Crypto World
Cardano tests $0.25 again as analysts eye 200% ADA rally
Cardano (ADA) has stayed under pressure over the past year, even as some market signals point to a possible recovery.
Summary
- ADA holds near $0.25 support after a 40% drop, keeping rebound expectations in focus again.
- Santiment data shows active Cardano wallets averaged negative 43% returns, placing ADA in opportunity zone.
- The SEC classified ADA as a digital commodity on March 17, adding new regulatory context.
The token traded at $0.2628 at the time of reporting, with a 24-hour trading volume of $594.4 million and a market cap of about $9.69 billion. Although ADA gained 0.47% in the past day, it still fell 8.23% over the last seven days.
ADA is now trading close to the $0.25 level, which has become a key support zone in recent weeks. The token has tested this area several times over the past month and has managed to stay above it in most cases.
The only clear break came during the February 6 flash crash, when ADA briefly dropped to $0.22 before moving back above $0.25. That quick recovery kept market focus on whether the current range could again act as a base for a rebound.
Market analyst Ali Martinez said Cardano posted large gains the last two times it bounced from this support area on a higher timeframe. According to his data, ADA rose 85% in early 2023 after holding this zone.
The token also climbed about 200% between October 2023 and March 2024 after another successful defense of the same level. Those earlier moves have drawn fresh attention to the current setup as ADA trades near that support once again.
Another signal came from the weekly chart, where the TD Sequential printed a buy signal after ADA dropped from its mid-January peak of $0.44 to about $0.26. That decline left the token down roughly 40% in two months.
On-chain data has also shown weak positioning among active holders. Santiment reported that wallets active on the Cardano network over the past year are sitting on an average return of negative 43%, based on Market Value to Realized Value data. The firm said this could place ADA in an “opportunity” or “buy” zone.
SEC classification adds a new backdrop
The weak price action has come even after Cardano received positive regulatory news in the United States. On March 17, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission classified ADA as a digital commodity.
Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.
The net outflow of Bitcoin from exchanges over the past month suggests that investors have started to accumulate the cryptocurrency, according to a CryptoQuant analyst.
March has been largely dominated by Bitcoin (BTC) outflows from crypto exchanges, aside from one spike in inflows just before the asset tapped a six-week high of $76,000 on March 17, according to CryptoQuant data.
This negative net flow has remained present while Bitcoin “continues its liquidation phase,” the analyst known as Darkfost said on Wednesday.
“This persistent outflow suggests genuine accumulation by investors, who continue to buy and withdraw their BTC from exchange platforms,” he said.
Inflows to exchanges are generally bearish as investors prepare to exchange the asset for stablecoins, which adds to selling pressure, whereas outflows are often a sign of accumulation and a possible precursor to buying pressure.
Long-term accumulation rather than short-term speculation
The analyst added that the demand is not yet strong enough to restart a trend, “but it clearly indicates ongoing accumulation and is likely one of the factors behind the range formation that has been developing for several months now.”
Nick Ruck, director of LVRG Research, told Cointelegraph on Wednesday that the outflows signal “genuine long-term accumulation by investors rather than short-term speculation.”
The removal of Bitcoin from centralized platforms “showcases growing confidence in Bitcoin’s fundamentals amid current market conditions as holders indicate a lack of interest in selling to hedge against price volatility,” he added.
Related: Rising US Treasury yields, war in Iran, rising inflation risk pressure Bitcoin price
Jeff Mei, the chief operations officer at crypto exchange BTSE, told Cointelegraph that crypto has outperformed stocks and gold since the beginning of the Iran war, “so it’s no surprise that investors are accumulating Bitcoin.”
“Crypto was oversold in the weeks and months prior to the conflict, so it makes sense that it hasn’t sold off as hard as stocks have,” he added.
“This could also be an indication of Bitcoin emerging as a hedge against traditional stocks, as well as increased institutional ownership.”
Bitcoin makes higher highs, higher lows
Another indicator of potential trend formation is Bitcoin’s price making higher highs and higher lows, as it has done at least twice so far this month, according to TradingView.
In its weekly on-chain summary on Monday, Glassnode said that net unrealized profits and losses have improved slightly, “indicating a modest easing in unrealized losses across the market,” but cautioned that “sentiment is still under pressure despite tentative signs of stabilization.”
