QuantPilot aims to simplify crypto market research by combining fragmented on-chain, market, and DeFi data into AI-assisted analysis workflows.

Ask a crypto trader what they lack, and almost nobody says data. They have CoinGecko open in one tab, a Dune dashboard in another, DefiLlama for TVL, a Telegram channel for flow, Glassnode or CryptoQuant for on-chain, and a news feed they mostly skim. The raw material is abundant, and much of it is free.

Say someone wants to answer a fairly ordinary question: over the past two years, did stablecoin balances moving onto exchanges tend to precede rallies in mid-cap DeFi tokens, and did that relationship hold during the drawdowns? Every input needed to answer that exists publicly. Getting to an answer still means pulling exchange stablecoin flows from one API, TVL and token price history from another, aligning timestamps across sources that disagree on what a day is, deciding what counts as a mid-cap, running a correlation, and then checking whether the result survives outside the window you happened to pick.

QuantPilot, the platform 3Commas launched in April 2026 has built its crypto market research layer specifically around it. Whether the approach holds up is worth examining closely, because “AI for crypto research” is a phrase that has covered a lot of nonsense over the past two years.

Agents are not chatbots, and the difference is the whole point

The data layer is the part that determines quality

Scheduled research changes the shape of the work

The line between research and a testable claim

That pipeline runs from an observation, to a hypothesis, to a strategy expressed in plain language, to a backtest with statistical metrics, to an optimization pass that checks whether the result holds across different market conditions, and finally to deployment. QuantPilot compiles strategies into QuantScript and deploys them to supported venues, with Hyperliquid as the first execution integration. Anyone tracking the growth of Hyperliquid and on-chain perpetuals generally will understand why that venue was chosen first.

It is worth separating this from the automated trading bots most traders already know. A DCA or grid bot is a template with parameters, and it executes a strategy someone else designed. The research pipeline is upstream of that. It is concerned with whether the trader’s particular idea has ever worked, not with running a standard pattern efficiently. Both have their place, and confusing them is how people end up running a grid bot into a trend and wondering why it bleeds.

The value of the pipeline is not automation. It is that it makes the honest step, testing the idea before risking money on it, the path of least resistance. Most retail losses come from skipping that step entirely.

US Treasury yields have been rising for months, and the market’s latest move has pushed 30-year rates to their highest level since 2007. While mainstream coverage has largely pinned the sell-off on inflation concerns tied to higher energy prices, analysis of inflation-protected bonds suggests the more important driver is the climb in real yields—an outcome that can be especially challenging for assets that don’t pay investors along the way, including Bitcoin.

The shift is also changing the trade-offs between traditional fixed-income strategies and crypto exposure. According to Glassnode’s latest research, government bond investments have become more profitable than certain cash-and-carry style trades in crypto markets for the first time since 2019.

Key takeaways

• 30-year Treasury yields have surged to the highest levels since 2007 amid a multi-month sell-off in government debt.
• Market pricing for a September rate hike is elevated, with CME FedWatch placing the probability at 63%.
• Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities point to falling five-year inflation expectations (around 2.2% and trending down since May), even as nominal yields rise.
• Data indicates the nominal yield increase is driven more by rising real yields than by higher inflation expectations—typically a headwind for non-yielding assets.
• Multiple potential transmission channels to crypto exist, but the direction is generally bearish if higher real rates reflect weaker growth or tighter liquidity.

Why Treasuries are selling off again

After US government debt yields hit local lows in early March, Treasuries have entered a prolonged period of selling. Following the most recent FOMC meeting, 30-year Treasury yields made headlines by reaching levels not seen since 2007. Within the same window, the two-year yield climbed by 76 basis points, and markets increasingly price another Fed move: a September rate hike is currently weighted at 63% according to CME FedWatch.

The higher the yield environment becomes, the more investors compare alternatives across asset classes. Glassnode’s research—published in its “The Week Onchain” series—notes that, for the first time since 2019, returns from government bond investments have become more attractive than cash-and-carry style trades involving crypto futures.

