Crypto World
Brad Garlinghouse endorses claim that Wall Street is copying XRP
Brad Garlinghouse has endorsed claims that Wall Street firms are increasingly pursuing the same institutional finance strategy that XRP was once criticized for supporting.
Summary
- Brad Garlinghouse backed Hugo Philion’s claim that Wall Street and crypto firms are increasingly adopting XRP’s institutional finance vision.
- Philion said Ripple’s payments strategy has remained consistent despite years of regulatory challenges and industry criticism.
- The comments come as the XRP Ledger prepares its v3.2.0 upgrade and Ripple supports Mastercard’s new AI payments network.
According to comments shared on X, Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse responded with a one-word endorsement after Flare co-founder Hugo Philion argued that many parts of the crypto industry are now embracing the bank-focused approach that XRP and Ripple promoted from the beginning.
The exchange began after an X user highlighted remarks Philion made during a recent interview discussing Ripple’s long-standing role in digital payments. The user wrote that parts of the crypto sector had mocked XRP’s institutional vision in the past but were now attempting to replicate it. Garlinghouse replied simply, “True.”
Philion’s comments centered on how perceptions of Ripple have changed over time. During the interview, he said XRP and Ripple were once criticized for working closely with banks and financial institutions. According to Philion, many projects across the crypto market are now seeking similar relationships with traditional finance firms.
Ripple’s institutional strategy gains fresh attention
Speaking in the interview, Philion said he had always been interested in XRP and viewed Ripple’s payments strategy as being largely on the right track. He argued that regulatory challenges have created more obstacles for the company than issues related to its business model.
While discussing the criticism Ripple faced in its early years, Philion said XRP was often labeled a “banker coin.” He contrasted that view with the current market environment, where many crypto companies are actively pursuing partnerships with banks, payment providers, and financial institutions.
Philion also stated that Ripple has remained consistent with its original objective of improving payments infrastructure. According to his comments, the company has continued building around that use case while maintaining one of the most active communities in the digital asset industry.
Recent developments involving Ripple have added context to the discussion. As previously reported by crypto.news, Mastercard recently launched an AI-powered payments network called Agent Pay for Machines with support from more than 30 companies, including Ripple, Coinbase, the Solana Foundation, Stripe, Adyen, Cloudflare, and OKX.
According to Mastercard, the platform is designed to allow autonomous software agents to carry out transactions, settlements, and machine-to-machine payments. Ripple said fast settlement infrastructure remains an important component for such systems, reinforcing the company’s long-standing focus on payment efficiency.
XRP Ledger prepares next software release
Alongside the renewed debate over Ripple’s role in financial infrastructure, development work on the XRP Ledger continues ahead of a scheduled software update.
According to the XRP Ledger Foundation, version 3.2.0 is expected to be released on June 15 following last month’s rollout of version 3.1.3. The previous release included updates affecting NFTs, Multi-Purpose Tokens, Vaults, the Lending Protocol, and Permissioned Domains.
One of the most notable changes in the upcoming release is a rebranding of the network’s core server software. According to the XRP Ledger Foundation, the software currently known as “rippled” will be renamed “xrpld.”
The foundation said the change is intended to better represent the expanding open-source ecosystem surrounding the XRP Ledger.
The past months have not been kind to Ripple’s cross-border token, whose price is down roughly 65% on a yearly scale.
One analyst warned that it may soon fall well below the $1 psychological mark, while many others remain optimistic that a major rebound is coming next.
Going Further Down?
As of press time, XRP trades at around $1.08, which translates into a 4% weekly loss. According to X user Hamza, the asset’s recent decline has resulted in a breakdown from a critical symmetrical triangle that could lead to an additional pullback.
The analyst claimed that retail is still “bagholding on hope” while smart money had left and set a target of $0.836. At the same time, they said a potential rise to $1.16 would invalidate the bearish setup.
