $66 million changing hands in a single 24-hour window. The combined Polymarket and Kalshi total sets a new record for the largest single prediction market event in crypto history.

Prediction markets have become a staple at every major 2025 event, from the US presidential race to the Super Bowl. The World Cup now represents the biggest test of crypto betting infrastructure yet.

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Spain, France, and the Defending Champion

Spain’s 16.5% and France’s 16.1% sit close enough that the market effectively rates them equal co-favourites. England and Portugal each sit at around 11%, with Brazil at 8%.

Defending champion Argentina sits at just 9%, lower than both European sides in the second tier.

The market is not saying Argentina cannot win, but two years on from their Qatar 2022 triumph, crypto bettors no longer rate Argentina as the team to beat. Every result in the group stage will shift that reading fast.

FIFA Goes On-Chain

This tournament also marks FIFA’s first official on-chain prediction infrastructure. ADI Predictstreet, an official FIFA partner powered by Chainlink, runs a separate market alongside Polymarket and Kalshi.

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The governing body of world football now operates in the same prediction market space that crypto traders have built.

The tournament has 38 days and 104 matches to settle what $2 billion in collective wisdom couldn’t. The market will not stay deadlocked.

The post Crypto Just Put $2 Billion on the World Cup Winner, and It’s a Draw appeared first on BeInCrypto.

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Citi Launches Blockchain Marketplace for Private Company Shares

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Citi Launches Blockchain Marketplace for Private Company Shares

Citigroup is launching a blockchain-based marketplace for private company shares, looking to give wealthy and institutional investors a new way to gain exposure to pre-IPO firms as Wall Street pushes deeper into tokenized finance.

According to The Wall Street Journal, the platform will use tokenized depositary receipts issued by Citi, which represent ownership interests in private companies. The offering will initially be initially available to foreign investors, with US access planned at a later date.

The initiative allows investors to invest in private company shares “right next to their Apple stock, Citi digital asset executive Artem Korenyuk told the Journal.

Major banks are increasingly adopting tokenization to modernize traditional financial markets. Citi argues that structuring private investments through tokenized depositary receipts offers a more transparent alternative to special-purpose vehicles (SPVs), which have become a common, but often opaque, way for investors to access private companies.

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That distinction is notable as interest in pre-IPO investing surges. Several fintech platforms, including Robinhood, have explored offering tokenized exposure to private companies such as OpenAI, though those products generally provide indirect economic exposure rather than legal ownership of the underlying shares. OpenAI last year cautioned investors that these so-called tokenized stocks do not represent equity in the company. 

OpenAI’s warning to investors on buying tokenized shares. Source: OpenAI Newsroom

The underlying infrastructure of the venture’s blockchain will be operated by SIX Digital Exchange, a subsidiary of Switzerland’s stock exchange operator, SIX Group. Citi said it is already in discussions with several large private companies about making their shares available on the platform. 

Related: Crypto Biz: Crypto infrastructure spending rises as ETF appetite cools

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Private markets tend to outperform over time

Growing interest in pre-IPO investing reflects a broader shift toward private markets, where companies are staying private for longer and generating more of their value before reaching public exchanges.

Last December, the American Investment Council published a report citing PitchBook data showing that private equity outperformed the S&P 500 index across five-, 10-, 15- and 20-year investment horizons. This was seen despite the index delivering stronger returns over shorter time periods.

Private equity has outperformed the broader market over longer time horizons. Source: American Investment Council

At the time, American Investment Council President and CEO Will Dunham argued that private equity’s long-term outperformance strengthened the case for expanding retail access through investment vehicles such as 401(k) plans.

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The sector’s strong returns, coupled with the trend of companies staying private for longer, have fueled investor interest in pre-IPO opportunities and heightened anticipation for major public listings.

The frenzy surrounding SpaceX’s IPO underscores the trend, with Bloomberg reporting that retail investors alone have placed more than $70 billion in orders for Friday’s offering as of Thursday. Elon Musk’s rocket and AI company is targeting a valuation of $1.8 trillion after its public debut.

Related: Kraken’s xStocks tops $25B in volume with more than 80K onchain holders

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Backpack and Sunrise Roll Out Tokenized SpaceX Shares on Solana Chain

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Brian Armstrong's Bold Prediction: AI Agents Will Soon Dominate Global Financial

TLDR

  • SPCX represents tokenized SpaceX shares issued through Backpack Securities.
  • Token can be redeemed for underlying equity via regulated brokerage access.
  • Sunrise provides infrastructure for issuance and Solana integration.
  • SPCX trades on Solana with self-custody wallet support.
  • Launch aligns with SpaceX’s Nasdaq listing day for dual-market access.