Inflation fears are loud, but TIPS tell a different story

Many observers have connected the bond sell-off to rising commodity and energy prices. The timing overlaps with the start of the Iran war and the resulting closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and the daily moves in oil and interest rates have tracked each other since March. In that framing, stronger crude prices feed directly into inflation expectations, pushing yields higher.

However, inflation-protected securities complicate that narrative. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) are designed so their principal—and therefore their coupon payments—are adjusted to reflect the Consumer Price Index. Because TIPS exist alongside regular Treasuries of similar maturity, comparing their yields allows investors to estimate the market’s implied inflation path through the breakeven rate.

According to data referenced from FRED, the five-year breakeven inflation rate has dropped sharply since May and is currently around 2.2%. That figure suggests the market expects the Fed to achieve its 2% inflation target over the medium term. More importantly, the breakeven rate has been moving in the opposite direction to nominal Treasury yields: while nominal yields rise, the inflation component implied by TIPS declines.

In the dataset cited, a 33-basis-point increase in the five-year nominal yield is paired with an 84-basis-point rise in the real yield, partially offset by a 51-basis-point decline in expected inflation. In other words, the market’s “real yield” story is changing—and it is the real rate that appears to be doing the heavy lifting.

What higher real yields can mean for Bitcoin and other non-yielding assets

In general, when real returns on traditional investments rise—after adjusting for CPI—investors may prefer assets that offer carry rather than those that do not. Bitcoin is typically treated as a non-yielding asset in this framework, so the direction of travel in real rates can matter.

Still, the impact on crypto depends on why real yields are moving higher. The analysis outlines several mechanisms that can coexist, with different implications for liquidity and demand.

1) FX or reserve liquidation pressures: unclear for crypto

One possible explanation involves global currency and funding dynamics. Higher oil prices can worsen trade balances for energy importers in Asia because oil is priced and settled in US dollars. That can lead to pressure in offshore US-dollar funding markets and force central banks to intervene to defend exchange rates.

The discussion cites Cointelegraph coverage of yen defense and Bloomberg reporting on interventions involving the Philippine peso and Indian rupee. It also notes that these interventions can be funded by selling US Treasury reserves, which can increase upward pressure on yields. In this scenario, the bond sell-off may reflect external funding strain rather than a direct verdict on the dollar or inflation.

As a result, the direct implications for crypto are not automatic: if the driver is more about FX mechanics than about deteriorating growth expectations, crypto’s reaction could be muted or different from the classic “rates up, risk assets down” story.

2) Demand destruction and recession risk: bearish setup

Another pathway is growth damage. If an oil shock persists long enough, the argument goes, it stops being merely inflationary and begins to suppress economic output. Neuberger Berman’s fixed-income outlook—referenced in the analysis—suggests investors may be underpricing how sustained energy costs could hit output.

That matters because a recessionary environment typically tightens liquidity. In such conditions, both equities and Bitcoin can face pressure as credit conditions worsen and risk appetite declines. The analysis also points to the expectation of widening credit spreads as a sign that credit could deteriorate.

It further references Cointelegraph reporting on early signals of stress, connected to rising costs to insure AI-linked debt amid an Asian semiconductor pullback. While that example is specific, it underscores the broader theme: if credit markets begin to price higher risk, non-yielding and speculative assets often struggle.

3) Capital competition from AI issuance: another headwind

A third channel is that higher real rates may be tied to expected growth and capital demand—especially from the AI sector. The analysis argues that as corporate bond issuance, including from major AI-related players, becomes unusually large, government issuance competes more directly for investor capital.

Goldman Sachs Research is cited projecting roughly $755 billion of AI capex in 2026 and about $920 billion in 2027. UBS is also cited as raising its 2026 investment-grade issuance forecast to $1.8 trillion, with technology supply lifted to $360 billion based on hyperscaler guidance. In that environment, investors’ willingness to allocate incremental capital to crypto could be constrained, not necessarily because crypto is “bad,” but because the fundraising pipeline elsewhere is intense.

