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Bitcoin’s war rally is forcing a rethink beyond ‘digital gold’

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(CoinDesk)

Bitcoin’s outperformance during the Iran conflict doesn’t fit the standard playbook, and Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan thinks he knows why.

The largest cryptocurrency has gained 12% since U.S. and Israeli airstrikes began Feb. 28, while the S&P 500 has fallen 1% and gold 10%. For an asset routinely dismissed as a leveraged tech bet during risk-off episodes, that performance has forced a rethink.

In a post on X, Hougan reframed bitcoin as two simultaneous bets. The first is the familiar “digital gold” thesis, competing for share of the $38 trillion store-of-value market.

The second is what he calls an out-of-the-money call option on bitcoin functioning as an actual currency, a bet he says most investors have treated as borderline irrelevant until now.

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(CoinDesk)

The Iran conflict changed the math on the second bet. Iran said it will collect a $1-per-barrel toll in bitcoin from ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, the equivalent of roughly $20 million per day.

The levy is one of the first real-world examples of a sovereign state using bitcoin as a settlement mechanism for physical commerce, even if the circumstances were far from ideal.

“In a world where countries have weaponized their financial rails, bitcoin is emerging as an apolitical alternative,” Hougan wrote, tracing the shift back to the U.S. kicking Russia off the SWIFT network in 2022, a move France’s finance minister called a financial “nuclear bomb” at the time.

The options framework is what makes the argument worth watching.

Options gain value when either the probability of hitting the strike price improves or the volatility of the underlying asset increases. Hougan argues the Iran conflict delivered both simultaneously, raising the odds of bitcoin being used as a currency while increasing the volatility of the global monetary order.

If his framing holds, it implies that bitcoin should rally during future geopolitical conflicts, particularly those involving countries caught between the U.S. and Chinese financial systems, and that bitcoin’s total addressable market is significantly larger than the gold market alone.

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The counterpoint is that Iran’s use of bitcoin occurs as a sanctioned state acting out of necessity, not preference. It says more about the limits of dollar-denominated enforcement than it does about bitcoin’s readiness to function as a neutral settlement layer. The infrastructure for that, stablecoin settlement, cross-border payment rails, sovereign wallet adoption, remains early-stage at best.

But Hougan’s core observation stands. The market is pricing bitcoin differently during this conflict than during any prior geopolitical shock, and the “digital gold” thesis alone doesn’t explain why.

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S&P, Nasdaq hit records as BTC stalls at $75,000, 40% off October peak

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Bitcoin's 24-hour price (CoinDesk)

The tone in bitcoin has been more positive of late, but the rally from the February lows has been rather meek, with any attempts to return to $80,000 quickly getting shot down.

U.S. stocks, though, continue their remarkable run in the face of the Iran war, with the Nasdaq gaining 1.6% for its 11th consecutive daily advance and closing at a new record high above 24,000. The S&P 500 added 0.8% and also touched a new record above 7,000.

Bitcoin made another push to break above $75,000 on Wednesday, but the move stalled once again at a threshold that has repeatedly capped gains in recent months.

Bitcoin's 24-hour price (CoinDesk)

Trading recently around $75,134, bitcoin was higher by 1.45% over the past 24 hours, according to CoinDesk data.

Crypto-linked stocks moved higher alongside the broader risk-on tone. Coinbase (COIN) rose 6.2%, Robinhood (HOOD) jumped more than 10%, and bitcoin treasury firm Strategy (MSTR) gained 4.4%.

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While equities have fully recovered and pushed into new highs, bitcoin is still playing catch-up after its sharp February drop to $60,000.

“Since yesterday we’ve rejected from the top end of this two-month range,” said Jasper de Maere, trader at Wintermute. “It feels like the flow picture, which looked encouraging yesterday, is already being questioned.”

For now, he pointed to $72,000 as the key level to watch. Holding above it would keep the breakout narrative intact, allowing for further attempts at the range highs.

A break lower, however, could see bitcoin slip back into consolidation as volatility compresses, he added.

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63,000 BTC Profit Realized as Bitcoin Tops $76K; Market Rebound?

