In this video, Gary Thomson explores the key September central bank meetings and whether policy divergence could impact major FX pairs.

👉 Key topics covered:

✔️ ECB Decision — 10 September — Markets are pricing a high probability of a 25-basis-point hike. Will the ECB signal that further tightening is still possible?

✔️ Fed Decision — 16 September — Although markets lean towards a hold, renewed inflation pressure could bring a hike back into focus.

✔️ BoE Decision — 17 September — UK inflation remains elevated, but slowing wage growth and a softer labour market could keep the Bank Rate unchanged.

✔️ BoJ Decision — 18 September — Markets are increasingly considering a 25-basis-point hike. Could tighter Japanese policy provide lasting support for the yen?

✔️ FX Divergence in Focus — EUR/USD, GBP/USD, EUR/GBP, USD/JPY, EUR/JPY could all react as markets reassess the expected paths of interest rates.

With four major central bank decisions in just eight days, it may be the changes in expectations — not only the decisions themselves — that drive the FX moves.

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Bitcoin (BTC) climbed above $75,000 on Friday, continuing its strongest rally in months. The flagship cryptocurrency is on track to record its best week in over two years as improving regulatory sentiment, lower bond yields, and a $3 billion short squeeze push prices higher.

The flagship cryptocurrency surged over 7% on Wednesday and another 5.36% on Thursday, decisively crossing $70,000 and closing at $73,011. The price is up 3.42% during the ongoing (Friday) session at $75,411.

Short Squeeze and Macroeconomic Headwinds Power Bitcoin Rally

The flagship cryptocurrency is up almost 8% over the past 24 hours and nearly 20% over the week, and remains on course for its highest weekly gain in over two years. The broader cryptocurrency market has also pushed higher, with Ethereum (ETH) up nearly 5%, Ripple (XRP) up 17%, and Solana (SOL) up over 5%. 24-hour trading volume has risen to $137.28 billion, while the overall cryptocurrency market cap rose 6.79% to $2.53 trillion. The most telling sign of shifting market sentiment is the Fear and Greed Index, which jumped to 69, firmly in “greed” territory.

The rally began on Wednesday (August 19), when the US Treasury announced it would double the buyback operations for the 10- to 20-year and 20- to 30-year nominal coupon operations from $2 billion to $4 billion per operation. The announcement came after 30-year bond yields hit 5.337%, the highest since 2007. Yield dropped to 5.192% following the announcement. The effect of these buybacks on the markets is almost immediate, improving liquidity conditions across the market. Rachel Lucas, an analyst at BTC Markets, stated,

“The real driver was the US Treasury doubling long-dated bond buybacks, which pulled long yields lower and lifted risk appetite broadly. Nothing has rewritten Bitcoin’s long-term case, but nothing’s rewritten its volatility either.”

President Trump’s renewed calls to Congress to advance the CLARITY Act, following a meeting with top crypto industry executives, also buoyed market expectations of a favorable regulatory environment in the US.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs Could Dictate Momentum

Meanwhile, some analysts believe ETF and spot demand will play a major role in dictating whether the breakout holds. Nicolai Søndergaard, senior research analyst at Nansen, stated that while forced short covering fueled Bitcoin’s rally, rising institutional demand and better liquidity conditions had already put the market on an upward trajectory. Søndergaard highlighted stable open interest to show that the rally was being driven by more than just traders adding fresh leverage.

“Bitcoin’s move above $70,000 reflects a combination of forced short covering, renewed institutional demand and a more supportive liquidity backdrop.”

Meanwhile, spot Bitcoin ETFs added over $600 million on Thursday, the highest since May, and marking their fourth consecutive day of inflows. Bitcoin ETFs have registered $1.61 billion in inflows so far this week, with the figure expected to climb higher on Friday as institutional investors buy strongly. Søndergaard believes spot trading and ETF inflows will determine whether BTC can build support above $70,000 and push higher once forced buying reduces. BTC’s price action has pushed it above the 20-week and 200-day moving averages and the estimated short-term holder cost basis, putting buyers in profit.

Nick Ruck, LVRG Research Director, believes the US Treasury’s announcement to double bond buybacks has improved institutional investor sentiment, helping to reverse months of substantial outflows.

However, he cautioned that only progress on the CLARITY Act, a clear course of action on interest rates, and broader access to crypto through retirement accounts could help establish a positive institutional trend.

“Sustained inflows are unlikely without additional confirmation. Until those catalysts develop, inflows will likely remain temporary rather than structural.”

Bitcoin Momentum Stretched

However, momentum is stretched, with the one-hour RSI around 78 and the four-hour RSI above 85. Positive funding rates also indicate that leveraged long positions were picking up. If BTC holds above $70,000, it could extend its rally higher, while a drop to around $69,000 could indicate a retest rather than a reversal.

White House Pushes for Crypto Legislation

President Trump met with top crypto executives from Coinbase, Ripple, Gemini, Chainlink Labs, Kraken, among others. Following the meeting, Trump urged Congress to approve the CLARITY Act, establish clear market rules, and divide market oversight between the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Bitget Wallet Research Analyst Lacie Zhang believes the Trump administration must show lower borrowing costs, progress in high-growth industries, and a robust financial market before the November midterms.

