Bitcoin BTC$58,944.98 is trading in a narrow range between $59,000 and $60,000 for the fifth straight day, a quiet stretch that some analysts warn is more dangerous than it looks because of where it is happening.

The range itself is normal. Bitcoin spent much of 2024, from March to October, consolidating between $55,000 and $70,000 with occasional overshoots in both directions. What makes the current setup riskier is its location, said Alex Kuptsikevich, chief market analyst at FxPro, in an email to CoinDesk.

This band sits below the levels that sparked rebounds in February and early this month, as well as the 50-day and 200-day moving averages. Traders closely watch the two averages, and both are sloping downward right now, indicating a bearish bias.

And that is the signature of a downtrend rather than a market building a base to climb from.

“This is a rather dangerous consolidation for the bulls,” Kuptsikevich said, noting that the 2024 version formed in a rising market while this one is forming in a falling one. If the pattern breaks lower rather than resolving higher, he said, the next meaningful step down is around $40,000.

Some onchain indicators suggest the same. Pseudonymous CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost flagged signs that long-term holders are starting to capitulate, or selling at a loss. In past cycles, this phase has marked attractive entry points for buyers, even as it signals near-term pain.

Kaspa price has surged about 15% over the past day as investors have positioned ahead of the network’s long-awaited Toccata hard fork despite continued weakness across the crypto market.

According to the Kaspa network, the Toccata hard fork is scheduled to activate on the mainnet at approximately 16:15 UTC on June 30. Exchanges including HTX temporarily suspended deposits and withdrawals ahead of the upgrade to support the transition.

The upgrade introduces native smart contract functionality through the SilverScript programming language, while also adding support for KRC-20 tokens, decentralized finance applications, and zero-knowledge privacy features.

Together, these additions remove one of the network’s biggest limitations by expanding Kaspa beyond its original role as a high-speed proof-of-work payment blockchain.

Toccata upgrade has changed Kaspa’s utility

With the hard fork approaching, trading activity has accelerated as investors position for higher on-chain activity. According to the Kaspa network, the upgrade is expected to enable developers to build decentralized applications directly on Kaspa by introducing native smart contract functionality, expanding the network beyond its traditional payment use case.

On-chain activity has also supported the bullish narrative. The network is approaching a cumulative milestone of roughly 2.35 billion transactions, demonstrating continued usage of its BlockDAG architecture even as new features are introduced. Supporters of the network have long argued that BlockDAG enables higher parallel transaction throughput than conventional blockchain designs, reducing congestion during periods of elevated demand.

The technical setup amplified the move. Before the hard fork, Kaspa had spent several months trading inside a prolonged consolidation range, with buyers repeatedly defending the $0.025-$0.030 area. The upgrade arrived while many derivatives traders remained positioned for further downside, creating conditions for a short squeeze as spot demand increased.

Forced liquidations of bearish positions added momentum to the rally once price broke above its recent trading range.

The daily chart also shows the recovery pushing KAS back above its 20-day simple moving average near $0.030 while testing resistance around the 50-day moving average near $0.0317. At the same time, the MACD has produced a bullish crossover with the histogram turning positive, indicating improving momentum. 

Still, the token trades below its declining 100-day and 200-day moving averages, suggesting that a sustained trend reversal would require additional buying pressure.

Technical buying has outweighed macro headwinds

Kaspa’s rally has unfolded while much of the cryptocurrency market continues to struggle under an unfavorable macro backdrop. A stronger-than-expected 4.1% U.S. Core PCE inflation reading and the Federal Reserve’s hawkish policy stance under Chair Kevin Warsh have pressured risk assets in recent days, contributing to an estimated $1.79 billion in cumulative outflows from U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds.

Unlike many proof-of-stake networks, however, Kaspa operates on a proof-of-work model with approximately 95.4% of its maximum supply already in circulation. With new token issuance steadily declining over time, the introduction of smart contracts and execution fees through the Toccata upgrade has strengthened the network’s utility without materially increasing supply.