What to watch next

For crypto investors, the critical question is whether TIPS-implied breakevens stabilize while real yields remain elevated—or whether the market reinterprets the move as a growth scare. Watching the evolution of TIPS breakevens and real-yield dynamics, alongside credit conditions such as spreads, may provide the clearest signal on whether this bond sell-off turns into a sustained liquidity headwind or fades as a temporary funding/energy-driven episode.

XRP ETF inflows surpass $1.5 billion as investors explore alternative digital asset strategies, including cloud mining and DeFi yield platforms.

The XRP-backed ETF has just surpassed a significant milestone in inflows, further boosting institutional investor confidence. Simultaneously, a growing number of investors are turning their attention to ex-DeFi, hoping to explore more long-term yield opportunities beyond simply waiting for XRP prices to rise.

The continued inflows into the XRP ETF further demonstrate the growing demand for XRP from institutional investors. While retail investors remain cautious due to market volatility and price uncertainty, institutional funds continue to allocate XRP through regulated financial products, keeping it one of the most watched mainstream digital assets in the market.

As the regulatory environment and funding conditions continue to improve, many investors are beginning to consider a practical question: are there more efficient and sustainable ways to participate in the long-term returns of XRP besides waiting for prices to rise?

The milestone of XRP ETF inflows surpassing $1.5 billion is significant.

As of the closing on July 29, the XRP spot ETF market has reached a significant milestone. According to data released by the analytics platform uToday, driven by continuous net inflows, XRP-related exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have seen cumulative inflows exceeding $1.5 billion.

Meanwhile, the overall market liquidity has continued to improve. Although secondary market trading activity has slowed somewhat, and retail investor sentiment remains relatively cautious, institutional investor allocation demand has remained stable, resulting in net inflows on most trading days.

A new option for XRP investors: The yield growth path of EX DeFi

In light of this trend, more and more XRP investors are turning their attention to EX DeFi, exploring more stable and sustainable yield models through cloud mining and yield aggregation mechanisms.

Compared to more volatile futures trading or ETF investment, EX DeFi offers a more intuitive and convenient way to participate in digital assets, helping users improve the efficiency of digital asset utilization while participating in the development of the XRP ecosystem. For users with a certain amount of capital, this model is expected to offer higher daily return potential.

About EX DeFi

EX DeFi is headquartered in the UK and operates within European regulatory frameworks such as MiCA and MiFID II, continuously improving its transparency, operational standards, and user protection mechanisms.

The platform employs a multi-layered security architecture, including:

• PwC’s annual financial and security compliance audit;
• Lloyd’s of London digital asset custody insurance;
• Cloudflare enterprise-grade network protection and McAfee® security system;
• Multi-layered encryption architecture, AI-powered intelligent risk control, and 2FA verification protection.

Currently, EX DeFi supports multiple mainstream digital assets such as XRP, BTC, ETH, USDT, USDC, DOGE, LTC, and SOL, providing users with a more flexible and convenient digital asset service experience.

Start earning daily yields easily in just three steps:

1. Register an account

Visit the EX DeFi official website and register using an email address to receive a $17 trial bonus.

2. Choose a Mining Package

Based on a person’s budget and needs, choose a cloud mining contract that suits their needs and start mining with one click.

3. Start Earning Profits

After the contract is activated, the system will automatically allocate computing power, and profits will be automatically settled 24 hours a day. Users can withdraw profits at any time or continue participating as needed, achieving long-term asset compounding.

Example DeFi Popular Contracts

BTC (Beginner Trial Contract): Investment of $100, Term: 2 days, Daily Yield: $4, Total Profit: $100 + $8

DOGE (Golden Shell Mini Dogecoin Pro): Investment of $500, Term: 6 days, Daily Yield: $6.5, Total Profit: $500 + $39

BTC (Canaan-Avalon-A1466): Investment of $1000, Term: 10 days, Daily Yield: $13.4, Total Profit: $1000 + $134

LTC (Bitmain Antminer L7): Investment of $5,000, Term: 20 days, Daily Yield: $73.5, Total Profit: $5,000 + $1,470

BTC (Bitmain S19K-Pro): Investment of $10,000, Term: 30 days, Daily Yield: $161, Total Profit: $10,000 USD + $4,830

For more details on the program, please visit the EX DeFi official website.