Magazine: Banks want to run Vietnam’s crypto exchanges, Boyaa’s $70M BTC plan: Asia Express
Non-crypto company Enlivex Therapeutics is expanding its exposure to Rain (RAIN), the token tied to a decentralized prediction market platform. The firm secured a $21 million debt facility from The Lind Partners to finance the purchase of additional Rain tokens and extend its option on a much larger tranche. In a Sunday move, Enlivex exercised an option to acquire about 3 billion RAIN tokens at a 62% discount for $10 million, and the agreement extends the right to purchase a further 272.1 billion RAIN tokens at the same price through December 2027. The financing is described by the company as a key component of its broader treasury strategy around Rain-linked assets.
Enlivex says the arrangement supports its operating plan while broadening its investor appeal through a diversified balance sheet. The Rain treasury’s value is closely tied to Rain’s decentralized prediction market platform, which operates with a built-in 2.5% fee that automatically buys back and burns RAIN tokens in an effort to bolster tokenomics through supply-demand dynamics.
Key takeaways
- Enlivex exercises an option to buy 3 billion Rain tokens at a 62% discount for $10 million, and extends the option to purchase an additional 272.1 billion RAIN tokens through December 2027.
- The Rain treasury gains exposure to tokens that participate in a platform whose fee mechanism triggers automatic buybacks and token burns, potentially impacting RAIN’s supply over time.
- Rain operates on the Ethereum Layer-2 Arbitrum network and has earned a spot in the top 10 prediction-market platforms by total value locked and fees, per DeFiLlama data.
- Enlivex also approved a $20 million share repurchase program, signaling a driver for shareholder value alongside its Rain exposure.
- Prediction markets have seen dramatic growth, with volumes rising roughly 1,200% to about $23.3 billion from February 2025 to February 2026, though Kalshi and Polymarket continue to account for the majority of trading activity (over 80%).
Enlivex’s Rain exposure deepens
Enlivex’s latest financing rounds out a longer-term treasury strategy centered on Rain. The company disclosed that it exercised the option to acquire 3 billion Rain tokens at a 62% discount for $10 million on Sunday, with a further option to purchase an additional 272.1 billion RAIN tokens at the same price extended through December 2027. The liability side of the arrangement comes in the form of a $21 million debt facility from The Lind Partners, a New York-based asset manager, enabling the purchases and the extended option window.
The move highlights a broader trend where traditional, non-crypto firms are incorporating digital asset holdings to bolster their balance sheets and diversify investor appeal. Enlivex’s executive chair, Shai Novik, framed the deal as a continuation of the company’s strategic commitment to Rain, stressing that the financing would fund both operations and the ongoing accumulation of Rain-based assets.
Rain’s own mechanics underpin the treasury strategy. The platform levies a 2.5% fee on trades, a portion of which is designated for automatic buybacks and burns of RAIN tokens. This mechanism is designed to influence the token’s supply-and-demand balance over time, potentially supporting price dynamics independent of broader market moves.
Treasury moves and corporate diversification
Alongside the Rain buys, Enlivex announced a $20 million share repurchase program. The buyback is positioned as a move to enhance shareholder value while the company pursues its core business in cell therapies for conditions such as knee osteoarthritis. The combination of debt-financed Rain acquisitions and a stock repurchase program underscores a strategic tilt toward capital management that some investors may view as a sign of confidence in Enlivex’s equity and liquidity position amid a turbulent market backdrop for small-cap biotech firms with non-traditional crypto exposures.
Rain’s link to Enlivex sits within a growing space where non-crypto enterprises seek crypto exposure as a hedge or growth lever. The dynamic also sits alongside ongoing policy and market scrutiny surrounding token-based treasuries, highlighting a need for disciplined risk management and transparent reporting as these cross-industry holdings mature.
Rain’s economics and market position
Rain’s token economics hinge on a built-in burn mechanism driven by a 2.5% platform fee that funds buybacks and token burning. This setup is intended to create a cyclical demand impulse for RAIN amid trading activity on the decentralized prediction market platform. The token’s price reaction following Enlivex’s disclosure reflects the market’s sensitivity to large treasury moves and token-asset exposure by non-crypto corporates.
Trading data from CoinGecko shows Rain fluctuating in the wake of the announcement. The token rose about 7% to around $0.009 before easing to roughly $0.0088, with the 24-hour change curling around flat to a 0.3% gain. Enlivex’s stock, ENVL, likewise moved little on the day—closing near $1.10 and edging higher to about $1.15 in after-hours trading—illustrating a market where traditional equities and crypto-tied instruments can move asynchronously on policy, earnings, and corporate strategy signals.