SpaceX shares will begin trading on Solana alongside Nasdaq listing via tokenization. Backpack Securities and Sunrise will launch SPCX representing SpaceX equity onchain. The token enables trading, redemption, and self-custody across Solana venues.

SpaceX Stock Token Launches on Solana Network

Backpack issues SPCX as a tokenized claim on SpaceX shares. Eligible users can redeem tokens for underlying shares through brokerage. The firms link brokerage accounts with blockchain settlement systems.

Sunrise provides infrastructure supporting the issuance and distribution of SPCX tokens. The token targets Solana for fast settlement and continuous trading access. Holders may transfer SPCX within supported wallets and platforms.

Backpack states SPCX can move between the token and equity forms. The structure allows redemption and re-tokenization through verified accounts. Trading will operate outside normal market hours on Solana.

Solana Trading Expansion for Tokenized Equities

The launch places SpaceX exposure onchain on listing day. Solana supports continuous trading beyond traditional exchange hours. Backpack integrates custody tools with regulated brokerage services.

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SPCX can be stored in self-custody wallets securely. Users can trade tokens across supported Solana venues globally. The system mirrors traditional equity ownership through blockchain records.

Backpack CEO Armani Ferrante described portability across financial systems. “It is making underlying securities portable across financial systems.” The statement highlights integration between brokerage and blockchain rails.

Tokenized equities continue expanding across crypto markets this year. Firms experiment with blockchain rails for traditional asset exposure. SPCX enters this trend with regulated brokerage backing.

Solana supports high-speed settlement for tokenized trading systems. Developers build infrastructure for continuous financial market access. Backpack uses this network for SPCX distribution and trading.

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Sunrise coordinates the issuance process with regulated brokerage partners. Token structure links shares with redeemable blockchain units. Users access SPCX through approved wallets and platforms.

Nasdaq listing proceeds separately from onchain SPCX trading. Both markets operate simultaneously for SpaceX exposure access. This dual structure enables parallel price discovery mechanisms.

Backpack ensures compliance through brokerage custody arrangements. Redemption requests convert tokens into underlying equity shares. Verification processes govern eligible participant access.

Solana venues support peer-to-peer SPCX transfers. Self-custody options give users direct asset control. Trading remains active beyond conventional market schedules.

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The product aligns tokenized finance with traditional equity markets. Backpack integrates brokerage systems with blockchain infrastructure layers. Sunrise manages technical issuance workflows for token distribution.

SPCX availability begins with the SpaceX Nasdaq listing day. Trading access expands through Solana-based applications and wallets. Backpack continues rollout across supported jurisdictions and partners.

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Crypto Trading Volumes Plunge to 2-Year Lows as Market Fatigue Sets In

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New data from on-chain analytics firm Santiment shows that trading activity across crypto’s largest non-stablecoin assets has fallen to levels not seen since 2024.

According to the company, the slowdown is pointing to a market where traders have largely stepped back, a condition that has often appeared before relief rallies when confidence eventually comes back.

Crypto Traders Retreat as Volumes Dry Up

Santiment’s analysis, shared on X on June 11, noted that top-cap assets are seeing two-year low trading volumes and framed that as a potential capitulation signal rather than the start of another leg down.

“Traders appear reluctant to aggressively buy or sell as macro uncertainty, geopolitical tensions, and recent liquidations keep participants on the sidelines,” wrote the firm.

While low activity can appear bearish, Santiment noted that periods of weak participation have historically come just before some of crypto’s strongest recoveries. The firm said markets rarely reverse higher when investors are actively chasing prices and that turning points often emerge when traders become disengaged and expect little movement.

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Data from CoinGecko supported Santiment’s take on trading flow, whereby the 24-hour trading volume of Bitcoin amounted to about $30 billion, dropping by almost 20% when compared to that of the previous day. Ethereum’s, though, was a much more modest 1.40%, while Tron (TRX) and BNB saw activity dip by 4% and 10%, respectively.

Still, some altcoins registered upticks, with Solana (SOL), for instance, seeing a 23% jump in its 24-hour trading volume while that of Ripple’s XRP went up 11%.

Santiment says that this type of market situation, where capital is sitting idly despite continued development and institutional involvement in the industry, is becoming more like one looking for a new reason to make a move.