Those supply dynamics, combined with renewed developer opportunities and short-covering activity, have helped Kaspa outperform most major cryptocurrencies even as capital has continued flowing out of other digital assets.

Whether the rally extends from here may depend on whether buyers can reclaim resistance around the 50-day and 100-day moving averages before challenging the longer-term 200-day average near $0.0353.

Though BTC has recently stabilized around $60,000, the prospects for a meaningful recovery remain bleak because institutional demand is falling significantly short of soaking up supply.

The latest chart by Glassnode shows that bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have sold off 71,600 BTC, worth over $4 billion, this month, the largest redemption on record. Meanwhile, corporate treasuries, or digital asset treasury firms, have snapped up just 7,500 BTC. Add to that the fresh coins mined each day, and the net figure comes to around -77,000 BTC ($4.4 billion).

In other words, more supply is hitting the market than the biggest players are absorbing, creating what analysts call a “supply overhang.” Big-money vehicles are actually adding to the selling pressure.

Against this backdrop, Strategy (MSTR), the largest bitcoin digital asset company, announced a BTC monetization plan on Monday, authorizing up to $1.25 billion in potential bitcoin sales, mainly to build a $2.55 billion U.S. dollar reserve to cover preferred dividends and interest expenses.

These developments suggest that any price bounce is likely to be short-lived, unless those flows flip positive and institutional demand returns. It’s a key signal for traders watching whether the recovery has real fuel or is just temporary.

Australia’s crypto travel rule comes into force on July 1, adding new data checks for users who send or receive digital assets through regulated exchanges. 

AUSTRAC’s transitional rules say some obligations for new virtual asset services were deferred until July 1, including travel rule obligations for virtual asset transfers.

The change affects virtual asset service providers with a link to Australia. AUSTRAC says covered services include crypto-to-fiat exchange, crypto-to-crypto exchange, safekeeping services, transfer services and certain services linked to token offers.

Exchanges must collect transfer details

Under AUSTRAC’s travel rule guidance, businesses that transfer money, virtual assets or property for customers must collect, verify and pass on key information about the transfer. AUSTRAC says the rule helps create transparency across the transfer chain and gives regulators and law enforcement access to needed data.

For virtual asset transfers, AUSTRAC says ordering institutions must check whether the receiving wallet is custodial or self-hosted. They must also carry out due diligence and pass on required information when the other institution is properly licensed or not required to be licensed.

Self-custody transfers face extra checks

Transfers to self-hosted wallets receive different treatment. AUSTRAC says a business does not need to send information to another business in the transfer chain when the transfer goes to a self-hosted wallet. However, the ordering institution must still collect and verify payer information and collect payee and tracing information.

This is the point drawing user concern online. Trader Greeny wrote on X that “crypto in Australia changes forever” and said small transfers would face the same data checks as larger transfers. Separate compliance summaries also state that Australia has no transaction threshold for the crypto travel rule, meaning the rule applies regardless of transfer size.

Users debate privacy and compliance

Reddit posts show mixed reactions from Australian crypto users. One user wrote, “you can forget about sending crypto anonymously,” while another said “the regulated platforms were never anonymous.” The comments reflect a split between users focused on privacy and others who view exchange reporting as expected under financial crime rules.

AUSTRAC has also updated broader reporting systems. The agency said it received more than 2 million threshold transaction reports and over 450,000 suspicious matter reports last year, and those figures may rise as more businesses fall under the framework from July 1.

Broader crypto rules are tightening

Australia’s travel rule arrives as the country moves toward broader crypto licensing. As reported by crypto.news, ASIC recently extended temporary licensing relief for crypto firms until Sept. 30, giving companies more time to apply for financial services licenses.

