Bitcoin may not have formed its cycle bottom yet, according to a new Galaxy Research report that uses market and onchain data to map possible downside zones.

Galaxy Head of Firmwide Research Alex Thorn said Bitcoin’s four-year cycle still appears active, even as the size of each move continues to shrink. The report argues that Bitcoin’s cycle structure has not disappeared, but its highs and lows have become less extreme.

“The 4-year cycle is still real, but it’s compressing,” said Galaxy Head of Firmwide Research Alex Thorn.

The report tracks Bitcoin’s path from prior lows through halvings, cycle tops, and later bottoms. Galaxy said earlier cycles saw peak-to-trough declines of 85%, 84%, and 77%, while the current drawdown has reached about 51% so far.

The current cycle is only about eight months past the October 2025 top. Galaxy said past bear-market lows have usually arrived 12 to 13 months after a cycle peak, placing the historical window closer to late 2026.

Bitcoin calm top changes bottom math

Galaxy said the October 2025 Bitcoin top was the calmest on record by several onchain measures. Only two of 11 classic top signals triggered, and both did so only slightly.

The report said Bitcoin’s MVRV ratio peaked at 2.29 in the current cycle. That compares with prior cycle tops between 2.93 and 5.91, showing less crowd euphoria at the peak.

The Pi Cycle Top signal also did not trigger during the October 2025 high. Galaxy said that was the first time the signal failed to appear during a major Bitcoin cycle top.

The calmer top matters because it placed Bitcoin’s market cost basis closer to the cycle high. Galaxy said the cost basis sat at about 43.7% of the prior all-time high, higher than in earlier cycles.

Galaxy maps Bitcoin bottom ranges

Galaxy’s base-case model places a possible Bitcoin bottom between $40,000 and $46,000. That range assumes the current cycle follows the trend of bottoms rising closer to fair value.

A harsher washout, similar to prior deep bear markets, could place the bottom between $30,000 and $37,000. A shallower outcome could hold between $51,000 and $54,000 if steady demand absorbs the decline.

“Overall, our data analysis suggests a Q4 2026 BTCUSD bottom,” said Thorn.

The report rejects the older rule that Bitcoin must fall 75% to 85% from its cycle high. Galaxy said that approach may now be outdated because it does not account for the calmer top and higher cost basis.

At press time, Bitcoin traded near $63,437 on June 12, according to crypto.news market data. That leaves spot price above Galaxy’s base-case bottom zone, but near the four-year average area that the report tracks as a key long-term support marker.

Bottom signals remain incomplete

Galaxy said only four of 13 bottom indicators have triggered during the current drawdown. The report said the strongest historical signs of a true bottom have not appeared yet.

Those missing signals include Bitcoin trading below its cost basis, holders sitting on broad unrealized losses, sustained loss-taking, and a deeper capitulation flush. Past cycle bottoms showed more of these conditions at once.

Galaxy also noted that Bitcoin had not fallen below its cost basis in this cycle. The current MVRV low has stayed near 1.14, while past bottoms pushed the ratio below 1.0.

The report also warned that the cost basis can move lower during panic selling. If coins change hands at losses, the realized price can fall and pull the estimated bottom range down.

ETF flows and market stress still matter

Galaxy’s study does not include political, regulatory, or geopolitical events in its model. It focuses on price history, timing, valuation, miner stress, trend measures, and sentiment data.

That matters because Bitcoin is also moving through a weak macro backdrop. As previously reported by crypto.news, the June crypto crash came from several pressures, including ETF outflows, U.S.-Iran tensions, a hawkish Fed, and leverage liquidations.

As previously reported, SpaceX IPO demand and broader capital rotation also thinned crypto liquidity before the selloff. That made Bitcoin more sensitive to forced selling when market pressure increased.

Bitcoin recently rebounded near $63.4K as Iran deal hopes cooled risk-off pressure, as reported earlier today. ETF outflows and options positioning still kept the $60K support area in focus.

Set aside the ETF headlines and the courtroom drama, and the price of XRP gets made somewhere specific: on won and yen order books.