The SEC’s Regulation Crypto Assets also provided a policy catalyst, offering crypto companies and startups exemptions under specific circumstances. However, Zhang warned that failure to advance the CLARITY Act, conflict of interest controversies, and waning regulatory momentum could sour investor sentiment.

Disclaimer: This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.

Coinkite has released a major security upgrade for its Coldcard hardware wallets aimed at strengthening seed-phrase generation by forcing users to contribute unpredictable entropy. The change is designed to ensure private keys remain hard to predict even if one of the device’s randomness sources underperforms.

In a Thursday blog post, Coinkite announced firmware 5.6.1 for the Coldcard Mk4 and Mk5, and 1.5.1Q for the Coldcard Q. The company said affected users must upgrade immediately and—critically—replace any existing seed phrases before moving funds.

Key takeaways

• Coinkite’s new firmware changes how Coldcard generates seed phrases by mixing user-supplied entropy with multiple device randomness sources.
• For newly generated wallets, the firmware requires user input via at least 65 keypresses with unpredictable timing (or equivalent die/coin-rolling actions).
• Even after upgrading, previously generated seed phrases remain vulnerable and must be replaced with new seeds before migrating funds, Coinkite says.
• The update also adds safeguards around USB handling, transaction verification timing, hardware RNG checks, and boot-time integrity testing.
• Separately, Coinspect launched Unlukey, a free tool intended to help detect wallet addresses potentially linked to weak-seed generation.

Seed phrases now rely on more user unpredictability

At the center of Coinkite’s update is a shift in seed generation. According to the company, newly generated seeds must incorporate user-supplied entropy through interactive actions, including at least 65 keypresses with intentionally unpredictable timing. Coinkite also describes alternative entropy contribution methods: 50 rolls of a six-sided die or 128 coin flips.

That input is then combined with randomness from several parts of the device, including secure elements and the wallet’s hardware random-number generator (RNG). Coinkite frames the redesign as defense-in-depth: by requiring user entropy and mixing it with internal sources, the resulting private keys should remain unpredictable even if one device entropy source fails or is otherwise compromised.

Importantly, Coinkite’s guidance is not limited to upgrading. The company warns that existing seed phrases do not become safe just because the firmware is updated; users must generate new seeds and replace the wallet’s backing recovery phrase before migrating funds.

Coinkite adds transaction and USB safeguards

The new firmware follows an earlier July 31 update that Coinkite says already corrected the seed-generation failure for newly created wallets. In its Thursday announcement, Coinkite describes the latest release as the result of additional security review over the subsequent weeks, expanding protections beyond seed generation.

One element targets how transactions are processed when a Coldcard is connected to a potentially compromised computer. Coinkite says the firmware re-verifies transactions immediately before signing—an approach intended to counter a theoretical attack involving a compromised USB port. In other words, the device aims to confirm that what it signs is still what it expects, right up to the moment it produces a signature.

Coinkite also describes new hardware RNG checks and a boot-time test designed to confirm the wallet is using the intended hardware pathway. Beyond randomness integrity, the update restricts USB downloads to the device’s most recent output and requires an encrypted session, reducing opportunities for manipulated data to be fed to the wallet during the workflow.

Finally, the firmware blocks certain Bitcoin signature hash modes by default—specifically those that could allow transaction outputs to remain modifiable under the affected conditions Coinkite references.

Impact from the Coldcard exploit remains significant

While Coinkite focuses on preventing additional exposure, the ongoing consequences of the Coldcard exploit continue to shape the security landscape. Galaxy Research reported that confirmed losses associated with the exploit reached 1,778 Bitcoin, worth about $112 million, in an Aug. 14 report. Galaxy’s assessment is linked to a broader figure compilation, and DefiLlama data aggregated in the same context ranks the Coldcard hack as the third-largest cryptocurrency exploit of 2026.

These figures underline why seed-generation hardening and secure transaction flows matter to users: even hardware-wallet protections can be undermined if randomness used for key material is weak or if signing operations can be influenced through connectivity or timing issues.

Weak-seed detection tools enter the ecosystem

Alongside firmware fixes, at least one blockchain security firm is working on software approaches to identify potential victims of weak seed generation. Coinspect revealed Unlukey, a free public tool for identifying wallet addresses that may have been generated from weak seed phrases.

In a Friday X post, Coinspect said the first iteration of Unlukey focuses on reproducing known weak seed generation patterns and checking whether public addresses appear in the affected dataset. While this does not automatically prove that any given address belongs to an exposed wallet, the tool is positioned as a way to narrow down exposure for individuals and analysts who are investigating risks related to the Coldcard incident.

Context on the underlying weakness comes from TRM Labs, which said in an analysis that a firmware bug from March 2021 weakened seed randomness on some Coldcard wallets. TRM Labs reported that the issue reduced key strength from 128 bits to 40 bits, making keys “brute-forceable without physical access.”

Coinspect’s decision to build an address-level detection method suggests the broader industry takeaway from the Coldcard episode: even when hardware vendors issue patches, secondary tooling can help the ecosystem identify which wallet outputs and addresses may be most at risk based on how seed generation was implemented in the past.

Readers should watch how users apply Coinkite’s guidance—especially the requirement to replace existing seed phrases before moving funds—and whether address-detection tools like Unlukey continue to expand coverage as more information about weak-seed generation patterns is validated.