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Cardano price tests historic support hinting at reversal

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Cardano price tests historic 2022 support as oversold conditions hint at reversal - 1

Cardano price has returned to a major historical support zone near $0.28 as RSI plunges into extreme oversold territory.

Summary

  • $0.28 aligns with 2022 and 2023 historical support
  • RSI in extreme oversold conditions
  • Holding support opens bounce toward range midpoint

Cardano (ADA) is once again testing a long-term demand zone that previously acted as a structural bottom during the 2022 bear market. The same region later served as a foundation for the 2023 cycle low, reinforcing its significance as a high timeframe support area.

Cardano price key technical points

  • Major Support: $0.28 aligns with the historical 2022 and 2023 demand zone.
  • Oversold Signal: RSI in extreme oversold territory.
  • Range Structure: Price remains within a broader high timeframe trading range.
Cardano price tests historic 2022 support as oversold conditions hint at reversal - 1
ADAUSDT (1W) Chart, Source: TradingView

Cardano’s current price action reflects heightened selling pressure, but it is unfolding at a technically important location. The $0.28 region represents both the value area low and the broader range low within the current high timeframe structure. Historically, this level provided a strong base during the 2022 downturn and later marked the 2023 cycle bottom, establishing it as a critical liquidity zone.

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Momentum indicators further strengthen the case for a potential reversal. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has entered extreme oversold territory, signaling that selling pressure may be approaching exhaustion. While oversold conditions alone do not guarantee an immediate rebound, they often precede periods of relief rallies, particularly when aligned with significant structural support.

From a market structure perspective, Cardano continues to trade within a larger consolidation range rather than a confirmed breakdown trend. As long as price remains above the $0.28 range support, the probability favors continuation within this established structure.

Markets frequently rotate between range extremes before deciding on longer-term direction, and the current setup mirrors previous historical rotations, even as Cardano price remains under pressure despite the Midnight Foundation unveiling major blue-chip companies as node operators.

If support holds and RSI begins to recover through a bullish crossover, the first upside target would likely be the range midpoint, followed by the upper boundary of the trading range. Previous cycles have demonstrated that once oversold momentum unwinds, Cardano can produce sharp relief rallies toward equilibrium zones.

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However, traders should remain cautious. A confirmed breakdown below the historical support would invalidate the bullish reversal thesis and expose deeper downside levels. For now, the technical evidence leans toward a potential bounce scenario, given the confluence of oversold momentum and long-standing demand.

Volume dynamics will be critical in determining the strength of any recovery. A rise in buying participation near $0.28 would confirm accumulation behavior, while continued weak demand could delay reversal attempts.

Overall, Cardano finds itself at a decisive inflection point. The combination of historical support and extreme oversold readings creates conditions favorable for a relief rally, but confirmation depends on whether buyers can defend the range low.

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What to expect in the coming price action

As long as Cardano holds above the $0.28 range support, the probability favors a short-term rebound toward the range midpoint and potentially the range high. A breakdown below this level would shift structure bearish and increase downside risk, but current oversold conditions suggest a bounce remains likely in the near term.

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How Bitcoin’s Shift to Digital Gold Was Fueled by Institutions

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How Bitcoin’s Shift to Digital Gold Was Fueled by Institutions

Bitcoin, and eventually broader crypto, was steered away from being a decentralized alternative to the state and toward integration into the very financial system it was meant to replace.

In an interview, Aaron Day, co-founder of Daylight Freedom, a foundation dedicated to financial sovereignty and individual liberty, reached this conclusion based on his personal experiences with Bitcoin. 

Questioning Bitcoin’s Original Mission

Nowadays, Bitcoin is best known for its non-sovereign, censorship-resistant characteristics. For several years now, the crypto community has touted the asset as akin to gold, albeit digital. 

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Day, an outspoken critic of cryptocurrencies and a libertarian thinker, once thought this too. 

That’s why he started using Bitcoin as early as 2012. However, he soon started to realize that its narrative was in a constant state of transformation– one that parted ways with its self-proclaimed decentralized nature.

His persistent remarks on social media and sharp criticisms of some of the industry’s most powerful companies have inevitably made some paint him as a conspiracy theorist. 