On May 13, 2026, XRP did something on South Korean exchanges that no major Western venue has ever shown: it out-traded Bitcoin and Ethereum by combined margins of attention. Upbit, the country’s largest exchange, printed about $110.9 million in 24-hour XRP volume against Bitcoin’s $88.6 million and Ethereum’s $67 million, making the XRP/KRW pair the single busiest market on the platform. Bithumb, the second venue, showed the same pattern, with XRP behind only Tether’s stablecoin pair. The price barely moved, grinding between $1.44 and $1.46 beneath a resistance zone it had failed to break since February.

TLDR:

• Goldman Sachs forecasts hyperscalers will direct about 98% of operating cash flow into CapEx by 2026.
• AI spending is approaching dot-com era levels as firms expand data centers and computing infrastructure.
• Big Tech capital expenditures could reach $920 billion by 2027, with upside estimates near $1.4 trillion.
• Growing concerns remain over whether AI spending can generate returns that justify rising investments.

AI spending is approaching levels last seen during the dot-com era, according to new projections from Goldman Sachs.

The firm expects hyperscalers to allocate nearly all operating cash flow toward capital expenditures by 2026. The forecast has renewed discussions about whether current AI spending can generate returns that match the scale of investment.

Hyperscalers Push AI Spending Toward Historic Highs

Goldman Sachs projects that hyperscalers will allocate about 98% of their cash flow from operations to capital expenditures in 2026. The estimate places current AI spending close to levels seen during the peak of the dot-com boom.

The discussion gained attention after market commentary shared by Global Markets Investor pointed to rising concerns around AI spending.

The post noted that major technology companies could direct almost all internally generated cash toward data centers, computing infrastructure, networking equipment, and AI hardware.

The chart accompanying the analysis tracks capital expenditure as a percentage of cash flow from operations. Historical data shows telecom companies exceeded 120% during the early 2000s infrastructure boom. Meanwhile, the broader technology, media, and telecom sector reached nearly 95% at its peak.

In contrast, hyperscalers maintained much lower spending levels for years. Between 2015 and 2018, the group invested roughly 30% to 40% of operating cash flow.

However, AI spending accelerated sharply after cloud demand expanded and artificial intelligence development intensified.

By 2023, the ratio climbed to around 55%. Goldman Sachs now expects it to reach approximately 68% in 2025 before moving toward 98% in 2026.

The projection suggests that nearly every dollar generated from operations could be redirected into infrastructure growth.

Questions Grow Around Returns on AI Spending

The current investment cycle is largely driven by demand for AI computing capacity. Companies continue expanding data centers while purchasing large volumes of GPUs and networking equipment to support advanced models.

Goldman Sachs expects Big Tech capital expenditures to approach $920 billion by 2027. Under its more aggressive scenario, spending could rise to as much as $1.4 trillion. That figure would represent growth of up to 89% compared with average 2026 projections.

At the same time, some businesses deploying artificial intelligence tools are evaluating whether AI spending is producing sufficient returns. Revenue growth remains a key focus as infrastructure costs continue increasing across the industry.

Competition among model providers has also intensified. Pricing pressure between major AI developers has fueled debate about long-term profitability. Lower prices may support adoption, yet they can also limit revenue growth if usage expansion fails to offset declining costs.

The chart shows hyperscalers moving well above historical averages and approaching the 100% threshold. Such levels indicate that almost all operating cash flow could be committed to future growth projects rather than shareholder distributions or other corporate activities.

Supporters of the investment cycle point to expanding cloud demand and broader AI adoption. Others remain focused on whether AI spending can produce revenue growth capable of supporting the scale of capital commitments now being planned.

With projections extending through 2026 and 2027, AI spending remains one of the most closely watched themes across global financial markets. Investors continue monitoring whether infrastructure demand and commercial adoption advance at a pace that matches rising capital allocation.

Crypto fraudsters are increasingly setting their sights on mass-market sporting events, and the 2026 FIFA World Cup is emerging as a high-value target. TRM Labs says it has identified multiple World Cup-related scam operations that combine fake ticketing with fixed-match betting pitches and crypto-themed promotion tactics designed to move funds from victims quickly.