FOUR | Crypto Spaces also issued a pessimistic forecast, envisioning a plunge to $1.02, while Carl Hawley opined that XRP has shown “extreme weakness” on higher timeframes, making the asset the most oversold since COVID times. Usually, entering such a territory is a precursor to a resurgence, yet the analyst couldn’t predict the exact direction of the upcoming move, saying:
“Capitulation or opportunity? The next few weeks could be decisive.”
The rising number of XRP tokens stored on Binance suggests the bearish perspective is more likely. The figure has reached a nearly three-week high of approximately 2.62 billion coins, signaling that some investors have abandoned self-custody methods and moved their holdings to the exchange. This, in turn, increases the immediate selling pressure.
The Bullish Scenarios
It is important to note that the majority of people making XRP predictions remain optimistic. X user MARMOT recently claimed that the asset is repeating the exact pattern from 2017, which led to a 60,000% explosion. They believe the path to the next bull run involves three different phases, envisioning an eventual ascent to a new all-time high of $13.
Celal Kucuker also chipped in, seeing compression, exhausted sellers, and asymmetric risk. In their view, if XRP breaks above its current structure, those who called for $0.50 may suddenly start calling for $10.
The most bullish forecast came from xrpl_Adam, who suggested that Ripple’s native token may become a $100 trillion asset in the future. As of now, it’s hard to imagine an explosion of that magnitude, given that the entire market capitalization of the crypto sector is around $2.3 trillion.
The post XRP Warning: Why Ripple’s Price Could Plunge 23% appeared first on CryptoPotato.
Coinbase reports Q2 earnings after the close on July 30, with Wall Street expecting a soft quarter. Consensus revenue sits near $1.31 billion, down roughly 13% year over year. The EPS consensus has slipped to about $0.15, while HC Wainwright projects $0.05. The bigger question is whether management can justify Coinbase’s valuation through stronger guidance and growing revenue beyond spot trading.
Estimate cuts have been broad. Barclays expects Q2 trading volume near $152 billion, below the Street consensus of roughly $178 billion. The bank also sees adjusted EBITDA about 3% below consensus and revenue near the lower end of guidance. Softer crypto prices and slower USDC growth remain the biggest headwinds.
Clear Street forecasts roughly $160 billion in trading volume and adjusted EBITDA near $301 million. JPMorgan also cut its price target from $283 to $196 on July 17. The bank cited weaker trading activity and uncertainty surrounding Coinbase’s USDC revenue-sharing arrangement with Hyperliquid.
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Diversification Becomes the Bull Case
Citi lowered its price target from $400 to $235 while maintaining a Buy rating. Even so, the average analyst target remains near $223. That suggests most of Wall Street still expects meaningful upside once trading conditions improve despite lower earnings expectations.
William Blair remains constructive despite reducing forecasts. Analysts Andrew Jeffrey and Adib Choudhury cut 2026 revenue estimates by 12% and 2027 estimates by 13%. They also lowered adjusted EBITDA forecasts by 34% while maintaining an Outperform rating. The firm expects earnings to bottom during the second half of 2026 before recovering through 2027.
The firm argues Coinbase’s long-term story is becoming structural rather than cyclical. Spot Bitcoin ETFs continue attracting institutional capital, while Base, retail derivatives, and prediction markets are expanding the company’s revenue mix. Coinbase also strengthened its derivatives business through the Deribit acquisition, although the deal contributed little to Q2 because it closed late in the quarter.
Subscription and services revenue remains another bright spot. The segment includes USDC interest income, staking, custody, and Coinbase One subscriptions. Analysts expect around $601 million, within management’s guidance range of $565 million to $645 million. That recurring revenue provides a cushion when trading volumes weaken.
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Regulation and Guidance Hold the Coinbase Key
The Clarity Act remains one of the biggest long-term catalysts. The proposal would divide crypto oversight between the SEC and CFTC. Benchmark believes recent Senate progress improves its chances, while Compass Point warns delays could pressure Coinbase’s valuation if investors have already priced in regulatory progress.
