South Korean crypto exchange Upbit announced on Aug. 5 that it will list Grvt’s GRVT token against the Korean won, Bitcoin and Tether. 

Trading is scheduled to begin at 17:00 Korea Standard Time. Deposits and withdrawals were expected to open through Ethereum within two hours of the notice.

Japan has established a dedicated Cryptocurrency and Stablecoin Division within its Financial Services Agency, elevating digital asset oversight to an independent department as the country continues expanding its crypto regulatory framework.

Japanese publication NADA NEWS reported that the Financial Services Agency announced on Aug. 5 that it will create a new Cryptocurrency and Stablecoin Division, with the organizational restructuring taking effect on Aug. 7.

The new department will operate under the Asset Utilization and Insurance Supervision Bureau, replacing the previous structure in which cryptocurrency-related work was handled through the Cryptocurrency and Blockchain Innovation Office and the Cryptocurrency Monitoring Office under the Comprehensive Policy Bureau’s Risk Analysis Division.

By establishing a standalone division instead of relying on office-level units, the regulator has formally elevated cryptocurrency supervision within its organizational structure.

Under the new division, the FSA will oversee three specialized offices. The Cryptocurrency Monitoring Office will continue supervising cryptocurrency exchange operators, while the newly organized Innovation Promotion Office and Digital Payment Planning Office will focus on financial innovation and digital payment policy.

The agency said the restructuring is intended to address new regulatory demands arising from financial digitalization while strengthening its ability to supervise financial institutions as technology continues evolving.

The restructuring follows Japan’s financial law overhaul

The organizational changes come only weeks after Japan approved sweeping amendments to the Financial Instruments and Exchange Act that reclassified crypto assets as financial instruments.

As previously reported by crypto.news, the legislation moved cryptocurrency oversight away from the framework established under the Payment Services Act, where digital assets had primarily been treated as payment instruments.

The amended law also introduced insider trading restrictions for crypto transactions, requiring market participants to refrain from trading based on material non-public information.

At the same time, certain crypto issuers became subject to annual disclosure requirements designed to improve transparency, while penalties for businesses operating without registration were significantly increased.

According to the legislation, the maximum prison sentence for operating an unregistered cryptocurrency business will increase from three years to 10 years, while the maximum financial penalty will rise from 3 million yen to 10 million yen once the provisions take effect.

Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama previously said the reforms are intended to strengthen market fairness, transparency and investor protection while expanding access to growth capital as financial markets continue changing.

Cryptocurrency regulation has continued expanding

The creation of the new division also follows several other policy initiatives that have moved cryptocurrency regulation closer to Japan’s traditional financial markets.

During a financial conference in Tokyo in July, Liberal Democratic Party lawmaker Seiji Kihara said Japan’s current two-times leverage cap on cryptocurrency trading is too restrictive and limits market liquidity and price discovery, according to Nikkei.

Kihara, who heads the Liberal Democratic Party’s Next Generation AI and On-Chain Finance Project Team, said relaxing the leverage limit forms part of the country’s ongoing digital asset reforms, although no implementation timetable has been announced.

Separately, the amended financial law established the legal basis for introducing a separate tax framework for cryptocurrency gains, including an effective 20% tax rate and a three-year loss carry-forward deduction. Previous reporting indicated those tax provisions are expected to take effect in 2028 after supporting regulations are completed.

The same reform package has also advanced preparations for domestic cryptocurrency exchange-traded funds. Earlier reporting by Nikkei said the Financial Services Agency is preparing revisions to investment trust rules that could allow Bitcoin ETFs once the legal framework is finalized.

Stablecoin oversight arrives as enforcement increases

The creation of a dedicated Cryptocurrency and Stablecoin Division also comes as Japanese regulators continue enforcing registration requirements against offshore cryptocurrency exchanges.

Earlier this month, Bitget announced it would stop accepting new users from Japan immediately before introducing account restrictions from Nov. 1 and automatically closing any remaining positions on Dec. 31 as it exits the market.