As previously reported by crypto.news, Australia’s Senate committee also backed a bill that would bring crypto exchanges and tokenized custody platforms under the country’s financial services licensing regime. That framework targets platforms that hold customer assets and requires governance, disclosure and custody standards.

The July 1 rule does not ban self-custody or crypto transfers. It changes how regulated platforms handle transfers when user assets enter or leave those platforms. For Australian users, the near-term change is practical: exchanges may ask for more details before processing deposits or withdrawals.

TL;DR

• Bitcoin open interest has dropped from nearly $45 billion to $20.4 billion, reflecting a major reduction in market leverage.
• The decline followed several liquidation events that gradually unwound leveraged futures positions.
• Bitcoin’s price and open interest have fallen at a similar pace, pointing to an orderly deleveraging process.
• Despite the sharp reduction in leverage, the data does not confirm that Bitcoin has reached a market bottom.

The Bitcoin (BTC) futures market has undergone a significant reduction in leverage, with open interest declining from a peak of nearly $45 billion in July 2025 to approximately $20.4 billion, according to CryptoQuant data. The decline reflects a broad unwinding of leveraged positions rather than a sudden market collapse, as both Bitcoin’s price and open interest have fallen at a comparable pace.

Open interest represents the total notional value of outstanding futures contracts. A decline in this metric indicates that positions are being closed, either through liquidations or traders voluntarily reducing exposure. The latest data shows that more than 45% of peak leverage has been removed from the market.

Open Interest Decline Mirrors Bitcoin’s Price Correction

CryptoQuant’s data shows that the reduction in open interest coincided with several notable liquidation events over the past year. The largest occurred on October 10, when Bitcoin fell from an all-time high near $122,574 to roughly $105,000 following record single-day liquidations.

The deleveraging continued into early February, when open interest declined by more than 20% within days as Bitcoin dropped to around $61,000. Additional liquidations through June further reduced outstanding futures positions, bringing total open interest down to approximately $20.4 billion.

According to the data, leverage and Bitcoin’s price have declined at a similar rate throughout the period. This pattern suggests that excess leverage has been gradually removed from the market instead of triggering a disorderly selloff where prices fall much faster than positions are unwound.

Data Shows Deleveraging Has Continued, but Does Not Confirm a Market Bottom

Despite the sharp decline in leverage, the available data does not indicate that Bitcoin has reached a market bottom. Historical observations note that falling open interest has previously been followed by extended periods of sideways trading or additional price declines before a sustained recovery emerged.

Current open interest also remains well above the levels recorded during 2023, when it fell to roughly $10 billion, indicating that further deleveraging remains possible based on historical comparisons.

Meanwhile, the weekly Bitcoin price chart shows the asset trading below $60,000, just below the $68,000–$70,000 range, an area that served as a previous support and resistance zone. 

Bitcoin was changing hands at approximately $59,227 as of press time as prices continued to struggle, while volume delta remained negative, reflecting continued selling pressure during the period shown.

Solana price has extended its recovery to nearly 18% over the past week as record tokenized stock activity and growing institutional adoption helped the token outperform a crypto market still weighed down by macroeconomic uncertainty.

According to data from crypto.news, Solana (SOL) climbed from a local low near $64 on June 25 to an intraday high of $75.8 on June 30 before easing back toward the $73 region. Its rebound came while Bitcoin remained below $60,000 following another failed breakout attempt, allowing SOL to stand out as one of the few large-cap cryptocurrencies to post a strong weekly gain.

One catalyst behind the move came from Solana’s tokenized asset ecosystem. The network processed a record $1.36 billion in weekly tokenized equity volume, accounting for roughly 96% of all on-chain stock trading during the period. The surge in real-world asset activity increased on-chain transactions and demand for SOL as the network’s native gas token, adding a source of organic spot buying beyond speculative trading.