Bitcoin and Ethereum both traded at earlier highs during much of Q2, reducing retail participation and exchange volumes. Piper Sandler also highlighted prediction markets and perpetual futures after strong World Cup activity. However, Coinbase shares economics with Kalshi, limiting the business’s direct earnings contribution.
Ultimately, investors already expect a weak quarter. Management’s outlook for trading demand, stablecoin revenue, and regulatory developments will likely matter more than the headline results. If Coinbase shows its diversified businesses can offset weaker spot trading, the market may look beyond another soft earnings report.
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The post Coinbase Q2 Earnings Preview: Guidance and Diversification in Focus appeared first on Cryptonews.
Crypto World
Institutional crypto trading hits a record 72% as Wall Street calms crypto’s wild swings
That concentration could make future altcoin rallies more selective.
“The result is a market where the flow that increasingly sets direction is concentrated in fewer names, traded more selectively,” the report said. It added that broad-based rallies, where most alternative cryptocurrencies rise together, are becoming less likely as institutional capital focuses on a handful of assets.
Derivatives and tokenization gain traction
The report also points to growing use of derivatives as another defining trend. Wintermute said notional trading volume in altcoin options on its OTC desk increased about 3.4 times from the second half of 2025 to the first half of 2026, driven largely by investors seeking yield rather than outright price exposure. At the same time, contracts for difference, or CFDs, are being used across a wider range of cryptocurrencies for directional trading, hedging and basket strategies.
Beyond trading, tokenized real-world assets continued to gain momentum, with the value of tokenized assets climbing nearly 50% to $31 billion during the first six months of the year, while average monthly transfer volume more than doubled to $9 billion. The firm said institutions are primarily adopting tokenized Treasuries, money market funds and private credit, while retail investors remain more active in tokenized equities.
While Wintermute expects retail participation to return during the next crypto bull market, it argues institutional influence is unlikely to fade. Instead, it said the market is increasingly taking on the characteristics of its largest participants, with professional investors shaping liquidity, pricing and the types of assets that attract capital.
The Magnum Ice Cream Company (MICC) posted first-half core earnings above analyst expectations on July 30. Cost cuts since its 2025 spinoff from Unilever (UL) drove the beat, alongside a heatwave-driven summer surge for Ben & Jerry’s.
Revenue reached €4.7 billion, up from €4.5 billion a year earlier, with organic sales growth of 4.7% across every region. Adjusted EBIT climbed 7.5% to €716 million, though separation costs pulled net profit down to €349 million.
Ben & Jerry’s Powers a Hot Start to Summer
Ben & Jerry’s led the gains across the portfolio. Growth accelerated sharply once summer heat set in across Europe. New stick and sandwich formats pulled fresh buyers into the brand, both in the Americas and in Europe.
“Ben & Jerry’s grew mid-single-digit and had an outstanding second quarter with 9.2% growth.”
Peter ter Kulve, the company’s CEO, praised a frontline-first operating model in a statement tied to the results. Sustained heat across Europe has already lifted other heatwave-driven cooling stocks this summer, and that trend now extends to frozen treats.
Magnum, Cornetto, and the Heartbrand also posted gains. All four core brands showed positive momentum, and Yasso, the company’s high-protein pint line, kept growing at a double-digit pace. The pattern echoes the seasonal plays behind several US stocks to watch this July.
Magnum’s Cost Cuts and Productivity Gains Lift Margins
A productivity programme launched in 2024 delivered €90 million in first-half savings, most of it from the supply chain. Waste reduction and better factory use both contributed. Meanwhile, a favorable working capital swing tied to the Unilever separation nearly doubled Free Cash Flow to €273 million.
Standalone financing pushed net finance costs up to €72 million, compared with just €10 million a year earlier. That shift lines up with the broader high-rate backdrop highlighted by the Fed’s July decision to hold rates steady, a move that rattled bond markets and pushed long-term borrowing costs to multi-year highs.