“If confidence begins returning, just a small amount of inflows could be enough to spark a much needed relief rally as sidelined capital re-enters the sector,” was their verdict.

On-Chain Signals Are Not Helping

The lack of participation from crypto investors isn’t happening in a vacuum, given that the on-chain backdrop has grown more difficult recently.

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For example, data published earlier this week by CryptoQuant contributor Axel Adler Jr. showed that BTC’s Realized Cap 30-day change had fallen to -1.1%, the deepest level of capital outflows since mid-March, with around $12 billion leaving the network since a high point in May.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s adjusted SOPR, which measures whether coins are being sold at a profit or loss, has stayed below 1.0 for 13 straight days. That reading means that the BTC moved on-chain is being sold at an average loss, which Adler associated with weaker holders leaving the market.

The post Crypto Trading Volumes Plunge to 2-Year Lows as Market Fatigue Sets In appeared first on CryptoPotato.

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Here’s why bitcoin ETF outflows may have little to do with SpaceX mania

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Crash risk rises as bond yields surge

Exchange flows remain broadly normal, while stablecoin supply has seen little meaningful contraction. More speculative corners of the digital asset market also continue attracting capital. Products linked to higher-risk crypto assets are still gathering inflows, something Dori says would be unlikely if investors were abandoning the asset class altogether.

Perhaps the strongest argument against the IPO-rotation theory comes from derivatives markets.

Dori pointed to a decline in CME bitcoin futures open interest that has coincided with ETF redemptions. That relationship suggests a significant portion of the outflows may be linked to the unwinding of cash-and-carry arbitrage trades rather than investors reallocating toward equity offerings.

A cash-and-carry trade is a popular institutional arbitrage strategy that seeks to profit from the gap between bitcoin’s spot price and futures prices. Investors buy spot bitcoin, often through an ETF, while also selling bitcoin futures contracts. As long as futures trade at a premium to spot prices, the investor can earn a relatively low-risk yield when the contracts converge at expiry.

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When that premium narrows, or funding conditions become less attractive, traders unwind the position by selling their spot exposure and closing their futures shorts. That process can generate ETF outflows even when investors are not turning bearish on bitcoin itself. Instead, the arbitrage opportunity has simply become less profitable.

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Raydium Hit With $1.34M Exploit via Fake LP Tokens on Deprecated Solana Pools

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Raydium, the Solana-based decentralized exchange, was drained of $1.34 million on June 10, 2026, when an attacker exploited five deprecated liquidity pools from its legacy AMM V3 program, a smart contract vulnerability that had sat dormant on-chain for five years.

The attacker, whose Solana address ends in ‘Bq33QVk,’ made off with approximately $900,000 in USDC, $357,000 in SOL, and $86,000 in RAY tokens.

After draining the pools, the exploiter bridged all funds from Solana to Ethereum via a cross-chain bridge, then deposited them into Tornado Cash to obscure the trail, a standard cross-chain laundering sequence that leaves recovery prospects slim.

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The LP Mint Validation Flaw: How Fake Tokens Emptied Real Pools

The root cause was a smart contract vulnerability in Raydium’s legacy AMM V3 program, a DeFi exploit enabled by insufficient LP token validation. In any standard automated market maker, liquidity pool shares are represented by LP tokens that track a provider’s proportional stake. When funds are withdrawn, the contract verifies the LP tokens being burned match the pool’s legitimate mint.

Raydium’s deprecated AMM V3 program failed to perform that check. The attacker created a fake SPL token mint unrelated to any real Raydium liquidity pool, minted a single unit of that counterfeit LP token, then called the legacy withdraw function.

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The old contract treated the attacker as a 100% LP shareholder and released the entire pool’s reserves.

Source: SolScan

The sequence was repeated across all five deprecated pools, Sollet USDT–RAY, Sollet ETH–RAY, SRM–RAY, USDC–RAY, and RAY–SOL, draining approximately 150,177 RAY, 5,603 SOL, and 893,700 USDC in total.

Pseudonymous Raydium contributor 0xInfra confirmed on X that the attack was caused by “a self-contained logic flaw” and explicitly ruled out any key compromise or authority-level issue, meaning no propagation risk exists to current Raydium programs.

The December 2022 Raydium hack, a roughly $4.4 million loss caused by a private key theft – had pushed the team to harden operational security and migrate to audited contracts.