Rain’s market position is anchored on Arbitrum, an Ethereum Layer-2 network that hosts a growing ecosystem of decentralized finance and prediction-market protocols. DeFiLlama’s data shows Rain is among the top 10 prediction-market platforms by total value locked and fees over recent periods, reinforcing Rain’s relevance within the broader DeFi and forecasting sectors. In the wider market, Rain competes with established players like Kalshi and Polymarket, which together have historically accounted for a substantial share of prediction-market trading volumes.
Looking at the broader market backdrop, prediction markets have experienced a surge in activity. Data dashboards tracked by analytics platforms show volumes expanding roughly 1,200% year over year to reach about $23.3 billion between February 2025 and February 2026. That rapid growth underscores the potential long-term demand for decentralized forecasting tools, even as platform leadership remains concentrated among a handful of incumbents.
For investors and builders, the Enlivex development highlights several important considerations. First, the willingness of a non-crypto company to diversify into tokenized assets tied to a prediction market signals a potential shift in corporate treasury strategies, particularly if the token’s burn-and-buyback mechanics prove effective at sustaining demand. Second, the sustained liquidity and pricing of Rain will hinge on market depth and the ability of Rain-based platforms to attract meaningful trading volumes beyond a few lead markets. Third, regulatory and accounting implications of large, cross-asset treasury programs remain a critical area to monitor for both Enlivex and similar firms contemplating crypto-integration strategies.
Beyond the immediate deal, observers will watch for how Lind Partners structures the debt facility, how the Rain treasury evolves with ongoing buybacks, and whether the extended option window through 2027 translates into meaningful capital gains if Rain’s platform scales or if macro conditions dampen demand for prediction-market exposure. The next few quarters should reveal whether this cross-industry treasury experiment yields constructive outcomes for investors, token holders, and the broader market.
As Enlivex advances its Rain strategy, market participants will be watching for signals about liquidity in the Rain market, the sustainability of the buyback regime, and how Rain-backed treasuries perform relative to more conventional crypto exposures.
Enlivex’s activity with Rain continues to illustrate a growing trend where corporate treasuries experiment with decentralized finance instruments to diversify holdings, unlock potential upside, and align with an expanding ecosystem of prediction-market protocols on Layer-2 networks like Arbitrum. The coming months should clarify whether these treasury strategies can withstand market cycles and regulatory developments while delivering tangible value for both corporate actors and the broader Rain community.
Sources: GlobeNewswire press release on Enlivex’s debt financing and Rain-related updates; CoinGecko price data for RAIN and ENVL; DeFiLlama protocol rankings for Rain; Dune Analytics dashboards for prediction-market volumes.
Irish national police say they have cracked one of 12 Bitcoin wallets linked to a convicted drug dealer, years after they were confiscated and their access codes were thought to be gone forever.
Ireland’s Criminal Assets Bureau (CAB) said in a statement on Tuesday that it had “gained access to and seized a cryptocurrency wallet” containing 500 Bitcoin (BTC), worth more than $35 million, with the help of Europol’s European Cybercrime Centre.
“Europol hosted operational meetings at its headquarters in The Hague, the Netherlands and provided critical support to Bureau investigators and analysts with the provision of highly complex technical expertise and decryption resources vital to the success of the operation,” the CAB said.
The Irish Times reported on Tuesday that the wallet is one of 12 holding a total of 6,000 Bitcoin once owned by Clifton Collins, a drug dealer sentenced to five years in prison for growing and selling cannabis. The access codes were lost when the paper they were printed on disappeared.
Most of the time, losing a Bitcoin private key means there’s no way to recover it or crack the wallet; the funds are permanently inaccessible due to public-key cryptography.
Cointelegraph has contacted the CAB and An Garda Síochána for comment.
Wallet flagged as belonging to Collins moves 500 BTC
A wallet labeled “Clifton Collins: Lost Keys” by blockchain intelligence platform Arkham transferred 500 Bitcoin to Coinbase Prime on Tuesday, more than a decade after the coins were first deposited.
Arkham lists Collins as controlling 14 addresses with total holdings of 5,500 Bitcoin, valued at more than $391 million.
Collins was arrested in 2017 after police searched his car and found a stash of cannabis, according to the Guardian.