Institutional adoption also continued to build. Spot Solana exchange-traded funds managed by firms including Bitwise and Fidelity surpassed $1.06 billion in combined assets under management. Unlike spot Bitcoin ETFs, several Solana products distribute staking rewards to shareholders, giving investors an additional yield component alongside price exposure.

Additionally, MoneyGram joined the network as a validator while Toss Bank expanded its use of Solana infrastructure for cross-border stablecoin remittances, adding another layer of long-term network participation.

Real-world asset growth has boosted demand for Solana

The 1-day chart shows Solana rebounding sharply after defending support near $64 earlier this week. Price has reclaimed the 20-day simple moving average around $70.9 and is trading above it, while the Chaikin Money Flow has climbed back into positive territory at 0.17, suggesting capital has returned after weeks of persistent selling pressure.

Yet, SOL remains below the 50-day, 100-day and 200-day moving averages near $76.4, $81.0 and $94.6 respectively, leaving a heavy resistance band overhead.

The 4-hour chart paints a constructive short-term picture despite Tuesday’s pullback. Solana completed a strong recovery from the June 25 low and briefly pushed above the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level at $73.85 before reaching $76.49.

Momentum has eased since then, with the MACD histogram beginning to contract while the RSI has slipped to around 55 after briefly approaching overbought territory. Holding above the 0.618 Fibonacci level near $71.8 would keep the current recovery intact, while a sustained move above $76.5 could expose the next psychological resistance near $80.

Derivatives positioning suggests volatility may not be over. CoinGlass liquidation data shows dense short liquidation clusters between $74 and $76, helping explain the sharp squeeze that carried SOL to its weekly high. Another sizeable concentration of leveraged positions sits around the $72 area, while heavier long liquidation pockets extend toward $69 and $66.

A clean break above $76 could trigger another wave of short liquidations, whereas losing $72 may accelerate downside as leveraged longs begin to unwind.

Commenting on the market structure, well-followed analyst Michaël van de Poppe wrote:

“The flip is an easy buy opportunity for me, but overall, I think that the markets are looking to get more upside momentum and I would expect $120-130 as a potential target area in Q3/Q4 of this year.”

Another optimistic assessment came from fellow analyst Ardi, who argued Solana could be repeating Ethereum’s 2022 recovery pattern. He noted that reclaiming the 21-week exponential moving average near $85 would strengthen the case that SOL has already established its cycle low.

Support at $72 remains crucial for the bullish outlook

Despite Solana’s relative strength, macro conditions continue to present meaningful risks. Markets remain under pressure after the latest U.S. Core PCE inflation reading came in above expectations, reinforcing the possibility that the Federal Reserve could keep interest rates elevated for longer. Rising Treasury yields and continued demand for defensive assets have already weighed on cryptocurrencies, with Bitcoin struggling to regain the $60,000 level.

From a technical standpoint, failure to hold above the $71.8-$72 support region would weaken the current recovery and shift attention back toward $69 and the recent swing low near $64.

On the upside, reclaiming the cluster of moving averages between $76 and $81 would provide the first convincing signal that Solana’s recent rally is developing into a broader trend reversal rather than another relief bounce within its longer-term downtrend.

A Michigan judge has temporarily blocked Kalshi from allowing residents to place bets on sporting events while the state pursues claims that the platform is violating gambling laws. The decision, issued by Ingham County Circuit Court Judge Rosemarie Aquilina, is set to last 14 days and expires on July 13.

According to a court filing provided through a Thomson Reuters Law360 document, the court said Kalshi could be fined $120,000 for each day it fails to meet the order’s geolocation requirements. Aquilina also argued that Michigan residents risk “irreparable harm” by being “exploited by Kalshi’s sports betting operation masquerading as an investment opportunity.”