The June 2026 incident is a structurally different failure: not an operational breach, but a legacy codebase left callable on-chain with real assets still sitting inside it.

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Tornado Cash Exit: Funds Bridge to Ethereum, Trail Goes Cold

On-chain investigators flagged the exploit in real time as the attacker aggregated USDC, SOL, and RAY across the five drained pools before moving cross-chain.

The full balance was bridged from Solana to Ethereum, then routed through KuCoin and FixedFloat before landing in Tornado Cash, the privacy protocol that remains the exit ramp of choice for DeFi exploit proceeds.

Source: PackShield

Community analysts tracking the wallet ending in ‘Bq33QVk’ confirmed the complete cross-chain exit, noting the attacker did not attempt to liquidate funds through Solana-native venues.

Once inside Tornado Cash, transaction-level tracing breaks down. No funds are reported frozen or flagged by centralized exchanges at this time.

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No Active Users Affected, Raydium Treasury to Cover Losses

The most important immediate fact for Raydium users: no active accounts or current pools were touched. “No current users of Raydium are affected by this exploit or would have been able to interact with these pools through the UI since their deprecation,” 0xInfra stated.

The deprecated AMM V3 pools were invisible in the front-end and inaccessible through normal user flows.

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Raydium confirmed it will repay all stolen funds in full using its protocol treasury. Legacy AMM V3 program IDs are being formally retired to prevent further calls, and the team has launched a comprehensive security review of all mainnet and legacy code paths. The reimbursement timeline has not been specified publicly.

RAY token is up around 2% in the 24 hours following the incident, trading at $0.578. The token has shed 7% over the past week amid broader Solana ecosystem weakness and sits 96.6% below its all-time high of $16.83.

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The post Raydium Hit With $1.34M Exploit via Fake LP Tokens on Deprecated Solana Pools appeared first on Cryptonews.

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Bitcoin Rises Above $63,000 as Trump Cancels Iran Strikes and Signals Peace Deal

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Bitcoin Rises Above $63,000 as Trump Cancels Iran Strikes and Signals Peace Deal


Bitcoin climbed above $63,000 Thursday after President Donald Trump announced via Truth Social that he was canceling scheduled U.S. military strikes against Iran and signaling that a multi-nation agreement was close. Trump wrote that “discussions with the Islamic Republic of Iran have been brought… Read the full story at The Defiant

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Japan crypto bill advances; could widen ETF access and tax reform

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Crypto Breaking News

Japan’s Lower House has moved a bill that would bring crypto assets under the country’s financial instruments framework, signaling a potential shift toward regulated market access such as exchange-traded funds and a more favorable tax posture for digital assets. Bloomberg reported that the legislation aims to regulate crypto assets more like traditional securities, imposing stricter trading rules as part of a broader market growth push. The bill is expected to advance further after consideration by the Upper House and could take effect next year pending final enactment.

The proposed changes would align crypto assets with the regulatory treatment afforded to stocks and bonds, introducing tighter governance and disclosure requirements. At a macro level, the move reflects an ongoing effort to integrate digital assets into Japan’s financial markets while enhancing oversight and investor protections. If enacted, the reform would also reframe the tax landscape for crypto holdings, with potential implications for both retail and institutional participants.

Official records indicate the bill cleared the Committee on Financial Affairs on June 10, though the plenary vote status on the House of Representatives’ tracking page had not yet been updated at the time of reporting. The procedural steps remain subject to confirmation by the Upper House, which would complete the legislative process before implementation.

Japan’s broader regulatory trajectory has been evolving for months, with signals that crypto would move from a payments-oriented regime to a financial-market framework. In November 2025, Asahi Shimbun reported that the Financial Services Agency (FSA) had decided to apply the Financial Instruments and Exchange Act to crypto assets, including Bitcoin, Ether, and other tokens traded on local exchanges. In April 2026, FSA materials stated the proposal would relocate crypto-asset transaction rules from the Payment Services Act to the Financial Instruments and Exchange Act, marking a substantive shift in the regulatory architecture.

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The FSA described a framework in which crypto assets would be treated as financial products distinct from traditional securities, while introducing disclosure duties, tighter exchange oversight, insider-trading restrictions, and steeper penalties for unregistered operators. The proposed regime would require crypto-asset transaction businesses to publish information about the assets they handle, and issuers of certain assets would face disclosure obligations during offerings or secondary distributions. Bloomberg again highlighted that such a regime could create a pathway for crypto-tracking ETFs, offering Japanese investors a regulated channel to gain exposure beyond direct exchange trading or holdings in listed companies with token interests.