The exchange’s withdrawal followed multiple warnings issued by Japan’s Financial Services Agency beginning in 2023 over allegedly providing cryptocurrency services without local registration. In 2025, the Kanto Local Finance Bureau also warned BTG Technology Holdings Limited, identifying it as operating under the Bitget name, over unregistered online over-the-counter derivatives solicitation.

Alongside enforcement activity, Japan has continued promoting digital asset development through separate policy initiatives. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi previously described Web3 as part of the country’s national innovation strategy, while lawmakers have continued advancing measures covering taxation, investment products and market conduct under the country’s evolving cryptocurrency regulatory framework.

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Robinhood has filed to raise up to $200 million for its second publicly listed venture fund, offering retail investors access to seed-stage startups while introducing performance fees that were absent from its first fund.

According to regulatory filings reviewed by multiple publications, Robinhood Ventures Fund II (RVII) plans to offer 7.6 million shares at $25 each, while Robinhood will separately sell another 400,000 shares. The fund is expected to begin trading on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker RVII on Aug. 13, subject to regulatory approval.

Goldman Sachs is serving as the lead bookrunner for the RVII offering, while Citigroup, JPMorgan, UBS and Wells Fargo are acting as joint bookrunners. According to the filing, the subscription window is scheduled to close on Aug. 12, one day before the fund is expected to begin trading on the NYSE.

Robinhood moves from late-stage startups to early funding

Unlike Robinhood Ventures Fund I, which concentrated on later-stage private companies such as Databricks, Stripe, OpenAI and SpaceX, the new vehicle has been structured around much earlier investments. 

Regulatory documents show RVII will launch with holdings in about 80 private companies and will primarily invest in seed-stage businesses linked to startup accelerator Y Combinator, including current participants, former participants and companies founded by YC alumni.

Robinhood Ventures head Sarah Pinto said the new fund is intended to let retail investors participate in a company’s growth before it reaches the public markets instead of waiting for an initial public offering.

The filing also notes that Robinhood has permission to reference the Y Combinator name, although the accelerator does not sponsor, endorse or accept responsibility for the fund or its investment performance.

Y Combinator has backed more than 5,000 startups since 2005, with those companies collectively reaching a reported valuation of more than $1.3 trillion and producing over 100 unicorns, according to information cited in the filing.

Robinhood venture fund introduces new fee structure

The second fund also changes how investors will be charged.

While Robinhood Ventures Fund I did not impose a performance fee, RVII will charge a 2% annual management fee alongside a 20% incentive fee on realized gains. Regulatory disclosures cited by The Defiant estimate the fund’s annual expense ratio at roughly 4.18%.

The prospectus further describes the investment as speculative, warning of substantial risk of loss. It also states that shareholders will not have redemption rights, meaning investors cannot redeem shares directly with the fund before liquidation.

Robinhood’s first venture fund raised about $658.4 million after launching in March. Although the portfolio focused on more mature private companies that the company’s finance executives previously described as carrying lower risk than early-stage ventures, the fund still dropped roughly 16% on its first trading day before later recovering about 30%.

Rich Aberman, portfolio manager for RVII and a former Y Combinator founder and visiting partner, said the firm’s long-term objective is to make retail investors a regular presence on seed and Series A capitalization tables.

Expansion continues beyond crypto trading

The latest fundraising effort comes as Robinhood continues adding new investment products alongside its traditional brokerage and cryptocurrency businesses.

As crypto.news previously reported, the company recently secured registration with the UK’s Financial Conduct Authority, allowing its UK subsidiary to offer crypto services under the country’s existing anti-money laundering framework before a new crypto authorization regime begins rolling out.

Robinhood said the approval positions the company to launch cryptocurrency services in the UK after previously confirming plans to expand into the market during its second-quarter earnings report.

The company has also continued building products outside spot crypto trading. During the second quarter, Robinhood launched Robinhood Chain, expanded Stock Tokens to more than 120 countries, introduced Robinhood Earn and completed its acquisition of WonderFi, even as crypto transaction revenue declined to $100 million from the previous year.