Key takeaways

• Michigan’s temporary restraining order halts Kalshi’s sports event betting for now and emphasizes compliance with geolocation requirements.
• Kalshi faces financial exposure under the order, with a cited $120,000-per-day penalty for noncompliance.
• The move follows similar court-ordered pressure in Nevada and ongoing litigation involving multiple prediction market platforms.
• Prediction market sports activity has surged during the FIFA World Cup, with record trading volumes reported by Dune.
• Regulatory scrutiny is intensifying as states and the CFTC challenge the legal classification of event contracts.

Michigan’s temporary block targets geolocation compliance

Ingham County Circuit Court Judge Rosemarie Aquilina granted a temporary restraining order against Kalshi, restricting the company’s sports betting-related offerings to Michigan residents. The court order is tied to geolocation rules, meaning the platform must ensure users are properly excluded or restricted based on location before the order runs its course.

Per the filing, failure to comply can trigger substantial daily penalties. The order’s short duration—14 days—signals an escalation rather than a final resolution, but it also adds immediate operational risk for prediction market operators that rely on broad national access.

Michigan’s action also fits into a wider pattern: regulators and courts across the US have been testing where prediction markets fall within gambling law frameworks, even when operators frame their products as market-like event contracts.

Kalshi joins a growing list of prediction market legal setbacks

This latest Michigan development adds to the pressure Kalshi has faced in other jurisdictions. The article’s referenced reporting notes that Nevada issued a temporary ban on Kalshi earlier in March, making Michigan the second state to impose a court-ordered restriction on Kalshi’s sports event contracts.

Beyond Kalshi, the broader prediction market sector is also under legal scrutiny. On June 17, Kentucky sued five prediction market platforms—including Kalshi and Polymarket—accusing them of operating unlicensed sports betting. According to the same coverage, more than a dozen other states have also taken prediction market operators to court.

Federal regulators are involved as well. The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has sued several states, arguing that event contracts already subject to federal oversight fall under the CFTC’s exclusive authority.

For users and traders, the practical effect is uncertainty about where and how these markets can legally operate. For operators, it raises compliance burdens and can force changes to access controls, product design, or both—especially when courts act quickly through temporary restraining orders.

World Cup momentum lifts prediction market volumes

While court cases continue to unfold, trading activity in prediction markets has remained active during major sporting events. The article points to sports betting activity rising in prediction markets since the start of the FIFA World Cup.

According to Dune data cited in the report, daily taker volume—a measure of contracts bought or sold by traders filling existing orders—reached a record $713 million on June 20. That high point came more than a week after the tournament started on June 11.

On a broader time basis, the report also cites Defirate data showing sports as the leading category on two of the largest prediction markets. Monthly sports betting volume rose 40% to $9.5 billion on Kalshi and increased 175% to $5.3 billion on Polymarket.

Separately, a referenced Bernstein report predicted that the 2026 FIFA World Cup would generate more than $3 billion in incremental sports betting handle and add between $5 billion and $10 billion in consumer prediction market volume. While that forecast focuses on a future tournament, the World Cup’s current trading lift provides evidence that such demand forecasts may be based on repeatable patterns rather than one-off hype.

From betting to crypto onboarding: new users find the chain

The surge in World Cup-linked trading is also tied, in at least one dataset, to crypto user discovery. The report states that Polymarket has acted as an onboarding layer for new cryptocurrency users, with about 60% of World Cup bettors interacting with the blockchain for the first time during their prediction market entry.

That figure comes from a Bitget Wallet study of 857,000 users, shared with Cointelegraph. The report adds that the “World Cup winner” contract alone generated over $3.5 billion in trading volume on Polymarket, based on platform data for the event.

These points matter because they underscore a key tension in the regulatory debate: prediction markets are often marketed as a trading experience, yet the mechanics frequently route users through blockchain-based infrastructure. Even when users treat the activity as entertainment or wagering, it can still create measurable crypto engagement—potentially increasing the visibility of these markets to regulators.

What to watch next

With Michigan’s restraining order set to expire on July 13 and new enforcement dynamics playing out across states, the next critical question is whether courts move from short-term blocks to longer remedies, and how prediction market platforms adjust geolocation and access controls under mounting legal pressure.