Summary

The continued inflow of funds into the XRP ETF, coupled with the improving regulatory environment, further reflects XRP’s gradual integration into the mainstream financial system. EX DeFi provides XRP investors with more diversified participation methods, shifting from “simply relying on price fluctuations” to “price growth and yield generation in parallel.”

As a new market cycle develops, investors are no longer just focused on price increases and decreases, but are paying more attention to stable and sustainable asset management strategies. This trend also reflects the maturing development of digital asset investment.

Still hesitating? Join EX DeFi now and earn daily passive income from digital assets.

A study from the Bank of Italy has challenged a common argument for crypto payments: that stablecoin-based remittances automatically deliver lower costs and faster settlement than traditional money transfer rails. After testing remittances funded and settled with USDC across multiple corridors, the researchers found that most of the expense and delay came from fiat conversion and payment-rail frictions—factors that blockchain networks alone do not control.

The findings are based on experiments moving 200 USDC across 10 bidirectional corridors connecting Italy with Brazil, Argentina, Japan, the United Arab Emirates, and South Africa. The study compared the end-to-end cost and settlement time to traditional remittance services, concluding that crypto network fees made up only a small portion of overall costs.

Key takeaways

• Fiat on- and off-ramp frictions dominated remittance costs: exchange fees and currency conversion accounted for most expenses, while blockchain transaction fees were comparatively minor.
• Speed depended on local payment rails: transfers settled in under 20 minutes where instant payment systems were available, but took one to two business days when they weren’t.
• Cost advantages were corridor-specific: total costs across stablecoin remittances ranged from 0.3% to nearly 9%, with savings versus some benchmarks not universal.
• Regulatory design influenced user behavior and efficiency: overly restrictive rules increased operational complexity, while prohibitionist approaches pushed users toward offshore and unregulated options.

Stablecoins don’t eliminate the biggest frictions

The Bank of Italy’s experiment was designed to isolate where the money-transfer pipeline spends time and money. Researchers reported that, across the stablecoin remittances tested, exchange fees and currency conversion were the primary cost drivers. By contrast, blockchain transaction fees were only a small share of total costs—meaning the core bottlenecks for cross-border transfers largely sit outside the chain.

In practical terms, the corridor matters because stablecoin remittances often still require converting value into local currency at the sending and receiving ends. Even when the transfer occurs on-chain, users may face fees and processing delays at the interfaces where fiat enters or leaves the system.

Costs and settlement times vary by corridor

According to the study, total costs for the stablecoin remittances ranged from 0.3% to nearly 9%, depending on the corridor. This wide spread underscores that stablecoin-based transfers are not a single “set it and forget it” alternative to traditional remittances; rather, they are shaped by the quality and pricing of the surrounding payment infrastructure.

Settlement times showed an even clearer relationship with local payment systems. The researchers found transfers were typically completed in less than 20 minutes when instant payment networks were available. Where those systems were not in place, settlement stretched to one to two business days.

To frame the results against a broader global benchmark, the study used the World Bank’s reported global average remittance cost of 6.65%. On that basis, stablecoin transfers were cheaper in most corridors examined. However, they were less expensive than Wise in only three of seven corridors where direct comparisons were possible—suggesting that established digital remittance providers can still outperform stablecoin routes in certain environments.

Why infrastructure investment matters more than token choice

The Bank of Italy argues that improving the competitiveness of stablecoin-based cross-border payments depends heavily on payment-rail upgrades—particularly domestic instant payment infrastructure. In other words, the study’s central implication is that stablecoin settlement can be fast only if the start and end points of the transfer process are equally efficient.

The authors also emphasized an important structural point: the potential benefits expand if stablecoins can be used in the real economy without repeated reconversion into local fiat. They wrote that:

If stablecoins could be spent directly in the real economy, for goods and services, rents, or school fees, without reconversion into local fiat currency, the economic advantages of stablecoin-based transfers would be substantially higher.