However, his long trajectory as a crypto user in the space, paired with the research he conducts as a fellow at the Brownstone Institute, provides a perspective that’s hard to dismiss, especially amid Bitcoin’s broader mainstream adoption.

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New Hampshire as a Bitcoin Testing Ground

When Day, a New Hampshire resident, started using Bitcoin 15 years ago, many restaurants and shops accepted it directly. It already functioned as a spendable digital currency. 

In many ways, the state was a breeding ground for this type of activity. 

Known as the “Live Free or Die” region, New Hampshire also became the home of the Free State Project, a nonprofit political migration movement founded in 2001 that successfully relocated roughly 20,000 free thinkers to the area, aiming to concentrate them in a low-population state.

Day was the Chairman of that project, and by virtue of his beliefs, he became attracted to Bitcoin’s potential.

“Back [in 2012], mostly conferences were about how Bitcoin was going to be used as an alternative to central banks, how it was going to be something that solved the problem of the 2008 financial crisis, [and] how it was going to be a tool that didn’t require intermediaries or third parties. This is how I got introduced to it,” Day told BeInCrypto during a podcast episode. 

However, despite its early adoption in his city, the narrative began to shift by 2017. According to him, it soon became unusable. 

“All of a sudden, the fees went through the roof. We went from transactions being finalized in seconds to days. It lost its fundamental utility, which is to be something that anyone anywhere in the world could engage in voluntary transactions without third parties,” he added.

Though that was Day’s original frustration with the currency, it soon only represented the tip of the iceberg.

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A Narrative Shift From Cash to Store of Value

When Day started using Bitcoin, it was seen as just another form of currency for everyday transactions with decentralized advantages. It was never perceived as anything else. 

“People weren’t talking about primarily as being digital gold. It’s something you just hold and save and don’t spend. It’s not in the title of the whitepaper, this is not the behavior and function of Bitcoin,” he explained.

These changes coincided with the rise of Layer 2 solutions in crypto. These secondary protocols, built on top of the primary blockchain, are designed to significantly increase transaction speeds and reduce fees. Protocols like Segregated Witness (SegWit) and Lightning Network became particularly popular at the time. 

While many developers argued these upgrades were necessary technical trade-offs, Day interpreted them differently. 

In his view, the technical debate around scaling was inseparable from a broader structural shift happening behind the scenes — one related to who was funding Bitcoin’s development.

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From Non-Profit Backing to Institutional Influence

In 2012, the Bitcoin Foundation, a non-profit organization, was established in the United States to promote Bitcoin use and protect the integrity of the project. It also supported Bitcoin’s earliest core developers. 

Three years later, however, the organization collapsed amid internal turmoil and financial difficulties. 

Shortly afterward, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Media Lab, through its Digital Currency Initiative —directed by Jeffrey Epstein-linked Joi Ito— began funding several Bitcoin core developers.

Current staff at the MIT Media Lab Digital Currency Initiative. Source: MIT.

To many in the ecosystem, this was a practical solution. Bitcoin was an open-source protocol without a formal corporate sponsor. Developers needed funding to continue their work.

But for Day, the timing raised questions.

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“MIT took over, and then some of the same developers that were working on things like SegWit and Lightning Network, essentially hobbling Bitcoin as peer-to-peer cash and moving to this Bitcoin is digital gold narrative.”

As Bitcoin’s scalability issues became more apparent and the network’s future development was increasingly steered by well-funded institutional interests, the project’s decentralized nature began to erode.

Fast forward to today, and Bitcoin has become extensively integrated in infrastructure directly tied to traditional, centralized banking. Exchange-traded funds tied to the asset, institutional custody, and nation-state reserves have since entered the conversation. 

Day questioned whether this trajectory was inevitable or the result of structural forces that redirected Bitcoin’s original mission. 

“I think at the end of this, the longer it goes on, the more it’s pretty clear that all of crypto has been hijacked,” he concluded. 

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Is a 75% Crash Next?

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SHIB Burn Rate


Further decline or a revival: what’s next for the self-proclaimed Dogecoin killer?

The situation for the second-largest meme coin has worsened recently, following a double-digit slide over the past 14 days.

Some worrying factors suggest Shiba Inu (SHIB) could experience a further collapse in the near future, while one popular analyst predicted it might crash to a five-year low.