In a report shared with Cointelegraph, the blockchain intelligence firm warned that scammers often prepare well before kickoff—building infrastructure weeks in advance, then scaling activity as public attention peaks. With large audiences expected to seek tickets, travel, and wagering opportunities, investigators say the risk of fraud is likely to remain elevated throughout the tournament.

Key takeaways

• TRM Labs identified World Cup-related scams including two fake ticketing sites and a fixed-match betting pitch tied to four crypto addresses.
• TRM Labs says scammers typically build operations ahead of major events, then intensify activity when demand surges.
• US authorities previously warned that threat actors were spoofing FIFA websites to collect personal information and sell fake tickets.
• FIFA cautions that tickets sold outside official channels may be invalid and subject to cancellation without notice.
• Complicated ticket availability—especially around resale—may increase opportunities for fraudulent intermediaries.

TRM Labs links crypto scams to World Cup demand

According to TRM Labs, the scammers behind World Cup-themed schemes are leveraging the same dynamics that make major tournaments profitable: concentrated interest, time-sensitive decision-making, and widespread use of online payments. The company said it identified several operations tied to the event, including two fake-ticketing websites and a fixed-match betting pitch associated with four crypto addresses.

Ari Redbord, global head of policy at TRM Labs, told Cointelegraph that criminals do not wait until the first match to strike. He said scammers often prepare infrastructure weeks in advance and then scale once the public is fully focused on the event.

Redbord also highlighted a practical advantage for compliance and investigations. Because crypto transactions are recorded on-chain, investigators and financial compliance teams can potentially intervene earlier than they might in purely traditional payment channels—before losses become harder to contain.

Why the timing and ticketing environment raise the stakes

The 2026 World Cup is being hosted across Canada, Mexico, and the United States. FIFA has said it expects attendance of about 6.5 million fans across the tournament, alongside large economic impact—creating a broad pool of demand that can be exploited by scammers offering tickets, travel, and betting opportunities.

TRM Labs’ warning aligns with broader concerns about online fraud during sporting events. Earlier in the run-up to the tournament, the FBI publicly warned that threat actors were spoofing FIFA websites. In May, the agency said these actors were attempting to collect personal information, sell counterfeit tickets and products, and potentially carry out other malicious activity.

FIFA has also issued direct guidance to fans. In its warnings, FIFA said tickets purchased outside its official website may expose buyers to fraud. It added that tickets obtained through unofficial channels may be treated as invalid and could be cancelled without notice.

Real-world ticket pressure can fuel scams

Even when official channels exist, gaps in availability can create openings for bad actors. The Council on Foreign Relations reported that several opening matches in the US and Canada were not sold out on FIFA’s platform as of Monday. In parallel, the Financial Times reported that official resale portals still showed 176,000 unsold tickets across the group stages.

These conditions matter because fraudulent actors often target moments when legitimate buyers are actively searching for options. When people feel urgency—whether due to partial sell-throughs, unclear resale timing, or uncertainty about seat availability—they are more likely to fall for impersonation sites or “limited inventory” claims.

For investors and market participants who interact with crypto rails, the key point is that these scams are not limited to one category. TRM Labs’ identification of both fake-ticketing operations and fixed-match betting pitches suggests scammers are casting a wide net across the World Cup’s commercial ecosystem rather than relying on a single entry point.

What to watch as the tournament progresses

TRM Labs’ message is that the window for fraud is not confined to kickoff week. With scammers capable of positioning infrastructure ahead of time, enforcement and consumer-protection efforts need to remain active throughout the tournament—not just at the beginning. Fans and anyone supporting compliant payments should monitor for impersonation tactics, verify ticketing channels carefully, and treat event-themed crypto promotions with skepticism.

As more attention flows to resale activity, betting chatter, and viral event content, the most important question for the rest of the tournament will be whether authorities and compliance teams can keep pace with scammers scaling operations in response to public demand.