Key Takeaways

• Uber has terminated its autonomous vehicle collaboration with Alphabet’s Waymo in Phoenix, Arizona.
• The rideshare company is currently arranging a replacement autonomous vehicle partnership in Phoenix with an undisclosed provider.
• Waymo robotaxis continue operating through Uber’s platform in Austin and Atlanta markets.
• The partnership dissolution comes after Waymo issued a recall affecting approximately 3,900 self-driving vehicles due to software defects.
• Analysts maintain a Strong Buy rating on UBER stock with projected upside of 43.2%, though shares are down 8% in 2026.

Uber Technologies (UBER) shares declined 0.92% following confirmation that the rideshare giant has discontinued its autonomous vehicle collaboration with Alphabet’s (GOOGL) Waymo subsidiary in the Phoenix, Arizona market. Meanwhile, GOOGL shares rose 4.82%, though this movement doesn’t appear connected to the partnership termination.

Uber Technologies, Inc., UBER

The dissolution of the Phoenix arrangement concludes a collaboration initially established in 2023. That original agreement integrated Waymo’s self-driving vehicles into Uber’s ride-hailing ecosystem and food delivery operations.

According to a Waymo representative, the autonomous vehicles previously deployed in the Phoenix pilot program have been reintegrated into Waymo’s proprietary fleet. Phoenix residents can continue accessing these robotaxis exclusively through Waymo’s dedicated application rather than Uber’s platform.

Phoenix’s Role as First Test Market

The Phoenix market served as the inaugural testing ground for the Uber-Waymo collaboration. An Uber representative characterized the deployment as “an intentionally limited deployment,” involving approximately a dozen vehicles specifically allocated to this pilot program.

This relatively modest fleet size reflects the experimental nature of the Phoenix operation compared to Uber’s broader self-driving vehicle strategy. Despite terminating the Waymo arrangement, Uber maintains its commitment to autonomous vehicle services in Phoenix. The company is currently finalizing arrangements with an alternative AV provider, though the partner’s identity remains undisclosed.

Waymo’s robotaxis haven’t been completely removed from Uber’s service offerings. Customers in Austin and Atlanta can still access Waymo’s autonomous vehicles through the Uber application.

The partnership termination timing carries significance. This development follows Waymo’s recent recall of nearly 3,900 self-driving vehicles nationwide.

The recall targeted a software malfunction that potentially allowed vehicles to enter closed freeway construction areas and continue operating. Reuters identified the recall as contextual background for the Phoenix partnership dissolution, though neither organization has explicitly connected these events.

Uber’s Comprehensive Autonomous Vehicle Approach

Uber has been aggressively expanding its autonomous vehicle partnership portfolio beyond Waymo. Current collaborators include Rivian, Amazon’s Zoox division, China-based Pony.AI, and Croatian startup Verne.

Notably absent from Uber’s AV partner roster is Tesla. The rideshare platform has not established any robotaxi arrangements with Elon Musk’s electric vehicle manufacturer.

During the first quarter 2026 earnings conference call, CEO Dara Khosrowshahi provided growth metrics to investors. He reported that autonomous vehicle mobility trips facilitated through Uber’s platform surged more than 1,000% compared to the previous year.

Uber currently operates autonomous ride services across eight metropolitan areas. Management has outlined expansion objectives to reach up to 15 cities before year-end.

Wall Street analysts remain optimistic about Uber’s prospects despite the stock’s challenging 2026 performance. The Strong Buy consensus recommendation reflects 28 Buy ratings alongside only two Hold ratings.

The average analyst price target stands at $108.12, suggesting potential upside of 43.2% from present trading levels.

UBER shares have declined 8% year-to-date, contrasting with the favorable analyst outlook. The company has not provided a timeline for revealing its new Phoenix autonomous vehicle partnership.