This framing highlights a key asymmetry in many cross-border use cases today. Even if blockchain rails reduce settlement friction, remittance economics can remain constrained when end users ultimately need local currency access and the process requires multiple conversions.

Regulation can either enable or complicate real-world use

The study also found that regulatory design plays a decisive role in shaping remittance efficiency. According to the authors, prohibitionist regimes have not fully eliminated stablecoin demand; instead, they can push users toward offshore platforms and other unregulated channels. Conversely, overly restrictive frameworks may increase operational complexity for retail users.

The analysis arrives as policy frameworks for crypto assets and stablecoins are taking shape in major jurisdictions. The European Union has implemented the Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) framework, while the United States has enacted the GENIUS Act, which governs crypto assets and payment stablecoins, respectively.

In terms of broader market momentum, the stablecoin market has grown to about $307 billion, up roughly 16% over the past year, according to DefiLlama data on stablecoins.

That growth provides context for why regulators and payment operators are increasingly focused on remittance and tokenized payments. But the Bank of Italy’s results suggest that the route to efficiency is not purely about allowing stablecoin settlement—it’s also about aligning regulatory expectations with workable payment flows and infrastructure.

What readers should watch next

The study implies that the next meaningful improvements in stablecoin remittances will likely come from upgrades to instant payment rails and from reducing the need for repeated fiat conversion at either end of the transfer. Investors and builders should monitor how policy changes under MiCA in Europe and the GENIUS framework in the US translate into compliant on- and off-ramp experiences—because, according to the Bank of Italy, that’s where most of the cost and delay still lives.

Robinhood stock recovered more than 2% on Thursday after Bernstein maintained its $160 target, betting that tokenization and prediction markets can offset weaker crypto trading.

Robinhood stock rebounds from $83.68

Robinhood Markets shares traded at $88.55 on Friday, up approximately 2.25% after moving between $83.68 and $89.48 during the session. Despite the rebound, HOOD remained about 26% below its July high near $120.

HOOD had closed Wednesday at $89.84 before coming under renewed selling pressure. Thursday’s recovery kept the stock above its 200-day simple moving average at approximately $86.52, a level that could determine whether the recent decline develops into a deeper correction.

Bernstein maintained its Outperform rating and $160 price target following Robinhood’s second-quarter results. From Thursday’s closing price, the target represents potential upside of about 81%.

Goldman Sachs also retained a Buy rating but reduced its 12-month target from $137 to $118. The revised target still implies more than 33% upside, though it reflects a more cautious outlook for near-term growth.

Robinhood reported second-quarter net revenue of $1.31 billion, up 32% from $989 million a year earlier. The result exceeded analysts’ consensus estimate of approximately $1.26 billion.

Prediction markets overtake crypto revenue

Bernstein’s bullish case rests partly on Robinhood’s expansion beyond conventional stock and cryptocurrency trading. The brokerage identified prediction markets, tokenized stocks and blockchain infrastructure as longer-term revenue drivers.

Robinhood’s Rothera exchange went live in June and has processed more than 3.5 billion contracts. Around 2.1 billion contracts changed hands during the second quarter, generating $17 million in revenue.

Total event-contract revenue reached $156 million during the quarter, exceeding the $100 million generated by crypto trading. Bernstein described Rothera as the third-largest U.S. exchange in its category.

The figures show that prediction markets are becoming a larger part of Robinhood’s business as weaker digital-asset activity weighs on transaction revenue. Bernstein cut its estimate for Robinhood’s 2026 crypto trading revenue by 49% to reflect lower market volumes.

Commenting on how Rothera could develop, Bernstein analysts said:

“Management expects a greater share of prediction market flow to migrate to Rothera over time, while continuing to distribute event contracts from third-party exchanges and retaining the longer-term optionality to offer Rothera as a B2B platform for other FCMs.”

That strategy would allow Robinhood to earn revenue from its own exchange while continuing to distribute contracts supplied by outside venues. A future business-to-business offering could also provide access to other futures commission merchants, though that remains a longer-term option rather than a confirmed source of revenue.