TLDR:

• Gold is stabilizing near record levels, renewing discussion about capital rotation into Bitcoin markets.
• Historical cycles show Bitcoin rallies often followed periods when gold reached new all-time highs.
• Bitcoin trades near $63,962 as investors assess whether another rotation phase is developing.
• Traders remain focused on macro conditions that could support or challenge the gold-to-Bitcoin trend.

Bitcoin is drawing renewed attention as gold stabilizes near record levels, reviving discussions about a recurring market pattern observed across previous cycles.

Market participants are assessing whether capital that previously flowed into gold could begin moving toward Bitcoin as investors seek higher-return opportunities.

Gold Rally Cools as Bitcoin Traders Watch for Capital Rotation

A recent post from crypto market commentator CryptoTice argued that gold may be approaching a transition phase after completing a major breakout. 

The post suggested that Gold often absorbs investor demand during periods of uncertainty before capital gradually shifts toward Bitcoin once gold reaches new highs and enters consolidation.

The chart accompanying the post compares Bitcoin and gold on a weekly timeframe from 2015 through 2026. It identifies several periods where gold reached record highs before Bitcoin entered strong upward trends. 

According to the chart, similar conditions appeared before Bitcoin’s rally toward $20,000 in 2017 and its move to nearly $69,000 in 2021.

Gold spent much of the period between 2016 and 2020 trading within a broad range before breaking above previous highs near $2,070. After that move, the metal traded sideways for an extended period. The chart marks this phase as a period where profits may have gradually shifted into Bitcoin.

A comparable structure is now being discussed after gold’s latest advance. Gold recently climbed to fresh records and remains near historically elevated levels. Market observers note that the asset has begun showing signs of stabilization following its sharp rise.

Spot gold is currently trading near $4,200 per ounce after retreating from earlier record highs. Traders continue monitoring the $4,000 level as a key area of support while geopolitical developments and U.S. economic data influence sentiment.

Bitcoin Maintains Recovery as Historical Pattern Reappears

Bitcoin’s price action is also being observed as the asset attempts to recover from recent market weakness. According to Coingecko Data, Bitcoin was trading near $63,492 as of this writing, reflecting a gain of roughly 2.5% over the past 24 hours.

Source: Coingecko

The chart identifies three major Bitcoin expansion phases. The first occurred during the 2016–2017 bull market when Bitcoin rose from below $1,000 to nearly $20,000. 

The second followed gold’s 2020 peak and preceded Bitcoin’s climb toward $69,000 during the 2020–2021 cycle.

The current setup represents the third period identified by the analysis. Bitcoin has already recovered substantially from its 2022 bear market lows and has advanced through several major price levels. Supporters of the rotation theory believe another phase of capital movement could be developing.

At the same time, market participants acknowledge that historical relationships do not always repeat. 

Gold and Bitcoin can move higher simultaneously, particularly when investors seek protection from economic uncertainty while also pursuing growth opportunities.

Broader market conditions remain an important factor. Interest rate expectations, liquidity conditions, regulatory developments, and global economic trends may influence whether the historical relationship between the two assets continues.

For now, traders are closely watching whether gold remains in consolidation after its latest records. If previous cycles provide a useful guide, Bitcoin could attract increased attention as investors reassess portfolio allocations. 

However, future price direction will continue to depend on broader market conditions rather than historical patterns alone.

Sam Bankman-Fried has lost his appeal to overturn his 2023 fraud conviction and 25-year prison sentence, leaving the former FTX chief with fewer legal options as a separate pardon request remains pending.

According to a ruling issued Friday by the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit, a three-judge panel unanimously rejected Bankman-Fried’s challenge and upheld the verdict tied to the collapse of the FTX cryptocurrency exchange.

Writing for the panel, Circuit Judge Barrington Parker said the evidence presented by federal prosecutors was “robust” and supported the jury’s findings. The ruling stated that while Bankman-Fried publicly assured customers, investors and regulators that customer assets were secure, he was at the same time using FTX funds for personal expenditures, political donations, investments and real estate purchases.