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Crypto Breaking News

Bitcoin’s rally above $76,000 cooled on Tuesday as short-term holders started taking profits at the strongest pace seen in 2026, even as longer-term investors continued to accumulate. The dynamic—profit-taking from new entrants meeting persistent demand from whales—could influence BTC’s ability to push into the $80,000 zone in the near term.

Data from on-chain trackers show a contrasting pair of behaviors: fresh buyers and short-term traders trimming gains versus entrenched holders quietly adding to their stacks. The tug-of-war helps explain why Bitcoin has paused near a key resistance level while still showing underlying bid support from larger investors.

Key takeaways

  • Short-term holders booked profits: Bitcoin in profit moved to exchanges reached 63,000 BTC on April 14, the highest in 2026, compared with a 44,800 BTC spike on January 14.
  • Fresh supply to exchanges and local profit-taking: The 1 day-to-1 week cohort transferred roughly 2,000 BTC back to Binance while BTC hovered near $76,000, suggesting coins are rotating into sell-side liquidity at a key resistance level.
  • Early-stage cooling signal from buyers: Crypto analyst Amr Taha described the move as the first clear wave of profit-taking after the retest of monthly highs, signaling a natural cooling of upside momentum.
  • Whales step in as buyers of last resort: Inflow of about 71,000 BTC into accumulation addresses represented the largest bullish influx since early 2022, as large holders absorbed available supply from short-term sellers.
  • Liquidation landscape hints at a near-term dip before a potential rebound: The market’s liquidity map shows a cluster of long liquidations around $73,000 (about $1.4 billion) and $70,500 (around $3.5 billion in long positions at risk), while a move toward $80,000 could expose roughly $2 billion in leveraged short bets.

Profit-taking versus whale-driven demand

On-chain analysis indicates a sharp contrast between the actions of newer market entrants and those of veteran holders. The surge in BTC moved to exchanges by short-term holders—63,000 BTC in profit on April 14—marks the highest such metric in 2026, following a notable spike of 44,800 BTC on January 14. This activity aligns with a broader pattern: investors new to the market take profits near obvious resistance, a tactic that can temper momentum in bear-market cycles.

Separately, the 1-day-to-1-week cohort reallocated nearly 2,000 BTC back to Binance during the same window, suggesting freshly acquired coins are being used to provision sell-side liquidity as BTC trades around the $76,000 mark. Crypto analyst Amr Taha framed this as the first clear wave of profit-taking after the retest of monthly highs, a signal that momentum may be cooling rather than reversing decisively.

Against this backdrop, a markedly different flow emerged from the so-called smart money. A tweet from market watcher CW highlighted a single-day inflow of more than 71,000 BTC into accumulation addresses—the largest bullish influx in years. This pattern implies that large holders are absorbing supply from the sellers, potentially stabilizing price action while preserving upside potential for longer-horizon players.

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Liquidity pockets and near-term price dynamics

The price action around the $76,000 area has been telling. After forming equal highs near that level, BTC faced a rejection at the 100-day exponential moving average, marking the first test of this resistance since mid-January. The immediate result was a pullback toward the mid-$70s, with prices dipping to around $73,500 in the near term.

Looking at the intraday liquidity landscape, buyers’ interest appears to accumulate around $73,000 and $72,000 on shorter timeframes. This could generate bid activity that would help sustain a trend continuation, should the market find fresh thrust from stronger hands.

Another lens on the risk surface comes from liquidation maps. The current heatmap shows roughly $1.4 billion in cumulative long liquidations concentrated near $73,000, and about $3.5 billion worth of long positions at risk near $70,500. On the flip side, an ascent toward $80,000 would expose around $2 billion in leveraged short positions. The spread between these long- and short-side risk zones suggests the market could retest the lower end of the range before attempting a meaningful move higher.

For context, investors should also note related coverage on the broader macro and product side of the Bitcoin market. A separate Cointelegraph report this week highlighted inflows into Bitcoin exchange-traded products as Goldman Sachs reportedly filed for a BTC ETF, signaling continued institutional interest and potential long-term demand drivers for the asset class. Bitcoin ETFs post $412M in inflows as Goldman Sachs files for BTC ETF.

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As observers weigh these flows, the critical question remains: will long-term holders’ accumulating pressure sustain a phase of consolidation, or can the market muster enough demand to push through the next major hurdle around $80,000? The answer may hinge on how new buyers balance the temptation to realize gains against the willingness of whales to absorb supply and push price higher in a market still grappling with macro uncertainty and evolving regulatory signals.