Related: Coinbase, Microsoft and Europol take down phishing service ‘Tycoon 2FA’
Police said Collins used proceeds from his drug operation to purchase 6,000 Bitcoin in late 2011 and early 2012, spreading the holdings across 12 wallets. He stored the wallet keys on a single sheet of A4 paper, hidden inside the aluminum cap of a fishing rod case at his rental home.
After his arrest and sentencing, Collins’ landlord cleared out his rental home and discarded his belongings. Collins, however, claimed the fishing rod case had been stolen before the landlord ever entered the property.
Magazine: Banks want to run Vietnam’s crypto exchanges, Boyaa’s $70M BTC plan: Asia Express
Naples is set to become a key hub for emerging technologies this summer as ctrl/shift 2026, a major Web3, AI, and quantum computing conference, takes place from June 13 to 15 at Villa Doria d’Angri.
The event, powered by NapulETH, will gather institutions, researchers, developers, and investors to explore how these technologies are increasingly converging into a single innovation stack shaping the future of digital infrastructure.
Following the success of NapulETH 2025, which attracted over 1,200 participants and more than 120 speakers, the 2026 edition aims to further position Italy, and particularly Naples, as a growing center for high-level tech and blockchain events in Europe.
A convergence-focused Web3 and AI event in Italy
Unlike traditional tech conferences that separate verticals, ctrl/shift 2026 is built around a convergence model, combining Web3, artificial intelligence, and quantum computing into a unified framework.
The program is structured across three main tracks:
- Artificial Intelligence, focusing on autonomous agents and system-wide intelligence integration
- Web3 and Digital Assets, covering regulation, digital identity, and institutional adoption, including MiCA frameworks
- Quantum Computing, with a focus on post-quantum cryptography and long-term security challenges
This approach reflects a broader shift in the industry, where infrastructure, governance, and financial systems are evolving together rather than in isolation.
Hackathon and networking events to drive real-world innovation
Beyond panels and keynote sessions, ctrl/shift 2026 will feature a hackathon designed to turn concepts into working solutions, allowing participants to build and test ideas in real time.
Side events are also a core part of the experience.
One of the highlights is the NapulETH VIP Boat Party on June 16, a full-day networking event in the Bay of Naples, where founders, investors, and researchers are expected to connect in a more informal and high-value setting.
Institutional speakers and industry experts confirmed
The speaker lineup reflects strong institutional and industry involvement across multiple sectors.
Policy and regulation
- Marcello Coppo, Italian Parliament
- Giulio Centemero, Italian Parliament
Finance and academia
- Luisa Fischietti, Head of Italy ETFs, Borsa Italiana
- Francesco Pierangeli, Director of MSc in FinTech, University of Birmingham
Blockchain and technology
- Antonio Sanso, Ethereum Foundation
- Eugenio Reggianini, European Blockchain Association
- Luca Boiardi, The Crypto Gateway
Legal and compliance
- Marco Tullio Giordano, cybersecurity and Web3 legal expert
- Giuseppe Vaciago, Supreme Court lawyer and digital forensics specialist
Additional collaborations are in progress with institutions such as the Bank of Italy, Consob, and Banca Sella.
WeMakeFuture partnership strengthens AI track
A key addition to the 2026 edition is the partnership with WeMakeFuture, one of Europe’s leading innovation and digital culture events.
WeMakeFuture will curate the AI track, contributing speakers, content, and community, and reinforcing ctrl/shift’s positioning as a multi-sector technology summit rather than a single-industry event.
Sponsors and ecosystem support
The event is backed by a growing ecosystem of sponsors and partners, including:
Binance Italy is also expected to host a dedicated meetup on June 13.
Media coverage will include major Web3 outlets such as BeInCrypto and The Cryptoeconomist.
Tickets and participation details
Tickets for ctrl/shift 2026 are currently available in tiered pricing:
- Regular: €20
- VIP: €125, including access to all conference days, side events, and the June 16 boat networking experience
👉 Tickets: https://luma.com/hfs5ijms
👉 Official website: https://www.ctrlshift.events/
👉 Speaker applications: https://speak.ctrlshift.events
Why ctrl/shift 2026 stands out in the European tech landscape
As Web3, AI, and quantum computing continue to converge, events like ctrl/shift 2026 highlight the growing need for cross-disciplinary collaboration between technology builders, institutions, and regulators.