The earnings beat nonetheless continues a summer pattern of firms topping Wall Street estimates. It follows Robinhood’s earnings beat and Intel’s surprise profit beat earlier this season, both delivered despite mixed investor reactions.
Shares of Magnum Ice Cream (EURONEXT: MICC) were changing hands near €16.16 ahead of the print, up roughly 19% for the year and close to the all-time high of €16.74 hit on July 7. The stock has climbed steadily since bottoming near €11 in late April, and the chart shows that run largely intact heading into results day.
Management reaffirmed full-year guidance of 3% to 5% organic sales growth. The company now enters peak summer demand with momentum intact. A pending antitrust review of its freezer-cabinet practices in Türkiye adds a regulatory wrinkle to watch.
The next quarter should still show whether the heat and the cost discipline both hold.
The post Heatwave Boosts Ice Cream Sales as Magnum Beats Earnings Forecasts appeared first on BeInCrypto.
[Update 08:55 UTC, July 30: Updates with additional reporting and context.]
Online brokerage Robinhood posted record second-quarter revenue and earnings, though cryptocurrency transaction revenue fell 38% from a year earlier.
The company said Wednesday in its earnings report that crypto transaction revenue fell to $100 million from about $160 million a year earlier. Overall revenue rose 32% year-over-year to $1.31 billion, while net income increased 48% to $573 million. Transaction-based revenue climbed 44% to $776 million.
Robinhood reported $40 billion in crypto notional trading volume during the quarter. Of that total, $18 billion came from the Robinhood app, down 35% from a year earlier, while $22 billion came from Bitstamp, the crypto exchange it acquired in June 2025.
The price of Robinhood shares was down 3.15% on Wednesday ahead of the company’s earnings release, according to Yahoo Finance data.
Robinhood expands crypto ecosystem
Despite the decline in crypto trading revenue, Robinhood continued expanding its digital asset business during the quarter, completing its acquisition of Canadian crypto platform WonderFi as it broadened its crypto offerings beyond trading.
After the quarter ended, the company unveiled the public mainnet of Robinhood Chain, introduced tokenized US stocks to eligible users in more than 120 countries and debuted its first decentralized lending product, Robinhood Earn.
Related: Bernstein raises Robinhood price target, cites tokenization and prediction markets
Data from DefiLlama shows Robinhood’s new Ethereum layer-2 network had $348 million in total value locked on Thursday, more than $500 million in stablecoins and over $1 billion in bridged assets.
Platform growth offsets crypto slowdown
Cryptocurrency was the only major transaction category to decline during the quarter.
Robinhood said growth in event contracts, options and equities more than offset the weakness, with event contract revenue surging more than tenfold to $156 million, options revenue rising 29% to $342 million and equities revenue jumping 95% to $129 million.
The company also reported record net deposits of $21.7 billion during the quarter, while total platform assets increased 32% year over year to $369 billion and funded customers grew 7% to 28.4 million.
Robinhood lowered and narrowed its 2026 outlook for adjusted operating expenses and share-based compensation to between $2.675 billion and $2.775 billion, from $2.7 billion to $2.825 billion previously. Adjusted EBITDA rose 35% to $741 million, while total operating expenses increased 33% to $734 million.
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The US government has not paid this much to borrow money since 2007. The 30-year Treasury yield closed at 5.20% on Wednesday, hours after the Federal Reserve left interest rates alone.
Three Fed officials wanted a rate hike instead. Bond traders sided with them.
Why the 30-Year Treasury Yield Jumped
A bond yield is what lenders charge to hold government debt. When it rises, borrowing gets pricier for everyone.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) kept its rate range at 3.50% to 3.75%. The vote was 9 to 3.
Beth Hammack, Neel Kashkari and Lorie Logan each wanted a quarter point increase, the Fed statement shows.
Long-term bonds fell hardest. The 30-year yield rose from 5.09% to 5.20%, and the 10-year climbed to 4.67%.
Short-term bonds went the other way. The two-year yield slipped to 4.22%.
That split is the signal. Traders are worried about the next 30 years, not the next 30 days. Some intraday quotes ran as high as 5.244%.