Federal prosecutors in Manhattan had accused Bankman-Fried of diverting customer money from FTX to Alameda Research, the crypto trading firm he founded, describing the scheme during trial proceedings as a “fraud of epic proportions.” 

A federal jury convicted him in 2023 on seven counts, including fraud and conspiracy, after prosecutors alleged that approximately $8 billion in customer funds had been misappropriated.

Appeals court rejects key defense argument

In challenging the conviction, Bankman-Fried’s legal team argued that U.S. District Judge Lewis Kaplan improperly restricted evidence that could have supported his belief that FTX remained capable of covering customer withdrawals.

The appeals court disagreed, citing established legal precedent that fraud occurs when money or property is obtained through deception, regardless of whether a defendant later intends to repay victims.

Addressing that argument directly, the ruling stated that FTX customers were defrauded once their funds were transferred to Alameda Research, irrespective of any later belief that the money could eventually be returned.

At trial, Bankman-Fried acknowledged management mistakes at FTX but denied stealing customer funds. He had pleaded not guilty to all charges.

The latest setback follows earlier unsuccessful efforts to secure a new trial. Court records show Bankman-Fried previously filed a Rule 33 motion seeking a retrial based on what his lawyers described as new evidence and testimony. He later withdrew that motion without prejudice before Judge Kaplan formally rejected the request in April.

In that decision, Judge Kaplan wrote that the witnesses cited by the defense were not newly discovered and could have been called during the original trial. Federal prosecutors also challenged claims that FTX had remained solvent before its collapse, arguing in court filings that the exchange held only 105 Bitcoin against customer claims approaching 100,000 Bitcoin.

Pardon request remains active

Even as his appeal has now been rejected, Bankman-Fried continues to pursue clemency through a separate channel while he continues to claim that he is innocent.

Records from the U.S. Department of Justice’s Office of the Pardon Attorney show that he has submitted an application for a presidential pardon. The filing seeks what the agency lists as a “pardon after completion of sentence.”

Earlier this year, U.S. President Donald Trump told The New York Times that he had no plans to pardon Bankman-Fried. More recently, a White House spokesperson referred reporters back to those remarks when asked about the application.

Public support for clemency has remained limited. In comments reported by Politico in May, U.S. Senator Cynthia Lummis said she hoped Trump would not pardon the former FTX executive because of the harm caused to customers.

Now 34, Bankman-Fried is serving his sentence at a low-security federal prison near Santa Barbara, California. Federal Bureau of Prisons records indicate he is currently eligible for release in 2044.

His attorneys did not immediately respond to requests for comment on Friday’s ruling. Legal options still available include asking the full Second Circuit to review the case or petitioning the U.S. Supreme Court to hear the appeal.

Bitcoin is drawing fresh interest from buyers after printing a new yearly low near $59,000 last week, with market microstructure data suggesting downside momentum may be fading rather than accelerating. Since that low, BTC has rebounded to around $63,500, while several liquidity and positioning indicators point to a potential push higher if key resistance areas are reclaimed.

Order book and derivatives-related signals highlighted in recent analysis also point to a large concentration of short liquidity above current prices—an often-cited setup for a squeeze—while chart structure increasingly resembles patterns traders associate with breakouts toward the high-$60,000s.

Key takeaways

• BTC’s bid-ask ratio stayed positive after the $59,000 yearly low, suggesting buy-side orders are slightly outpacing sell-side pressure (Hyblock data).
• Analysts cite a short-liquidity cluster near $64,600 as a major upside magnet, with an estimated $2.68 billion in shorts.
• On the four-hour chart, divergence between price action and the RSI supported a rebound from the early-June sell-off lows.
• Traders are watching $64,000 and $66,000 as the most important levels to turn the current recovery into a sustained upside move (X analysis by Ardi and PLTR).
• Weekend flows may add volatility, with weekly profit-taking potentially producing opposing order-flow dynamics after long positioning builds (PLTR).