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The Free Fall is Yet to Happen?

While Shiba Inu enjoyed some notable surges last year, 2026 has been nothing but painful. As of this writing, it trades at around $0.000005467 (per CoinGecko’s data), representing a whopping 60% plunge on a yearly scale.

Its market cap has tumbled to roughly $3.2 billion, further widening the gap with niche frontrunner Dogecoin (DOGE), which maintains a capitalization of more than $15 billion.

According to Ali Martinez, SHIB might be on the verge of a crash to as low as $0.00000138. This is not the first time the analyst has warned about such a scenario. Last month, he noted that the meme coin dropped below the important level of $0.00000667, claiming this could have opened the door to a meltdown to the aforementioned zone.

Shiba Inu’s burning mechanism also signals that a further pullback may be on the way. Over the past 24 hours, the burn rate has decreased by approximately 99% after only 20,176 SHIB were sent to a null address.

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SHIB Burn RateSHIB Burn Rate
SHIB Burn Rate, Source: shibburn.com

The program’s ultimate goal is to reduce the meme coin’s overall supply, potentially making it more valuable in time (assuming demand remains constant or heads north). It was adopted in 2022, and since then, the team and community have destroyed more than 410.7 trillion tokens, leaving 585.47 trillion in circulation.

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SHIB SupplySHIB Supply
SHIB Supply, Source: shibburn.com

The stalled progress of Shibarium is also a bearish factor. Shiba Inu’s layer-2 scaling solution saw the light of day in the summer of 2023 and aims to foster the project’s development by lowering transaction fees, improving speed, and enhancing scalability. It suffered an exploit in September last year, which shook investor trust and caused widespread damage across the Shiba Inu ecosystem. Prior to the incident, daily transactions processed on Shibarium were in the millions, while after that, they plummeted to mere thousands.

Shibarium TransactionsShibarium Transactions
Shibarium Transactions, Source: shibariumscan.io

The Bullish Signals

Even as the meme coin struggles and the broader crypto market is under pressure, SHIB’s supply on centralized exchanges keeps shrinking. According to CryptoQuant’s data, those reserves fell below 81 trillion tokens, the lowest point since May 2021.

SHIB Exchange Reserves
SHIB Exchange Reserves, Source: CryptoQuant

The development could be interpreted as a positive sign because it suggests that investors are in no rush to move their holdings to such platforms: a move often seen as a pre-sale step.

Meanwhile, Shiba Inu’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) briefly plunged below 30, indicating the asset has entered oversold territory and could be due for a resurgence. The technical analysis tool runs from 0 to 100, and conversely, ratios above 70 suggest SHIB could be overbought and gearing up for a possible correction. As of this writing, the RSI stands at roughly 36, or much closer to the bullish zone.

SHIB RSISHIB RSI
SHIB RSI, Source: CryptoWaves
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Seized Crypto Lapses Push South Korea to Enforce Tighter National Controls

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Nexo Partners with Bakkt for US Crypto Exchange and Yield Programs

TLDR

  • South Korea launched a nationwide audit to strengthen controls over seized crypto assets.
  • The Finance Ministry and financial regulators reviewed storage methods and internal access procedures.
  • Officials aimed to identify weak practices and introduce stronger technical safeguards.
  • Police in Gangnam lost 22 BTC after giving custody to an external firm without private key control.
  • The National Tax Service apologized after exposing recovery phrases that led to a major theft.

South Korea moved fast to reinforce digital asset controls as officials addressed recent security failures, and the government ordered urgent checks across agencies, and leaders demanded strict oversight to prevent further losses.

Audit of Seized Crypto Holdings

South Korea launched a nationwide audit after new directives reshaped digital asset management practices. Authorities examined seized coins across agencies and reviewed storage controls. The Finance Ministry coordinated the process with the Financial Services Commission and the Financial Supervisory Service. Officials targeted holdings gained through tax and criminal cases.

Officials reviewed hardware wallets and custodial accounts and assessed access controls. They said the audit aimed to expose weak procedures and guide new protections. Leaders stated that agencies must “fix system gaps fast” to stop unauthorized transfers. They also confirmed that operational reports will go directly to senior oversight teams.