Key takeaways

  • The Lower House appears to have advanced a bill to subject crypto assets to the Financial Instruments and Exchange Act, moving regulation closer to equities and bonds and potentially enabling new market structures such as crypto-tracking ETFs.
  • The bill contemplates shifting crypto-asset rules from the Payment Services Act to the Financial Instruments and Exchange Act, with enhanced disclosure, oversight, and penalties designed to bolster investor protection and market integrity.
  • Tax provisions would reclassify crypto capital gains with a flat 20% rate—aligned with stocks and bonds—down from a current maximum of 55%. The change is slated to take effect in 2028, subject to final passage and transitional rules.
  • Authorities have disclosed that the bill cleared the Committee on Financial Affairs as of June 10, with plenary-vote status pending final confirmation, reflecting a methodical progression through the legislative process.
  • The reform could broaden institutional access to regulated crypto exposure via ETFs and other financial-market instruments, potentially integrating digital assets into mainstream investment and risk-management frameworks in Japan.

Regulatory trajectory and scope

The core objective of the bill is to reposition crypto assets within Japan’s financial-market regime, elevating their regulatory status from a payments-focused perimeter to a framework that governs financial products. The proposed move to bring crypto under the Financial Instruments and Exchange Act would harmonize trading rules with those applied to traditional securities, futures, and related instruments. In doing so, the regime would introduce standardized disclosure for asset managers and issuers, as well as stronger oversight of trading venues and intermediaries.

Key features under consideration include classifying crypto assets as financial products distinct from conventional securities, while imposing requirements applicable to market participants, including tighter supervision of exchanges and enhanced penalties for unregistered operators. The scheme would obligate crypto-asset transaction operators to publish information about the assets they handle, a disclosure duty intended to improve transparency for investors and regulators alike. Issuers of certain assets would face disclosure obligations during offerings or secondary distributions, aligning issuance practices with broader financial-market standards.

These measures echo a broader regulatory trend observed in many jurisdictions seeking to reduce information asymmetry and systemic risk associated with digital assets. Notably, the move would align Japan with global policy directions that emphasize market integrity, investor protection, and clear accountability for participants across the crypto value chain. The European Union’s MiCA framework and ongoing U.S. regulatory developments provide a contemporaneous backdrop for such a shift, reinforcing the trend toward formalization of crypto markets within traditional financial infrastructure.

Tax reforms and market access for investors

A central economic dimension of the bill is the proposed tax treatment of crypto gains. The current regime, which can reach up to 55% in capital gains tax, would be replaced by a flat 20% rate on crypto profits, aligning with the tax treatment of stocks and bonds. The timing of the tax reform—policy intent to be effective in 2028—reflects an orderly transition that would grant businesses and individuals time to adjust to the new framework. For institutions, the change could alter after-tax returns and impact portfolio construction, tax planning, and accounting practices tied to digital asset exposures.

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From a compliance perspective, the tax realignment sits within a broader policy objective to increase predictability and coherence across asset classes. For crypto firms and asset managers, this could translate into more standardized tax reporting and a clearer line between taxable crypto activities and other financial instruments. For banks and custodians, the reform could influence product design, treasury management, and client advisory services, especially as the market explores regulated wrappers or ETF structures linked to digital assets.

In parallel with tax considerations, the potential for crypto-tracking ETFs marks a significant market-access development. Such products would provide a regulated, exchange-traded vehicle for investors seeking diversified exposure to crypto assets without direct custody of tokens. While the possibility has been flagged by market observers, the actual availability will depend on the final regulatory framework, licensing requirements, and the operational readiness of market participants to meet disclosure, custody, and liquidity standards demanded by Japan’s evolving regime.

Impact on market structure, compliance posture, and policy context

From an institutional perspective, bringing crypto assets into a financial-instrument framework would sharpen compliance expectations across the ecosystem. Exchanges, brokers, asset managers, and issuers would operate under more explicit rules around transaction reporting, asset information disclosure, and governance. The alignment with the Financial Instruments and Exchange Act would also shape AML/KYC programs, recordkeeping, and supervisory oversight, thereby enhancing regulatory certainty for both domestic and cross-border participants.