Tokenization becomes a second growth pillar

Bernstein also pointed to Robinhood Chain, Bitstamp, Robinhood Earn and tokenized stocks as evidence that the company is developing infrastructure beyond its retail brokerage.

Robinhood Chain has recorded more than $12 billion in decentralized exchange volume and processed over 150 million transactions since its launch. Robinhood Earn has attracted more than $200 million in deposits.

Stock Tokens are available through Robinhood Wallet in more than 120 countries, extending the company’s tokenization business outside the United States. The service gives eligible international users blockchain-based exposure to listed securities, while U.S. investors continue to access conventional shares through Robinhood’s regulated brokerage platform.

Robinhood has also opened its Agentic Trading platform to its full customer base. The system lets customers connect artificial intelligence agents through Robinhood’s Model Context Protocol server and assign specific investing tasks.

These products widen Robinhood’s addressable market, but they also introduce execution and regulatory risks. Tokenized securities can face different ownership, disclosure, and investor-protection rules across jurisdictions, while prediction markets remain under scrutiny from U.S. federal and state authorities.

HOOD must reclaim $96 to strengthen recovery

Robinhood’s daily chart remains technically weak despite Thursday’s rebound. HOOD is trading below its 20-day moving average at $103.79, its 50-day average at $96.67, and its 100-day average at $99.30.

The cluster between $96.67 and $103.79 creates a broad resistance area. A close above the 50-day average would be the first sign that buyers are regaining control, while a move above $103.79 could reopen a path toward the July range between $110 and $120.

Bear-bull power stood at minus 20.01, showing that sellers still hold the near-term advantage. Negative bars have also expanded during the latest retreat, suggesting that Thursday’s bounce has not yet reversed the broader loss of momentum.

On the downside, the 200-day moving average near $86.52 provides immediate support. HOOD briefly traded below that level before recovering, making the $83.68 intraday low the next level to watch if selling resumes.

A sustained break below $83.68 could expose the June consolidation area around $75 to $80. Conversely, holding above the 200-day average and reclaiming $96.67 would improve the technical outlook.

Bernstein’s $160 target depends on Robinhood converting newer products into durable revenue as crypto trading slows. For U.S. investors, the next test will be whether prediction markets and tokenization can continue expanding without tighter regulation limiting their contribution.

Ken Griffin’s Citadel reportedly bought a large proportion of the public stock portfolio of Situational Awareness, the hedge fund founded by former OpenAI researcher Leopold Aschenbrenner.

The Financial Times first reported Thursday that Citadel bought the portfolio holdings after heavy losses during July’s artificial intelligence stock market rout. 

The transaction followed Aschenbrenner’s fund falling about 67% in July, according to The Wall Street Journal, citing a person who saw a letter sent to investors. The letter said the fund remained up about 80% for the year. The Financial Times previously reported the fund was up 439% through June.

Those reports suggested Situational had approached existing investors and lenders for fresh capital and offered some investors the option to buy portfolio assets. The Journal also reported Situational needed cash to meet margin calls from its lenders and that the fund agreed late Wednesday to sell $3.5 billion of Anthropic shares to a group led by Greenoaks and Sequoia Capital before withdrawing from the deal Thursday morning.

Reuters separately reported the leveraged portfolio detail but said it could not determine whether formal margin calls had been issued before the sale. Reuters said Situational retained roughly $10 billion in stocks and private investments, including Anthropic. Situational had grown to about $24 billion in assets in under two years before the reversal, according to the FT’s follow-up profile.

AI holdings suffered steep July falls

Several stocks linked to the fund suffered sharp declines in July. Sandisk remained down about 44% for the month even after closing Thursday up 26%. CoreWeave fell nearly 26% in July, while Bloom Energy was down around 32%, Yahoo Finance data shows.

Related: Former OpenAI researcher foresees AGI reality in 2027

Situational’s US Securities and Exchange Commission filing showed direct share positions in all three companies as of March 31.