Financial results released last week showed total net revenue increased 32% year over year to $1.31 billion, supported by growth across options, equities and event contracts. Robinhood reported that event contracts generated $156 million in revenue during the quarter, making them its fastest-growing transaction business.

Prediction markets remain another area of growth

At the same time, Robinhood has continued expanding the infrastructure behind its prediction markets business.

Back in July, The Wall Street Journal reported that Robinhood had discussed adding Crypto.com’s event contracts to its prediction markets hub. Neither company confirmed that an agreement had been reached, and the report said the discussions could still end without a finalized deal.

Robinhood has said it intends to work with multiple exchanges instead of relying on a single supplier. Its platform already distributes contracts through Kalshi, ForecastEx and Rothera, the exchange it operates through a joint venture with Susquehanna International Group.

Earlier this year, Bernstein raised its Robinhood price target and projected the company’s prediction-market revenue could reach approximately $1.7 billion by 2028. The research firm also estimated about $586 million in revenue from the business during 2026, supported by increased trading activity and expanding exchange partnerships.

For years, bitcoin BTC$64,196.50 trounced stocks and most other assets, and supporters pointed to that outperformance as proof it was the best store of value around. Now, one chart suggests that edge may be fading.

That chart is the S&P 500-to-bitcoin ratio. It measures how much bitcoin it takes to buy the index. Today it takes roughly 0.12 BTC, versus more than 300 BTC in 2012. The ratio moved largely lower in a steep downtrend since BTC’s inception in 2010, with the 200-week simple moving average, a barometer of long-term trend, acting like a ceiling holding a ball underwater. There were brief instances of stocks outperforming BTC, lifting the ratio, but never beyond that average.

Until now.

In recent weeks, the ratio hasn’t just topped the 200-week average, it’s established a firm foothold above it, clearly visible on the far right of the chart above. It’s not isolated to the S&P, either. The Nasdaq/BTC ratio is showing the same first-ever crossover above the 200-week average.

Arthur Hayes, the former co-founder of BitMEX, is warning that today’s surge in AI infrastructure spending could sow the seeds of a renewed credit crunch—one he believes may ultimately send Bitcoin to highly elevated levels.

In a Tuesday blog post, Hayes argued that the boom is being treated by investors as a high-growth technology earnings story, when he views it more like leveraged real estate. He expects lenders to fund aggressive data-center and power buildouts, only for a slowdown in AI-related capital expenditure to reveal weaker borrowers. From there, Hayes suggested, a government liquidity response could reintroduce significant risk assets into the broader market, with Bitcoin potentially rallying far beyond current ranges.

Key takeaways

• Hayes frames AI infrastructure expansion as a “credit story” rather than an “earnings story,” drawing a parallel to the 2008-style credit cycle.
• He expects banks to finance data-center construction and believes the exposure will become clearer when AI spending growth cools.
• Hayes said Bitcoin could churn in a range of $60,000 to $70,000, with downside risk to $50,000 before any credit-driven recovery.
• He forecast Ether could reach $5,000 by year-end and said his firm Maelstrom plans to accumulate while selling out-of-the-money ETH puts.
• Recent reporting highlights the scale of future AI data-center lease commitments, underscoring the leverage embedded in the buildout.

Hayes’ “AI is real estate” credit-cycle warning

Hayes’ latest argument centers on how the AI buildout is financed. In his view, spending on data centers and power infrastructure is not the same as investing in product-driven technology growth. Instead, he characterizes it as a leveraged commitment that resembles property finance—where cash flows depend on demand staying strong and credit remaining available.

That distinction matters because credit cycles can turn quickly when expectations are met too early or when capital expenditure slows. Hayes’ thesis is that lenders will continue extending funding while projects are still ramping, but problems may surface after AI capital expenditures weaken and borrowers face difficulty servicing obligations. In that scenario, he expects liquidity measures from policymakers to follow—potentially injecting fresh capital into financial markets.