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Police losses in Gangnam triggered stronger demands for new custody rules. Investigators confirmed that officers lost 22 BTC after handing assets to an outside firm. Officials said the officers never controlled private keys, which raised concerns about current arrangements. Regulators asked agencies to track crypto flows better.

A separate error at the National Tax Service pushed the government to act. The agency disclosed recovery phrases in a public release. Thieves drained most of a $5.6 million holding, and leaders called the failure preventable. The agency apologized and began internal checks.

Legal and Structural Shifts in South Korea

The Supreme Court of Korea ruled in January that exchange-held Bitcoin qualifies as property. This decision cleared earlier confusion over enforcement powers. Officials said the ruling eased asset seizure procedures. They added that agencies can pursue digital holdings more quickly under clear rules.

The government continued updating its Digital Asset Basic Act. Phase two will impose rules for stablecoin reserves and investor protection.  Officials said the updates will strengthen oversight for market players. They also confirmed that agencies will publish final provisions soon.

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Regulators ended a nine-year block on corporate crypto trading in February. They allowed listed firms and professional traders to reenter markets. Authorities said new compliance rules will govern trading activities. They will also monitor corporate flows under updated reporting systems.

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Bitcoin Holds $66,000 as Market Braces for March Rebound

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Crypto Breaking News

Key Takeaways

  • Tom Lee sees March rebound for crypto and US stocks
  • Bitcoin trades at $66K despite Middle East tension
  • Ethereum holds near $1,950 as BitMine keeps buying
  • Oil jumps 13% while US futures slip lower
  • Lee links gold strength to broader market shift

Bitcoin trades at $66,000 after rebounding from weekend lows near $63,000. The asset has gained over 5% from its recent dip. Tom Lee expects a broader market recovery in March despite geopolitical pressure.

He shared his outlook during a recent CNBC interview. Lee stated that March could mark a turnaround month for risk assets. He added that economic growth remains intact despite current fears.

Tensions in the Middle East triggered sharp weekend volatility. Military strikes targeting Iran’s Supreme Leader sparked retaliatory action. Consequently, markets reacted with swift liquidations and price swings.

Data shows that long liquidations reached nearly $300 million. However, the broader market absorbed the shock without extended panic. Therefore, Bitcoin stabilized quickly above key support levels.

Meanwhile, oil prices jumped 13% to $82 per barrel. This level marks the highest price since July 2024. Rising energy costs added pressure to global equity markets.

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US equity index futures declined following the developments. The S&P 500 futures fell 1%, while Nasdaq 100 futures dropped 1.5%. Even so, Lee believes the worst selling could occur this week.

Risk & affiliate notice: Crypto assets are volatile and capital is at risk. This article may contain affiliate links. Read full disclosure

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Why is the crypto market going up today? (March 2)

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Top gainers in the crypto market

The crypto market is going up today, March 2, even as the geopolitical crisis in the Middle East escalated.

Summary

  • The crypto market remained stable on Monday even as the war in Iran started.
  • This rally happened as the economic impact of the crisis remained limited.
  • The crypto recovery could be a dead-cat bounce, a situation where a falling asset rebounds temporarily.

Bitcoin (BTC) rose to nearly $70,000, while Ethereum (ETH) jumped to $2,065. Other top gainers were coins like Near Protocol, Morpho, Virtuals Protocol, Jupiter, and Pudgy Penguins. The market capitalization of all coins jumped to over $2.38 trillion.

Top gainers in the crypto market
Top gainers in the crypto market | Source: CoinMarketCap

The crypto market rose as the economic impact of the ongoing war in the Middle East remained muted. For example, the Dow Jones Index retreated by just 140 points, while the Nasdaq 100 erased earlier losses and turned positive for the day.

Crude oil price gains were also lower than expected, with Brent settling at $78 and the West Texas Intermediate rising to $73. The two benchmarks were expected to rise to over $100 as the war started.

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A likely reason for the crypto market rally is the inverse of buying the rumors and selling the news. In this case, investors dumped Bitcoin and other coins ahead of the war, and are now buying the news.

At the same time, the crypto market is going up as traders predict that the United States, Iran, and Israel will reach a ceasefire in the near term. Odds of a ceasefire happening by March 31st rose to 46%. Similarly, the odds of it happening by April 30 rose to 66%.