With its mix of technical depth, institutional participation, and real-world application through hackathons and networking, the Naples-based event is positioning itself as one of the most relevant blockchain and AI conferences in Italy for 2026.
Ethereum price has formed a strong support at $2,100 as whales continue accumulating the asset. Now, a bullish pattern on charts hints at more potential upside over the coming sessions.
Summary
- Ethereum held firm above the $2,100 support as whales accumulated over 750,000 ETH in the past 48 hours, signaling sustained buying interest.
- The asset rebounded more than 3% as improved risk sentiment followed U.S.-led ceasefire efforts, with crude oil prices slipping below $90.
- A cup and handle pattern has formed on the daily chart, with a breakout above $2,384 potentially opening the path toward the $3,000 level.
According to data from crypto.news, Ethereum bulls managed to fend off a drop below the 100 support amidst some market correction on Sunday, arising from broader macroeconomic uncertainty.
The largest altcoin subsequently rallied over 3% to $2,170 as investor risk sentiment improved after the U.S. attempted to negotiate a temporary ceasefire with Iran through diplomatic channels, which saw crude oil slide back under $90.
Ethereum (ETH) price rebounded amid whale accumulation, which often sparks retail FOMO, who follow the smart money. Data from Santiment shows that whale wallets holding between 100 and 100,000 ETH bought over 750,000 ETH over the past 48 hours.
It also follows as Ethereum treasury company Bitmine continues to aggressively purchase more ETH as it nears its goal of owning at least 5% of the ETH supply, as earlier reported by crypto.news.
Another potential catalyst is the supply crunch. Notably, Ethereum exchange reserves have fallen to an all-time low of nearly 15 million. Depleting exchange reserves means investors could be moving assets to cold storage or staking them to earn passive rewards. Investors often see this as an incredibly bullish signal.
The Ethereum Foundation, the non-profit dedicated to the ecosystem, is also working to mitigate threats posed by quantum computing. Reports indicate that the new roadmap aims to transition the network to quantum-safe cryptography for centuries of security.
On the daily chart, Ethereum price has formed a giant cup and handle pattern, a popular bullish continuation pattern in technical analysis. A break above the neckline of the pattern confirms the setup, usually resulting in sustained upside over the following sessions.
In Ethereum’s case, the neckline of the pattern lies at $2,384. If bulls manage to breach through this level, ETH price could swing above $2,400 and much higher towards the psychological $3,000 mark as the measured move targets become active.
Technical indicators seem to suggest bulls still have plenty of gas in the tank. The Supertrend indicator has flashed green, a sign that the prevailing momentum has shifted in favor of the buyers, while the RSI has rebounded from neutral territory to suggest that there is still significant room for growth before the asset becomes overbought.
Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.
The Iran war has set oil on fire and crypto exchanges are racing to offer 24/7 trading to fill tradfi gaps, with most copying decentralized giant Hyperliquid’s perpetual-futures play.
Crypto market-making giant Wintermute is taking a different approach. On Tuesday, its derivatives unit, Wintermute Asia, launched over-the-counter (OTC) trading in WTI crude oil contracts for difference (CFDs).
CFD is type of derivative that allows traders to speculate on the price movement of an asset without owning it. Similar to futures, CFDs track the asset’s price, but the key difference is that only the difference between the opening and closing prices is exchanged between the trader and the broker when the contract is closed.
These are typically traded over-the-counter and can be tailored in term sof size, duration and margin requirements. This bespoke flexibility allows professional traders and institutions to design strategies that match specific risk-return objectives, rather than conforming to one-size-fits-all derivatives such as Hyperliquid’s oil perpetual futures.
Wintermute’s CFD launch comes amid weeks of intense geopolitical volatility in the Middle East. Escalating tensions between Iran and the U.S.–Israel coalition have left traders in a bind over weekends when traditional finance markets are closed, limiting their ability to adjust positions or manage risk effectively. This led to outsized trading activity on Hyperliquid’s energy market perpetuals and prompted WIntermute to offer CFDs.
“We are seeing strong demand from counterparties looking to use digital asset infrastructure to trade traditional products like oil. The recent price action made that need much more immediate, as many investors were unable to act until traditional venues reopened,” said Evgeny Gaevoy, CEO of Wintermute.
“A Wintermute counterparty could have traded the weekend move before the Monday gap or responded immediately to the reversal,” Gaevoy added.