In the near term, traders should keep a close watch on how the price behaves around the $72,000–$73,000 range, where bid interest and on-chain liquidity could set the tone for the next move. Eyes also stay on broader market catalysts, including ETF-related flows and any shifts in risk sentiment that could tilt the balance between profit-taking and accumulation.

Related: Bitcoin ETFs post $412M in inflows as Goldman Sachs files for BTC ETF.

Bitcoin’s current dynamics illustrate a market that’s no longer dominated solely by momentum players. A growing chorus of long-term holders and institutions suggests that even as spot prices wobble around resistance, the supply-demand balance may remain tight enough to underpin a continuation of the bull narrative—albeit with increased volatility and intermittent retracements as traders calibrate risk and realize gains.

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Risk & affiliate notice: Crypto assets are volatile and capital is at risk. This article may contain affiliate links. Read full disclosure

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Trump-Backed World Liberty Proposes 62B Token Vesting Reset

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Brian Armstrong's Bold Prediction: AI Agents Will Soon Dominate Global Financial

TLDR

  • World Liberty has proposed converting 62.3 billion WLFI governance tokens from indefinite lockups into fixed vesting schedules.
  • Insiders who opt into the new terms must burn 4.5 billion WLFI, equal to 10% of their allocation.
  • Founders and team members would face a two-year cliff followed by a three-year linear vesting period.
  • Early supporters would follow a two-year cliff and a two-year linear vest without any token burn.
  • The proposal requires a quorum of 1 billion WLFI and a simple majority within a seven-day vote.

World Liberty Financial (WLFI) has proposed a sweeping change to its token lockup structure while outlining insider burn terms. The Trump-backed decentralized finance project seeks to convert 62,282,252,205 governance tokens into fixed vesting schedules. The plan would impose new cliffs, introduce token burns for insiders, and require holder approval through a formal vote.

World Liberty Sets New Vesting Terms and Insider Burn Condition

World Liberty said it would apply a two-year cliff to all holders who opt into the proposal. Insiders must permanently destroy 4.5 billion WLFI, equal to 10% of their 45,238,585,647 token allocation, upon acceptance. The team stated that holders who decline the new terms will remain locked indefinitely under existing agreements.

Founders, team members, advisors, and partners would face a two-year cliff followed by a three-year linear vest. Tokens would begin unlocking after year two and reach full distribution by year five. The proposal requires a quorum of 1 billion WLFI tokens, a simple majority for passage, and a seven-day voting window.

Early supporters holding 17,043,666,558 WLFI would follow a separate schedule under the plan. They would face a two-year cliff and then a two-year linear vest, with full distribution by year four. The team confirmed that this category would not burn any tokens under the revised structure.

The project stated that it would open a 10-day acceptance window after deploying the new functionality. Participants must affirmatively opt in to activate the revised vesting schedule. Those who do not respond will remain subject to indefinite lockups.

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Governance Proposal Follows Dispute and Ecosystem Updates

World Liberty launched WLFI in September 2025 and currently trades at $0.082. The price marks a 75.1% decline from its all-time high of $0.33, according to market data. The team linked the governance update to broader ecosystem expansion tied to USD1.

USD1 operates as a stablecoin deployed across multiple blockchain networks. The platform also supports lending and borrowing features within the WLFI interface. The team framed the vesting overhaul as part of this broader operational update.

The governance move follows a public dispute with Tron founder Justin Sun. Sun alleged that the WLFI smart contract includes an undisclosed blacklisting function. He said the function gives the team “unilateral power to freeze, restrict, and effectively confiscate the property rights of any token holder.”

Sun described himself as “the first and single largest victim” of the feature. He pointed to his wallet, which the project froze in September 2025 after he moved about $9 million in WLFI. In response, World Liberty accused Sun of “playing the victim while making baseless allegations to cover up his own misconduct,” and the team stated that it would address the matter in court.

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Tax Day Relief Skips Bitcoin Users Buried in Capital Gains Paperwork

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Tax Day Relief Skips Bitcoin Users Buried in Capital Gains Paperwork

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent marked Tax Day by praising the Working Families Tax Cuts, saying tens of millions of Americans now keep more of their paychecks. But for Bitcoin (BTC) users, the tax code tells a very different story.