Three dissents sound dramatic. They are not that rare, and four officials broke ranks in April. The direction is what stands out. Three votes for higher rates at one meeting last happened in September 2016.
The Fed has not raised rates since July 2023. The three dissenting officials want that streak to end.
Chair Kevin Warsh took the job on May 22. He refused to call the decision a pause and defended the 2% inflation target at his press conference.
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This Looks Like 2007, But It Is Not
The last time the 30-year yield sat here, the Fed was about to cut rates. In July 2007, the yield was 5.28%. The Fed’s own rate was 5.25%. The two were basically level.
Two months later the Fed cut by half a point. Warsh, then a Fed governor, voted for it. Today the picture is flipped. The 30-year yield sits roughly 1.45 percentage points above the Fed’s rate.
In 2007, long rates were falling toward a rescue. Now they are climbing away from one. Someone pays for that. The interest bill on US debt hit $857 billion in nine months, up 13% from a year earlier.
“Outlays for net interest on the public debt rose by $98 billion (or 13 percent) because the debt was larger than it was in the first nine months of fiscal year 2025 and because of higher long-term interest rates,” the Congressional Budget Office reported.
Interest now costs more than Medicare, at $778 billion. It also beats military spending, at $677 billion.
Total US debt reached about $39.8 trillion in late July.
Oil is not helping either. West Texas Intermediate crude settled 6.6% higher at $84.46 a barrel on Wednesday.
US Central Command said Iran fired ballistic missiles at American forces on July 28. All were intercepted. The US-Iran ceasefire collapse keeps oil risk alive.
Where Bitcoin and Gold Fit In
Crypto did not follow bonds down. Bitcoin (BTC) traded near $64,730 on Thursday, up 0.48% on the day.
Bitcoin’s recent price action shows a 9.2% gain over 30 days, though it is down 45% over a year.
Gold traded near $4,078 an ounce on Thursday. It had settled at $4,036.30 the day before.
Ellen Zentner, chief economic strategist at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, says traders only delayed the hike.
“September remains a live meeting, and the incoming inflation data between now and then will be all that matters,” Zentner said.
Thursday’s inflation data helped the doves. The Fed’s preferred gauge, personal consumption expenditures (PCE), rose 3.7% in the year to June, down from 4.1% in May.
Core PCE, which strips out food and fuel, came in at 3.3%.
Even so, inflation has topped 2% every month since March 2021. Global bond yields climbed to their highest since 2008 earlier this year, and the long end never came back down.
The Fed meets again on September 15 and 16. That is when the three dissenters find out if they were right.
The post 30-Year Treasury Yield Hits 2007 High as Bond Market Doubts the Fed appeared first on BeInCrypto.
Russian authorities charged BitRiver founder Igor Runets with alleged fraud tied to a $8 million crypto mining equipment deal involving Russian billionaire Oleg Deripaska.
Malaysian police have dismantled an illegal Bitcoin mining operation and arrested two men after seizing 73 mining machines that investigators say were powered through stolen electricity.
Summary
- Malaysian police arrested two men and seized 73 Bitcoin mining machines during raids on three properties in Tronoh.
- Investigators said the mining operation used stolen electricity through illegal power connections confirmed by TNB inspections.
- The latest crackdown follows earlier Bitcoin mining raids in Terengganu and Kuala Lumpur linked to electricity theft across Malaysia.
According to a statement from Batu Gajah district police chief Assistant Commissioner Md Noor Aehawan Mohammad, officers carried out coordinated raids at three properties in Tronoh on Tuesday night under Op Elektrik, uncovering what investigators described as illegal Bitcoin mining activities supported by unauthorized electricity connections.
The operation began at about 9:02 p.m. and involved personnel from the district Criminal Investigation Department together with the Technical Unit of Malaysia’s national electricity provider, Tenaga Nasional Berhad (TNB), also known as the SEAL Team.