The same filing showed about $1.11 billion in shares of seven Bitcoin (BTC) mining companies, including Iren, Core Scientific, Riot Platforms and CleanSpark. Cointelegraph previously reported that the positions gave Situational exposure to miners expanding into AI and high-performance computing by repurposing their power supplies and data center sites.

It remains unclear what stocks were part of the transaction between Citadel and Situational or whether the fund retained any of its Bitcoin miner positions.

Related: Bitcoin miner Core Scientific shifts to AI with 1.5GW data center push

Aschenbrenner’s fund takes its name from his 2024 essay series, “Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead,” which argued that artificial general intelligence could arrive by 2027 and drive enormous demand for computing power and electricity.

Before joining OpenAI, Aschenbrenner was a member of the FTX Future Fund’s five-person team and signed its November 2022 resignation notice as FTX collapsed.

Cointelegraph contacted Situational Awareness and Citadel for comment but had not received a response by publication.

Magazine: The 100x obsession: Fundamentals grow in importance as crypto matures

Japan’s central bank held interest rates steady at 1.0% on Friday after a reported major intervention in the yen.

Key points:

• Japan holds interest rates at 1.0%, following market expectations.
• Both Japan and South Korea’s central banks reportedly engage in currency interventions, as the JPY briefly gains 3.5% overnight.
• Bank of Japan warns of incoming CPI inflation headwinds in the second half of the year.

Yen rises up to 3.5% as Korea joins intervention

In its latest statement, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) revealed broad consensus among officials for holding rates at current levels — an outcome that markets had anticipated in advance.

“The Bank will encourage the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 1.0 percent,” it confirmed.

Eight out of nine members of the bank’s Policy Board voted for the outcome, with only Hajime Takata proposing a 0.25% rate hike.

Japan benchmark interest rate (screenshot). Source: BoJ

Japan’s benchmark rate remains at its highest levels since 1995, with the BoJ meeting result coming just hours after the yen saw snap volatility. Against the US dollar, the currency rose by as much as 3.5% on Thursday, per data from TradingView, in a move that has widely been attributed to central bank intervention

JPY/USD one-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The BoJ did not officially comment on the latest moves, which coincided with a significant rebound in the South Korean stock market after days of heavy selling concentrated on semiconductor stocks. The Korean won was up by around 1% at the time of writing amid reports of a joint intervention between the BoJ and Korea’s central bank. Analysts referenced “tightly aligned” mutual interests of the two countries as facilitating the joint move.

“The interests of each country aligned. For Korea-Japan cooperation, the won and the yen are so tightly coupled that a joint intervention could double the impact,” Lee Min-hyuk, an analyst at KB Kookmin Bank, commented to local media outlet Straits Times.

The Nikkei newspaper earlier noted that the US had engaged in rate checks — a form of soft intervention which can precede a more pronounced operation — during Thursday’s trading session, resulting in speculation over a three-way coordinated move.

“The key signal from last night’s move is that MOF remains uncomfortable with excessive yen weakness. The line in the sand is probably better viewed as a zone around 162-165 rather than a specific level,” Masahiko Loo, senior fixed income strategist at asset manager State Street Investment Management, told CNBC.

BoJ sees CPI inflation headwinds increasing in 2026

As the yen came off its highest levels against the dollar since 1986, the BoJ warned of future upside in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation.

Related: Rate path still divides investors: Five things to know in Bitcoin this week

“The year-on-year rate of increase in the consumer price index […] is likely to accelerate to a level clearly above 2 percent from the second half of fiscal 2026,” it stated in its latest quarterly Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices report.

In addition to rising prices of durable goods, the report referenced “waning of the effects of high crude oil prices” due to the ongoing US-Iran war and closure of the Strait of Hormuz oil-transit route.

Gyrations in the yen have remained an important consideration in crypto trading circles ever since the “unwinding” of the yen carry trade sparked major Bitcoin and altcoin downside pressure in August 2024.

Earlier this year, Arthur Hayes, former CEO of crypto exchange BitMEX, suggested that the combination of a weak yen and rising Japanese bond yields may cause investors to move away from low-yielding US bond allocations. He linked central bank liquidity interventions to positive moves in crypto markets.