The crypto market is going up after the relatively strong US macro data. According to S&P Global, the manufacturing PMI rose from 50.4 in January to 51 in February. Another report by ISM showed that the manufacturing PMI rose from 51.7 to 52.4 in the same period.

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Meanwhile, Michael Saylor’s Strategy and Tom Lee’s BitMine continued accumulating Bitcoin and Ethereum last week. BitMine accumulated over 50k ETH, while Strategy bought over 3,000 Bitcoin. These purchases have continued even as these companies have experienced billions in losses. 

Still, there is also a likelihood that the ongoing crypto market rally is a dead-cat bounce. A DCB is a situation where a falling asset rebounds briefly and then resumes the downtrend.

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Are Investors Giving Up on BTC?

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Are Investors Giving Up on BTC?

Key takeaways:

  • Bitcoin futures demand has hit its lowest level since 2024, signaling that many institutional traders are staying cautious.

  • Despite lower confidence from bulls, high CME open interest suggests that major institutions have not left the market.

Bitcoin (BTC) price has gained 10% since retesting $63,000 on Saturday, providing a glimpse of hope for bulls as stock markets moved in a different direction amid escalating tensions in the Middle East. However, demand for Bitcoin futures has been declining, with open interest reaching its lowest levels since 2024. This trend is causing traders to fear that institutional investors are leaving the market.

BTC futures aggregate open interest, USD. Source: CoinGlass

The Bitcoin futures aggregate open interest on major exchanges declined to $32 billion on Sunday, down 20% from one month prior. Even if measured in Bitcoin terms to adjust for the recent price decline, the current demand for BTC futures stood at the lowest level since August 2024 at 491,300 BTC. Part of this decline can be explained by the forced liquidations of bulls who were caught by surprise.

The demand for leveraged bullish positions has been largely absent since the $126,200 all-time high in October 2025.

BTC two-month futures annualized premium. Source: Laevitas.ch

The annualized premium (basis rate) on Bitcoin monthly futures contracts dropped to its lowest level in a year at 2%. Under neutral conditions, the metric should range from 5% to 10% to compensate for the longer settlement period. Even more concerning is the fact that the basis rate has failed to sustain bullish levels for the past 12 months, a period that happens to include a 50% rally April to May 2025.

Bitcoin’s underperformance relative to gold and the stock market has likely shifted investors’ attention away from the cryptocurrency market. Still, it would be far-fetched to claim that institutional investors have exited the market, given that spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) trade over $3 billion per day on average. Among the ETF holders are some of the world’s largest mutual and pension fund managers.

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Moreover, there are over $79 billion in Bitcoin held onchain by publicly listed companies, including Strategy (MSTR US), MARA Holdings (MARA US), XXI (XXI US) and Metaplanet (MPLTF US). Countries such as Bhutan, El Salvador and the United Arab Emirates have also added Bitcoin exposure. One could argue that there is still a long way to go in terms of institutional adoption, but the present situation is very far from zero.

Bitcoin derivatives signal resilience as bulls hesitate

The Bitcoin options market confirms that derivatives continue to function as expected despite repeated failures to reclaim the $72,000 level.

BTC options put-to-call premiums at Deribit. Source: Laevitas.ch

The Bitcoin put-to-call options premium stayed near 0.7 on Monday. This shows that demand for put (sell) options is lower than for call (buy) options. A brief jump in demand for bearish strategies on Friday did not last. Essentially, the options market shows no signs of major trouble or lasting stress from the past few months.

Related: Bitcoin holders show ‘zero panic’ as BTC hits $70K amid Middle East tensions

Derivatives data also shows a lack of confidence among bulls, especially since Bitcoin is trading 45% below its all-time high. However, there is no evidence that institutional players have left the market. The $7.5 billion in Bitcoin futures open interest on the CME is a clear sign of institutional activity. Despite the selling pressure, every short (sell) order must be matched by a long (buy) order, which keeps the market balanced.

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Eventually, fear and uncertainty fade as more buyers return, marking the end of a downward trend. While it is unclear if $60,000 was the absolute bottom for this market cycle, Bitcoin has again shown it is a secure asset with a fixed supply. The $1.4 trillion cryptocurrency market has proven its strength and shows no signs of failing.