Note that Wintermute is a counterparty in the CFD. Traders aren’t matched with each other; they are trading directly against Wintermute, which is taking on the market risk. The firm is, therefore, leveraging its risk management systems and deep liquidity to monetize demand for 24/7 crude than simply supplying liquidity to perpetual futures.
Traders can access WTI CFDs with zero trading fees, using a variety of fiat and crypto assets as margin, the official announcement said. Contracts can be executed via chat, Wintermute’s electronic OTC platform, or API. The rollout builds on the recent introduction of tokenized gold, further broadening Wintermute Asia’s suite of offerings beyond purely digital assets.
Immunotherapy company Enlivex has raised $21 million via a debt financing agreement to purchase another 3 billion tokens tied to the prediction market platform Rain.
Enlivex said on Tuesday it exercised an option to acquire another 3 billion Rain (RAIN) tokens at a 62% discount for $10 million on Sunday while extending its option to purchase another 272.1 billion RAIN tokens at the same price to December 2027. The debt financing came from The Lind Partners, a New York-based asset manager.
“We are continuing to execute our prediction markets treasury strategy, and we are pleased that Lind provided us with substantial capital, allowing us to continue the execution of our operating plan, as well as to acquire approximately three billion additional RAIN tokens,” said Enlivex executive chair Shai Novik.
Enlivex develops cell therapy solutions for knee osteoarthritis, but is one of several non-crypto companies that have purchased cryptocurrencies in the hopes that it will strengthen their balance sheets and attract a wider base of investors.
The company also said it approved a $20 million share buyback program, aimed at enhancing shareholder value.
The value of Enlivex’s RAIN treasury is directly tied to Rain’s decentralized prediction market platform, which has a built-in 2.5% fee that automatically buys back and burns RAIN tokens in a bid to boost the token’s supply-demand dynamics.
RAIN token, Envilex shares trade mostly flat
The Rain token rose 7% to $0.009 after Enlivex’s announcement before falling slightly to $0.0088, trading flat over the last 24 hours with a 0.3% gain, according to CoinGecko.
Shares in Enlivex (ENVL) also traded mostly flat on Tuesday and closed the trading day down 0.9% to $1.10, but gained 4.5% in after-hours trading, rising to $1.15.
Related: Kalshi, Polymarket eye $20B valuations in potential fundraising: WSJ
Rain runs on the Ethereum Layer-2 Arbitrum network and ranks among the top 10 prediction market platforms by total value locked and fees over the past seven days, DeFiLlama data shows.
Prediction markets have become one of the hottest use cases in crypto, with trading volumes increasing more than 1,200% to $23.3 billion between February 2025 and February 2026.
The market continues to be dominated by Kalshi and Polymarket, however, which account for more than 80% of trading volumes.
Magazine: IronClaw rivals OpenClaw, Olas launches bots for Polymarket — AI Eye
Whales Control More of DeFi Than You Think
(And they’re better at the game.)
DeFi sells a powerful narrative: open, permissionless, and fair. Anyone with a wallet can participate. No gatekeepers. No middlemen. Just code.
But beneath that ideal lies a quieter reality—one where a relatively small group of high-capital players, known as whales, exert outsized influence over markets, governance, and even protocol design.
It’s not exactly a conspiracy. It’s just math… and a lot of money.
Who Are the Whales?
In traditional finance, they’d be hedge funds, market makers, or ultra-high-net-worth individuals. In DeFi, they’re wallet addresses holding massive amounts of capital—often early adopters, crypto-native funds, or insiders who got in before things were cool.
While retail users are debating APRs on Twitter, whales are moving liquidity across protocols like chess pieces—strategically, quietly, and with a level of coordination that’s hard to track in real time.
Liquidity Is Power
In DeFi, liquidity isn’t just participation—it’s control.
Protocols rely on liquidity pools to function. The deeper the pool, the better the trading experience. But here’s the catch: whales provide a significant chunk of that liquidity.
That gives them leverage:
- They can move markets by adding or removing liquidity.
- They can farm incentives efficiently, capturing the majority of rewards.
- They can influence token price stability just by repositioning funds.
When a whale exits a pool, it’s not just a withdrawal—it’s a shockwave.
Governance: One Token, One Vote… Sort Of
On paper, DeFi governance is democratic. In reality, it’s closer to shareholder capitalism.
