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Coinbase Stablecoin Revenue Hits $1.35B: Bloomberg Sees 7x Growth Potential

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Coinbase Stablecoin Revenue Hits $1.35B: Bloomberg Sees 7x Growth Potential

Bloomberg Intelligence forecasts that Coinbase’s stablecoin revenue could jump sevenfold from its current $1.35 billion annual run rate.

Analysts point to a structural shift where stablecoins move beyond crypto trading collateral to become a primary rail for mainstream global payments.

Key Takeaways

  • Coinbase generated approximately $1.35 billion in stablecoin revenue last year, accounting for 19% of its total income.
  • Bloomberg Intelligence projects a potential 7x surge in this figure as regulatory frameworks drive payment adoption.
  • The expansion hinges on the codified GENIUS Act, merchant integration via Stripe, and volume growth on the Base network.

Why Bloomberg Sees a Sevenfold Surge in Coinbase Stablecoin Revenue

Bloomberg Intelligence analysts, including Paul Gulberg, argue that the market is underestimating the utility phase of the stablecoin lifecycle.

While Coinbase reported $1.35 billion in stablecoin revenue for 2025, roughly 19% of its total top line, Bloomberg models suggest this figure is merely a baseline.

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The forecast arrives despite Coinbase noting a net loss of $667 million in Q4 2025. The exchange’s revenue share agreement with Circle, the issuer of USDC, remains a bright spot, generating $364 million in the fourth quarter alone.

Bloomberg’s 7x multiple assumes that as interest rates stabilize, the sheer velocity of payment transactions will eclipse interest income as the primary revenue driver.

This thesis aligns with broader market data showing stablecoin transaction volumes hitting $33 trillion in 2025.

With USDC accounting for $18.3 trillion of that flow, the asset has already begun to decouple from pure crypto trading volumes.

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The scale is big enough that the traditional finance sector can no longer ignore the fee generation potential.

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How the GENIUS Act Is Accelerating Stablecoin Mainstream Adoption

The regulatory landscape shifted dramatically with the signing of the Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for US Stablecoins (GENIUS) Act in July 2025.

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By creating a federal regime for payment stablecoins, the legislation provided the legal certainty required for large-scale institutional participation.

The Act explicitly bars issuers like Circle from paying interest to holders, a move backed by the banking lobby to protect traditional deposits.

While the regulatory framework for digital assets remains complex, the GENIUS Act has effectively greenlit stablecoins for commercial usage.

This clarity allows Coinbase to market USDC settlements to Fortune 500 companies without the overhang of legal ambiguity that plagued the sector in previous years.

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Stripe Integration and Base Network Expansion Drive Payment Ambitions

Operational catalysts are already live, fueling the Bloomberg projection. The integration of USDC into Stripe’s global payment rails has reopened crypto acceptance for millions of merchants, creating a direct funnel for transaction volume.

Simultaneously, Coinbase’s own Layer-2 blockchain, the Base network, is lowering the barrier to entry for micro-transactions.

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Much like other scaling solutions, the Base network reduces gas fees to fractions of a cent, making dollar-denominated transfers economically viable for daily coffee purchases.

High-throughput networks are critical here, as the Bitcoin Lightning Network demonstrated with its $1 billion monthly volume milestones, low-fee environments rapidly attract payment liquidity.

By routing these payments through Base, Coinbase captures value twice: once through the underlying sequencer fees and again through its revenue share on the growing supply of USDC required to service this commerce.

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What a 7x Revenue Jump Would Mean for the Stablecoin Market

If Bloomberg’s 7x scenario plays out, stablecoin revenue would arguably become Coinbase’s most valuable business line, overshadowing its volatile trading fees.

This shift would fundamentally re-rate the stock, moving it from a cyclical crypto exchange play to a steady fintech payments processor. However, risks remain substantial.

The banking lobby is currently pushing the CLARITY Act in the Senate to close loopholes that allow exchanges like Coinbase to pass rewards to customers.

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If new language bars these rewards, consumer adoption could slow.

Analysts at Monness Crespi maintain a sell rating, warning that optimistic projections effectively ignore the political target painted on stablecoin yields.

So, for Bloomberg’s 7x to be possible, Coinbase must defend its rewards program while successfully migrating user activity from holding USDC to spending it.