From 2008 comparisons to Bitcoin’s speculative path

Hayes directly compared the dynamic to 2008, calling the AI boom a “credit story like 2008 and not an earnings story like 2000.” He stressed that the key driver for crypto, in his framing, would not be fundamental “earnings” growth from the AI sector itself, but rather the liquidity response that could follow a credit deterioration.

In the meantime, he outlined a near-term technical-style range for Bitcoin. Hayes said BTC could remain between $60,000 and $70,000, with potential downside to $50,000, before any recovery tied to the credit cycle and government liquidity response. He also floated the prospect that, if the cycle plays out as he expects, Bitcoin could eventually be driven to $1 million or higher.

It’s important to note that Hayes’ scenario is inherently speculative. The argument depends on a specific chain: overbuilding in AI infrastructure → weaker borrowers → a credit crisis → policy liquidity support → renewed inflows into risk assets like Bitcoin. While the general linkage between credit conditions and market liquidity is a recurring theme in macro finance, the timing and magnitude Hayes suggests remain uncertain.

What changes, and how Hayes positions within the market

Hayes’ outlook includes both a macro forecast and an options-and-positioning angle. He predicted Ether (ETH) would reach $5,000 by year-end and said Maelstrom intends to build a “significant position” while simultaneously selling out-of-the-money ETH put options. The structure signals a willingness to hold exposure while collecting premium that could cushion downside—though the payoff depends on where ETH trades relative to the strike prices and volatility conditions.

His thinking also builds on earlier public comments about how AI competition and capital allocation could affect crypto liquidity. On May 13, Hayes said US-China competition in AI would encourage bank lending and fiat creation—an environment he argued could benefit Bitcoin. On June 4, he previously said he sold HYPE and NEAR after warning that major AI-related listings could divert capital away from crypto.

Taken together, the throughline is that Hayes sees crypto’s near-to-medium term direction as sensitive to macro and liquidity flows, not just to crypto-native fundamentals. Where AI spending is framed as a credit lever, the opportunity for crypto comes from the knock-on effect: whether the broader system expands liquidity—or contracts it under stress.

Why leverage in AI infrastructure is getting attention

Hayes’ caution about financing risk comes as reporting has begun to quantify the scale of commitments behind the AI buildout. According to Reuters, Microsoft, Meta, Oracle, Amazon, and Alphabet have committed about $1.09 trillion to leases that have not yet commenced, largely for data centers. Reuters noted that this figure cannot be treated as a straightforward debt total because it reflects undiscounted payments spread across multiple years.

Still, Reuters highlighted that the commitments are nearly four times the roughly $285 billion in lease liabilities already recognized by the same companies. The gap matters because off-balance-sheet commitments can become a stress point if operating assumptions weaken, especially if the buildout timing and actual demand for capacity diverge.

Reuters also pointed to uneven strain across firms. A separate Reuters analysis cited that Oracle’s debt was about 4.3 times its earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, while Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft, and Meta had ratios below one. Reuters further quoted S&P Global analyst Andrew Chang, who said Oracle’s data-center leases run for 15 to 19 years, while customer contracts last no more than five years—creating a mismatch that could increase risk if customers do not renew or expand on the expected schedule.

For crypto investors tracking Hayes’ thesis, the relevance is straightforward: if the AI infrastructure ramp becomes a drag on credit and financing markets, it could translate into broader liquidity constraints. Conversely, if policymakers respond aggressively to maintain stability, that same liquidity could later flow back into speculative assets—where Bitcoin has historically captured attention during risk-on phases.

Going forward, market participants will likely watch whether AI infrastructure spending and financing conditions begin to show signs of strain, and whether policy-makers move to support credit markets if they do; Hayes’ case hinges on that transition from construction optimism to a liquidity-driven response. Until there is clear evidence of a slowdown in capital expenditure or credit stress in the real economy, his BTC range and $1 million-plus scenario remain a high-volatility narrative rather than a confirmed forecast.