Police detained two local men, aged 40 and 52, to assist with the investigation. Alongside the arrests, officers confiscated 73 Bitcoin mining machines and additional equipment believed to have been used to operate the mining network.
Bitcoin mining operation used illegal power connections
Police said inspections carried out during the operation found that each of the three premises had been used for Bitcoin mining. Technical examinations conducted by TNB later confirmed electricity theft at two abandoned houses, while the third property involved in the case was an unoccupied house.
Md Noor Aehawan said investigators found evidence that the mining equipment had been connected through illegal electricity supply lines rather than legitimate metered connections.
Both suspects have been remanded for three days, beginning Wednesday and ending Friday, to facilitate further investigations.
Authorities are investigating the case under Section 427 of Malaysia’s Penal Code for committing mischief, including electricity theft, as well as Section 37(1) of the Electricity Supply Act 1990, which covers interference with electrical installations.
Police also urged residents to report suspicious activities linked to electricity theft or unauthorized cryptocurrency mining. Members of the public with relevant information have been asked to contact the Batu Gajah district police operations room or the nearest police station.
Malaysia has continued targeting illegal Bitcoin mining
The latest enforcement action follows several similar crackdowns carried out across Malaysia over the past year as authorities continue to target cryptocurrency mining operations that bypass electricity meters.
In May, Terengganu police dismantled another suspected Bitcoin mining syndicate during Op Letrik after raiding properties in the Hulu Terengganu and Marang districts. Working alongside TNB’s SEAL unit, officers seized 45 illegal Bitcoin mining machines from two premises, including a residential property in Bukit Perpat and a commercial building in Wakaf Tapai.
At the time, Terengganu police chief Datuk Mohd Khairi Khairuddin said investigators believed the premises had been modified to bypass electricity meters, causing estimated monthly losses of about RM36,000 for TNB. Authorities also seized mining-related equipment valued at approximately RM225,000, although no arrests were announced in that operation.
The Terengganu investigation proceeded under Sections 379 and 427 of the Penal Code together with Section 37 of the Electricity Supply Act 1990.
Earlier cases have exposed electricity theft
Another illegal mining operation came to light in February after firefighters responded to reports of an explosion and smoke at a house in Kuala Lumpur.
Authorities later discovered modified electrical wiring that had caused a fire before uncovering several Bitcoin mining rigs inside the property. Investigators also confirmed that the operation had been drawing electricity through unauthorized connections, prompting a separate investigation.
Malaysia’s national electricity provider has repeatedly warned about the financial impact of electricity theft linked to cryptocurrency mining. TNB reported in 2024 that illegal Bitcoin mining had caused losses of more than 440 million Malaysian ringgit, or roughly $101 million, due to stolen electricity.
The utility also estimated that electricity theft associated with illegal cryptocurrency mining resulted in losses of about $755 million between 2018 and 2023, highlighting the continued challenge posed by unauthorized mining operations across the country.
Outside Malaysia, governments have taken similar action against illicit cryptocurrency mining where unauthorized electricity use has strained national power systems. Iran has conducted repeated crackdowns on illegal mining operations, while Venezuela introduced a ban on crypto mining to protect its electricity grid from excessive energy demand.
Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.
Fhenix and Canopy integrate confidential computation to simplify private onchain app development.
Summary
- Fhenix and Canopy integrate confidential computation, enabling developers to build privacy-preserving onchain apps with encrypted data.
- The two projects have launched a confidential app template, bringing fully homomorphic encryption to sovereign blockchain applications.
- Fhenix brings encrypted computation to the Canopy Stack, simplifying confidential onchain app development with familiar tooling.
Fhenix and Canopy are integrating confidential computation into the Canopy Stack, giving developers a direct way to build sovereign onchain apps that keep user data encrypted while it is being used. The integration removes the need for teams to assemble a separate cryptography stack or hire specialist cryptographers before they can ship private application logic.