Voting power is typically proportional to token holdings. So when whales hold a large percentage of governance tokens, they effectively steer protocol decisions.
That includes:
- Emissions schedules
- Treasury allocations
- Protocol upgrades
- Incentive structures
Retail users can vote—but whales decide.
And if you’ve ever wondered why some proposals seem oddly favorable to large holders… well, now you know.
The Strategy Gap
It’s not just about capital. Whales are better at the game.
They have:
- Access to private deal flow (early token allocations, OTC trades)
- Custom tools and bots for execution and monitoring
- Teams and analysts tracking opportunities across chains
- Risk management frameworks that go beyond “ape and pray.”
While retail users chase yield, whales engineer it.
They hedge positions, loop strategies, and optimize gas like it’s a competitive sport. By the time a “hot opportunity” hits Crypto Twitter, whales have already extracted most of the value.
Incentives Are Designed Around Them
Here’s the uncomfortable truth: many DeFi protocols need whales.
High TVL looks good. Deep liquidity attracts users. Large holders stabilize ecosystems—until they don’t.
So protocols often design incentives that naturally favor bigger players:
- Tiered rewards
- Volume-based perks
- Early access programs
- Governance influence
It’s not malicious—it’s survival. But it does tilt the playing field.
So, Where Does That Leave Retail?
At a disadvantage? Yes. Completely powerless? Not quite.
Retail users still have advantages:
- Agility – You can enter and exit positions faster without moving markets.
- Narrative awareness – You’re often closer to emerging trends and communities.
- Lower expectations – You don’t need to deploy millions to win.
The key is understanding the game you’re in.
Stop assuming DeFi is a level playing field. It isn’t. But that doesn’t mean you can’t play smart.
Playing Smarter in a Whale’s Ocean
If whales dominate through capital and strategy, retail wins through awareness and timing.
A few mindset shifts:
- Follow liquidity, not hype
- Watch wallet movements, not influencer threads
- Prioritize sustainability over short-term APY
- Assume you’re late—and act accordingly
And most importantly: don’t confuse accessibility with equality.
Final Reflections
DeFi didn’t eliminate power dynamics—it just made them more transparent (if you know where to look).
Whales aren’t villains. They’re just better-equipped players operating in a system that rewards scale, speed, and strategy.
The real edge isn’t pretending they don’t exist.
It’s learning how they move—and positioning yourself before the splash hits.
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Prediction markets are exciting, but they’re not reliable wealth builders for retail users.
Research by Citizens shows that retail prediction market users are losing more money than legal sports bettors, with the sharpest traders and market makers capturing returns on the other side of their flow which. The research note also reveals the platforms are drawing a younger demographic than traditional sportsbooks.
The median return for a prediction market user was -8% from July 2025 through mid-March, compared with -5% for sports book users over the same period, Citizens JMP Securities analyst Jordan Bender wrote, citing transaction data from analytics company Juice Reel.
Individuals trading more than $500,000 on prediction markets generated a median ROI of +2.6%, consistent with sharp-bettor benchmarks validated by professional players. Every cohort below that level was negative, sliding to -26.8% for users trading less than $100.
No cohort within legal sports betting was profitable either, but the decay is less severe: the $500,000-plus sports betting cohort posted -0.6%, and the smallest accounts came in at -29.3%.
One of the major differences between the two platforms is who is on the other side of the trade.
Prediction markets do not limit or ban profitable users the way regulated sportsbooks do, concentrating informed flow on the platforms. That flips the traditional model. In sportsbooks, the house manages risk and filters out winning players. In prediction markets, retail traders are directly exposed to professionals, market makers, and high-volume participants who consistently take the other side of less informed flow.
Two professional bettors on a Citizens JMP call last week said prediction markets offer a more attractive path to positive returns precisely because retail users provide the liquidity, the note reads.
Are prediction markets a threat to online gambling?
Gaming CEOs have dismissed the threat of prediction markets, according to the Citizens JMP report, which compiled executive commentary from 4Q25 earnings calls.
DraftKings’ Jason Robins said prediction markets are not materially incremental to existing customers. Flutter’s Peter Jackson said the company found no evidence of material cannibalization. BetMGM’s Adam Greenblat estimated a low-to-mid-single-digit percentage impact on betting revenue. Citizens JMP’s own estimate is around 5%.