“This discussion of Japanese financial markets is important because for Bitcoin to exit its sideways funk, it needs a healthy dose of money printing,” he wrote in a blog post.

In December 2025, Hayes predicted that USD/JPY could rise as high as 200.

CLARITY Act passage odds have fallen to 25% as the White House reviews a bipartisan ethics proposal that could determine whether the Senate takes up the crypto market structure bill before its August recess.

Scaramucci expects Trump to approve ethics deal

SkyBridge Capital founder Anthony Scaramucci said he expects Trump to accept the revised ethics language negotiated by Republican Sen. Thom Tillis and Democratic Sen. Ruben Gallego.

“If POTUS ultimately signs off, which I think he will, who will stand in the way of Clarity?” Scaramucci wrote on X. “If Dems (or GOPs in the pocket of bank lobby) stand in the way, they will regret it in November.”

Scaramucci’s statement represents his assessment of the negotiations. Neither Trump nor the White House has publicly confirmed acceptance of the proposal.

Tillis and Gallego reportedly sent the counterproposal to the White House on Thursday. The text has not been released publicly, but crypto journalist Eleanor Terrett reported that it would give state attorneys general a role in enforcing restrictions on federal officials’ digital-asset activities. Terrett’s report said the full scope of those state powers remained unclear.

Scaramucci also claimed in a now-deleted post that Trump’s children supported the compromise. That assertion has not been independently confirmed.

Ethics dispute remains central to CLARITY Act talks

Senate Democrats objected to an earlier Republican-backed ethics proposal because it reportedly placed enforcement authority solely with federal prosecutors.

The disputed language would restrict the president, vice president and other federal officials from issuing or sponsoring digital assets while in office. Democrats have sought stronger enforcement mechanisms and broader protections addressing conflicts of interest linked to officials’ crypto businesses.

Giving state attorneys general enforcement authority could help attract Democratic votes. It could also address concerns raised by Tillis, who had withheld support without changes to the ethics section.

However, an agreement on ethics would not guarantee passage. Senators remain divided over other provisions involving stablecoin rewards, protections for blockchain developers, and the division of regulatory authority between the Securities and Exchange Commission and Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

The House passed its version of the CLARITY Act by a 294–134 vote in July 2025, with 78 Democrats supporting it. Any amended Senate version would still need approval from both chambers before reaching Trump’s desk.

CLARITY Act odds fall to record-low 25%

Polymarket traders now assign a 25% probability that Trump will sign the CLARITY Act into law before the end of 2026, down from 30% earlier this week. The decline reflects uncertainty over both the remaining negotiations and the limited Senate calendar.

Prediction-market probabilities represent traders’ positions rather than a formal legislative forecast. The odds can change quickly if the White House accepts the ethics compromise or Senate Majority Leader John Thune schedules floor proceedings.

Industry groups are also pressing lawmakers to act. Digital Currency Group, the parent company of Grayscale, sent a letter to Thune and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer requesting a vote before the recess. The company argued that continued regulatory uncertainty was driving US crypto investment and jobs overseas.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent issued a similar call this week, saying the Senate needed to vote on the legislation “now.”

Senate timetable remains uncertain

Sen. Cynthia Lummis said Thune has reserved space for the CLARITY Act on the Senate agenda and still intends to begin considering it before lawmakers leave Washington.

“Senator Thune has kept a place for the Clarity Act on the agenda before the August recess for many, many weeks now,” Lummis said. “I believe he does intend to go through with it.”

Still, no floor schedule has been confirmed. Nominations, government funding negotiations and votes concerning Iran and Russia-Ukraine sanctions are competing for the Senate’s remaining time. Lummis’ comments indicate that proceedings could begin within days, but they do not guarantee a final passage vote before the recess. Crypto.news previously reported that amendments and procedural votes could push final action into the post-recess calendar.

For US crypto companies and investors, the outcome will determine whether Congress advances a federal division of SEC and CFTC oversight this summer or leaves the regulatory framework unresolved heading into the November elections.