Beyond Japan’s borders, the reform integrates into a broader international policy discourse on crypto regulation. The MiCA framework in the European Union and U.S. regulatory developments reflect a global shift toward treating digital assets as regulated financial products with explicit consumer protections, capital-raising guidelines, and systemic-risk controls. For multinational firms active in Japan, the legislative trajectory underscores the need to harmonize compliance programs with domestic rules while monitoring developments in other jurisdictions that could influence cross-border operations, licensing equivalencies, and supervisory cooperation.

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Another practical consideration concerns the balance between innovation and control. While tighter rules may raise the bar for market participants, they also create clearer paths for institutional involvement—ranging from regulated trading venues to custodian services and product issuances. The forthcoming Upper House deliberations will determine the pace and scope of the reform, including whether the ETF pathway receives formal approval and how disclosure standards will be operationalized across asset classes and offerings.

Closing perspective

Japan’s legislative move to bring crypto assets under a financial-market framework represents a pivotal moment for regulatory clarity, investor protection, and market accessibility. As the process unfolds, watchers should monitor the Upper House deliberations, the final articulation of the tax timetable, and the concrete rules surrounding disclosures and market surveillance. The unfolding framework could influence not only domestic capital markets but also how international entities align their compliance programs and risk controls with Japan’s evolving policy posture.

Risk & affiliate notice: Crypto assets are volatile and capital is at risk. This article may contain affiliate links. Read full disclosure

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Three XRP Setups Signaling a Potential Price Dip Under $1 in June

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Three XRP Setups Signaling a Potential Price Dip Under $1 in June

XRP (XRP) charts are painting multiple bearish patterns this month with a downside target under $1.

Key takeaways:

  • XRP is forming head-and-shoulders and bear flag setups on its shorter-time frame chart.
  • An on-chain metric is further signaling weak demand or capitulation sentiment among traders.

Head-and-shoulders setup hints at 10% XRP decline

Since June 5, the XRP price has formed what appears to be a head-and-shoulders (H&S) pattern.

The setup develops when the price forms three peaks atop a common neckline support, where the middle peak, called the “head,” is higher than the other two, the “shoulders.”

An H&S pattern typically resolves when the price breaks decisively below the neckline support, with its downside target measured by subtracting the breakdown level from the structure’s maximum height.

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XRP/USD four-hour price chart. Source: TradingView

As of Thursday, XRP was forming the pattern’s right shoulder, eyeing an initial dip toward the neckline near $1.09.

Applying the technical rule, the target for June is around $0.99, down roughly 10%, if the price breaks below the neckline.

Conversely, a clear break above the right shoulder’s peak at around $1.12, a level also aligning with the 20-period exponential moving average (20-period EMA, green) on the four-hour chart, may invalidate the H&S pattern.

In that case, XRP may rally toward the 50-period EMA (red) near $1.15, up 4.5% from the current price levels.

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Another bearish setup hints at a lower XRP price target

XRP’s four-hour chart also shows a bear flag, adding weight to the sub-$1 bearish outlook.

A bear flag forms when the price consolidates inside a rising channel after a sharp sell-off. It typically signals a pause before the prior downtrend resumes.

XRP/USD four-hour chart. Source: TradingView

As of Thursday, XRP was testing the flag’s lower trendline near $1.10. A decisive four-hour close below this level could confirm the breakdown.

Applying the technical rule, XRP’s bear flag target sits near $0.94, down roughly 15% from current prices.

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The relative strength index (RSI) near 43 supports the bearish view, showing weak momentum below the neutral 50 level.

However, a rebound above $1.12 would weaken the setup. A stronger move above the 50-period EMA near $1.15 could delay the selloff and send XRP toward the flag’s upper trend line near $1.18–$1.20.

On-chain data points to dip toward $0.96

XRP’s MVRV pricing bands suggest the price still has room to fall toward the lower green zone.

XRP MVRV extreme deviation pricing bands. Source: Glassnode

For new traders, MVRV compares XRP’s market price with the average price at which coins last moved on-chain. In simple terms, it shows whether holders are sitting on large paper profits or losses.

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When price trades near the upper bands, the market is usually overheated. When it falls toward the lower bands, it often signals stress, weak demand, or capitulation.

Related: XRP transaction demand falls 91.5% as traders focus on $0.65 support

That lower green band has acted like a bear-market magnet for XRP in previous cycles. It declined toward or below the same zone during major downturns in 2018, 2020 and 2022 before finding stronger support later.

The next major downside target sits near the green lower band near $0.96, about 13% below current prices if history repeats.

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