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Bitcoin’s price discovery is moving to Chicago

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Bitcoin's price discovery is moving to Chicago

Bitcoin , once hailed as an anti-establishment asset and antithesis to Wall Street, may now bend to sharp traders from those same floors.

Trading in the leading cryptocurrency is steadily shifting toward CME Group, and the exchange’s move to 24/7 derivatives later this year could cement its role as the dominant venue for institutional crypto risk.

The change removes one of the last advantages held by crypto exchanges: nonstop market access.

“You’ll see more traditional hedge fund managers getting more into the asset class, because they’ll be able to trade it on instruments they know, without having to upgrade their tech or move their signals,” Karl Naim, Chief Commercial Officer at XBTO, told CoinDesk. “Why would they want to take a counterparty risk of an entity they don’t know?”

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CME already leads regulated bitcoin futures markets by open interest, and its contracts underpin much of the hedging activity tied to U.S. spot ETFs. Until now, however, trading paused over the weekend, producing the well-known “CME gaps” and leaving institutional investors unable to adjust positions while offshore exchanges continued operating.

Around-the-clock trading removes that constraint. Institutions that once relied solely on exchange-traded funds (ETFs) or avoided weekend exposure will be able to hedge continuously, tightening arbitrage windows between prices for regulated futures and offshore perpetual swaps.

As those gaps disappear, so too does the need for large allocators to maintain exposure on crypto exchanges simply for access. For institutions that prioritize regulatory clarity and established clearinghouses, CME begins to look less like an alternative and more like the default.

Even crypto exchange executives are aware of this. In January, OKX President Hong Fang wrote in a CoinDesk op-ed that crypto derivatives trading could one day rival or even surpass spot volumes on major global exchanges, making U.S. regulated volatility markets an even stronger anchor for bitcoin price discovery worldwide.

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Institutions calling the shots

For Naim, the shift reflects a broader evolution in how capital enters bitcoin. What began as a grassroots activism by retail traders chasing BTC as an alternative to Wall Street has flipped upside down, with traditional institutions now calling the shots.

“Today we speak to a lot of the sovereigns, a lot of the institutions. They go for what they know,” he said, describing allocators that first accessed the asset through spot ETFs before considering more complex strategies.

With institutional positioning carrying more weight, bitcoin’s short-term direction increasingly reflects global risk sentiment.

“If [Trump attacks Iran], obviously what we’re going to see is that it’s going to be all risk off,” Naim said, referring to a potential forced regime change in Iran by the U.S. “Gold already started rallying. Equities will go down. Bitcoin will go down.”

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In that framework, bitcoin behaves less like a standalone crypto trade and more like a macro instrument, priced alongside equities and commodities rather than apart from them.

Naim acknowledged the irony.

“Bitcoin was all about decentralization,” he said.

But as institutional capital scales and liquidity consolidates within regulated clearinghouses, the infrastructure surrounding the asset is becoming increasingly centralized — because institutional money chases risk assets, not risky platforms.

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Crypto World

US Spot Bitcoin ETFs Hit Strongest Gains Since February

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US Spot Bitcoin ETFs Hit Strongest Gains Since February

US-listed spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have renewed the pace of inflows, recording their largest daily flows in weeks.

Spot Bitcoin (BTC) ETFs posted $471 million in inflows on Monday, the largest daily inflow since Feb. 25, when the funds attracted $507 million, according to SoSoValue.

The inflows came as the Bitcoin price briefly approached $70,000 before retreating below $69,000, according to CoinGecko data.

The volatility occurred amid ongoing geopolitical pressure as well as renewed concerns over Bitcoin’s quantum resistance, while the Crypto Fear & Greed Index remained in “Extreme Fear” at 13.

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BlackRock’s IBIT leads the inflows at $182 million

BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) led the inflows with about $182 million, followed by the Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) with $147 million, according to Farside data.

The ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB) ranked third with nearly $119 million, marking its largest daily inflow since July 10, 2025.

On Monday, the blockchain analytics platform Arkham observed that ETF outflows slowed to a halt last week, with major issuers selling just about $16.6 million in Bitcoin. ARK Invest’s ARKB ETF purchased the most BTC, or $34 million in a week, it said.

Source: Arkham

Following the three trading sessions in April so far, US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded about $307 million in net inflows, bringing total assets under management (AUM) back above $90 billion.

Related: Strategy adds $330M BTC as paper losses top $14.5B in Q1

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In March, Bitcoin ETFs posted $1.3 billion in inflows, marking the first monthly gain after outflows of $1.61 billion in January and $207 million in February.

Ether ETFs record $120 million in inflows

US spot Ether (ETH) ETFs followed the recovery in sentiment on Monday, recording $120 million in inflows and offsetting $78 million in outflows from the prior two trading sessions.

Ether ETFs posted three consecutive months of losses, bringing total outflows for the period to about $770 million.

Other altcoin ETFs saw muted activity, with XRP (XRP) recording zero inflows on Monday, while Solana (SOL) ETFs posted about $247,000 in inflows.

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