Cato Institute research fellow Nicholas Anthony published a new analysis arguing that capital gains rules have made it nearly impossible to spend Bitcoin as money in the United States.

Bitcoin Spending Triggers a Paperwork Avalanche

Anthony explained that every purchase made with BTC requires users to record the acquisition date, the spending date, the original cost, and the gain or loss.

All of those details must land on IRS Form 8949 and Schedule D of Form 1040.

The result, he wrote, is staggering. A person who buys a cup of coffee every day with bitcoin could face more than 100 pages of filings by year-end. Form 8949 alone could run to roughly 70 pages for daily transactions.

“Capital gains tax rates are structured to incentivize long-term holding. This policy distorts the market by incentivizing buying and selling solely to mitigate tax losses. However, it’s especially distortionary in the context of money, given that long-term holding policies discourage what is generally considered ‘currency use,’” wrote Nicholas Anthony,

Congress Has Options, Anthony Says

Anthony outlined several potential fixes. The simplest would eliminate capital gains taxes entirely. A narrower approach would exempt cryptocurrency and foreign currency from capital gains treatment.

He also referenced the Virtual Currency Tax Fairness Act, which would create a de minimis exemption for gains under $200, though he argued the threshold should rise to match average household spending of $80,000.

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Meanwhile, payment infrastructure is moving faster than the tax code. Square recently launched no-fee Bitcoin payments at merchant terminals, and self-hosted wallets from Bull Bitcoin, Zeus, and Trezor have simplified consumer spending.

The post Tax Day Relief Skips Bitcoin Users Buried in Capital Gains Paperwork appeared first on BeInCrypto.

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Bitnomial Launches US-Regulated Injective Futures with ETF Implications

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Coinbase, Kraken, Derivatives, Bitcoin Futures, Injective

Chicago-based crypto exchange Bitnomial has launched monthly futures contracts tied to Injective, marking the first US-regulated derivatives product for the Web3 financial ecosystem’s native token.

According to Wednesday’s announcement shared with Cointelegraph, the contracts settle in INJ (INJ) with monthly expiries, allowing traders to gain price exposure without holding the underlying asset, and can be margined in crypto or US dollars through Bitnomial’s clearinghouse.

The listing also starts a six-month track record that could support a spot exchange-traded fund under US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) listing rules. In July, Canary Capital filed for a staked INJ ETF, with Cboe BZX Exchange submitting a corresponding rule change to the SEC.

Institutional clients can access the futures immediately, with retail trading expected to follow via Bitnomial’s Botanical platform in the coming weeks. The company said it also plans to add perpetual futures and options tied to INJ.

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Coinbase, Kraken, Derivatives, Bitcoin Futures, Injective
Source: Injective

Injective runs on a Layer 1 blockchain built for financial applications, with an onchain order book and cross-chain connectivity to networks including Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL).

Bitnomial is a derivatives exchange that operates a trading venue, clearinghouse and brokerage for crypto futures and options that is regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). In January, the exchange launched monthly futures contracts tied to Aptos (APT) marking the first US-regulated derivatives product for the alt coin. 

Related: Injective community passes governance vote to slash INJ token supply

Exchanges push to expand US crypto futures offerings

US-regulated crypto futures remain largely concentrated in major assets like Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH), with Bitnomial among the few venues listing derivatives tied to altcoins. Expanding those offerings has required navigating a shifting and often uncertain regulatory environment.

In August 2024, Bitnomial moved to list XRP (XRP) futures through CFTC self-certification, but the SEC challenged the plan, arguing the contracts could require securities exchange registration. 

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After filing a lawsuit in October 2025, Bitnomial dropped the case in March and later that month launched regulated XRP futures for US users, citing evolving SEC policy.

Other platforms have taken a more gradual approach. Coinbase launched CFTC-regulated futures tied to Bitcoin and Ether for institutional clients in June 2023, later expanding access with retail-sized contracts in May 2025 and introducing 24/7 trading to provide round-the-clock market access for US participants.

Also in May, Kraken acquired futures platform NinjaTrader for about $1.5 billion, gaining a CFTC-registered Futures Commission Merchant and expanding its reach into regulated derivatives markets.

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