Order book signals hint at a squeeze setup

Following the yearly low near $59,000, Hyblock’s order book metrics showed BTC maintaining a positive bid-ask ratio of 0.05 after the drop, according to the data referenced in this report. In Hyblock’s framework, the bid-ask ratio is used to reflect whether aggressive buy-side market orders are stronger than aggressive sell-side orders. A positive reading indicates that—at least at the time of measurement—buyers were slightly more forceful than sellers.

Further support comes from cumulative volume delta (CVD) observations cited in the same analysis. CVD is used to estimate net buying or selling pressure over time by tracking volume imbalances. The article notes that smaller order cohorts (up to $10,000 and $100,000) showed improving buying activity, with $53 million and $157 million respectively. More notably for momentum traders, the largest cohort ($100,000 to $10 million) reportedly reduced net selling pressure by $900 million, suggesting that heavy participants were not adding to downside pressure.

At the same time, a crypto analyst identified a dense pool of short liquidity higher up. Kripto Holder pointed to a short-liquidity cluster near $64,600, describing it as the primary upside liquidity pool with $2.68 billion concentrated in that area. The practical implication for traders is that if price moves into that zone, it can increase the likelihood of shorts being forced to cover—potentially accelerating the move upward.

Chart structure: divergence and an ascending triangle

Beyond order book mechanics, the rebound also aligns with a technical signal seen on the four-hour timeframe. The referenced analysis describes a bullish divergence between BTC’s price and the relative strength index (RSI): during the early-June sell-off, price made a lower low, while the RSI formed a higher low. Divergences of this type are commonly interpreted as signs that downside momentum is weakening and selling pressure may be losing strength.

The same report also frames BTC’s current positioning within an ascending triangle pattern. If an upside breakout occurs, the analysis suggests BTC could target a daily fair value gap between $67,500 and $70,500—described as a liquidity gap left behind during the recent market correction. Traders often look to these “imbalance” zones as potential areas where price may mean-revert, especially when order book liquidity and derivatives positioning also favor upward movement.

Key levels to watch: $64,000 and $66,000

As BTC attempts to regain control, two horizontal/structural levels are being emphasized by market analysts. Crypto trader Ardi argued that BTC is still trading within a bear pennant after its decline from approximately $83,000 down toward $59,000. In that framing, $64,000 and $66,000 are presented as the most important prices for the current recovery.

According to Ardi, moving above $64,000 would help clear both a horizontal resistance area and the bear pennant structure. That would, in turn, open additional room for upside. The next hurdle is near $66,000, described as a former major range support level that has since turned into resistance.

If BTC can reclaim $66,000, the analysis claims it would strengthen the case for a move toward the liquidity zone above current price and toward the unfilled fair value gap area between $68,000 and $70,000. In other words, the argument is not just for a short-term bounce, but for a continuation if price can confirm its break through the key resistance levels.

Positioning is building—but weekend dynamics could complicate it

Attention is also on how derivatives positioning is evolving. Market analyst PILTR noted that BTC long exposure has been increasing over roughly the past five days, citing a long-versus-short imbalance of 237 long levels against 128 short levels. Based on that distribution, the report estimates a $4 billion positive imbalance.

Yet, the same analyst flagged weekend positioning as a near-term variable. The observation is that weekly profit-taking can sometimes create opposing flows into weekends, particularly after a sustained build-up of long exposure. For readers and traders, this matters because it highlights an uncertainty: even if the technical and liquidity setup is favorable, the timing of follow-through—especially around weekend trading—may determine whether buyers can sustain gains or whether momentum fades.

Ardi and PLTR’s outlooks share a theme: the path upward depends on BTC not only pushing higher, but also holding above specific thresholds long enough to invalidate the prior bearish structure. Until that happens, the market may remain sensitive to fluctuations in positioning and execution quality reflected in order book and CVD behavior.

Going forward, the most important things to monitor are whether BTC can hold above $64,000 and then reclaim $66,000 without losing momentum—since those levels are repeatedly cited as the triggers for a more durable upside move. Even with bullish microstructure signals, weekend positioning and profit-taking could still swing order-flow dynamics, so traders may want to watch how quickly liquidity reacts as price approaches the short-liquidity pool near $64,600.