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Crypto World

Argentina Blocks Polymarket as Crackdown on Prediction Markets Expands

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Crypto Breaking News

Court Orders Remedial Reflex

In Buenos Aires, a court directed regulators to impose tight controls of access. The telecom regulator ENACOM also liaised with the internet companies to shut down the site. Google and Apple were also asked to take the app out of their stores. The reason why these actions are taken is to restrict access to the users in the country.

This has caused regulators to tighten their belts due to apprehension caused by activity associated with inflation data. It was reported that the platform made predictions of Argentina’s inflation rate in February before it was officially released. Besides, authorities reported that the prediction was altered minutes before publishing. This chain of events triggered the need to further research how the platform functions.

Researchers came to the conclusion that the platform served as a web-based betting platform. Regulators also said it enabled the users to participate in wagering without licenses. Also regulators were worried about access by minors. These results resulted in even tougher steps to be taken against the platform.

Latin America’s Crackdown Continues

The move is in line with other actions taken by Colombia. Polymarket was later blocked in the country due to similar complaints raised against unlicensed gambling services. Therefore, Argentina became the second country to ban the platform in the region. Such a trend underscores the developing regional integration in the area of regulatory enforcement.

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Regulatory examination does not just end at Latin America; it extends to other markets. It has been reported that websites like Kalshi have been involved in court cases in the United States due to allegations of unregulated betting services. It has also been reported that unpaid wagers have been involved in cases of dispute that are associated with geopolitical activities. Regulators and legal authorities have paid more attention to such developments.

Polymarket has also addressed criticism by eliminating some of the markets. Additionally, the site has recently shut down a market for nuclear risk forecasts after being pressured by the publicity. More so, the shutdown was done through the high geopolitical tensions. This is in response to efforts to deal with concerns as the regulatory pressure persists. Argentina has imposed a nationwide ban on Polymarket following the discovery of unlicensed betting operations and a ban on platforms. The relocation is in line with the larger international desire to control prediction market sites and restrict illegal gambling solutions.

Risk & affiliate notice: Crypto assets are volatile and capital is at risk. This article may contain affiliate links. Read full disclosure

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US Lawmakers Introduce Bill to Crack Down on Prediction Markets War Bets

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Law, Congress, United States, Prediction Markets

Two Democratic lawmakers in the US Congress have introduced legislation in response to “government corruption” over bets on prediction markets platforms.

In a Tuesday announcement, Texas Representative Greg Casar and Connecticut Senator Chris Murphy said they had introduced the Banning Event Trading on Sensitive Operations and ​Federal Functions (BETS OFF) Act after several Polymarket accounts made “highly unusual bets” that a war between the US and Israel against Iran would begin.

Murphy said on March 4 that it was likely that people with “inside information” of US President Donald Trump’s plan to bomb Iran had made the bets.

“We shouldn’t live in a country where someone sitting in the situation room making decisions about whether to invade or to bomb, decisions about war and peace, life and death, that those decisions could be driven by the fact that they have hundreds of thousands of dollars riding on the decision,” said Casar.

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Law, Congress, United States, Prediction Markets
Source: Representative Greg Casar

The bill is the latest twist in US lawmakers’ efforts to crack down on prediction market platforms and accounts allegedly using insider information to profit from government actions. Last week, California Senator Adam Schiff introduced the DEATH BETS Act to prevent prediction markets platforms from listing events contracts related to war, terrorism, assassination and individual deaths.

Related: Arizona AG files charges against Kalshi over ‘illegal gambling‘

Platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi offer bets on a variety of outcomes, including sporting events and US politics. However, users betting on the specifics of the US-Israel conflict with Iran have ignited controversy in many areas of government. On Monday, a military correspondent with the Times of Israel said that he had received death threats over his report of the date when an Iranian missile had struck Israel, all “in order to resolve a prediction on Polymarket.”

War-related bets still live on Polymarket

As of Tuesday, Polymarket still offered users the opportunity to place bets on the outcomes of several potential decisions in the US-Israel conflict against Iran, including on whether the US would send ground forces into the country, when a ceasefire might happen, and changes to Iranian leadership.

“The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society,” said Polymarket in a note on Middle East markets. “That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and [X, formerly Twitter] could not.”

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Kalshi, in contrast, offered event contracts related to the Iranian conflict but not on specific military actions, such as if the country might reach a nuclear deal with the US and whether Trump or other elected officials might visit Iran.

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