The bigger issue may not be cannibalization but acquisition. About 24% of Kalshi users are under 25, with a median age of 31, compared with just 7% for DraftKings and FanDuel, where the median age is closer to 35, according to Sensor Tower data cited in the report. Roughly 90% of DraftKings revenue comes from users over 30, the report said.
FanDuel and DraftKings downloads fell 18% and 13% year-over-year from September 2025 through February 2026, per Sensor Tower data cited by Citizens JMP. Over the same stretch, Kalshi logged 6.3 million downloads.
Prediction markets may not be pulling existing sportsbook users away. They may be intercepting the next generation before they ever download DraftKings.
Whales Control More of DeFi Than You Think
(And they’re better at the game.)
DeFi sells a powerful narrative: open, permissionless, and fair. Anyone with a wallet can participate. No gatekeepers. No middlemen. Just code.
But beneath that ideal lies a quieter reality—one where a relatively small group of high-capital players, known as whales, exert outsized influence over markets, governance, and even protocol design.
It’s not exactly a conspiracy. It’s just math… and a lot of money.
Who Are the Whales?
In traditional finance, they’d be hedge funds, market makers, or ultra-high-net-worth individuals. In DeFi, they’re wallet addresses holding massive amounts of capital—often early adopters, crypto-native funds, or insiders who got in before things were cool.
While retail users are debating APRs on Twitter, whales are moving liquidity across protocols like chess pieces—strategically, quietly, and with a level of coordination that’s hard to track in real time.
Liquidity Is Power
In DeFi, liquidity isn’t just participation—it’s control.
Protocols rely on liquidity pools to function. The deeper the pool, the better the trading experience. But here’s the catch: whales provide a significant chunk of that liquidity.
That gives them leverage:
- They can move markets by adding or removing liquidity.
- They can farm incentives efficiently, capturing the majority of rewards.
- They can influence token price stability just by repositioning funds.
When a whale exits a pool, it’s not just a withdrawal—it’s a shockwave.
Governance: One Token, One Vote… Sort Of
On paper, DeFi governance is democratic. In reality, it’s closer to shareholder capitalism.
Voting power is typically proportional to token holdings. So when whales hold a large percentage of governance tokens, they effectively steer protocol decisions.
That includes:
- Emissions schedules
- Treasury allocations
- Protocol upgrades
- Incentive structures
Retail users can vote—but whales decide.
And if you’ve ever wondered why some proposals seem oddly favorable to large holders… well, now you know.
The Strategy Gap
It’s not just about capital. Whales are better at the game.
They have:
- Access to private deal flow (early token allocations, OTC trades)
- Custom tools and bots for execution and monitoring
- Teams and analysts tracking opportunities across chains
- Risk management frameworks that go beyond “ape and pray.”
While retail users chase yield, whales engineer it.
They hedge positions, loop strategies, and optimize gas like it’s a competitive sport. By the time a “hot opportunity” hits Crypto Twitter, whales have already extracted most of the value.
Incentives Are Designed Around Them
Here’s the uncomfortable truth: many DeFi protocols need whales.
High TVL looks good. Deep liquidity attracts users. Large holders stabilize ecosystems—until they don’t.
So protocols often design incentives that naturally favor bigger players:
- Tiered rewards
- Volume-based perks
- Early access programs
- Governance influence
It’s not malicious—it’s survival. But it does tilt the playing field.
So, Where Does That Leave Retail?
At a disadvantage? Yes. Completely powerless? Not quite.
Retail users still have advantages:
- Agility – You can enter and exit positions faster without moving markets.
- Narrative awareness – You’re often closer to emerging trends and communities.
- Lower expectations – You don’t need to deploy millions to win.
The key is understanding the game you’re in.
Stop assuming DeFi is a level playing field. It isn’t. But that doesn’t mean you can’t play smart.
Playing Smarter in a Whale’s Ocean
If whales dominate through capital and strategy, retail wins through awareness and timing.
A few mindset shifts:
- Follow liquidity, not hype
- Watch wallet movements, not influencer threads
- Prioritize sustainability over short-term APY
- Assume you’re late—and act accordingly
And most importantly: don’t confuse accessibility with equality.
Final Reflections
DeFi didn’t eliminate power dynamics—it just made them more transparent (if you know where to look).
Whales aren’t villains. They’re just better-equipped players operating in a system that rewards scale, speed, and strategy.
The real edge isn’t pretending they don’t exist.
It’s learning how they move—and positioning yourself before the splash hits.
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