The new Canopy Confidential App template is powered by Fhenix’s CoFHE coprocessor for fully homomorphic encryption (FHE). Developers will be able to add encrypted computation through a familiar TypeScript library, making confidentiality part of the app from the start rather than a feature added later. The approach extends Canopy’s existing platform model: the stack handles the underlying infrastructure so builders can focus on the application.
Public-by-default infrastructure works for many onchain use cases, but it breaks down when applications handle commercially sensitive, personal, or strategic data. Some teams respond by moving to closed networks. Fhenix and Canopy are taking a different approach: keep the network open while keeping the data encrypted.
Confidential operations are added through Canopy’s plugin and runtime layer without changing its base consensus. A user’s input is encrypted in the Canopy wallet and submitted as a standard transaction. CoFHE processes the encrypted data offchain, and when a result must be disclosed, a trust-minimized process returns a signed value for Canopy to verify before state is settled. Builders access the flow through familiar tooling, without managing a separate privacy stack or encryption keys.
The core Canopy components are already live, including plugin lifecycle hooks, the state bridge, plugin scaffolding, and the wallet runtime. CoFHE is currently deployed across Ethereum, Arbitrum, and Base. Work on the remaining encrypted-transaction components is in progress.
What it enables
In an onchain game, a player’s hand, units, and map knowledge can remain encrypted. Players submit moves privately and learn only the outcome of each encounter, such as who won, how much damage was dealt, or which territory changed hands.
The same model applies to business workflows. A buyer can open an RFP, receive encrypted bids from multiple suppliers, and publish only the winner and winning price at the deadline. The losing bids do not need to be revealed to the other participants.
The Fhenix integration is in development and is scheduled to roll out in Q4 2026. Canopy is currently live on public testnet, with 16.8k forks and more than 100,000 daily active wallets.
Disclosure: This content is provided by a third party. Neither crypto.news nor the author of this article endorses any product mentioned on this page. Users should conduct their own research before taking any action related to the company.
Bitcoin’s market cycles could be more closely linked to the US political calendar than many investors think, according to a new analysis shared by Alphractal founder Joao Wedson.
In a July 30 post on X, he showed that the flagship cryptocurrency has repeatedly entered bear markets before US midterm elections, only to recover after voters head to the polls.
Recurring Election Cycle Patterns
Wedson compared Bitcoin’s price history against US election cycles and found what he described as a recurring sequence. According to his chart, BTC enters a bear market about one year before every US midterm election before starting a longer bull market right after the vote. In some cycles, the market bottom formed just days before the election, while in others it came shortly afterward.
He also noted that presidential elections have produced a different effect, with Bitcoin rallying strongly every time a president won an election before approaching a major cycle top not long after the president was inaugurated.
“Data reveals patterns that narratives often miss,” wrote the analyst.
According to Wedson, XRP offers an even more striking example, starting a steep rally on the day Donald Trump won the 2024 election and reaching a local peak on January 20, 2025, the day Trump was inaugurated.
His observations are quite similar to those made in a Binance Research report from earlier in the year, which found that BTC has historically struggled during US midterm election years before posting gains once the political uncertainty faded.
Per the report, Bitcoin dropped by an average of about 56% during completed midterm cycles since 2014, before returning an average gain of roughly 54% in the year after the elections.
Wedson had earlier contended that while many market participants believed Bitcoin has already established a bottom, “a price recovery alone does not confirm a structural shift.” He said there must be clear signs of capitulation and deleveraging, as well as short-term investors bringing in new capital before such a conclusion can be reached.
Macro Conditions Could Shape Whether History Repeats
There’s still about three months left before Americans go to the polls, and BTC is currently hovering around the $64,000 level, which is nearly 50% below its October 2025 all-time high of over $126,000, with data from CoinGecko showing it dipped about 2.5% in seven days.
However, it’s still up nearly 8% across the last month, after weathering the latest Federal Reserve decision to leave interest rates unchanged at 3.50% to 3.75%.
The post Bitcoin’s Next Bull Run Could Follow US Midterms: Analyst appeared first on CryptoPotato.
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