TLDR:

• Bitcoin open interest peaked at 381,000 BTC across all exchanges during the October 2025 cycle top.

• Binance recorded a 20.8% open interest drop between October 6 and 11, with Bybit and Gate.io falling 37%.

• Post-peak declines have persisted monthly, with Binance down an additional 39.3% since the market top.

• Shrinking derivatives exposure signals active risk reduction, making a sustained Bitcoin rally difficult.

Bitcoin’s price recovery has stalled, and the derivatives market may hold the answer. Open interest data across major exchanges shows a sustained and deepening contraction since the latest cycle peak.

Speculative activity that once fueled Bitcoin’s climb has now reversed course entirely. The data suggests that the collapse in derivatives positioning is playing a central role in keeping Bitcoin’s price under pressure.

A Record Build-Up Followed by a Sharp Collapse

Bitcoin’s derivatives market expanded aggressively throughout this cycle. On Binance, Bitcoin-denominated open interest peaked at 120,000 BTC in October 2025, compared to 94,300 BTC after the November 2021 high. That growth reflected an enormous build-up in speculative exposure heading into the cycle top.

Across all exchanges combined, open interest reached 381,000 BTC at the peak, up from 221,000 BTC in April 2024.

Analyst Darkfost noted on X that “speculation during this cycle reached unprecedented levels, and both novice and professional investors have paid the price.”

The unwind began swiftly after the October sell-off. Between October 6 and October 11 alone, Binance recorded a 20.8% drop in open interest. Bybit and Gate.io saw even steeper declines of 37% each during that same five-day window.

That rapid contraction removed a large volume of leveraged positioning from the market. Without that speculative support, Bitcoin lost a key structural driver that had been pushing prices higher throughout the cycle.

Why the Derivatives Slump Keeps Price Recovery Out of Reach

The contraction has not stopped at that initial sell-off. Since then, declines have continued in nearly every subsequent month across major platforms. Binance has fallen an additional 39.3%, while Bybit is down 33% and BitMEX has dropped 24%.

Darkfost pointed out that the derivatives market “was definitely a primary driver during this cycle, but it has also become a key force behind the decline.” As open interest shrinks, so does the fuel needed to sustain upward price momentum.

Traders are either voluntarily reducing exposure or being forced out through liquidations. Either way, the result is the same; fewer active positions mean less buying pressure and thinner market participation overall.

Under these conditions, any price rally lacks the depth to hold. Without a meaningful recovery in open interest, Bitcoin remains vulnerable to further selling pressure.

Derivatives data continues to serve as one of the clearest indicators of where market sentiment truly stands.